2020 Democrats

[KonstantinosM]

Pete Buttigieg suspends his campaign - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-drops-out.html

Honorable move imo.  Nice run Pete.

I wonder if Biden offered him anything.

Maybe the VP spot.

Biden + Pete = a good chance of Trump 2020

Edit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svFNiMcgzKs

Video about Pete Buttigieg dropping out from Secular Talk, who is a really good political commentator, honest and usually on the Ball.
Secular Talk is massively pro Bernie

[TwitchySeal]

Pete Buttigieg suspends his campaign - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-drops-out.html

Honorable move imo.  Nice run Pete.

I wonder if Biden offered him anything.

Maybe the VP spot.

Biden + Pete = a good chance of Trump 2020

I doubt it only because he's a white male.  

Stacey Abrahms, Kamala or Amy seem more likely. Maybe Pete ends up as Sec of Vet Affairs or ambassador to a decent country.

Or he might decide to make some money and do something else now that he's big time.

[Gyfts]

Pete Buttigieg suspends his campaign - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-drops-out.html

Honorable move imo.  Nice run Pete.

I wonder if Biden offered him anything.

Maybe the VP spot.

Biden + Pete = a good chance of Trump 2020

Edit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svFNiMcgzKs

Video about Pete Buttigieg dropping out from Secular Talk, who is a really good political commentator, honest and usually on the Ball.
Secular Talk is massively pro Bernie

I honestly think Kamala Harris dropped out because she was promised a VP spot on Biden's ticket. Harris dropped out incredibly early way before the first ballot was ever cast, and she was nearly polling double digits. So essentially, no reason for her to drop out unless she was promised either a VP spot or cabinet position.

A Biden+Harris ticket would be hard to beat for the Trump team.

[Spendulus]

.....
So are you implicitly siding with the insiders? The people who are willing to discredit the United States democratic system and disenfranchise millions of young people?

Yes, exactly. But I am not a Democrat, I am looking at their antics as an outsider. There is considerable corruption at the local and state level, more in some states than others. Then there are the superdelegates and their influence on the national convention.

It is true a lot of people including on this forum believe that the Democratic primary is a democratic process. I do not.

The same was sort of right out in the open in 2016 with the Republican decision making process.

[TwitchySeal]

The winner of an election being the one who got the most votes. On a technicality. A plurality of delegates in this case indicates that he would probably get the majority of the people in a 1 VS 1 election for the nomination.

Biden is actually winning the popular vote at the moment by a decent margin despite being behind in delegates.  I was pretty surprised when I saw this.

[squatz1]

The winner of an election being the one who got the most votes. On a technicality. A plurality of delegates in this case indicates that he would probably get the majority of the people in a 1 VS 1 election for the nomination.

Biden is actually winning the popular vote at the moment by a decent margin despite being behind in delegates.  I was pretty surprised when I saw this.

Going to assume this is pretty much b/c of the LARGE win in South Carolina and the second place showing he needed in Nevada. Iowa and NH don't have that many people, but NV and South Carolina do -- which leads to Biden being able to make up for his horrible finishes in the other states.

This entire thing is going to go down to the wire. With Pete dropping out that's going to help the candidates get to the 15 percent threshold. If they do that, it's going to hurt Bernie pull the delegates in that he needed. Bernie will still most likely win a good deal of the Super Tuesday contests -- but not enough delegates to have a majority  by the time the convention comes around.

Tomorrow folks, get the party hats on!

[TwitchySeal]

A lot of anti Bernie people are calling for Amy to drop out today so she doesn't win any delegates that Biden would win otherwise.  But fivethirtyeight is forecasting that Amy wins a little over half of Minnesotas 75 delegates and Bernie wins the rest.  Biden is about even money to be viable or not.   If Amy were to drop out, many of her voters probably wouldn't turn out, and Bernie could end up winning a whole bunch more than he would if she stayed in.

Minnesota is the only state that someone other than Bernie or Biden is favored to win.

I wonder if this is the sole reason that she hasn't dropped yet.
(I haven't looked too close at her viability in all the other states, so I could be way off base here.)




https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/minnesota/

[KonstantinosM]

Breaking:

Amy Klobuchar drops out and will endorse Biden.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6RdePCEnn8

[suchmoon]

Amy Klobuchar drops out and will endorse Biden.

