It's looked to me for a while as though the Trump campaign is actively trying to lose, so I'm not expecting much. If it's a big disaster, I hope that it's at least an amusing disaster.
I cringed less than I thought I would at the Republican convention. The average quality of the speakers was higher than the Democratic convention, and there was more substance. The Republican convention aimed for a less fancy production, but because they aimed lower, they had fewer glitches. Without analyzing content at all, I'd say that the Republican convention was slightly better presented.
The Democratic convention mentioned almost no policies, instead going for a vague sense of patriotism, nationalism, unity, etc. I actually think that this is quite an effective message, especially for people in swing states and outside of the Democratic base. I think that a lot of "lifelong Republicans" who supported eg. George W Bush will be very comfortable in Biden's Democratic party. Most voters don't actually care about policy much, but instead vote based on general feelings, and you could see both conventions speaking to this. The Democratic convention was emotionally speaking to people who simply can't see Trump alongside people like Roosevelt or Lincoln, who see Trump as an aberration in the American legacy, whose nationalism does not allow for someone like Trump to be a "legitimate" American president. The Republican convention was emotionally speaking to several different core conservative constituencies: people who can't stand leftist culture, evangelicals, people who despise socialism on an emotional level, etc. I think that the former message is far more likely to attract
cross-over voters.
The Republican convention mentioned quite a few more concrete policy goals/achievements than the Democrats, though many were contradictory. Some example policies:
- Trump didn't start any wars
- He stood up to many enemies, eg. Iran
- He rebuilt the military
- He stands behind Israel
- He's for an America First foreign policy (including military and trade)
- He cut taxes
- He protected the US from coronavirus as well as could be expected
- He appointed conservative judges
- He helped small business through deregulation, etc.
- He promoted law & order, cracking down on riots
- He promotes free speech, civil liberties, and diversity of thought
- He's skeptical of Big Tech
- He actively supports Ambrahamic religions
- He supports diversity, and is not racist or sexist
The most effective messages IMO are:
- Attacking Biden from the left on issues such as criminal justice. The convention did this a bit, such as with the Alice Johnson and Daniel Cameron speeches, but they could've done this a lot more and better. Biden is basically a Bush-era Republican, and Trump should be attacking him like he attacked Jeb Bush.
- Talking about a return to normalcy,
not a "new normal". This is what people want, even if you think that it may be unrealistic.
- Being anti-war.
- Trying to appear as pro-diversity as possible to try to soften the perception of Trump as racist and sexist. They did a decent job at this.
- Trying to appear very stable and presidential to try to soften the perception of Trump as unhinged. They did a bit of this with the pardons, citizenship ceremonies, and just using official sites as locations.
There was a strong law & order message. I'm not sure how effective this is. It appeals to some people, but it turns off others, and it also depends heavily on the location of the listener and the mood of the country. The law & order messaging totally backfired on Trump after George Floyd, but Trump made a lot of unforced errors there (eg. the Lafayette Square thing), and the mood of the country was different.
There was a strong message of "Biden is Bernie Sanders in disguise." This is a
very ineffective message. Nobody believes this, and even if they did, it wouldn't seriously bother enough people who are not already firmly behind Trump.
I don't think that it's completely ineffective to throw out many contradictory messages and see what sticks. People tend to hear what they want to hear and ignore the rest. Pro-war Trump supporters will be enthusiastic that he's been sticking it to Iran, while anti-war Trump supporters will be enthusiastic that he's avoided starting any major wars, and each will ignore the contradictory messaging. It's probably better at pumping up support from people who already lean toward Trump than attracting cross-over voters, though.
Both Pence's and Trump's speeches sucked, and will not move anyone to Trump. There actually were several good speeches/segments, but they got much less coverage than the bad speeches.
As expected, both conventions were mostly boring & shallow infomercials. I don't think that there's much value in diving deep into the content of any speeches or anything like that; the vast majority of voters don't watch these conventions at all, fewer still watch the whole ~8 hours, and only a tiny number are swayed much by the content. Where there's any value at all in analyzing these conventions, it's in how the convention shapes the media narrative for a few weeks, and in indicating how the leaders of the campaign are looking at things.
It seems to me that both campaigns have effective-looking strategies. Neither has a complete disaster of a campaign strategy (which I thought might be the case for Trump). The Biden campaign is more-or-less trying to become the Republican party circa 2012. They want to keep their base of minorities and leftists while drawing a lot of nationalists who can't stand Trump and people longing for stability above all else, though they won't
excite anyone. It could work. The Trump campaign wants to keep their base ultra-excited, reduce turnout among potential Biden voters by lowering their already-low excitement below the threshold where they'd actually vote, stem the bleeding in traditional Republicans, and possibly draw in some people who are more hopeful for positive change rather than just hoping for a return to the pre-Trump status quo. That could also work.
After having viewed both conventions, I think that the Biden campaign strategy -- appealing broadly but shallowly using simple emotions -- is slightly superior, especially since I think that economic and virus conditions will likely worsen before election day. Biden is the alternative waiting in the wings for
anyone who feels that a change is needed. But I could see the Trump campaign strategy working, especially if Trump holds a gun to the head of the FDA in order to get a vaccine approved before election day and the economy also holds it together until then contrary to my expectations. Then people won't feel such anti-Trump pressure, and the almost nonexistent pro-Biden pressure might result in a Trump victory.
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