btc-arbs.com - Update: dead HYIP, Refund progress: BTC-arbs still doing refunds

[NLNico]

Quoting so it's on top of new page:

Ok, it reminded me about "Poker by Proxy" all a long and I did a search for you guys:

Poker by Proxy
"Poker by Proxy" was a ponzi few months ago that did the exact same thing. They also gave daily results of "their poker players". These were just like btc-arbs daily reports with a whole story about what happened in the poker world. This is why many people believed them. After a few months they run away with the money.

Backup site:
https://web.archive.org/web/20131203020947/https://pokerbyproxy.com/
note:
- same type of design/style
- same type of info
- same page names (!!) like /join.html, /results.html, /login.html, /results/2013/12/04.html - as a webdev I can tell you that exactly the same page names on a site is rare - most have at least "register" instead of "join" or no .html suffix. That specific result page /results/2013/12/04.html is extremely rare - almost impossible. You can check this on archive.org by hovering over the link.
- same HTML structure, like (NOTE: /assets/img/ same URLs)
pokerbyproxy:

Code:

<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/web/20131205235008im_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/img/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/web/20131205235008cs_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/css/style.css"/>
<script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20131205235008js_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/js/jquery-1.10.1.min.js">

btc-arbs:

Code:

<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/assets/img/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/css/style.css" />
<script type="text/javascript" src="/assets/js/jquery-1.10.1.min.js">

and on both sites:

Code:

<div class="f_clear"></div>

and other same classes like "footer_wrap", "footer_nav", etc.

You can check this on archive.org

The members area:
http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/1kY24FUzqS4/maxresdefault.jpg
note:
- identical members menu


Do a bit of search on "poker by proxy" and you will see how similar that website was. They officially only run away with the money 3 months ago. Looks like the same owner started btc-arbs after that.


Once again: DO NOT DEPOSIT MONEY ON BTC-ARBS, it is obviously a ponzi and 99% sure its the same as "Proxy by poker". Get your money out as long as you can - unless you like a ponzi.

FreeJack2k2, "a web developer re-purposed a past design" for a ponzi and now this site? Do you know how many web developers there are? The odds of this being a coincidence are impossible small.

"Poker by Proxy" also easily withdrew money and gave good support. Until the day they ran away with the money > and then it's too late.

[1714142420]

1714142420

[1714142420]

1714142420

[1714142420]

1714142420

[MegaHustlr]

I dont think its another pozi scam, I dont see Newbies Hyping this on yet

if it looks like a ponzi, it probably is one

Wait is this a ponzi or not??? Im confuseled.

[FreeJack2k2]

Well, I have been on the blockchain explorer following my Bitcoin and seeing where it leads. I see a mix of small amounts being sent (presumably payouts) along with pretty large amounts at a time, which looks like it supports the idea that they are conducting arbitrage. I haven't found any addresses sitting on a bunch of inactive coins, yet.

I'm still not convinced that because they are using a recycled site design, they are related...the developer didn't even need to tell them they were doing so. The functions these guys need are identical, so why not? Anyway, as I recommend to everyone else, I don't risk more than I can afford to lose. Bankrolling poker players isn't my idea of an investment, but Bitcoin arbitrage is a real thing, it actually works if you have enough money to play with, so it seems way more plausible. The fact that the creators of the site aren't out there pimping it with interviews on crypto sites and banner ads, and promo videos (the way Poker By Proxy did), in my mind anyway, lends them a little more credibility.

I'm not trying to talk anybody into it, naturally it's risky...but just giving my reasoning. It seems more plausible and legitimate than financing poker players.

[NLNico]

FreeJack2k2, "a web developer re-purposed a past design" for a ponzi and now this site? Do you know how many web developers there are? The odds of this being a coincidence are impossible small.

"Poker by Proxy" also easily withdrew money and gave good support. Until the day they ran away with the money > and then it's too late.

I am just quoting myself because you are not replying to what I am saying but just making up other excuses.

[FreeJack2k2]

FreeJack2k2, "a web developer re-purposed a past design" for a ponzi and now this site? Do you know how many web developers there are? The odds of this being a coincidence are impossible small.

