LoyceV's Avatar for Rent [🦊🦊🦊🦊🦊 5 YEARS 🦊🦊🦊🦊🦊 (267 weeks) rented out]

[1miau]

Thank you for running another contest like this one 1miau! Since I'm edible I'll just try my hand at guessing the block (I believe this is my first time doing so):

Code:

Bitcointalk Account: RickDeckard
Last Block of January 2023: 774501 

My calculations took the following assumption:
...

Great and very detailed prediction, I've added it to my list.


Since time for participation is running out today, I'll also make my calculation:

Time left until January 31, 2023, 23.59h:
24 days
6 hours


On average, each day will be mined (1 Block per 10 minutes) 144 Blocks per day (6 Blocks per hour x 24 hours = 144 Blocks)

Calculation if we won't see any hashrate change:
(24 days * 144 Blocks per day) = 3.456 Blocks
+ (6 hours x 6 Blocks per hour) = 36 Blocks
= 3.492 Blocks until our given date

=>

3.492 + 770.843 (current Block) = 774.335


Now, we need to adjust our prediction due to difficulty changes.
Difficulty changes are made due to hashrate changes, which are following BTC price.
I'm expecting BTC to make a nice move towards 25k and more miners will join the network (hashrate increase) => more Blocks will be mined.
It's difficult to predict, how hashrate will be affected but I'm adding a total of 5% more Blocks to be mined.

3.492 * 1,05 = 3.666,6 Blocks

=>

3.666,6 + 770.843 (current Block) = 774.335

My prediction: 774.510

Code:

Bitcointalk Account: 1miau
Last Block of January 2023: 774.510 

[GazetaBitcoin]

Gazeta I have to say that you have a remarkable couch! It does bring light to the room, plus it seems highly flexible! Added bonus of having a nice surround system in the back of it! May I ask what system are you currently running of speakers and such?

Thank you, my friend, and also thank you for joining this party

And yes, the couch is very flexible, since all its elements can be arranged however you please  
Regarding the sound system, what can I say? -- You have eagle eyes!

Now that system has a story. Before renovating my home I used (since 2003 or 2004) an Altec Lansing 641 4.1 system. When I bought it, I remember that it was la piece de resistance among speakers... I remember that I paid for it about 400 euro, while the rent was 100 euro back then. And I was very happy with it... But its main problem was that it had all its speakers connected through wires to the subwoofer. It also did not have a standalone amplifier; it was built-in. And its remote control was also wired.

Now before renovating the house I used to have carpet on the floor, in living room, and I could hide all those wires under the carpet. After renovation was done, I had parquet in living room and no carpet, thus I could not hide the wires anymore. And the wires were also not long enough for allowing me to hide them at the base of the walls (they were not long enough to surround the entire room). Therefore, sadly, I knew I will have to stop using my precious Altec Lansing.

So I started looking for a new sound system, a wireless or semi-wireless one, but I also wanted it to have some specific details: to have "tallboy" speakers (like the ones you saw in my picture), to have a max power output of at least 500W (as my old Altec had 480) and to have a wireless remote control. So I searched for such system for almost two months, only to realize that they are not made anymore. Nor by Samsung, nor by Sony, nor by other companies. I found 2-3 wireless systems but they had small speakers (like the satellites of my old Antec Lansing) and I did not like them. I also did not want a sound bar, as it can not offer full spatial sound; it only imitates it, but spatial is spatial and the sound offered by a sound bar is, certainly, not spatial).

So when I was about to give up, I found this system at a guy, which was selling it as he did not use it anymore. He said he has a 3.5 yo girl and their TV is always on Cartoon Network, thus the system was not needed anymore. Now all I bought in my house, for the renovation, was brand new. Absolutely everything. And I also wanted to have a brand new audio system as well. It was just... what I wanted to buy could not be found anymore. So I went to this guy's house and I inspected carefully the system, each speaker, the remote control, everything. It was like a brand new one! No scratch, no stain, no nothing! I was very impressed and I decided to buy it. He gave it to me for 200 euro and he said he paid for it more than 700 euro when he bought it.

