Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[JayJuanGee]

I believe some of the comments on Twitter are right.

2025, the year we look back, and remember the "good old days" when we had the golden opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $10,000 $25,000-$30,000.

FTFY

Am I too bold with my above intervention into your contents, Wind_FURY?

Remember the ATH of $1,163 that lasted from late November 2014 until early 2017.  By the time august/September 2017 came, it became a bit of a fantasy, aka golden opportunity to buy BTC below $2k or $3k....

Hey, surely we did not appreciate such below $2k or $3k golden opportunity that was presented to us even in late 2017, and there were a lot of hopenings folks who predicted that they were going to be able to obtain BTC for less than $3k or even less than $2k in 2018, 2019 and even in recent times of the first half of 2020 - but doesn't it seem as if some of those hopes for sub $2k and even hopes for sub $3k coins are fading out of any kind of meaningful reality.. sure there is a chance... sure there is a chance...  but still?

Doesn't sub $3k seem like a kind of "golden opportunity", currently?

Thus, I anticipate sub $25k or sub $30k are going to be considered as quite low BTC prices by the time we reach 2025.... Of course, my anticipation regarding where the BTC price might be is far from a sure thing, and seems a bit unreal at this point as I type, but surely, if we look back historically in 2015/2016, it was a bit of a seeming unreality for some people to be speculating that $2k to $3k was going to be a future BTC price floor.  

In 2015/2016 while BTC prices were in the $200s and $300s and even while BTC prices were seemingly solidly in the triple digits, I know specific people who I had tried to direct them in regard to getting them to invest in BTC  and informing them that the BTC price would be going up to $3k to $5k range in the coming years (having looked at previous price bubbles as a kind of model pattern that was likely to repeat), and I was looked at and really talked to as if I were a fantasizing child engaging in pie in the sky thinking - and most of the peeps that I spoke with in this positive about BTC direction did not even listen to me at all and ended up doing their own thing, which was either NOT to buy any BTC or if they did buy to cash out way too much BTC, way too soon... but there was one or two action takers (I really can pinpoint only one besides myself) who actually hung onto most of the acquired coins and has become quite more better off and comfortable overall in personal finances due to such allowing the BTC investment to ride choice, as I had suggested to be the better approach to BTC.**

**By the way, historically, when I had been counseling anyone in terms of their BTC investments / allocation choices / strategies, I frequently would make sure that I assert that I am not responsible at all, for their investment choices, and they are completely responsible for their BTC investment, allocations, strategies etc.. and I give an overall overview regarding what I was doing with mine, which has been (and continues) largely just HODLing onto most of mine (using myself as a kind of role model)..

I don't know why so many BTC entrants end up valuing so much a 2x or 4x or BTC price appreciation, and they just cannot help themselves from cashing out every damned satoshi that they have and to thereafter pat themselves on the back for having had made such a short-term killing by cashing out.. blah blah blah... a repeating phenomenon.

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[JayJuanGee]

Probably we can just agree to disagree on this point about whether an investor (could do better or could have done better).. even though hypothetically, I do understand a certain amount of wait for a BIGGER dip idea that you seem to be proclaiming to be "better", but any person can end up buying BTC all the way down the downward trajectory of the BTC price for reasons that are based on his whole cashflow situation and ongoing uncertainty about when the bottom is in and how much more (if at all) the price might fall, or not, and in BTC still end up profitable as fuck and even more profitable than a variety of folks who had taken different strategies of trying to time the market and who may have ended up waiting too much and NOT buying and being too nervous..

I think every investor should optimize their strategy. That's all I'm talking about. Even simple rules like "scale in during accumulation phases and scale out during blow off tops" will give you a huge edge over typical investors, who usually do the exact opposite.

It is possible that we are saying very similar things, even though you seem to be emphasizing the trading angle quite a bit more than me, and for sure, I am not opposed to trading, especially BIG swing trading and also a kind incrementalism that involves shaving off some profits on the way UP.