"Poker by Proxy" also easily withdrew money and gave good support. Until the day they ran away with the money > and then it's too late.

I am just quoting myself because you are not replying to what I am saying but just making up other excuses.

I don't know the circumstances. Maybe these guys had used that site or seen it and decided it had the functions they wanted in their own site. Poker By Proxy's site mentioned the web developer in their FAQ. So if I were someone who wanted a site that worked that way, I would go to the guys who made it.

The fact is, you are making a pretty big assumption to claim with certainty that they are the same people. The expertise required of the two pursuits (poker and Bitcoin arbitrage) is completely different. I wouldn't expect them to be as familiar with the workings of the Bitcoin market as their daily posts reveal them to be, having just come from running a failed poker ponzi scheme only a few months ago. The fact that the two sites share a common web developer is not a smoking gun, to me. I may end up being wrong, time will tell. It's a risk. Anyone who trades on BTC-e (or most trading platforms) is taking the same risk, nobody even knows who runs that exchange or where they actually live, etc...

[stitch]

Quoting so it's on top of new page:

Ok, it reminded me about "Poker by Proxy" all a long and I did a search for you guys:

Poker by Proxy
"Poker by Proxy" was a ponzi few months ago that did the exact same thing. They also gave daily results of "their poker players". These were just like btc-arbs daily reports with a whole story about what happened in the poker world. This is why many people believed them. After a few months they run away with the money.

Backup site:
https://web.archive.org/web/20131203020947/https://pokerbyproxy.com/
note:
- same type of design/style
- same type of info
- same page names (!!) like /join.html, /results.html, /login.html, /results/2013/12/04.html - as a webdev I can tell you that exactly the same page names on a site is rare - most have at least "register" instead of "join" or no .html suffix. That specific result page /results/2013/12/04.html is extremely rare - almost impossible. You can check this on archive.org by hovering over the link.
- same HTML structure, like (NOTE: /assets/img/ same URLs)
pokerbyproxy:

Code:

<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/web/20131205235008im_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/img/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/web/20131205235008cs_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/css/style.css"/>
<script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20131205235008js_/https://pokerbyproxy.com/assets/js/jquery-1.10.1.min.js">

btc-arbs:

Code:

<link rel="shortcut icon" href="/assets/img/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="/assets/css/style.css" />
<script type="text/javascript" src="/assets/js/jquery-1.10.1.min.js">

and on both sites:

Code:

<div class="f_clear"></div>

and other same classes like "footer_wrap", "footer_nav", etc.

You can check this on archive.org

The members area:
http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/1kY24FUzqS4/maxresdefault.jpg
note:
- identical members menu


Do a bit of search on "poker by proxy" and you will see how similar that website was. They officially only run away with the money 3 months ago. Looks like the same owner started btc-arbs after that.


Once again: DO NOT DEPOSIT MONEY ON BTC-ARBS, it is obviously a ponzi and 99% sure its the same as "Proxy by poker". Get your money out as long as you can - unless you like a ponzi.

FreeJack2k2, "a web developer re-purposed a past design" for a ponzi and now this site? Do you know how many web developers there are? The odds of this being a coincidence are impossible small.

"Poker by Proxy" also easily withdrew money and gave good support. Until the day they ran away with the money > and then it's too late.

I'd like to thank you guys for bringing up the archive.org poker website. Being human I tried to believe the arbitrage thing is real, because they really invest time to make it look legit and following arbitrage opportunities myself it felt quite manageable what they do to me. But now I withdrew my whole invest before it's too late (including the earnings). The archive.org proof was what I needed to see things clear.

[danosphere]

Just withdrew my deposits and profits. I did make a return, but at this point there are too many poker ponzi similarities for me to lose my bitcoins! I'd rather take the small loss in arb gains vs losing my BTC entirely. I can confirm I did recieve my entire investment + profits via withdraw about 2hrs after submitting the withdrawal.