So this is how I got it and this is how it's front part looks like:



It's a Sony BDV-E970W. And I am very pleased by it. Its max power output is 1000W and it is semi-wireless. The rear speakers are connected between them with wires and they have to be plugged into a power outlet, but they are not wired to the amplifier. They communicate wireless with the amplifier and the front speakers. The front speakers and central one are also wired to the amplifier but again, it does not disturb be, as all their cables are behind the cabinet located under the TV. And, of course, the remote control is wireless, but I don;t even need it, as the system responds also to the TV remote control.

Last, but not least: remember that I said that everything was brand new after renovation. This also includes that 65" TV you see in the picture. I did not plan to change my old TV, which was "only" a 60" one (and I had it since 2015), but my son forced me to (facepalm). Just when I finished all renovation and I was about to say "Thank God it's all finished!" (in October 2022), one evening I heard a loud sound. I quickly came to living room and I saw my previous TV fallen down from that cabinet located under the new TV, with its face toward the ground. What happened? My son pulled out all the shelves of the cabinet, the shelves were full with heavy stuff and the cabinet leaned forward. The TV was placed on and it fell down... Of course, the entire display was broken... There was nothing left to do but buying a new one. So I bought even a bigger one (lol) but this one is bolted into the wall! I'm not making same error as before. (And, if you want to know the model of the TV, it is a QLED Smart SAMSUNG 65Q60B, Ultra HD 4K, HDR)

^By the way, be careful TheBeardedBaby and LoyceV! If you don't have your TVs bolted into walls, I'd suggest you to do it. You never know when the baby may decide you need a new one

[LoyceV]

It's a Sony BDV-E970W. And I am very pleased by it. Its max power output is 1000W and it is semi-wireless.

Call me old-fashioned, but I want my speakers to be big. I don't really believe you can push 1000W through such small speakers. I want big, so it doesn't need the subwoofer for low sound.
My speakers are old by now though, and if we ever move, we'll probably buy a whole lot of new items. But for now, it'll do. Houses are crazy expensive at the moment.

one evening I heard a loud sound. I quickly came to living room and I saw my previous TV fallen down from that cabinet located under the new TV, with its face toward the ground. What happened? My son pulled out all the shelves of the cabinet, the shelves were full with heavy stuff and the cabinet leaned forward. The TV was placed on and it fell down... Of course, the entire display was broken...

Maybe it's because I'm a dad, but I'm missing a crucial part of this story: how was your son doing?
Here, furniture is either heavy, wall-mounted, or filled with lead. I know my kids.

^By the way, be careful TheBeardedBaby and LoyceV! If you don't have your TVs bolted into walls, I'd suggest you to do it. You never know when the baby may decide you need a new one

Our TV isn't wall-mounted. It has scratches in the screen, from my son hitting it with Duplo. A couple of years ago I found him standing in front of it on a table that he moved, holding the top with 2 hands, angrily shaking it and ready to pull it on top of him when I interfeared (that's not a typo, it's a word I made up because it fits better).

[GazetaBitcoin]

Call me old-fashioned, but I want my speakers to be big.

I also like that, but I live inside an apartments building and I also have to think about the neighbors. At least, sometimes

I don't really believe you can push 1000W through such small speakers. I want big, so it doesn't need the subwoofer for low sound.

Obviously, the 1000W is pure marketing, same as the old Altec Lansing could not deliver 500W. But they use this disclaimer: the 100W represents "the max output power" -- which is different than "Total output power" or than what we understand by "How many real Watts does it have, hombre?" Realistically thinking, I think that it may reach a total power output by 400-500W (by the way, the subwoofer is at the right side of the TV, near the balcony door).

Houses are crazy expensive at the moment.

So true...

Maybe it's because I'm a dad, but I'm missing a crucial part of this story: how was your son doing?

Good question! Thank God, he was all a smile, sitting near the broken TV, laughing. He was very proud of what he did. He was not hurt, as he stepped back quickly when he saw it moving, but this did not stop him from being proud of his achievement (facepalm again). I remember than an aunt of mine told me that when I was 3 yo I once "fished" and old clock which she had on a dressing, using a toy fishing rod (obviously, after I hooked it with the fishing rod's hook it fell on the ground and got broken, as the hook was a fragile plastic one, lol). And she always used to tell me that story like it was something shocking what I did back then. I guess nowadays kids don't fish clocks anymore, but 60" TVs Of course, I told my aunt what he did, to not be shocked anymore about her clock. So I also can't brag myself anymore with the fact that I fished that clock. My son is already way ahead, with fishing a big screen TV =))) (Curiously, I still have the power to laugh about it, although the new one left me without almost 900 euro.)

