Hopefully there will be another big correction happening,
hopefully no other bad things will happen, indeed we have to analyze it first so you don't get trapped in a FUD trap,
whales wants a cheap Bitcoin price!
Didn't we get a pretty decent correction?
No, 17% is more like "meh", I'll dca a bit but ain't gonna put my life savings in.
We can neither presume that we are going to get greater dips than 17% nor can we presume that monineklutak has established any kind of meaningful stake in bitcoin.
Sure, corrections of 30% to 40% or even greater than 50% can come at any time, but we cannot necessarily presume them - especially after having nearly 3 years of a large number of corrections... and bringing us down about 85% from the December 2017 top... and even a few pretty decent additional corrections therein.
If someone is just starting to get serious about bitcoin, then they are trying to figure out a plan, but they might NOT have figured out how much of a dip is enough of a dip, and so in that regard, our acknowledgement of a 17% dip might be one in which it could have been advantageous to have taken some action...
I am NOT a big fan of wait.. until the person wanting to accumulate BTC feels that they are decently prepared for UP.. or at least have some BTC... so sure, the devil is still in the details to a considerable degree regarding if some person might feel that they are decently and adequately prepared for UP given their assessment of their circumstances.
Obviously should of done that when Bitcoin was sub at a >50% discount, but some people will never learn.
Well yeah.. that was last year, the year before and the year before.. we may well be in a bit of a different market, and yes I might also be preaching to the choir, but any of us who might not have any coins, but we are waiting for sub $16k, that might not happen... sure it could, but seems to me that it is good to prepare for either possibility..
You are wishing for more correction, monineklutak?
Yes! Always.
At some point people may reach a point in which they have already prepared for UP, and maybe even overstocked in BTC so they feel that they have enough for UP. Once you reach that status, then you may well prefer UP. I have been largely in that position since late 2014.. but my stacking of BTC in 2015 and 2016 solidified the position more, and the raise in BTC prices has also further solidified that position. Some BTC HODLers, once you get into a mostly HODLing status, don't necessarily find any advantages for downs.. Of course, it could make the BTC price more stable to have Downs along the way, and of course, no asset goes straight up.. but still, if you are mostly invested in the asset, then there should not be any problems with mostly continuous and ongoing UP.
Why does everyone want to get even richer even quicker?
I don't think that is the dilemma.. it is a matter of already being prepared for UP.. .
I understand that if you are not prepared for UP, or you do not have a good income, it could take 10, 20 30 or more years to have enough cashflow in order to feel prepared for UP... I am not necessarily presuming that everyone can get in, but surely, there are likely a decent number of people without large cashflows who feel that they need more time to accumulate a sufficient stash of BTC.
The longer we stay under $20K, the richer we get by investing more right?
Not necessarily.
However I understand that there are market dynamics, too.... and this last BTC price run from early September broke through resistances in the $12,500 area, $13,880 area, and the $17,250 area.. without too many revisiting of any of these prices...
But a down correction is NOT a condition precedent for UP, so we could just end up continuing UP from here. I do not proclaim to know which way the BTC price is going to go... and of course, I am always prepared for some down because my practice is to shave off small amounts of BTC on the way UP so that if the BTC price does correct down, then I will have cash to be able to buy as the BTC price is correcting, but that still does not take away my preference for up.. even though I am somewhat trying to be emotionally neutral and if the price does not go up,... that is fine, too.. I have enough BTC either way.
I literally would be happy if Bitcoin stayed under $20K for another decade, I kid you not, as long as it held above around $5-10K. The longer we stay low for, the longer the bull market will be.
Sure.. understandable if you are in a position that you are still building your investment portfolio, then it is understandable that you are more able to take advantage of flat or down or even NO rush in the BTC price going up... however, that does not seem to be the world that we are living in. BTC looks quite poised to head up from here, whether we like it or not, and BTC does not give any shits about what we might prefer. It seems to be that kind of an asset, and sure there are no guarantees what BTC is going to doi even though the most convincing of BTC price prediction models seem to show pretty decent probabilities that BTC prices are heading UP from here rather than either down or sideways... and sure there might be some consolidation in this area and even decent corrections, but it still remains a good approach to attempt to prepare for UP as well as you can.
You already know the three most convincing of BTC price prediction models, but it does not hurt to repeat them. Namely 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.
How much of a correction do you need (want)?
Something healthy, from a 2x in the past 6 weeks, 25-35% would be perfect. Re-test that $12-14K range ideally, rule that out now as ever needing testing again.
Sure. I am surely not saying that such corrections are NOT possible, but for sure, as I already asserted they are NOT a condition precedent for the BTC price to continue UPpity. I give little shits which way it goes because I am prepared for any of the directions of UP, Down or sideways.. and of course, I would prefer it does not go to zero or have some outrageous event that causes it to revisit the 208 week moving average (which is approaching $7,200.,. moving up $100 every couple of weeks in recent times).. that would suck.. but I have buy orders that go down to $5k.. so I could deal with it, even though it would not be a preferred situation from my perspective... and probably would not even fair well for the prospects of bitcoin.. but we are not really in that kind of posture, and if we are attempting to be realistic, we are seeming to posture towards UP rather than DOWN.. even though corrections can happen, as you have been saying (and I am not really saying anything different, except that the BTC price does not really seem to be postured very well in that direction, and maybe you are giving higher odds to down, than I am giving.. perhaps?)