However, I do believe that you and I emphasize degree a bit different, and you seem more inclined to recommend that investors get into trading early on - while I believe that trading is a technique that you might start after you have already established a target position and thereafter you would largely only trade after tailorizing some techniques that were fitting for your own circumstances - so there is no real correct answer including that BTC price direction is very difficult to figure out, even when the direction is seeming obvious.. and surely the direction really seems obvious after the fact.. but not so much while in it.. even though you seem to be suggesting that regular peeps should be able to figure these directional matters out.. especially with a little focus or training.. which I believe is much more difficult than you are making it out to be.. even if on the face of it, it seems easy-peasy.

.
 

The problem with planning to buy all the way down in a bear market? Most investors end up piling all their capital in long before the bear market is over since they don't recognize how long it can last.

Fair enough.. but I still say it is really difficult to know, and for example, if a person has allocated $400 per month, which would be $100 per week, they could attempt to be strategic about it, or maybe they just invest $50 every week and attempt to be strategic about the other $50.  I just have a lot of doubts about being able to know and attempting to be too strategic has high likelihoods of causing the perfect to become the enemy of the good... even though I understand he phenomenon that you are describing.

 

It's not just a matter of opportunity cost and badly optimizing capital either. Being in drawdown for multiple years is extremely painful.

If you are "investing no more than you can afford to lose" then maybe you should not be giving any fucks, rather than being in "pain" from such short to medium term (and seemingly long term) that ends up going up in the long run.. .. even though the short to medium term remains uncomfortable to some degree.

 

Many will just capitulate before price recovers (this is why we refer to 2015 and probably now 2020 as capitulations), selling to patient, stronger hands who understand the difference between accumulation and distribution phases.

did not work for me to cause me to panic.   I did not invest more than I could afford to lose, and I was willing to ride it down to zero if need be, because it was just a relatively smaller (or extra) portion of my income.. and I still had all of my expenses, entertainment, emergency fund, etc covered by other funds. Sure, the amount invested added up during time, but I was stil just taking from an already decided set-aside allocated amount.. that I was willing to lose if prices kept going down, but I had a long term assessment that the asset was likely to perform well in the longer run... couple of years or even that my investment turned into a longer time horizon to allow it to play out. 

Therefore, I did not sell any of my bitcoins, especially during my accumulation phase and even largely during my maintenance phase (which seems to be where I am at currently, even though I am thinking that I will advance to some kind of phase that has liquidations aspects in the coming few years)... except for I would sometimes sell strategically based on formulaic price rises that I had predetermined, and any BTC that I sell that goes beyond the formulaic amounts, I tend to replace, unless I can just plug any of my possibly relatively small amounts of sales into my already existing formulaic buy back practices.

 

That's why I strongly advocate at least loosely basing investment strategy around market cycles. Lacking awareness of them is what causes many people to buy high and sell low.

Perhaps we agree a little bit here.  I do agree with figuring out ways to structure strategy to attempt to remove a lot of emotion.. so if you plan to buy on the way down or you plan to sell on the way up.. you predetermine amounts that work for you so that you don't really run out of fiat to buy or BTC to sell if the BTC price goes running in one direction or another.

 

I'm thinking as much about investor psychology and the likelihood that someone will capitulate as much as I am about their average entry price.

Sure, there are likely ways to take a decent amount of psychology out of investing.. so sure, even creating trading strategies that hedge or try to take out psychology seem to be very difficult techniques, especially if any kind of leverage is involved.. and that is part of the reason that I become a bit skeptical of any leverage, and I tend to recognize some more moderate ways of attempting to achieve similar goals without leverage (or only limited leverage if you can figure out how to properly employ it).  Even just simple techniques of going long and closing longs, can become complicated, and if you add leverage on top of that, whewfta... becomes even more complicated to figure out.. and more likely to screw up.

 

A considerable number of those purported experts end up being wrong too, even though there might be some price points in which they ended up being write.. but many still might be saying to wait for two digits when the price is in the mid $200s.. and similar bullshit "waiting" assertions are made in modern times, too..

I've never advocated anything like that. I am only suggesting that an "always buy now" strategy is not optimal in terms of risk vs. reward. Maximizing my long terms BTC holdings is very important to me, and I am just imparting my experience since 2013 regarding the best way to do that.

