2020 Democrats

[TwitchySeal]

I think one of my biggest questions regarding this race is: Was there a plan beforehand setup with Amy, Pete, and Biden regarding the nomination?

I may be too much of a cynic here, but I think that some of this may have been planned in advance. Pete knew that Bernie would be fighting hard for a win in the early states, as that's where you build the momentum. Pete pretty much uses ALL of his resources in the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire. He had a great result, pretty much tying Bernie in both New Hampshire and in Iowa.Pete was essentially able to cancel out any momentum and news coverage that Bernie may have been able to count on.

Bernie did great in Nevada, yes, but this bought time for everyone else to build up resources in other states and to show the voters that Bernie wasn't going to be able to win the general. That was literally the only thing on the news for DAYS, WEEKS, ETC.

Now Biden will most likely be the nominee, am I too much of a cynic? Let me know.

I think they were always planning on endorsing whichever moderate Democrat lasted the longest.  I doubt they were planning all along for that candidate to be Biden.  In fact, I bet they considered it unlikely Biden would be that candidate after NH.

I also don't think Biden tanked Iowa, Nevada and NH intentionally.  He had significantly less money than Bernie, Pete and Bloomberg and a good performance in any of those three states would've been very beneficial financially.

[1714963045]

1714963045

[1714963045]

1714963045

[1714963045]

1714963045

[1714963045]

1714963045

[1714963045]

1714963045

[suchmoon]

At this rate Bernie will be dropping out before next Tuesday.

[bones261]

Elizabeth Warren HAS NOW DROPPED OUT OF THE PRIMARY. Though she has not signaled for who she will endorse at this time. Both Biden and Sanders have spoken to her.

Well darn it. I was so looking forward to what quips she might belt out at the next debate. Now all we are going to get is too old men yelling at each other.  I doubt that they will even invite Tulsi, though she is still in it, right?

[squatz1]

Elizabeth Warren HAS NOW DROPPED OUT OF THE PRIMARY. Though she has not signaled for who she will endorse at this time. Both Biden and Sanders have spoken to her.

Well darn it. I was so looking forward to what quips she might belt out at the next debate. Now all we are going to get is too old men yelling at each other.  I doubt that they will even invite Tulsi, though she is still in it, right?

I mean it really depends on how you define 'still in it' Yes, she still has an active campaign. But she's won like 2 delegates throughout this entire race, and it's truly unclear on why she's still has an active campaign. Unless she wants to run for the Senator from Hawaii or the Governor of Hawaii or something like that.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tulsi-gabbard-still-in-2020-the-race-unclear-why-2020-3

[Spendulus]

Elizabeth Warren HAS NOW DROPPED OUT OF THE PRIMARY. Though she has not signaled for who she will endorse at this time. Both Biden and Sanders have spoken to her.

Well darn it. I was so looking forward to what quips she might belt out at the next debate. Now all we are going to get is too old men yelling at each other.  I doubt that they will even invite Tulsi, though she is still in it, right?

Anyone who gets disgusted at

old white haired men up

on silly clown stage...

Can vote orange hair.

[KonstantinosM]

At this rate Bernie will be dropping out before next Tuesday.

I'll take that as a joke.

Elizabeth Warren HAS NOW DROPPED OUT OF THE PRIMARY. Though she has not signaled for who she will endorse at this time. Both Biden and Sanders have spoken to her.

Her best return on investment is going to be endorsing Biden, she’ll probably get a VP or high cabinet position for that.

Endorsing Bernie though would make the most sense based on her views. Biden is just more of the same, and I’m pretty sure she has said that. Bernie is calling for change, like her.

I’ll update this for whoever she endorses

Just the fact that she's out is good enough for me. A bigger pool of potential progressive voters is a good thing for Bernie.


I'll make a little disclosure here. I've donated in total around $580 for Bernie so far around this primary season in 2020 and 2019. And I'm working class, I'm not well off by any stretch of the imagination. In my day to day life, I've never seen anyone with a Joe Biden T-Shirt or with a Biden car sticker.