[FreeJack2k2]

Definitely, caution is the best policy and don't risk more than you can afford to wave goodbye to. That's a good policy in any kind of investing. I am willing to stick with it and see how they do over the long haul...it's only been a little over a month. Reports like today's make me believe that they actually are doing arbitrage trading, the things they are saying about the market that directly affect their ability to conduct arbitrage are easily confirmable...unlike a poker site where you pretty much just have to take their word for it, how the card games went.

I acknowledge the possibility that it's a scheme, but I also think there's an equal chance it's legitimate. Time will tell, I guess.

[alyons]

I have also received my principal as well as a modest 8% return on it, I intend to leave the other 60% gain I have there for the chance of a major upside, or nice bitch story for the forums later. I appreciate all the cyber sleuthing folks have done. I have also done quite a bit of research on a few crumbs to follow, and under all the layers it does look pretty fishy. But for now, they are performing well, and if I inject another investment, like all investments, it is a risk - buyer beware - but this is paying, withdrawing, earning, etc. So far so good.  

There are very common design patterns between that poker scam site and this one, I've been trying to find an HTML/CSS theme out there that shares the comment patterns and naming conventions, and I just don't have a positive hit so far. That is a red flag, if they had more brains they would probably use WP or Drupal to run the reporting/community side, and due to that, I hesitate to continue endorsing or spreading the word. There are red flags, and thanks to the help of NLNICO shedding light on that, I don't think I would have started to roll up my sleeves and investigated further. (I am a software developer, 20 years+ now).

I have enough of a balance that I will certainly be looking every day at its growth, but I sure feel good knowing I have my principal and minor return back!

I wish everyone the best on it!

[zerem]

Even professional HYIPers (those who make money by bailing out of ponzi schemes in time) are blogging about it. That should be another warning sign. For example:

http://ex-admin.com/btc-arbs-com-review/

[CC23]

Withdrew my investment and profits without problems - but not depositing again, it isn't worth the risk to me.

[Qwiner]

Withdrew my investment and profits without problems - but not depositing again, it isn't worth the risk to me.

Yup, I also did my withdrew, & it's successful, within 2 hours. But during the process, I was nervous, because I was worried that i might lost my BTC.

Well, this is how I feel, when I did a deposit or withdrawal of BTC at any website


For now, I just leave the min. withdrawal amnt in my investment account. That is the amount I am prepare to lose, it is my profit amnt any way.

[FreeJack2k2]

I asked about the similarity to the Poker site in question and how it has made people skittish, here's the response I received:

The "script" that we are using is available commercially from our web developers and may have been used by other sites in the past. I suspect that this is the reason that the coding is similar to the site you mention. With that said, we have no affiliation to any other site, and have never heard anything about the site that you mention.

If users are uncomfortable, it makes little difference to us. Users are free to withdraw whenever they want.

So, take that for what it's worth. They seem unconcerned with whether people invest with them or not...combined with the fact that they don't advertise, I feel like they're doing what they say they're doing and probably have been, for a while. Having more investors allows them to operate on a larger scale...but they'll probably be doing it, with or without said investors.

For what it's worth, I'm reducing my principal investment but staying in it, to see how it performs over the next month or two...at which point I will probably put more into it, again.

[ferguson]

Users...not clients.
Users...not investors.
Users...not individuals.
Users...not depositors.

If we are uncomfortable, it "makes little difference to them"?
Hmm...that makes me uncomfortable.

[msc]

So, take that for what it's worth. They seem unconcerned with whether people invest with them or not...combined with the fact that they don't advertise, I feel like they're doing what they say they're doing and probably have been, for a while. Having more investors allows them to operate on a larger scale...but they'll probably be doing it, with or without said investors.

They have an ad running on bittit.info, just FYI.  Not that Bittit is a big site, but it's something.

[acid_rain]

Ok..this being my first post on here. I hope I don't get banned for the long post. Even though that would be epic! I haven't had time to even set the signature yet. I just rushed in & joined so I could post on this particular thread. I'll post a summary of what I'm gonna say for those who don't want to go into the gory details & math of why it cannot keep on compounding indefinitely.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY:

Basing your assumptions on a couple of commercially available scripts & design is not gonna cut it. The owner could be very well genuine and in that case you would be creating mass panic for nothing i.e. making people withdraw their investments without real reason. It's best to reason it out in a logical fashion and understand the underlying concepts as to why it cannot work forever instead of just putting it on a feeling that you have that it's somehow a ponzi scheme.