Hey... I like a lot of your posts, so I suppose that we are just batting around some ideas here.  Each person does have to decide for themself what they believe is going to work and to try to put their ideas to practice.. and sure sometimes it does not work, sometimes they learn and sometimes they do not.

Even if you, exstasie, do not recall times in which you may have influenced folks to sit and wait, even though they maybe should have just bought, rather than waiting, sometimes bearish calls do cause people to overly play bearish scenarios or whatever, and of course, we can sometimes blame them, too for assigning too high of a probability to downward BTC price movements that do not end up materializing... so yeah, buy on every dip or buy every week, or some variation of these techniques are going to vary between different person, and maybe we even argue about which ones work better under which scenarios and if some of them just work better as an overall rule.. for example, when in doubt,  buy a little within your weekly budget rather than waiting.. or maybe just buy the whole weeks allowance.. surely discretionary matters, exist here..

[exstasie]

I think every investor should optimize their strategy. That's all I'm talking about. Even simple rules like "scale in during accumulation phases and scale out during blow off tops" will give you a huge edge over typical investors, who usually do the exact opposite.

It is possible that we are saying very similar things, even though you seem to be emphasizing the trading angle quite a bit more than me

I think this stuff applies to long term investment as much as swing trading. Investment is all about optimizing your capital. Multi-year drawdowns are a killer in terms of opportunity cost. When I see a multi-year bear market on the horizon in one asset or sector, I avoid it entirely. I say that as someone who both trades and invests.

However, I do believe that you and I emphasize degree a bit different, and you seem more inclined to recommend that investors get into trading early on

Not really. Market cycles and entry/exit strategies are just as relevant to investment as they are to trading. I get it, you advocate really strict DCA. There are other ways to invest, however.

If you are "investing no more than you can afford to lose" then maybe you should not be giving any fucks, rather than being in "pain" from such short to medium term (and seemingly long term) that ends up going up in the long run..

Spoken like someone who has been around for years, made a lot of money off BTC, and has the benefit of hindsight.

Capitulation happens for a reason: because of investors and bull traders who can't take the pain anymore. I've seen it too many times to ignore it as a phenomenon.

Even if you, exstasie, do not recall times in which you may have influenced folks to sit and wait, even though they maybe should have just bought, rather than waiting, sometimes bearish calls do cause people to overly play bearish scenarios or whatever

There's been plenty of times when people should have waited or sold, rather than bought, too. What's your point?

[Wind_FURY]

I believe some of the comments on Twitter are right.

2025, the year we look back, and remember the "good old days" when we had the golden opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $10,000 $25,000-$30,000.

FTFY

Am I too bold with my above intervention into your contents, Wind_FURY?

Hahaha, no. I believe it won't make a difference if someone bought Bitcoin priced at $10,000, $20,000, or $30,000, when it's on its price-discovery-path to 6 digits, going to 7.

[STT]

It will be below 10,000 again its just a question of how long, months, a year or a day perhaps or just a few minutes as some news allows a spike to envelop orders on exchanges.  The price is never perfectly accurate as it largely relies on only partially efficient price discovery  systems and unsophisticated traders for a varied supply and much of the supply is not listed or stored on an exchange.   The time span of selling and also buying will always vary according to the type of market participant.    Theres going to be some people who have BTC stored like a coin down the back of the sofa and they wont sell because they forgot they even have it, source for that is myself and others Ive read as the variance in BTC worth has meant we have pockets stored accidentally and still recoverable.     I always go for the trend not trying to select absolute particular peaks or lows and I believe we traverse quite a diverse range.   Watch the 200 day average if nothing else imo.

[JayJuanGee]

It will be below 10,000 again its just a question of how long, months, a year or a day perhaps or just a few minutes as some news allows a spike to envelop orders on exchanges. 

Of course, that is the million dollar question.

Personally, I believe that we are easily within striking distance of returning to 4 digits before we surpass $13,880 - but once we surpass $13,880 it wlll become less likely to return to 4 digits.