I've met people supporting Trump or people supporting Bernie. I never met anyone openly supporting Biden.

I won't stop fighting now, even if there's only a small chance of getting Bernie the presidency. Super Tuesday sucked. But we're still in the race.

Bernie kind of shoots himself in the foot by using the term "Democratic Socialist". Take all the policies he backs and remove that pointless label, and we'd probably be winning right now.

[bones261]

Elizabeth Warren HAS NOW DROPPED OUT OF THE PRIMARY. Though she has not signaled for who she will endorse at this time. Both Biden and Sanders have spoken to her.

Well darn it. I was so looking forward to what quips she might belt out at the next debate. Now all we are going to get is too old men yelling at each other.  I doubt that they will even invite Tulsi, though she is still in it, right?

Anyone who gets disgusted at

old white haired men up

on silly clown stage...

Can vote orange hair.

The problem is that it will still be two old men yelling at each other, 3 more times, after the Democrats pick their nominee. Just because one guy dyes his hair orange doesn't make the display any more appealing. 

[suchmoon]

I'll take that as a joke.

Kind of. If you look at the betting odds - nearly everyone seems to believe that Bernie is done. If he doesn't win Michigan next week he'll be done for real.

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/democratic-nominee-odds

[DireWolfM14]

If anyone from the progressive side of things is in on it its Warren. She hasn't stepped aside yet and it may be a deliberate attack to seperate the progressive votes into two, ensuring that Bernie is unable to rack up enough delegates.

I believe you've on to something there.  Considering that Warren's talking points often conflict with her voting record I think she's way more establishment than she wants us and her supporters to believe.  Whether it's coincidental, or deliberate back-room dealings that put her in that position, her campaign definitely took votes away Sanders, and helped the other establishment Democrats.

Now that she has dropped out, one would think that she would absolutely support Sanders, given her (supposed) progressive agenda.  They may not agree on how we should to the policies they want, but in the end their policies are very similar.  But she hasn't supported Sanders.  And I doubt that she'll support Biden either.  If she supports Sanders her establishment power position will be threatened.  If she supports Biden she risks alienating her progressive supporters.  Damned if she does, damned if she doesn't.

At this rate Bernie will be dropping out before next Tuesday.

I'm going to agree with KonstantinosM, I think you're being facetious, but in case you're not; the liberals in the western states tend to be fairly progressive.  I wouldn't count Sanders out until the results from Idaho, N. Dakota, Washington, and Arizona are in.  Arizona's primary is on the 17th, so I doubt he would consider conceding the race to Biden until then.

[theymos]

I mean it really depends on how you define 'still in it' Yes, she still has an active campaign. But she's won like 2 delegates throughout this entire race, and it's truly unclear on why she's still has an active campaign. Unless she wants to run for the Senator from Hawaii or the Governor of Hawaii or something like that.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tulsi-gabbard-still-in-2020-the-race-unclear-why-2020-3

At this point she seems to be intentionally trolling the Democratic establishment, which I certainly respect. She's burned a lot of bridges (eg. she'll probably be primaried for her Senate seat), so I wonder what her future plans are. It almost looks like instead of aiming for higher political office, she's aiming to get a primetime show on Fox or something.

[DireWolfM14]

I mean it really depends on how you define 'still in it' Yes, she still has an active campaign. But she's won like 2 delegates throughout this entire race, and it's truly unclear on why she's still has an active campaign. Unless she wants to run for the Senator from Hawaii or the Governor of Hawaii or something like that.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tulsi-gabbard-still-in-2020-the-race-unclear-why-2020-3

At this point she seems to be intentionally trolling the Democratic establishment, which I certainly respect. She's burned a lot of bridges (eg. she'll probably be primaried for her Senate seat), so I wonder what her future plans are. It almost looks like instead of aiming for higher political office, she's aiming to get a primetime show on Fox or something.