Everyone's doing their best to screw up Bernie's Tuesday

[PrimeNumber7]

It looks like that some back room deals are taking place to clear the majority of the field prior to Super Tuesday.

It is almost certain that Sanders will win a plurality of delegates with Bloomberg (having spent $400 mm+ with the intention of starting to even be on the ballot on ST), and Biden (coming off a big win in South Carolina. Although he might be confused why Voters in SC are voting for a senate seat in Delaware), being in the race. Their delegates combined may be greater than Sanders.

From the looks of it, no matter what happens, there will be a large group of Democrats very unhappy with the nominee.

[DireWolfM14]

Tomorrow is already Super Tuesday, and all these candidates who've dropped out yesterday and today will still have their names on the ballot.  Then there are all the absentee ballots that were cast weeks ago (like mine.)  What happens to the votes that are cast for candidates that have dropped out? 

[suchmoon]

Tomorrow is already Super Tuesday, and all these candidates who've dropped out yesterday and today will still have their names on the ballot.  Then there are all the absentee ballots that were cast weeks ago (like mine.)  What happens to the votes that are cast for candidates that have dropped out? 

Wait, what? You voted in Democratic primary?

AFAIK most states still count those votes and can even award delegates to candidates who dropped out.

[TwitchySeal]

It is almost certain that Sanders will win a plurality of delegates

Nowhere near certain.  The last 4 days have been devastating for Bernie.



Pete announced he's joining Amy on stage to endorse Joe tonight.

[bones261]

Tomorrow is already Super Tuesday, and all these candidates who've dropped out yesterday and today will still have their names on the ballot.  Then there are all the absentee ballots that were cast weeks ago (like mine.)  What happens to the votes that are cast for candidates that have dropped out?  

Yes, I'm in the same boat as you. I voted weeks ago with a mail in ballot and now my candidate jumped ship. So, I guess the remaining candidates will just have to go without those votes for Super Tuesday. I wonder if Minnesota had early voting. I think Biden could use many of those Klobuchar votes.

Edit: Didn't realize that DireWolfM14 was just asking a question. His candidate is still in the race, virtually unopposed. 

[PrimeNumber7]

It is almost certain that Sanders will win a plurality of delegates

Nowhere near certain.  The last 4 days have been devastating for Bernie.



Pete announced he's joining Amy on stage to endorse Joe tonight.

That is one model and I wouldn’t trust the daily movements on these models, and the political landscape is so different than in the past, so I would consider these models to be unreliable in general (they are based on historical data).

We will have a much clearer picture by Wednesday morning. I would predict that Bernie gets between 40-45% of the delegates awarded tomorrow (including those that Warren wins) and Biden/Bloomberg splitting the remainder roughly evenly either directly or via endorsements. If Sanders gets over 50% of the delegates tomorrow, it will pretty much be over (as in Sanders getting a plurality) unless either Biden or Bloomberg immediately drops out.  

Looking at the polling for ST states, I would not put Sanders getting >50% out of the question.

[TwitchySeal]

It is almost certain that Sanders will win a plurality of delegates

Nowhere near certain.  The last 4 days have been devastating for Bernie.



Pete announced he's joining Amy on stage to endorse Joe tonight.

That is one model and I wouldn’t trust the daily movements on these models, and the political landscape is so different than in the past, so I would consider these models to be unreliable in general (they are based on historical data).

We will have a much clearer picture by Wednesday morning. I would predict that Bernie gets between 40-45% of the delegates awarded tomorrow (including those that Warren wins) and Biden/Bloomberg splitting the remainder roughly evenly either directly or via endorsements. If Sanders gets over 50% of the delegates tomorrow, it will pretty much be over unless either Biden or Bloomberg immediately drops out.  

Looking at the polling for ST states, I would not put Sanders getting >50% out of the question.

Would be kind of silly not to use historical data no?
Check out their process: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/ You might be surprised.

You can also see how their past models have performed.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/presidential-primaries/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/presidential-elections/

They are giving Bernie a 16% chance and Biden 14% to win a majority at this point.

