2020 Democrats

[TwitchySeal]

It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
 - Trump 50%
 - Biden 40%
 - Cuomo 6%
 - Sanders 4%
 - Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

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Keep in mind those numbers are from a market, not a sports book.  A lot of trades are based on what you think other people will predict rather than what you think will actually happen.

A sportsbook tries to price their odds such that approximately equal bets are placed on each side of a bet. A betting market is exactly that, except the spread is much smaller for a market.

When you place a bet with a sports bet, you're betting on the outcome of an event.

On predict it, you could do that.  But you could also bet on where you think the market will be tomorrow, or next week, or next month.  It can be +EV to buy shares of a candidate that you believe has basically no chance of winning, if you know an article or interview or press conference is about to happen that will make other people want to buy shares.  My only point was that I think that's what's happening with Cuomo.

(You could always hedge your sports book bet, which is the same idea, but you would have to bet on every other outcome rather than simply sell your share - it could get very expensive over a presidential campaign)

[PrimeNumber7]

It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
 - Trump 50%
 - Biden 40%
 - Cuomo 6%
 - Sanders 4%
 - Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

<>

Keep in mind those numbers are from a market, not a sports book.  A lot of trades are based on what you think other people will predict rather than what you think will actually happen.

A sportsbook tries to price their odds such that approximately equal bets are placed on each side of a bet. A betting market is exactly that, except the spread is much smaller for a market.

When you place a bet with a sports bet, you're betting on the outcome of an event.

On predict it, you could do that.  But you could also bet on where you think the market will be tomorrow, or next week, or next month.  It can be +EV to buy shares of a candidate that you believe has basically no chance of winning, if you know an article or interview or press conference is about to happen that will make other people want to buy shares.  My only point was that I think that's what's happening with Cuomo,

I believe some sportsbooks allow users to 'sell' their bet (with an added 'vig' of course), so what you are describing is not entirely unheard of in sportsbooks. These markets are also not very liquid, so what you are describing is a risky bet, even if you are correct about their odds increasing.

Biden is an especially weak candidate, and his dealings with China (including his son's business dealings in China) make him vulnerable to outrage about our Country's previous policies towards China. I don't see Biden getting the nomination, the establishment wont let Sanders get the nomination.

[squatz1]

It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
 - Trump 50%
 - Biden 40%
 - Cuomo 6%
 - Sanders 4%
 - Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

<>

Keep in mind those numbers are from a market, not a sports book.  A lot of trades are based on what you think other people will predict rather than what you think will actually happen.

A sportsbook tries to price their odds such that approximately equal bets are placed on each side of a bet. A betting market is exactly that, except the spread is much smaller for a market.

When you place a bet with a sports bet, you're betting on the outcome of an event.

On predict it, you could do that.  But you could also bet on where you think the market will be tomorrow, or next week, or next month.  It can be +EV to buy shares of a candidate that you believe has basically no chance of winning, if you know an article or interview or press conference is about to happen that will make other people want to buy shares.  My only point was that I think that's what's happening with Cuomo.

(You could always hedge your sports book bet, which is the same idea, but you would have to bet on every other outcome rather than simply sell your share - it could get very expensive over a presidential campaign)

This is true, I'd be betting on Cuomo to NOT be the nominee right now -- which really could only be done on PredictIT. While I'd have to agree that Cuomo is probably doing a good job -- and an AMAZING job in presenting himself on TV, I can't beleive FOR A SECOND that he'd be able to get the Democrat party behind him. Come on folks.

Edit:

Just looked on the PredictIT site, seems like right now you could bet on Cuomo NOT being the nominee for a return of about 7 percent if he isn't the nominee when the dems official select their nominee during their convention.
You'd be able to make 10 percent on buying shares that say Trump will be the 2020 nominee. Pence comes in a FAR second for this. Guess this is just the risk of death at this age, same thing for Biden with the added portion of Cuomo doing well in press conferences recentley.

Edit 2: PredictIT charges a 5 percent fee for withdrawals. I see where they stop people from just betting no on longshot candidates now.

[suchmoon]

Just documenting this here for posterity: Sanders dropped out so it's Biden vs Trump in November.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out/index.html

[tvbcof]

I really think the American history of family dynasties in politics is puke worthy, but Ivanka with a non-Barbie, more mature dress and hair style would be a serious candidate. As is typical with the VP, his being in the background, we don't really know Pence.
...