Also, if we surpass $17,250 without returning to 4 digits, then it becomes even a farther away likelihood that 4 digits will ever be witnessed again.

Sure, you say that it is inevitable, but your assignment of "inevitability" seems to be too high of an assignment of probabilities because there are very few things that are guaranteed in BTC prices within bitcoinlandia (except perhaps the price that we currently are at, while we are at it).

The price is never perfectly accurate as it largely relies on only partially efficient price discovery  systems and unsophisticated traders for a varied supply and much of the supply is not listed or stored on an exchange.  

Agree.  All important factors.

The time span of selling and also buying will always vary according to the type of market participant.    Theres going to be some people who have BTC stored like a coin down the back of the sofa and they wont sell because they forgot they even have it, source for that is myself and others Ive read as the variance in BTC worth has meant we have pockets stored accidentally and still recoverable.     I always go for the trend not trying to select absolute particular peaks or lows and I believe we traverse quite a diverse range.   Watch the 200 day average if nothing else imo.

There seems to be increased fractional reserve and/or rehypothecation going on in bitcoin too, which could end up having some explosive effects on BTC price... NOT for sure, but possible.

[Wind_FURY]

There might be two types of people in the forum, under the current state of the market. Bullish people, and people who can't/won't accept that it's a bull market.

[exstasie]

There seems to be increased fractional reserve and/or rehypothecation going on in bitcoin too, which could end up having some explosive effects on BTC price...

What makes you say that? Are there new Tether rumors or something?

I remember Caitlin Long trying to get Bakkt to publicly comment on their rehypothecation and commingling policies but I don't think they ever did. I assume it will happen to some degree, but I think Bakkt is still relatively small in terms of holdings.

Does anyone know if and how we can view the total holdings in their vault?

[JayJuanGee]

There seems to be increased fractional reserve and/or rehypothecation going on in bitcoin too, which could end up having some explosive effects on BTC price...

What makes you say that? Are there new Tether rumors or something?

I don't get caught up in the Tether FUD stories, and I consider Tether to largely be a positive force on bitcoin, bitcoin prices and of course gravitating into various shitcoins, too... but still providing a lot of liquidity in ways that might be more difficult to accomplish in a world without tether - even though bitcoin is still going to do good whether we have tether in this world or not.

I remember Caitlin Long trying to get Bakkt to publicly comment on their rehypothecation and commingling policies but I don't think they ever did. I assume it will happen to some degree, but I think Bakkt is still relatively small in terms of holdings.

Sure Caitlin Long is one of the most vocal about the rehypothication matter, and she is not the only person who is thinking about such tendencies that traditional financial entities have, which is also going to be tempting for many of the bitcoin exchanges and other third-party entities who hold BTC to inflate their values or not have the amount of BTC on hand that they claim to have  (so long as they can get away with it).  Yeah, I might not have solid information, but I am not going to act like these various third parties are going to be responsible and moral when we already know that they have pretty straight forward incentives to cheat so long as they do not get caught with their pants down.  Rehypothication is the most logical conclusion, and has been happening since bitcoin's inception (when the first third-party came into existence), and there is no reason to believe that it all of a suddenly stopped merely because BIG "honest" WALL Street players came into the scene.. Get real.. wall street players are even more likely to engage in shenanigans because they already know how to do it and get away with it... why would we need solid and direct evidence for such in order to have pretty strong senses that the rehypothication is an ongoing issue - until such time that there are meaningful holdings verification mechanisms in place, which currently, there are not.

Does anyone know if and how we can view the total holdings in their vault?

Yes.  They can show you, but then they can play trickery with that, too.  Of course, BTC HODLers continue to be concerned about these kinds of transparency matters (or should I say lack of transparency?)..... I am hoping that some of them get fucked over BIG time by a BIG ass BTC price move to the upside and they do not have the BTC that they proclaimed to have.   Some of them might learn from that kind of situation, and hopefully not too many innocent regular peeps get burned in such process.