Oddly enough Gabbard probably had the best chance of stripping a large number right-of-center moderate and independent votes from Trump in the general election.  I knew early on in her bid that she would never get the support of the DNC, she's not the "toe-the-party-line" type and the Democrats hate trouble makers. 

I bet you're right that her senate seat will be challenged in the next primary, if she chooses to run.  She's too smart to remain in politics anyway, and I wouldn't complain about her making daily appearances on TV.   

[suchmoon]

I'm going to agree with KonstantinosM, I think you're being facetious, but in case you're not; the liberals in the western states tend to be fairly progressive.  I wouldn't count Sanders out until the results from Idaho, N. Dakota, Washington, and Arizona are in.  Arizona's primary is on the 17th, so I doubt he would consider conceding the race to Biden until then.

These states are not enough to make any significant dent in Biden's advantage. Less than 200 delegates total in those 4 states. He would need to get 70%+ there just to close the current gap (give or take, depending on final California results) but Biden is likely to win other states within those two weeks.

Bernie would need to win MI, PA, NY, NJ (~700 total) to stay viable. Things are not pointing in that direction at all right now. I don't think he has much chance in other big states like FL, IL, OH, GA (~600 total).

[Spendulus]

At this rate Bernie will be dropping out before next Tuesday.

I'll take that as a joke.

Elizabeth Warren HAS NOW DROPPED OUT OF THE PRIMARY. Though she has not signaled for who she will endorse at this time. Both Biden and Sanders have spoken to her.

Her best return on investment is going to be endorsing Biden, she’ll probably get a VP or high cabinet position for that.

Endorsing Bernie though would make the most sense based on her views. Biden is just more of the same, and I’m pretty sure she has said that. Bernie is calling for change, like her.

I’ll update this for whoever she endorses

Just the fact that she's out is good enough for me. A bigger pool of potential progressive voters is a good thing for Bernie.


I'll make a little disclosure here. I've donated in total around $580 for Bernie so far around this primary season in 2020 and 2019. And I'm working class, I'm not well off by any stretch of the imagination. In my day to day life, I've never seen anyone with a Joe Biden T-Shirt or with a Biden car sticker.

I've met people supporting Trump or people supporting Bernie. I never met anyone openly supporting Biden.

I won't stop fighting now, even if there's only a small chance of getting Bernie the presidency. Super Tuesday sucked. But we're still in the race.

Bernie kind of shoots himself in the foot by using the term "Democratic Socialist". Take all the policies he backs and remove that pointless label, and we'd probably be winning right now.

Have to agree with you about the Biden nothingness. Saw a car with a Beto sticker today. None with Biden...

Yeah, even the college kids see through that one.

[squatz1]

At this rate Bernie will be dropping out before next Tuesday.

I'll take that as a joke.

Elizabeth Warren HAS NOW DROPPED OUT OF THE PRIMARY. Though she has not signaled for who she will endorse at this time. Both Biden and Sanders have spoken to her.

Her best return on investment is going to be endorsing Biden, she’ll probably get a VP or high cabinet position for that.

Endorsing Bernie though would make the most sense based on her views. Biden is just more of the same, and I’m pretty sure she has said that. Bernie is calling for change, like her.

I’ll update this for whoever she endorses

Just the fact that she's out is good enough for me. A bigger pool of potential progressive voters is a good thing for Bernie.


I'll make a little disclosure here. I've donated in total around $580 for Bernie so far around this primary season in 2020 and 2019. And I'm working class, I'm not well off by any stretch of the imagination. In my day to day life, I've never seen anyone with a Joe Biden T-Shirt or with a Biden car sticker.

I've met people supporting Trump or people supporting Bernie. I never met anyone openly supporting Biden.

I won't stop fighting now, even if there's only a small chance of getting Bernie the presidency. Super Tuesday sucked. But we're still in the race.

Bernie kind of shoots himself in the foot by using the term "Democratic Socialist". Take all the policies he backs and remove that pointless label, and we'd probably be winning right now.