[DireWolfM14]

Wait, what? You voted in Democratic primary?

How absurd!  You know that's not what I meant.  

I will admit that I've spent most of my life registered as a Democrat (holding my nose in recent decades) specifically so I can vote against the most rabid anti-2A candidates in my (our?) state.  However, that's obviously proven to be a losing strategy.

I've never been particularly drawn to the Republican party for various reasons.  Even though I tend to lean towards historically conservative values, I have never been able to reconcile with the Republicans' positions on social liberties (i.e. reproductive rights, homosexual rights...)  

Then came Gavin Newsom, who single-handedly convinced me to register as a Republican for the first time in my life.  

So I voted for Trump.  Trying to right my wrong from 2016.  

I think it was John Adams who said it first, but this quote seems to summarize my political adventure:

If a person is not a liberal when he is twenty, he has no heart; if he is not a conservative when he is forty, he has no head.

IIRC I was a conservative before I hit thirty, so I don't know what that says about heart to head ratio.  I attribute it to having three daughters, it's as good of an excuse as any. 

[squatz1]

Amy Klobuchar drops out and will endorse Biden.

Everyone's doing their best to screw up Bernie's Tuesday

Yup, they're all clearing the way to try to go up against Bernie -- and they've picked Biden to do so. He's totally offered a cabinet spot to Pete, Klobuchar may have gotten either a cabinet spot or the VP spot (true for both honestly).

This is the DNC's way of trying to flip this race to being something that Bernie is unable to win. They're praying that they can beat him on the first ballot, though I think the chances of this are VERY slim, or in a contested convention (a PR nightmare for the dems, but they're willing to do it to push Bernie away)

TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE CRAZY GUYS!!!!!

[KonstantinosM]

I don't understand how people are willing to vote for Biden. Then again I struggle to see why Trump became president.


If everyone in the electorate saw this video I think Bernie would win:

Title:
'Super Creep' | Joe Biden Creepy Clips Compilation 2019 | Parody Song
Description:
Joe Biden being a creep
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKJYPBNB1Yk


I've seen better compilations than that too. If I had a daughter and Joe did that to her I'd probably punch him and go to jail.




Then there's the fact that his brain is melting:

Title:
Joe Biden - 17 Minutes Of Joe's Melting Brain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADDrSvNyqEY


Then there's the fact that Obama didn't even endorse him.
Then there's all the lies and fake stories he constantly tells.

If Biden wins the nom, I think it will be even worse than 2016.

Hillary Clinton at least had the gimmick that she would be the first woman. One of the few things that made me almost stop supporting Bernie was when he endorsed Hillary. I lost a lot of respect for him, but I see his side too, Trump has been a disaster.

The only reason Biden has a chance of winning is the lies that are propagated through the media. A sea of lies. Lies everywhere. Even on the Internet. Politifact is part of that too. Their "fact checks" are wrong when it comes to Bernie vs Biden which is disturbing.

Edit: deleting unnecessary words

[nutildah]

I don't understand how people are willing to vote for Biden. Then again I struggle to see why Trump became president.

This is basically American politics in a nutshell. I don't think any of us really understand it. I can't remember the last time we, collectively as a nation, thought "This candidate is really good, I hope they win. Oh but this one is really good too!" It's always a choice of which candidate offends your sensibilities slightly less than the other -- the whole "giant douche vs. turd sandwich" canard.

If Biden wins the nom, I think it will be even worse than 2016.

Hillary Clinton at least had the gimmick that she would be the first woman. One of the few things that made me almost stop supporting Bernie was when he endorsed Hillary. I lost a lot of respect for him, but I see his side too, Trump has been a disaster.

I dunno, having been around at the time, the hatred for Hillary was unlike anything I've ever seen. I would say that it even surpassed the hatred for Donald Trump, but that's not exactly true, as Hillary won the popular vote by over 3 million votes.

Bernie did the polite thing by endorsing Hillary. It's a testament to him being a stand-up guy, which is a good quality in a leader. Even if Hillary and her pack continue to trash Bernie, he's not stooping to her level.