[pooya87]

There might be two types of people in the forum, under the current state of the market. Bullish people, and people who can't/won't accept that it's a bull market.

human beings don't like change, that dislike may have different levels for different individuals but everyone is like that. market trend change is also a change that people don't like specially when they are stuck in one trend and have gotten used to it.
what we had recently is a trend change from more of a stable not being able to break the resistance to breakout, increased volume,...
we had the same thing back in 2018 too when people (me too for a little while) didn't want to believe the bull run is over and it was time for a bear market.

[Wind_FURY]

There might be two types of people in the forum, under the current state of the market. Bullish people, and people who can't/won't accept that it's a bull market.

human beings don't like change, that dislike may have different levels for different individuals but everyone is like that. market trend change is also a change that people don't like specially when they are stuck in one trend and have gotten used to it.

what we had recently is a trend change from more of a stable not being able to break the resistance to breakout, increased volume,...

we had the same thing back in 2018 too when people (me too for a little while) didn't want to believe the bull run is over and it was time for a bear market.

Or simply, we plebs are the victims of mood-manipulation through steady onslaught of false information, wrong opinions, and divisive takes.

Zoom out, there's only one Bitcoin trend.

[KTChampions]

There might be two types of people in the forum, under the current state of the market. Bullish people, and people who can't/won't accept that it's a bull market.

What about the bear market? A large number of people continued to deny this even when it was as obvious as possible. In general, this reasoning is good after the fact - I think at the moment no one will be able to say how long this positive will last and perhaps tomorrow (as well as on any other day) the price will start falling steadily.

[Wind_FURY]

There might be two types of people in the forum, under the current state of the market. Bullish people, and people who can't/won't accept that it's a bull market.

What about the bear market? A large number of people continued to deny this even when it was as obvious as possible.

Convert daily price chart to weekly, zoom out to maximum, and ask ourselves as humble plebs, "Where's the bear market"?

In general, this reasoning is good after the fact - I think at the moment no one will be able to say how long this positive will last and perhaps tomorrow (as well as on any other day) the price will start falling steadily.

You don't believe Bitcoin's price will have 6 digits by 2025?

[KTChampions]

What about the bear market? A large number of people continued to deny this even when it was as obvious as possible.

Convert daily price chart to weekly, zoom out to maximum, and ask ourselves as humble plebs, "Where's the bear market"?

Can we take any period? What do you think about 2018?

In general, this reasoning is good after the fact - I think at the moment no one will be able to say how long this positive will last and perhaps tomorrow (as well as on any other day) the price will start falling steadily.

You don't believe Bitcoin's price will have 6 digits by 2025?

Yes, such levels seem extremely doubtful to me. Even taking into account the upcoming halving (next), the earnings of miners will be huge (and these are the costs that the system incurs during its operation).

[MonsterV]

only people with big patience and capital can buy every dip for the coin and  hold for a month or a years, mostly small traders like me that dont have really good capital to start will buy the coin that i wish to invested if the coin turn out green 1% or when the bitcoin price spike to above $10,000, that's how im trade as small traders.

[Wind_FURY]

What about the bear market? A large number of people continued to deny this even when it was as obvious as possible.

Convert daily price chart to weekly, zoom out to maximum, and ask ourselves as humble plebs, "Where's the bear market"?

Can we take any period? What do you think about 2018?

Take that period, but you would be thankful for that period once Bitcoin is priced at $100,000, and you zoom out. You don't believe it?

In general, this reasoning is good after the fact - I think at the moment no one will be able to say how long this positive will last and perhaps tomorrow (as well as on any other day) the price will start falling steadily.

You don't believe Bitcoin's price will have 6 digits by 2025?

Yes, such levels seem extremely doubtful to me. Even taking into account the upcoming halving (next), the earnings of miners will be huge (and these are the costs that the system incurs during its operation).

Some people also said that Bitcoin would never surge to $10,000. Here we are.

only people with big patience and capital can buy every dip for the coin and  hold for a month or a years, mostly small traders like me that dont have really good capital to start will buy the coin that i wish to invested if the coin turn out green 1% or when the bitcoin price spike to above $10,000, that's how im trade as small traders.

Plebs with real jobs can save a part of their salary, and also buy dips.

