Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +97043 units

[buwaytress]

Palace took points, but we don't do well at all, do we, with recent picks and luck. Club World Cup also feels like a poor place to dig but I have a thing for unknowns, and Urawa are, if anything, that. 20/1, those kind of numbers have to be irresponsible not to take!

100 units at Sportsbet on Urawa Red Diamonds to WIN vs City @21.35. Other odds: 19.5. Units advantage: 185

Running advantage after 49 bets: +5051 (+185)
All-time cumulative: +94,911
Running units after 48 bets (3W|45L): -2612 (-100)

[1714759996]

1714759996

[1714759996]

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[KTChampions]

Palace took points, but we don't do well at all, do we, with recent picks and luck. Club World Cup also feels like a poor place to dig but I have a thing for unknowns, and Urawa are, if anything, that. 20/1, those kind of numbers have to be irresponsible not to take!

100 units at Sportsbet on Urawa Red Diamonds to WIN vs City @21.35. Other odds: 19.5. Units advantage: 185

Running advantage after 49 bets: +5051 (+185)
All-time cumulative: +94,911
Running units after 48 bets (3W|45L): -2612 (-100)

Absolutely my thoughts, even before I got acquainted with the odds. I love multi bets with big odds but this single bet looks really good on its own. City, given their ongoing failures, may not particularly want to play an extra game in the final - even if formally it is a title and a trophy, we all know that this is a friendly competition that interests little less than anyone 

I read a little about the underdog - the most expensive Urava football player is the central defender from Denmark Scholz (2 million euros), while the total cost of the squad is about twenty million, 2x10 = 20, if Scholz is the most expensive then the entire squad is counted and not just the players main (11 people) squad 

If we think about it from this point of view, the odds of 20 look like the bookmakers’ greed and Urawa’s overestimation. But still, it seems to me that there is value in your pick, in the end, even if it turns out to be a successful pick, you will still be in the minus, so we can assume that before this the randomness “didn’t give you enough” and everything is about to change.

[buwaytress]

^ Yeah, complete alignment in our estimation -- I really like the terms you use, bookmaker greed. Perhaps inaccurate technically but from a different perspective of economics, rational. City looked good from the reports but I still think the unknown factors of teams you've never played, particularly with a team still "immature" in ex-Europe competition, it was a great bet to take regardless of the outcome.

I'll take a break until the weekend but yes, this season's picks will likely see me in the red. I want to offer an excuse that I didn't include some great winners I did have, including specials, etc. But this thread must retain its integrity and count only bets I actually suggested here.

All good things must come to an end, and all strategies fail, but I'm happy to continue showing the true purpose: value. Thank you for following

[buwaytress]

A quick one in here to sign off pre-Christmas. Actually had a lot more bets for some reason, but none really worthy of this thread (Hammers favs against United??).

Lecce aren't exactly who I'd back in a game against Lautoro's fearsome boots but their current league position (and failure to lose against Milan a few games back) suggests 10/1 is tentative value.

100 units at Sportsbet on Lecce to WIN vs Inter @13.65. Other odds: 12.50. Units advantage: 115
Bet ID: 6586afeb441188000144ef7d

Running advantage after 50 bets: +5166 (+115)
All-time cumulative: +95,026
Running units after 49 bets (3W|46L): -2712 (-100)

[KTChampions]

^ Yeah, complete alignment in our estimation -- I really like the terms you use, bookmaker greed. Perhaps inaccurate technically but from a different perspective of economics, rational. City looked good from the reports but I still think the unknown factors of teams you've never played, particularly with a team still "immature" in ex-Europe competition, it was a great bet to take regardless of the outcome.

I'll take a break until the weekend but yes, this season's picks will likely see me in the red. I want to offer an excuse that I didn't include some great winners I did have, including specials, etc. But this thread must retain its integrity and count only bets I actually suggested here.

All good things must come to an end, and all strategies fail, but I'm happy to continue showing the true purpose: value. Thank you for following

I could be wrong, but it seems to me that in previous seasons you had a much larger number of bets, so those results can be considered more relevant than the current ones (by the way, I also remember there were long periods of 20+ games without a single victory). When playing with large odds, you need to check many outcomes to know the strength of the strategy, so stop being lazy and register more bets here 

As for strategies “in general”, then probably yes, most likely they all die without exception - either the market becomes more efficient (everyone switches to these strategies and they lose their meaning simply for economic reasons) or bookmakers adapt to them. As far as I know, in different periods the value shifted from bets with low odds to bets with high odds and vice versa. I’m afraid that now we live in the conditions of neural networks, big data that probably covers everything that can be covered in information terms and the accuracy of bookmakers is steadily increasing and it is either impossible or very difficult to find value.