How do you like my new slogan?:  "Esther by Easter!"

"There is a kind of important symbolic importance of that date. It’s a date everyone knows, everyone has their eye on Easter. It’s an appropriate time."

Why Esther? Reminds me that the Book of Esther in the Bible is one of the most important Bible books for Jews. It shows us all an outline of what God is doing on Earth with the people of the world.

In some small, but incredible well connected segments of what is currently considere Judaism it is popular to consider Donald Trump to be the modern 'King Cyrus' who 'freed the Jews.'  The same basic groups are similarly popularizing the idea that Ivanka (who has changed her name to Yael) to be the modern 'Queen Esther'.

If you look on Jewtube you will see pages of dopey kids videos about Queen Esther.  The basic story is that she did the crypto-jew thing up to the queenship.  There was a fiendish plot to hang her cousin Mordachai (who was also the guy who raised her and by some accounts who also married her) and go on to do a genocide against most or all Jews.  She then got the king to hang the evil-doer instead.  End of story.

In the less sanitized version of story what she did was a genocide in 'the land' and 75,000 or so of 'the enemies of the Jews' ate the big one.

I'm willing to bet that just like today, a lot of people who are 'the enemies of the Jews' probably barely know what a Jew is and have not put a moment of thought into the subject because they are busy with life.  It was probably a total surprise when they got a knock on the door and a sword through their bellies, and they never did have any idea about what was going on before the lights went dim.

The concept of being a 'victim' of a hypothetical attack, and it being thus justifiable to 'strike first' and kill your presumed enemy is a strong and re-occurring theme in Judaism from what I can see.  It is used to this day to shoot Palestinian kids as even Israeli government officials will tell us.  It also happens to be a generally useful concept for other goals.

[Juggy777]

Just documenting this here for posterity: Sanders dropped out so it's Biden vs Trump in November.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out/index.html

@suchmoon yea I read the news too and we all knew that this announcement was coming soon, and it also makes sense for him to back down now as the Democrats can rally behind Biden, and collectively attack Trump on the way he’s handled the coronavirus issue. It’s also pertinent to note that Trump won’t win the elections easily, and in my personal opinion Biden has a good chance of winning it if the situation doesn’t improve in America soon.

Sources:

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/04/08/utahs-bernie-sanders-fans/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-ads-hit-trump-over-coronavirus-11585049400

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/09/pers-m09.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/19/how-coronavirus-crisis-could-make-biden-better-president/

[InvoKing]

It’s also pertinent to note that Trump won’t win the elections easily, and in my personal opinion Biden has a good chance of winning it if the situation doesn’t improve in America soon.

At the opposite I think Trump will win this time easily. Coronavirus choas will not change the mind of MAGA fans since they are not thinking at all, most of them at least, they just follow their leader like sheep? no offense just a metaphor  
At the opposite, fragile Biden is weak, saying nonsense, can't stand a second face to face to Trump's speech, in addition to accusations from here and there that will pop up, he will be doomed.
It is unfortunate to see an impeached and "all bad descriptions here" person being elected again just because his rivals cannot choose a reasonable person to face him. Lucky Trump  

[Astargath]

It’s also pertinent to note that Trump won’t win the elections easily, and in my personal opinion Biden has a good chance of winning it if the situation doesn’t improve in America soon.

At the opposite I think Trump will win this time easily. Coronavirus choas will not change the mind of MAGA fans since they are not thinking at all, most of them at least, they just follow their leader like sheep? no offense just a metaphor  
At the opposite, fragile Biden is weak, saying nonsense, can't stand a second face to face to Trump's speech, in addition to accusations from here and there that will pop up, he will be doomed.
It is unfortunate to see an impeached and "all bad descriptions here" person being elected again just because his rivals cannot choose a reasonable person to face him. Lucky Trump  

'Impeached' because the Democrats wanted to lol. They are all a bunch of clowns trying to 'defeat' Trump at all costs instead of actually helping the United States.

[InvoKing]

It’s also pertinent to note that Trump won’t win the elections easily, and in my personal opinion Biden has a good chance of winning it if the situation doesn’t improve in America soon.