Here, furniture is either heavy, wall-mounted, or filled with lead. I know my kids.

Great decision! Big thumb up!

Our TV isn't wall-mounted. It has scratches in the screen, from my son hitting it with Duplo.

Oh, gawd...

A couple of years ago I found him standing in front of it on a table that he moved, holding the top with 2 hands, angrily shaking it and ready to pull it on top of him when I interfeared (that's not a typo, it's a word I made up because it fits better).

I sent you one merit for teaching me this word! I will also use it from now on

[o_e_l_e_o]

Code:

Bitcointalk Account: o_e_l_e_o
Last Block of January 2023: 774,526

[TheBeardedBaby]

^By the way, be careful TheBeardedBaby and LoyceV! If you don't have your TVs bolted into walls, I'd suggest you to do it. You never know when the baby may decide you need a new one

Our TV isn't wall-mounted. It has scratches in the screen, from my son hitting it with Duplo. A couple of years ago I found him standing in front of it on a table that he moved, holding the top with 2 hands, angrily shaking it and ready to pull it on top of him when I interfeared (that's not a typo, it's a word I made up because it fits better).

My kids are wild, everything is anchored to the wall. I have 1,8m high glass display cabinet. One day i found the girl jumping from it to the couch... The TV is wall mounted as well. I changed 3 TVs since the first one was born.
The first TV was new, but had only a few months of life, died after an update. Then I decided that is no point to buy new TV with small kid, and got second hand, heavy 50" plasma. As I expected the kiddo found a sea shell and scraped the the whole screen, luckily it had a protective glass so the matrix wasn't damaged. This tv survived almost 3 years, unfortunately died, the power supply gave up and I also gave up on fixing it. Was anchored to the wall. Got another used one, and died after 2 years. Than I got a new one Philips 55" with Android and mounted it on the wall. I'm quite happy with it now, the older kid is keeping the small one away from it.

[fillippone]

Code:

Bitcointalk Account: fillippone
Last Block of January 2023: 774454

Everything is pretty standard right now.
Calculations have been pretty strightforard. You find everything in the attached spreadsheet.

Gazeta BonBon L Giveaway

Forecsting is similar to 1 miau models, but I am sticking to forecasts.
I just added a strategic overview of other's forecast, in order to maximise chances (or try to).

[1miau]

Aaaaaaand participation deadline is over.
Feel free to check if I made some errors in adding your predictions.  

Code:

Bitcointalk Account: o_e_l_e_o
Last Block of January 2023: 774,526

I've added your bullish prediction but since it's so bullish, I'm curious why it's even more bullish than my prediction.  

Code:

Bitcointalk Account: fillippone
Last Block of January 2023: 774454

Everything is pretty standard right now.
Calculations have been pretty strightforard. You find everything in the attached spreadsheet.

Gazeta BonBon L Giveaway

Added as well and that's really a big effort in your spreadsheet.  
+1
It's truly a professional prediction.  

I just added a strategic overview of other's forecast, in order to maximise chances (or try to).

Are you sure that it's bullish enough for our giveaway?  

Edit: I've just checked you spreadsheet in detail and it's interesting that there's not a single prediction above 774450...
I really expect a huge BTC price increase, so will be interesting how it'll turn out. 


Good luck everyone! I'll leave some updates here from time to time to see how it's going.
May our giveaway honor GazetaBitcoin's couch Bonbon L,  

[o_e_l_e_o]

I've added your bullish prediction but since it's so bullish, I'm curious why it's even more bullish than my prediction.  

Based on a very rough estimate of this difficulty period running around 11% faster than average (at the time I made my calculation), a random guess that the next difficulty period would run ~4-5% faster than average, and who knows about the one after that. But more because it gives me a wider range rather than squeezing in around the 774,450s - 774,500s, and avoids me doing the "someone else's guess +/- 1", which (no offense to the people who did that) is what you might call a "dick move".

[fillippone]

I've added your bullish prediction but since it's so bullish, I'm curious why it's even more bullish than my prediction.  

Based on a very rough estimate of this difficulty period running around 11% faster than average (at the time I made my calculation), a random guess that the next difficulty period would run ~4-5% faster than average, and who knows about the one after that. But more because it gives me a wider range rather than squeezing in around the 774,450s - 774,500s, and avoids me doing the "someone else's guess +/- 1", which (no offense to the people who did that) is what you might call a "dick move".