But there is always the opportunity to move into such murky areas as live betting, what do you think? If I remember correctly, you were not into this type of betting (at least on an ongoing basis). I follow sporting events mainly in text form, so the quotes are always in sight, and in my opinion everything there is far from accurate on the part of the bookmakers (maybe because they mainly pay attention to the cash flow? = they simply balance between the bets that the crowd makes) .

[buwaytress]

I could be wrong, but it seems to me that in previous seasons you had a much larger number of bets, so those results can be considered more relevant than the current ones (by the way, I also remember there were long periods of 20+ games without a single victory). When playing with large odds, you need to check many outcomes to know the strength of the strategy, so stop being lazy and register more bets here 

Correct. Since last season I've been having pretty difficult personal situations that no longer allow me time to study games, compare books, and do a bit of research. Betting frequency and volume down, and quality of games put here also not as good as I'd prefer. I still think it's a great strategy -- big value that eventually pays off and a season sample of <100 games, as this and last one will be, are not enough to demonstrate the strategy.

But there is always the opportunity to move into such murky areas as live betting, what do you think? If I remember correctly, you were not into this type of betting (at least on an ongoing basis). I follow sporting events mainly in text form, so the quotes are always in sight, and in my opinion everything there is far from accurate on the part of the bookmakers (maybe because they mainly pay attention to the cash flow? = they simply balance between the bets that the crowd makes) .

Absolutely! If I didn't have the life I did (say, if I were single and with few obligations) I'd actually be live-betting plenty. Odds can be extremely skewed a different periods. Liverpool going down a goal? Value. 0-0 at HT? Odds increase for ALL outcomes. Like you say, books use automation and risk management, but we're watching the flow and ebb of games.

[buwaytress]

It's post-Christmas and we arrive at a weird intersection of reality where Everton are not even 6/1 to beat City -- ordinarily I say poor value but the Toffees are actually playing decent football, with "us against the world" mentality spurring them thanks to the 10-point deduction. But to mix things up, I'm tagging on Fiorentina to get decent odds.

100 units at Sportsbet on Everton and Fiorentina to win @13.93. Other odds: 12.80
Units advantage: 113
Bet ID: 658c317b44118800014d9243

Running advantage after 51 bets: +5279 (+113)
All-time cumulative: +95,139
Running units after 50 bets (3W|47L): -2812 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Sheffield are going to lose, but if they play 30 times, could they win at least once? I think so!

No time to place bet ID here but I'll edit this post with full numbers but 100 units on Blades to win @30/1++ odds it is on!

Edit: Heh, a loss. But for one moment when it was 0-0, Blades with more shots on target...

Sheffield Utd to WIN @32.08. Other odds: 28.
Units advantage: 408
Bet ID: 6589ff6044118800012ca59a

Running advantage after 52 bets: +5687 (+408)
All-time cumulative: +95,547
Running units after 52 bets (3W|47L): -3012 (-200)

[buwaytress]

Now I missed putting 2 consecutive winning bets here totaling over 16/1 against Arsenal, so I need to remember to be disciplined heh.

But I'm not forgetting the cup tie in France, Toulouse are a curious outfit if you want, beating Loverpool and LASK, even drawing with a really good USG team despite playing with 10 men... it suggests they prefer doing their best in cup ties?

May 2024 prove to be good for this thread!

100 units at Sportsbest on Toulose to WIN vs PSG @12.0. Other odds: 11.50. Units advantage: 50
Bet ID: 659578744411880001ed6914

Running advantage after 53 bets: +5737 (+50)
All-time cumulative: +95,597
Running units after 52 bets (3W|47L): -3012 ()

[buwaytress]

Right, no luck in French cup so I'm throwing my hat into Italia tonight. Juventus are quietly plodding along, yes behind Inter but they will be happy they're under the radar and without pressure. Could that also mean an early exit in Coppa?