The simple reason why it cannot keep compounding is simple. There is a ceiling and that ceiling is in the design of ฿ itself. ฿ is finite: 21 million coins of which only around 12m are in circulation. Let's forget the 12m for now. Since there is a capping of 21m coins the arbitrage system is invariably flawed in the sense that it cannot keep on growing indefinitely.

Having said that... arbitrage can be applied on the ฿/USD market only up unto the point where there isn't enough trading volume to buy what you're selling and to sell what you're buying (The good ol' concept of demand & supply).

So for example let's say you want to be able to buy $666,000 worth of bitcoins on a lower-priced exchange to be able to sell them instantaneously on the other one right? (approx 1,000฿). Assuming you already have the 1,000฿ on the higher priced exchange ready to be sold. Inevitably you will run into a couple of problems. One is that would become so big that you would be driving the market price of ฿ upwards/downwards on your own by buying all available coins for trading in that 24hr volume thus on the lower-priced exchange you would be driving the price up, whilst on the higher-priced one where you intend to sell them you would be driving it down thus killing the spread that your hoping to arbitrate and make profit off-of. In real terms only around 4,000 coins are traded in a 24hr volume on any of the biggest exchanges. So you are limited by the capping which is dictated by the volume of trade. You could not possibly overcome that. By the time you manage to buy all 1,000฿ you will face 2 problems.

1) Time has passed so prices have begun to change i.e. leg risk
2) Now that you've acquired 1,000฿. Let's assume the prices haven't varied much and you can still make a profit. how on earth are you going to sell them all at once? There isn't that much demand either on the other exchanges, at least not at one go. Thus meaning that you're taking a very high risk in your trading, which completely defeats the purpose of arbitrage

This type of arbitrage would work on an inefficient slow-moving market which its currency pair that it is trading ideally has infinite reserves (not a finite one like ฿) be it virtual or fiat, because theoretically or on paper at least you could go on arbitrating with a compound interest effect forever and capitalizing on the spread.

That is the theory behind it, however below I ask some fundamental questions about the btc-arbs accountability issues & banking practices.

END OF SUMMARY
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE NITTY GRITTY

I'm going to present my own thought process, the math of it and also ask some very basic questions that are at the foundations of this venture (which is interesting, yet shady). I haven't seen anyone talking about it so I thought I should highlight the math of it and please correct me if and where I'm wrong.

At first, if you think about it, it seems like a clever idea/investment opportunity and thus the arbitration itself seems viable due to the inefficiencies of a slow-moving market.......well yes.......only up until a certain point though. The point where the volume of bitcoin being traded on the markets is saturated and thus you cannot sell and/or buy anymore. At that point it becomes almost impossible to make a profit. Also having a limited amount of ฿ in circulation you cannot expect that this system can go on forever. This type of arbitration can only happen in an inefficient market with new moneyflow pumping in the system at both ends of the trading currency pair i.e. like for example Forex markets where fiat reserves are infinite (even though FOREX has achieved high levels of efficiency due to technology).

However what btc-arbs is doing here is just moving coin from one exchange to sell it to a higher priced one. At some point it has to become saturated and it won't be easy anymore to move more coins than the volume of trading per se' unless there is a pendulum effect reversal of the exchanges i.e one of the currency pairs gets devaluated rapidly on one exchange (like what happened on Mt.Gox. That was an arbitrageur's dream if only Mt.Gox were processing their bitcoin withdrawals quickly enough). There arbitrageurs get to profit due to the spread. This means that the system will indeed slow down and cap itself. More so if this process could go on indefinitely, btc-arbs would end up buying most of the bitcoin in circulation and as such there would be no market left for bitcoin anymore because it would have been all bought & resold progressively by btc-arbs and its investors. The volume of daily trade is surely not that big enough to be able to handle those amounts. Thus there is a ceiling you can reach, and then you would be such a big of a whale that you could move entire markets with just a click of a button if you just want to. LOL I jest and I'm also digressing. Apologies!