Yeah, I reckon it was a "dick move" but in the end, sorry NeuroticFish, nothing personal.

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

[NeuroticFish]

Yeah, I reckon it was a "dick move" but in the end, sorry NeuroticFish, nothing personal.

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

No worries.
And you could have been done better. The hash rate is rising so fast I now expect we're both way off

[fillippone]

Yeah, I reckon it was a "dick move" but in the end, sorry NeuroticFish, nothing personal.

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

No worries.
And you could have been done better. The hash rate is rising so fast I now expect we're both way off

According to my computations. no rise in the Hash rate: actually the expected result has been quite stable lately.

[NeuroticFish]

According to my computations. no rise in the Hash rate: actually the expected result has been quite stable lately.

Mempool space shows some +11% the estimated next difficulty change. I didn't recheck the calculations, but I am sure I didn't have this big numbers.

[1miau]

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

+1
Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win. 

According to my computations. no rise in the Hash rate: actually the expected result has been quite stable lately.

Mempool space shows some +11% the estimated next difficulty change. I didn't recheck the calculations, but I am sure I didn't have this big numbers.

Looks like Bitcoin is getting ready for 2023. We are above 17k USD now, so if we can keep this level tomorrow, I expect more gains as people are getting a bullish sentiment for our new year (hopefully). If so, we could also see an increasing hashrate.
Maybe some miners are anticipating it already?

[Edwardard]

Looks like Bitcoin is getting ready for 2023. We are above 17k USD now, so if we can keep this level tomorrow, I expect more gains as people are getting a bullish sentiment for our new year (hopefully). If so, we could also see an increasing hashrate.
Maybe some miners are anticipating it already?

Im happy for bitcoin to go back above 17k after a long time, but the miners are expecting a drop in the hashrate for 2023 according to 10 Bitcoin Mining Predictions for 2023, even binance has covered this topic recently. But this will all change as soon as we go back above 20k.
Also, I dont know if we should give importance to FED meetings and rate hikes, 12th jan is our next cpi data release.

[1miau]

Im happy for bitcoin to go back above 17k after a long time, but the miners are expecting a drop in the hashrate for 2023 according to 10 Bitcoin Mining Predictions for 2023, even binance has covered this topic recently.

In my opinion, such "hashrate predictions" are just "educated guesses" because so many variables need to be considered. Most likely these people doing these predictions are as clueless as we are here. 
We can analyze statistics from 2022, 2021 and so on but all these models are screwed when BTC will make big price changes in 2023.
So far, there's only one point we know: new generation miners are getting more efficient because tech is improving and new miners are delievering more hashpower/kwh. So, hashrate will go up.
All the noise in between is impossible to guess. Sure, Bitcoin is likely to increase in value over time but we don't know how much and when and sometimes, we'll even have a bear market.

In addition, your linked article estimated the hashrate to increase, but to slow down.

We will most likely see the hashrate growth slow down in 2023, as the poor mining economics of 2022 didn’t incentivize capacity expansion. The hashrate coming online in 2023 will mostly be delayed capacity expansion miners initially planned to add in 2022. This delayed capacity will come online during the first half of 2023. After that, the hashrate will stop growing and perhaps even contract, depending on the bitcoin price.

Maybe we can bookmark your linked article and review it in late December. 

[LoyceV]

Most likely these people doing these predictions are as clueless as we are here. 

Currently, LoyceV would win. 

Which one is it?

[fillippone]

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

+1
Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win.  

I updated the spreadsheet.
Now it should automatically check the blockchain state every hour, and update the sheet every 15 blocks.
I think it is enough granularity!
Thank you @babo for helping me with the scraping part.

[babo]

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

+1
Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win.  

I updated the spreadsheet.
Now it should automatically check the blockchain state every hour, and update the sheet every 50 blocks.
I think it is enough granularity!
Thank you @babo for helping me with the scraping part.

you are welcome my friend


Unfortunately I don't have much free time
I always work a lot and when I'm free my son rightly wants to play with me
It's really complex and I don't know how to carve out time

when i have free time i like to help geniuses like @fillippone or @mendace ,if i can i do

[Foxpup]

One hundred and ninety-ninth week paid.