100 units at Sportsbet on Salernitana to WIN vs Juventus @13.10. Other odds: 12.
Units advantage: 110
Bet ID: 6596cb2a4411880001d3e56f

Running advantage after 54 bets: +5847 (+1100)
All-time cumulative: +95,717
Running units after 53 bets (3W|50L): -3112 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Two bets here today. First to London where I'm hoping some Fulham craziness returns in the FA Cup 3rd round, you know there are always upsets and while the forward line are clicking for the Cottagers, I like the odds of an upset. Meanwhile, Inter take on Verona tomorrow and I do want them to stutter post New Year, why not?

100 units each at Sportsbet on:
Rotherham Utd to WIN vs Fulham @13.00. Other odds: 12.5. Bet ID: 659823c344118800013e9747
Verona to WIN vs Inter @18.00. Other odds: 17.2. Bet ID: 659824454411880001963f61
Units advantage: 130

Running advantage after 56 bets: +5977 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +95,847
Running units after 54 bets (3W|51L): -3212 (-100)

[buwaytress]

So that didn't happen for either pick (but hey, it came close enough, especially with Verona until they got a man sent off).

Here's something different: Liverpool without Salah are fair underdogs vs Arsenal tomorrow but I still think they're worth it at 35/10. It's not quite my kind of odds but if we pin on their next game vs Bournemouth, we have a solid result. Shall we up the ante on this?

400 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal and Bournemouth @5.43. Other odds: 5.20. Units advantage: 92
Bet ID: 659823934411880001db5086

Running advantage after 57 bets: +6069 (+92)
All-time cumulative: +95,939
Running units after 56 bets (3W|53L): -3412 (-200)

[KTChampions]

So that didn't happen for either pick (but hey, it came close enough, especially with Verona until they got a man sent off).

Here's something different: Liverpool without Salah are fair underdogs vs Arsenal tomorrow but I still think they're worth it at 35/10. It's not quite my kind of odds but if we pin on their next game vs Bournemouth, we have a solid result. Shall we up the ante on this?

400 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal and Bournemouth @5.43. Other odds: 5.20. Units advantage: 92
Bet ID: 659823934411880001db5086

Running advantage after 57 bets: +6069 (+92)
All-time cumulative: +95,939
Running units after 56 bets (3W|53L): -3412 (-200)

I hope I don't spoil luck by saying that most of the "work" here has already been done  
In my opinion it is quite strange that Liverpool were rated so low given their historical ability to play well in cups, so it was definitely a value bet even despite the fact that Arsenal was catastrophically unlucky with the realisation of scoring chances and if Havertz had been able to score first, it is unclear how the game would have turned out.

[buwaytress]

For today, we go easy, Wigan should lose but United are in fear zone, they simply can't fail. That produces miracles. It's ridiculous the odds but I take it anyway!

100 units at Sportsbet on Wigan to beat United @13.65. Other odds: 12.90. Units advantage: 75

Running advantage after 58 bets: +6144 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +96,014
Running units after 56 bets (3W|53L): -3412 ()

I hope I don't spoil luck by saying that most of the "work" here has already been done  
In my opinion it is quite strange that Liverpool were rated so low given their historical ability to play well in cups, so it was definitely a value bet even despite the fact that Arsenal was catastrophically unlucky with the realisation of scoring chances and if Havertz had been able to score first, it is unclear how the game would have turned out.

That's okay. Even if I lose, I'll be fine somewhat. It's definitely a strange one, 33/10 was an overestimation of Liverpool playing only Konate in recognised defence position. Arsenal actually had a 2.97 xG but failed to score -- story of their season but we capitalise on poor finishing. I couldn't be happier.

[arallmuus]

For today, we go easy, Wigan should lose but United are in fear zone, they simply can't fail. That produces miracles. It's ridiculous the odds but I take it anyway!