Having said that though, the idea has its own merits for a short while obviously. In fact what will happen is that the percentage of profit will start becoming so low that it's hardly noticeable whilst still the threshold of how much you can arbitrate depends on the volume of trade in that 24hrs. You can't force people to buy and You also can't force people to sell if they don't want to.

Few things to consider when investing with btc-arbs are, how trusthworty is the guy/team running btc-arbs. Let's say you invest 1 bitcoin and after patiently waiting 6 months without withdrawing (with a rough estimation over February's data/results, the average compounded interest is at 1.8%. It will probably change as we get more data to work out statistics on), you would have a nice 24.8 bitcoins on your btc-arbs account. The workings for this is simple i.e. 1฿ * 1.018 ^ 180 = 24.808฿. Note the 180=6months in days since the interest is compounded and paid daily. Are you sure he's not gonna run away with the coin once he/they start seeing some big transactions?

Another really basic point to consider is that once he sells his coin on the higher priced exchange, he has to use his bank account as an intermediary and to move fiat to other exchange/s. This of course takes time and thus to be able to produce a daily profit he cannot spend all the money at one go. You have to divide the spending of fiat by the days that the money transfers from one bank account to his, and then from his account to the other exchange. This is the only way to keep a daily profit going. (I'm assuming here that he probably can't just send it directly to the other exchange due to policies of exchanges not allowing you to withdraw unless the bank account you're withdrawing to has your name.).

More importantly (the next part more as a question rather than a fact) if he doesn't have a corporate banking account, his bank might start investigating what type of transactions he's doing back and forth on his own personal accounts. They might even freeze it for a while (either temporarily or permanently), cause you are not supposed to use your own personal banking account as an exchange medium of monetary value. That's why exchanges exist in the first place...for trading.

This is easily visible from PayPal's recent limiting & permabanning of accounts en mass involved in selling bitcoin over ebay. The reason they were given was simply that PayPal accounts cannot & should not be used as a medium of exchange of monetary value as it is not regulated to perform as an exchange of currencies, be they virtual or not. I think I saw a post somewhere on this forum on this topic.

So once his transactions to and from the bank account start becoming big...the bank will surely start looking into what's happening i.e. start checking for fraud and get their risk-mitigation analysts involved.

I think I saw that he also uses Ego Pay, Perfect Money and STP for fiat transactions. By compliance of law in their hq's jurisdiction, they also have finance laws to abide by. Unless you're some form of business account you have a high risk of being stopped and asked to provide details of what you're using that account for. If like PayPal they just then go on and paste you a paragraph from their Terms & Conditions for account usage...you're basically f'ed. It only takes one of them limiting you and you're out of a good portion of your fiat for a very looong time.

It is very risky indeed, and until the team involved in btc-arbs explain step-by-step about how they're managing other people's finances, and what precautions they're taking so as to NOT put people's finances at risk themselves, then you are all left in the dark wondering if it's just a nice little number you have in a very poor and bare-looking members area or else if it's safe to withdraw it at anytime with peace of mind, even after leaving it compounding for 6 months. Remember compounding makes money only if you let it sit there & do its job i.e. compound.

To say the least it is a good idea, but it btc-arbs is lacking in many areas including accountability & professionalism. I would say they are transparent though since their support seems helpful & genuine enough in their answers. However what's really in question here is their integrity on this thread thus for this reason they should be accountable and show the investors the transaction ledgers. Daily blobs of vague one-paragraphs each, fed uni-directionally to the investor without a chance to check what they're actually doing on a real-time basis is definitely not wise use of your money in my book. (Notice I did not use the term 'bad investment', cause the notion of trading on slow-moving inefficient markets is intrinsically great). If they want to win people's trust they should at least provide a platform where people can see the daily transactions performed and thus the accountability issues would be solved a modo di dire. I'm allowing some room for a learning curve. Everything can be improved upon with time.