[exstasie]

You don't believe Bitcoin's price will have 6 digits by 2025?

Yes, such levels seem extremely doubtful to me. Even taking into account the upcoming halving (next), the earnings of miners will be huge (and these are the costs that the system incurs during its operation).

The revenues of miners would be huge, but that would be offset by increased costs of mining. Why does that make 6 digits so doubtful? Years ago, nobody expected the price or hash rate to be at these levels.

It's user and investor adoption that's driving the price. The hash rate is just following for the most part.

[JayJuanGee]

I think every investor should optimize their strategy. That's all I'm talking about. Even simple rules like "scale in during accumulation phases and scale out during blow off tops" will give you a huge edge over typical investors, who usually do the exact opposite.

It is possible that we are saying very similar things, even though you seem to be emphasizing the trading angle quite a bit more than me

I think this stuff applies to long term investment as much as swing trading. Investment is all about optimizing your capital. Multi-year drawdowns are a killer in terms of opportunity cost.

If you are retroactively analyzing where you could have been, then maybe you are concluding that the "opportunity costs are killer", and you also believe that you are being objective in your measurements, but if you don't really know what the fuck you are doing, but you are optimistic about the investment, you are probably way better off just engaging in DCA and working on other aspects of your life including earning money or spending time on other interests that you have.  Could be more of an opportunity cost trying to study and figure out an investment and then trying to figure out how to trade the BIG swings or whatever strategy that you might retrospectively conclude would have been better, when you could have been earning money or having fun in ways that are preferable to your own interests.

When I see a multi-year bear market on the horizon in one asset or sector, I avoid it entirely. I say that as someone who both trades and invests.

Good for you, but if someone cannot figure it out exactly, s/he may be better to just take action to start their dollar cost averaging rather than wasting their mental energies on trying to figure something out that they cannot really identify whether it is up, down or sideways and they have no fucking clue which way it might go in the short-term future even though they have confidence in it as an investment in the long term.

However, I do believe that you and I emphasize degree a bit different, and you seem more inclined to recommend that investors get into trading early on

Not really. Market cycles and entry/exit strategies are just as relevant to investment as they are to trading. I get it, you advocate really strict DCA. There are other ways to invest, however.

Yes.. I agree that there are other ways to invest, but one of the best ways to start is simple and straight forward DCA.. and it can be with a very small amount and the investor/trader can learn those other strategies, too if s/he wants.

Of course, if someone has some trading / investing timing skills than that person might be able to do better than DCA strategy, but that surely is not the majority of people .. I am not saying that they should not try to learn or whatever, but as a basic starting point, DCA is a great starting point absent some inclinations to learn or talent or whatever that might allow for some other non-DCA to possibly work better or to be better suited for some person coming into the BTC consideration for themself.

If you are "investing no more than you can afford to lose" then maybe you should not be giving any fucks, rather than being in "pain" from such short to medium term (and seemingly long term) that ends up going up in the long run..

Spoken like someone who has been around for years, made a lot of money off BTC, and has the benefit of hindsight.

It tends to take a long to to build an investment portfolio.. so, sure there can be some ways to get lucky, but I still tell people the same thing.. and of course, if my strategy has been successful, my strategy gives me more confidence that it works. 

yeah when i was in my first 5-10 years of investing, I was struggling to build the size of my investment portfolio, so I have more credibility after I have employed it for a long time.. and I would not really have confidence to say anything when I am in the early years, and I was likely still learning a lot from others, so I really was not in a position to share any information because I was confused about what I was doing and whether it was going to actually work.. but through the years, I am better able to share it, and I am also in a position that I can share it.. and to help people who might be similar to where I was in my earlier years and to give them some ideas to benefit them in their thinking, planning and their confidence regarding what they are doing.  Some people may learn methods that are even better than my own, too.

Capitulation happens for a reason: because of investors and bull traders who can't take the pain anymore. I've seen it too many times to ignore it as a phenomenon.

That is why we try to figure out strategies so we do not get ourselves into such a pickle... psychologically or financially.