At the opposite I think Trump will win this time easily. Coronavirus choas will not change the mind of MAGA fans since they are not thinking at all, most of them at least, they just follow their leader like sheep? no offense just a metaphor  
At the opposite, fragile Biden is weak, saying nonsense, can't stand a second face to face to Trump's speech, in addition to accusations from here and there that will pop up, he will be doomed.
It is unfortunate to see an impeached and "all bad descriptions here" person being elected again just because his rivals cannot choose a reasonable person to face him. Lucky Trump  

'Impeached' because the Democrats wanted to lol. They are all a bunch of clowns trying to 'defeat' Trump at all costs instead of actually helping the United States.

Nope, Trump is more than enough to help USA. He already destroyed its reputation since it is now his personal commy-like farm.

[Spendulus]

With what is happening now in the world, not just in the US, Democrats or liberals or Republicans... it doesn't matter. The main thing is that they are healthy

Soon enough we'll start hearing the drumbeats of the anti-Trump propaganda, somehow based on the Coronovirus lock downs and issues. That's who they are, that's what they do, so that's what they will do. And just like with Bush Jr. and Kavanaugh, at the last minute they'll have some total lie with heavy media exposure. That's what they do, and how they do it.

[DireWolfM14]

With what is happening now in the world, not just in the US, Democrats or liberals or Republicans... it doesn't matter. The main thing is that they are healthy

What's happening in the world today can be partially blamed on the deceptive nature of Totalitarian Communism.  The reluctance of the Chinese Communist Party to admit it's faults, their continued obfuscation of the severity of the plague, and their blatant lies about it's origin aren't helping humanity.  

So every time you listen to Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Adam Schiff, ask yourself what have they done to prevent this outlaw rogue regime from gaining power?  What's that you say?  Nothing?  Oh, it's quite the contrary, you say?  

They've done nothing but help the Chinese Communists steal our intellectual property, our manufacturing jobs, our pharmaceutical production.  They've enabled the Chinese to undercut American businesses who would provide technical and security support.  They've allowed the Chinese to undermine network security protocols for business, and many used by our military.

So, the difference between liberals and conservatives does matter.

[TECSHARE]

Inb4 some one pushes ol' senile Joe out a window and they pull a new contender out of their ass for the Dem nom at the last second. Either that or he dies 30 seconds after inauguration, they kick over his corpse, and swear in his VP.

[Spendulus]

Inb4 some one pushes ol' senile Joe out a window and they pull a new contender out of their ass for the Dem nom at the last second. Either that or he dies 30 seconds after inauguration, they kick over his corpse, and swear in his VP.

Or what they'd really like, to swear in the Speaker.

[squatz1]

With what is happening now in the world, not just in the US, Democrats or liberals or Republicans... it doesn't matter. The main thing is that they are healthy

What's happening in the world today can be partially blamed on the deceptive nature of Totalitarian Communism.  The reluctance of the Chinese Communist Party to admit it's faults, their continued obfuscation of the severity of the plague, and their blatant lies about it's origin aren't helping humanity.  

So every time you listen to Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Adam Schiff, ask yourself what have they done to prevent this outlaw rogue regime from gaining power?  What's that you say?  Nothing?  Oh, it's quite the contrary, you say?  

They've done nothing but help the Chinese Communists steal our intellectual property, our manufacturing jobs, our pharmaceutical production.  They've enabled the Chinese to undercut American businesses who would provide technical and security support.  They've allowed the Chinese to undermine network security protocols for business, and many used by our military.

So, the difference between liberals and conservatives does matter.

I was going to say, I don't think it's fair to put the fault on one party or another for letting the Chinese regime grow stronger and stronger. No one did anything to stop the growth of China.

The first Bush didn't (Republican), Clinton didn't (Democrat, but more moderate), the second bush didn't (Republican), and Obama didn't (Democrat), Trump is trying, but with this coronavirus that's going to come to a standstill. To go a bit further, we've had Republican and Democrat controlling both chambers at different times as well. Have you seen them pass laws stopping China from stealing IP, violating trade laws, and so on and so forth? No, everyone ignored it and kicked the can.

[BADecker]

Obama just did Biden in. Now who for the Democrats? Or is this some kind of underhanded ploy, since the Dems know they are lost anyway?