Also how would you know if for example they're making more then they're claiming and just giving you a smaller piece of the pie i.e. 1.8% on average daily interest. You don't even know at what times the transactions were made. Was it when there was the biggest spread or not? The arbitrage opportunities of today (06/03/14) were around 3.5% at best and after reducing the fees from the profit it would be around 2.5% considering he's trading such a small volume of trades for now compared to the market, and yet they claim 1.00% turnaround on the results page? If you people are investors you're always trying to mitigate risk. I don't know how in this case after a careful analysis your spidy-sense on risk factor is not bleeping red with car alarms going off in the background.

Until we get some accountability on transactions made from btc-arbs which can be verified, it's not worth handing over your coin to an unknown variable....literally! This is not a question of btc-arbs wanting to remain anonymous. It's a question of investors being able to see what btc-arbs is doing with their coin and fiat.

Also...to the guy who said that you should only invest what you're prepared to lose, I say this. YES but only in an accountable and well-trusted environment. Which apparently the latter seems to be unachievable these days.

Fraudsters can capitalize by getting the minimum 0.05฿ deposit from thousands of people & then run away with the coin. 0.05฿ * 3000 people = 150 coin. And that's only the minimum deposit. Where is this guy from btc-arbs? They should be posting here and to their investors explaining themselves, if they really want to arbitrate in a professional manner.

I say let them show accountability of which bitcoin addresses they are depositing to, to their investors, so that this can be all verified on the blockchain & for the fiat transfers investors should be able to see the screenshots with dates & amounts & to which exchange the money went to clearly visible. Until then it only remains just a good idea. I say if they don't implement accountability then don't invest in them, and let's create something like it ourselves which offers more professionalism instead of daily blobs of 1-sentenced paragraphs.
 
What say you?

Thanks for taking the time to read this

[Qwiner]

Wow, someone signing up @ bitcointalk.org, because of my thread,  . I think this forum owe me a thank you, for getting one new member.
Welcome, acid_rain, I must admit, this is the greatest forum, I have ever signed up.

Here's my opinion about your post:

"Basing your assumptions on a couple of commercially available scripts & design is not gonna cut it. The owner could be very well genuine and in that case you would be creating mass panic for nothing i.e. making people withdraw their investments without real reason. It's best to reason it out in a logical fashion and understand the underlying concepts as to why it cannot work forever instead of just putting it on a feeling that you have that it's somehow a ponzi scheme. "

OK, I must admit I am lazy, & I am looking for a quick way to judge whether something is reliable or not. Besides, I was only making a small investment, $50-100 max.. I am not planning to invest pass the $100 mark.


Yes, Thank you so much acid_rain. I am not a trader myself, I don't know how trading really works. U seemed to be a really good & experienced trader for stocks/securites

I certainly don't how to trade securities or stocks. I only start this buying/selling thing with BTC. Eventhough I closely watched the stock exchange prices constantly, I am still so bad at trading, I just don't know when is the best price to sell or buy. I often buy at the relatively high price & sell @ the low price, for a particular time period

[NLNico]

Basing your assumptions on a couple of commercially available scripts & design is not gonna cut it.

Dude, look at the bigger picture. This is a very legitimate finance business with 10 employees and an office in Geneva (one of the world cities in the finance world - very expensive offices) and their website is an exact copy of a ponzi site.

Still no alarm bells?


But great you add some reasons why this is a ponzi from a trading aspect.

[bigtimespaghetti]

This thread has been great. It's introduced me to the murky world of HYIP... I always like finding an obscure area of the internet.

I still have no idea if the site is legit, but so far I've had no problems withdrawing.

I did have the link in my sig, but after some thought removed it as I couldnt be responsible for other people losing their money if the worse were to occur.

[nlsupernova]

This thread has been great. It's introduced me to the murky world of HYIP... I always like finding an obscure area of the internet.

I still have no idea if the site is legit, but so far I've had no problems withdrawing.

I did have the link in my sig, but after some thought removed it as I couldnt be responsible for other people losing their money if the worse were to occur.

Yeah, didnt know about that part of the internet either, these hyip ponzis. A little dark alley with all kinds of weird shit going on lolz.
Seems profitable if you know how to play the system. But risky as hell, cant trust anyone..