I will note that it is a bit strange to be hoping for down rather than UP, but sure, perhaps 3.5 years (going by your forum registration, monineklutak) was not enough time for you to buy some bitcoin at lower prices.
I think it's strange that those who are convinced by a long-term strategy, that Bitcoin will rise in value by XXXX%, would want prices to continue going up in an unsustainable parabolic manner.
I don't give any shits... I just go by the models... so it is what it is.
When I got into BTC, I had hoped for 6% price appreciation per year in order that it averages at least the same as my traditional investments. So the first few years, I did not get that 6% per year, but in the end it averaged out to way more than 6% per year, and seems to have been proving itself to be performing quite beyond an average of 6% per year.
In recent times, I have largely considered that it might be more reasonable to expect it to rise 12%-ish per year rather than 6%, and I use the 208-week moving average to attempt to figure that out... So really, I give less that two shits in terms of my preferences, because bitcoin has been way out performing my expectations and seems to be poised to continue to way out perform my preferences, and it does not really matter what I want.
I can only imagine that if you live of your BTC and don't work anymore, then great, up is your friend. But if you want to accumulate as much as possible before $20K is broken, then down is better. I only earn so much each week that I can average in, like most people, therefore time is the real enemy here - not price.
We are saying similar things... and we seem to be just in differing positions, so I am not really sure what to say.. because you can ONLY do what you can do in order to accumulate BTC.. maybe your cashflow is not sufficient, I do not know. I know that when I was in college, my investments kind of sucked, because I was investing in myself.. but still these days we are finding undermining of the dollar in various kinds of ways, so surely each of us has to figure out how to balance our BTC position and figure out ways that we are prepared for UP.. or maximizing our attempt to figure out the BTC price direction in the event that we feel that we are not adequately prepared for UP.
The first 25 years of my investing, I did not find any kind of asset like BTC.. so BTC is a unique kind of asset that NOT all people are going to take advantage, and sure dragonvslinux, one of your advantages remains that you know about BTC and you have been taking actions for at least a few years.. Maybe some of your actions have been inadequate in various regards, but seems to me that you are more advantaged to know about BTC than nearly 99% of the population of the world that have not taken much if any stake in BTC and do not even know about it, except maybe recognizing the word.
I'd prefer to be buying discounts, than looking at the premiums thinking it's a bit expensive.
I am talking about "is" not "ought".. so, again, bitcoin does not give any shit about what we think.. we just have to attempt to play what we believe is going to happen to the best of our ability in terms of our own situation. Since I have been stacking sats since late 2013 and stacking both dollars and sats since late 2015, my portfolio and my system just buys if the price goes down and sells if the price goes up, and of course, I prefer up.. and of course, I do not really sell very much on the way up.. and it ends up being plenty of stacking of dollars that can be used in the event that the BTC price goes down, but if it does not go down, then I just spend those dollars, at some point.. At some point, just remove them out of my system and spend them.
I understand that this particular thread is not about selling it is about buying the dip and HODLing.. which kind of presumes that you are already prepared for UP.. but you have to get to being prepared for UP before you should be fucking around with selling any of your BTC. .and that is how I think about it, even though people think differently about how to approach the matter... my approach has been to overstock in BTC so that I don't give any shits if I happen to shave a bit extra of them off as the BTC price goes up. But you gotta get to that level first, in my thinking.. which seems to be what this thread is counseling.
This also comes down to me not really being that motivated to buy more Bitcoin once it passes $20K, I'll leave this to the noobs, instead just sitting on what I have, trade some alts for satoshi gains in the meantime, ride it out to 6 figures. Chill.
I am not sure if BTC price matters, exactly, in terms of figuring out if you have enough BTC. Of course, on a personal level, you can probably plot out your own situation too, and kind of get an idea about if you have enough, or not. If you believe that you have accumulated enough BTC, then so be it.. that's your judgement.
Of course if you have not accumulated enough BTC then you would have to buy at whatever happens to be the price.. and yeah, by definition noobs and no coiners have likely not accumulated enough BTC, yet. That is for them to decide and to figure out based on their own situation and base on their view of bitcoin an those other individual factors..
Of course, we can play roles to help noobs, no coiners and pre-coiners to figure out their BTC accumulation strategies, whether it is buying on dips, DCA, HODL and other strategies that have worked for us in the past and seem to be prudent strategies in bitcoin, including learning about bitcoin as the space is likely going to continue to evolve and we will continue to learn about it as it evolves.
I am thinking that there are going to be plenty of peeps, institutions and governments accumulating above $20k, too.... or at least that seems to be the current posture of where this whole matter is going and is likely to go.