Even if you, exstasie, do not recall times in which you may have influenced folks to sit and wait, even though they maybe should have just bought, rather than waiting, sometimes bearish calls do cause people to overly play bearish scenarios or whatever

There's been plenty of times when people should have waited or sold, rather than bought, too. What's your point?

My point is that it is better to create a plan and to act on that plan, even if the plan ends up being waiting, but more frequently, it is better to DCA.. which just means investing right away, even if it is a small amount.  Of course, frequently, investors can plan to buy on dips too, but better to act than to wait... and part of acting may well be planning and setting parameters for some of the money.. which would be the combination of DCA, buying on dips HODLing. and sure after building up an investment position then maybe selling some on the way up too.

Let's say that some hypothetical person has $6k that s/he can invest right now, and $6k that s/he knows is coming in through cash flow over the next 6 months that s/he is going to be able to invest.  Therefore, s/he has $12k that is going to come available over the next 6 months.  S/he can create a plan that involves how to use that $12k over the next 6 months, and sure, the person could just have a plan that waits for a certain price point or the person can combine DCAing and buying on dips.. There is discretion, and my suggestion would be for the person to figure out for themselves what they are going to do and to be able to have a plan either way, and my own plan involves putting some of the money to work right away, and I give less than two shits if the BTC price ends up going in one direction or another because I am trying get a stake into BTC and also to prepare for the BTC price to go either way... I personally have other investments as well, so I understand that the considerations might be different if the person was brand spanking new to investing, so the $12k was the only money that they have... but there are all kinds of scenarios, and sure, I am leaning towards action right away, but I am also accepting that individuals might set their plans up differently, and one of the main things would be to think through various possible scenarios to figure out comfort levels for a variety of scenarios rather than just presuming that you know which way the price is going to go and to put all eggs into betting into a BTC price direction that might not end up playing out.

[Wind_FURY]

You don't believe Bitcoin's price will have 6 digits by 2025?

Yes, such levels seem extremely doubtful to me. Even taking into account the upcoming halving (next), the earnings of miners will be huge (and these are the costs that the system incurs during its operation).

The revenues of miners would be huge, but that would be offset by increased costs of mining. Why does that make 6 digits so doubtful? Years ago, nobody expected the price or hash rate to be at these levels.

Plus increased hashing power from new miners, or expansion of mining operations.

It's user and investor adoption that's driving the price. The hash rate is just following for the most part.

I used to believe that, but miners are speculators too. They can increase their hashing power if they think Bitcoin will surge at some point in the future, which is "when", not "if".

Miners also sell "virgin Bitcoins" at a premium.

[exstasie]

but if you don't really know what the fuck you are doing, but you are optimistic about the investment

Honestly, that sounds like someone who shouldn't be investing in anything.

Good for you, but if someone cannot figure it out exactly, s/he may be better to just take action to start their dollar cost averaging rather than wasting their mental energies on trying to figure something out that they cannot really identify whether it is up, down or sideways and they have no fucking clue which way it might go in the short-term future even though they have confidence in it as an investment in the long term.

With such an abundance of good and free information available, I think it's absurd to say someone is capable of doing in-depth analysis on Bitcoin's long term fundamentals, but is incapable of learning the very basics of investing.

Even if you want to advocate blindly buying into long term bear markets, I am saying there are simple measures one can take to improve their position, like weighted averaging: analyze the range over a given time period and weight your buys towards the bottom, not the top.

For some reason, you seem staunchly opposed to the idea of anyone doing anything whatsoever to improve upon a DCA approach.

Capitulation happens for a reason: because of investors and bull traders who can't take the pain anymore. I've seen it too many times to ignore it as a phenomenon.

That is why we try to figure out strategies so we do not get ourselves into such a pickle... psychologically or financially.

But aren't you talking about giving advice to other people?

You seem to assume everyone buying the top will hold for the next 5 years and end up profiting. I've been around long enough to know that most people who buy the top also sell the bottom.

That's why I only advise DCA within certain parameters. Anybody buying into a bubble or a bubble pop should not have any intention of holding for long, unless they enjoy the pain of losing money and capitulating.