100 units at Sportsbet on Wigan to beat United @13.65. Other odds: 12.90. Units advantage: 75

Well Im glad that Manchester United didnt actually lose to Wigan because it would make my day bad for the rest of the week but honestly 0-2 against Wigan while Ten Hag uses his main squad is not really what I expected. On top of that, it was a goal from Dalot and a penalty from Bruno. I was kinda expecting Holjund, Garnacho or Rashford to score today

I hate to say this but Manchester United really need to patch up the frontline otherwise I dont see how we'll make it to top 4 by the end of the season

[buwaytress]

Well Im glad that Manchester United didnt actually lose to Wigan because it would make my day bad for the rest of the week but honestly 0-2 against Wigan while Ten Hag uses his main squad is not really what I expected. On top of that, it was a goal from Dalot and a penalty from Bruno. I was kinda expecting Holjund, Garnacho or Rashford to score today

I hate to say this but Manchester United really need to patch up the frontline otherwise I dont see how we'll make it to top 4 by the end of the season

I get how you feel. My team not winning generally sets my tone for the rest of the week. It's not that bad as I say but a great win somehow ensures I wake up on the right side of bed.

Rashford assisted, so don't feel too bad. Garnacho really did need to find better passes, though, Hojlund deserves better service if he is to at least continue his good cup scoring runs. And that means... playing Sancho-quality players (but he's off now isn't he?).

Team needs an overhaul, not so much of personnel but mentality. That's all. Ten Hag underestimated the English game, Ajax had fun toying with Eredivisie but you need mental strength, fearlessness and brute force to augment talent on English pitches.

[buwaytress]

We return to our old hunting grounds. City are back at their best -- and with that, the odds are back above 15/1. Burnley will be lucky to come away with a point, but since we're interested in blips, we're going to have to take this bet tonight, aren't we?

Got to make full use of Haaland's absence!

Don't forget we also had this bet, win: 400 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal and Bournemouth @5.43. Other odds: 5.20.

100 units at Sportsbet on Burnely to WIN vs City @23.00. Other odds: 21.
Bet ID: 65ba69f1c2ff400001533143
Units advantage: 200

Running advantage after 59 bets: +6344 (+200)
All-time cumulative: +96,214
Running units after 58 bets (4W|54L): -1792 (-100 + 1720)

[buwaytress]

That did not go wellm but for the odds, I'd take it again and again. Next up for City isn't one I'll take though, only 7/1 for a team not even in the top half? No thanks.

Liverpool, however, face Arsenal once more as the underdogs. It was a beautiful win last time out with over 4/1 odds. Tomorrow it's only 3/1 but we actually feature a stronger lineup so maybe that explains the odds.

I'm still confident of the win and 3/1+ is value so let's try and get Liverpool get us over the line again?

500 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal @3.26. Other odds: 3.1.
Units advantage: 75
Bet ID: 65bd1b18c2ff40000130efd0

Running advantage after 60 bets: +6419 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +96,289
Running units after 59 bets (4W|55L): -1892 (-100)

[KTChampions]

That did not go wellm but for the odds, I'd take it again and again. Next up for City isn't one I'll take though, only 7/1 for a team not even in the top half? No thanks.

Liverpool, however, face Arsenal once more as the underdogs. It was a beautiful win last time out with over 4/1 odds. Tomorrow it's only 3/1 but we actually feature a stronger lineup so maybe that explains the odds.

I'm still confident of the win and 3/1+ is value so let's try and get Liverpool get us over the line again?

500 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal @3.26. Other odds: 3.1.
Units advantage: 75
Bet ID: 65bd1b18c2ff40000130efd0

Running advantage after 60 bets: +6419 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +96,289
Running units after 59 bets (4W|55L): -1892 (-100)

I agree about City, the odds for Brentford to win at 7 is just ridiculous. The team literally scores a point per game on average and they are so greedy not to give odds of 10+? 
I'm not sure about betting on Liverpool vs Arsenal away, because Arsenal are also good. I think here you are acting as a fan and not as a bettor 
The most important thing is that the game does not end in a draw (in favor of City).

[buwaytress]

I agree about City, the odds for Brentford to win at 7 is just ridiculous. The team literally scores a point per game on average and they are so greedy not to give odds of 10+? 
I'm not sure about betting on Liverpool vs Arsenal away, because Arsenal are also good. I think here you are acting as a fan and not as a bettor 
The most important thing is that the game does not end in a draw (in favor of City).

Yeah, bookie greed, and I'm surprised as the markets must be so lopsided now on City to win and inch closer to the top with games in hand. Full strength squad. And yet the odds aren't really dropping? I still put some freebet money on Brentford, for a boosted odds of just about 83/10.

Impossible to find value these days really with City.

You were right in the end, as were the oddsmakers. Arsenal were the better team, fully deserved win. I put myself in the hole with that one didn't I?