BARACK ATTACK Obama rips Trump as he FINALLY backs Joe Biden's 2020 bid

On Tuesday, Obama released a video on social media where he said: "Republicans occupying the White House and running the U.S. Senate are not interested in progress. They're interested in power."

Obama said: "The kind of leadership that's guided by knowledge and experience; honesty and humility; empathy and grace – that kind of leadership doesn't just belong in our state capitols and mayors offices. It belongs in the White House.

"That's why I'm so proud to endorse Joe Biden for President of the United States.

"Choosing Joe to by my Vice President was one of the best decisions I ever made and he became a close friend

"And I believe Joe has all the qualities we need in a President right now."

[Gyfts]

Around this time in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump in polls by over 10 points and Sanders led Trump 53 to 38: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-but-voters-view-both-unfavorably/

Currently, Joe Biden is an average 5.5 points above Trump in national polling which, in my view, tells you a few things about this race.

One, an incumbent is hard to beat despite how chaotic Trump's Presidency has been so far. Joe Biden is far more popular than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden has already received a Presidential endorsement by Obama (Hillary in 2016 did not receive an endorsement until months later) yet the lead Biden has is half of that compared to Clinton during the same time. To be fair and to give Biden a small ounce of credit, an incumbent should not be this low when polled against the front runner of the other party. In 2012 around this time, Obama led Mitt Romney by anywhere from 3-11 points in most polls. Trump is not in great shape but this isn't going to be a cake walk for Joe Biden. I know it's not entirely accurate to compare polling data across campaigns from different years because the landscape is entirely different, however, you can still draw parallels no matter the election year.

Two, Joe Biden truly is a boring candidate. Among a historically unpopular candidate like Trump, he isn't able to garner large amounts of support. I don't think democrats can pull off switching candidates at the DNC convention so Joe Biden is going to have to be it. The only way I see him gaining momentum is if he picks a good Vice Presidential candidate and my money would be on him picking Kamala Harris or Amy Klobuchar. These two are certainly leading in the betting odds and I'm interested in what you all would predict would be his pick. Either one of these two would give his campaign a bit of a lift but I'm not sure how Biden will fare against attacks regarding his cognitive decline. His VP pick can't help him with that.

Ronald Reagan had the greatest rebuttal against attacks regarding his cognitive decline during his reelection campaign - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJhCjMfRndk

Joe Biden just doesn't have the same charisma.

[Spendulus]

....Ronald Reagan had the greatest rebuttal against attacks regarding his cognitive decline during his reelection campaign - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJhCjMfRndk

Joe Biden just doesn't have the same charisma.

The two more who looked, similarly to Biden, like "losers from the get-go" were Dole, and McCain.

I wouldn't put Hillary in that category.

[TwitchySeal]

....Ronald Reagan had the greatest rebuttal against attacks regarding his cognitive decline during his reelection campaign - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJhCjMfRndk

Not exactly on topic, but that's only Reagans second best funny response to something (imo).

Here's the first: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Krjmr7laKzY

[Spendulus]

....Ronald Reagan had the greatest rebuttal against attacks regarding his cognitive decline during his reelection campaign - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJhCjMfRndk

Not exactly on topic, but that's only Reagans second best funny response to something (imo).

Here's the first: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Krjmr7laKzY

Reagan had a number of good jokes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTIfGFJqLko

[squatz1]

....Ronald Reagan had the greatest rebuttal against attacks regarding his cognitive decline during his reelection campaign - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJhCjMfRndk

Not exactly on topic, but that's only Reagans second best funny response to something (imo).

Here's the first: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Krjmr7laKzY

Reagan had a number of good jokes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTIfGFJqLko

There's entire compilations about how funny Reagan was, guy had some amazing jokes and people knew it. His charisma was unmatched. Hats off to him and may he RIP.

Haven't seen or heard Joe Biden talk in days, guy has literally just been off the grid. To be honest, he's probably putting out daily press releases and videos but who the hell cares when we're in a time of crisis and he can't put out a coherent sentence without just forgetting most of what he's talking about. I know people attack Trump for not being the best public speaker, and honestly in a WH press briefing setting he really isn't too good. But Biden wouldn't be better and we all know that.

This is literally the worst case scenario for Biden. Typically right now everyone is uniting around their candidate, but no one cares because of this crisis and they're looking to the current administration to continue to help.