Have to agree with you about the Biden nothingness. Saw a car with a Beto sticker today. None with Biden...

Yeah, even the college kids see through that one.

This is true, I've literally never seen anyone openly supporting Biden. Though I wouldn't be surprised that there is a large set of Dem voters who are pretty quiet about who they're supporting and they decide late, maybe there is a good amount of people who want the return to normalcy. They see the return to normalcy as Biden.

But -- 538 has released their updated model now that Super Tuesday is done and everything. Has Biden as the frontrunner with an 89 percent chance of winning the majority of the delegates, next is no one winning a majority.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[TwitchySeal]

Fivethirtyeight just released their post-supertuesday-forecast.  They are giving Biden an 89% chance of winning the majority.  I was guessing it would be more like 25% Bernie win 25% No Majority 50% Biden win.  





Washington and Michigan will be the two to watch this Tuesday:





The following Tuesday (4 states) Biden is a lock for Florida, way ahead in Illinois and Ohio, and is a decent favorite in Arizona.

In fact, after Washington State this Tuesday, it looks like Biden is favored in every single state and territory, with the biggest margins in NY and FL.

[KonstantinosM]

I see where this is heading, but I'm not ready to lose just yet.

Here's a very short, brilliant satirical video about Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbKfw8mojGc

If only Bernie had the balls to run something like that, ahead of Super Tuesday this race might have been different. Instead Bernie is talking about his good friend Joe.

[squatz1]

I see where this is heading, but I'm not ready to lose just yet.

Here's a very short, brilliant satirical video about Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbKfw8mojGc

If only Bernie had the balls to run something like that, ahead of Super Tuesday this race might have been different. Instead Bernie is talking about his good friend Joe.

Well this was very funny. Obviously heavily edited, but very funny. Going to forward this to some friends.

If the Sanders campaign literally just made clips of Biden talking and blasted them on the airwaves they'd be able to beat him. But I think Bernie might be gunning for something within a Biden admin, or to ensuer that he stays powerful in Washington. He hasn't went negative on Biden yet, at least not enough to notice.

[TECSHARE]

I see where this is heading, but I'm not ready to lose just yet.

Here's a very short, brilliant satirical video about Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbKfw8mojGc

If only Bernie had the balls to run something like that, ahead of Super Tuesday this race might have been different. Instead Bernie is talking about his good friend Joe.

Well this was very funny. Obviously heavily edited, but very funny. Going to forward this to some friends.

If the Sanders campaign literally just made clips of Biden talking and blasted them on the airwaves they'd be able to beat him. But I think Bernie might be gunning for something within a Biden admin, or to ensuer that he stays powerful in Washington. He hasn't went negative on Biden yet, at least not enough to notice.

Bernie Sandbag is doing his job, just like he did in 2016. Suck up as many populist votes as possible then deferring to the establishment candidate.

[mayo2u]

I see where this is heading, but I'm not ready to lose just yet.

Here's a very short, brilliant satirical video about Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbKfw8mojGc

If only Bernie had the balls to run something like that, ahead of Super Tuesday this race might have been different. Instead Bernie is talking about his good friend Joe.

Well this was very funny. Obviously heavily edited, but very funny. Going to forward this to some friends.

If the Sanders campaign literally just made clips of Biden talking and blasted them on the airwaves they'd be able to beat him. But I think Bernie might be gunning for something within a Biden admin, or to ensuer that he stays powerful in Washington. He hasn't went negative on Biden yet, at least not enough to notice.

Bernie had a better chance in 2016 when both he and Trump were taking the same positions on immigration and trade. Now we have 4 years seeing that Trump is doing what he said he'll do and Bernie is now for open borders. He's still saying the same things on trade but after back flipping on immigration how can one believe what he says on trade?

[Spendulus]

....

Bernie Sandbag is doing his job, just like he did in 2016. Suck up as many populist votes as possible then deferring to the establishment candidate.

It's a thankless, dirty job. I couldn't think of a better guy suited to it.