Going to give this reply a go...
That's the spirit!!!!
I'm not going to argue that if you don't have any, then current any price is the correct price to buy, followed by lower prices if they come. A someone invested "as much as possible" in Bitcoin, as you know, I often overlook that my perspective is very different from others, based on how invested I already am. If I didn't have any coin at the moment, for sure I'd be buying up what I can, knowing that I basically fucked up not buying it for the past 3 years.
Well, yeah.. some people have no clue at all about what bitcoin is.
There are likely degrees of differences in these kinds of people including some of them who have heard the name and think they know what BTC is, but if push comes to shove and you try to get them to explain it, they have no clue.
There are likely others who have some ideas about what bitcoin is, but they failed to sit down for a few hours, or a day or two or a week or whatever amount of time that it takes in order to figure out how to add bitcoin to their investment portfolio (to the extent that they have any kind of investment portfolio that they have actively set up or sometimes their employer might have helped them to set up an investment portfolio, but still does not mean that thy have taken active steps on their own to figure out any kind of investment beyond some minimum investments... perhaps buying a house or believing that buying a car is an investment.. hahahahaha).
If I had sold it all recently to become a no-coiner, I'd be buying it back regardless of price.
Actually, that is correct. Once you know about it, then you are advantaged. Once you have set up btc investment channels, then you are also advantaged because you know how to manuever the basics.
Sure, it is possible that all your wealth is removed (or mine, if we use me as an example) and then you are able to jump straight back into it.. even if maybe you have to start from scratch.. and maybe in some hypothetical scenarios you would ONLY be able to invest $30 a week.. but you would figure out a way to prioritize getting (or reestablishing) your BTC stake - whatever you could reasonably accomplish under your new hypothetical circumstances..
Panic buying basically.
perhaps..
To me it's also about desiring low risk exposure to fiat, rather than gaining value due to Bitcoin, not so different from buying a house for example.
You mean building equity and then being able to borrow against it, if needed?
Maybe I'll just feel like I'll never have enough. It wouldn't matter if I had 100 or 1,000 BTC, if I could always buy more for cheaper that I know would appreciate in value in the long-term.
It could be a matter of your never having had reached that level.... so I don't know..
For example, if you invested 15% of your investment portfolio into bitcoin, and the remainder of your investments (which were sufficient to support you, so you could give less than two shits if BTC performs the same or better or even if it were to completely tank) and then BTC did 100x price appreciation, then all of a sudden the BTC portion of your investments are more than 95% the value of your other investments that had been enough to support you... so then all of a sudden you have something like more than .. 18x the amount that you need to support yourself.
So, it could have been that your idea of getting richie from BTC would have been if you BTC became equal to the amount of your other investments, so it would have become 50/50, but instead, it becomes 95/5... It seems that the investment had far exceeded your expectations.. and your needs.... and all of a sudden you have to step up your spending game because you have way more than what you had expected to have.
Probably this says a lot more about my personality of never feeling fully satisfied, even though I'm aware that nothing is perfect in life.
Could be. Sure, you can find things to spend the money on.. .. as long as you have your health.
I will actually be happy when Bitcoin finally breaks $20K, knowing that I can sit back and enjoy the ride from then, buy some dips when I can, but otherwise the train has left the station and I'm on fully board. But while price remains <$20K, I'll always prefer the best discounts possible to buy into, knowing that these prices will likely never be seen again in our lives.
Since I don't know your circumstances, it seems to me that you are just picking artificial and random price points.. so hopefully sitting back is a plan that works for you.
There's also perhaps sentimental value, this being my first full cycle from getting in mid-bull market in 2017, not wanting the new cycle to start yet, as I've enjoyed the current one so much.
Again seeming a bit arbitrary.. It's not like bitcoin comes to an end... but however you feel comfortable thinking about it, that remains your prerogative..
But I'll always be building my investment portfolio, that'll be never-ending to me. Whether it's buying dips now, in the future, trading shitcoins for satoshis, etc. I'll always be balancing my risk reward and exposure to diversity etc. Hence prefer cheaper prices than expensive ones, it's not that I'm not prepared for up, I feel very well positioned for it.
You seem to be contradicting yourself... you were anticipating sitting back after the BTC price crosses over $20k.. and then now you are talking about staying active no matter what...
Seems to be a bit of a contradiction.
My idea on the topic is to trade BIGGER and BIGGER swings as the BTC price goes up, so in that way as the price goes up, my order s are not triggered as often.. I do not completely stop.. but I would likely have to spend way less time engaged in such activities...
That has already been happening for me in terms of my orders getting more and more spread out.. NOT just in terms of dollars but in terms of percentages of spread that triggers orders on either end.
That's the thing, if we return to the 200/208 Week MA (nice use of 4-year moving average by the way), then I'd be happy with this
Yeah, but it is NOT really that time of the cycle to return to the 208 week moving average.
Sure we returned to it during the 2014/2015 dippening.. and sure we returned to it for the December 2018 dippening.. and we crossed below it for several days during the March 2020 liquidation event.. but it tends to NOT be a frequent occurance to be returning to it all of the time.
I doubt that we are returning to such 208 week moving average until after we get some meaningful run-up in this cycle.. whether that is within 6 months, 1 year or 18 months... but, we do not seem to be in a position to be returning to that level at this time.. even if you would like something like that to happen, seems pretty damned low odds.. even though not impossible as we both seem to be recognizing... but you seem to be considering such return as more likely than I consider it to be - prior to 18 months or so.
By the way, if you are largely prepared for up, then you cannot even really take advantage of such a price drop, anyhow.. so many of us end up largely HODLing through such event, if it were to occur.. maybe we pick up some coins, here or there, but does not significantly increase our stash, especially if we are mostly expecting UPpity rather than DOWNity.
I understand that this particular thread is not about selling it is about buying the dip and HODLing.. which kind of presumes that you are already prepared for UP.. but you have to get to being prepared for UP before you should be fucking around with selling any of your BTC. .and that is how I think about it, even though people think differently about how to approach the matter... my approach has been to overstock in BTC so that I don't give any shits if I happen to shave a bit extra of them off as the BTC price goes up. But you gotta get to that level first, in my thinking.. which seems to be what this thread is counseling.
Sure, I completely agree, people do need to be prepared for up, as I have been for many months now. As you know I only sold 3.5% recently, that I'm still satisfied with (if I didn't my stop loss would now be around $17.9K probably). This was the money I couldn't afford to lose, whereas there are many that are waiting for dips that might never come for sure.
We seem to be saying slightly different things. I am saying prepare for both directions... of course, I don't deal with stop losses and that kind of bullshit.. but hey, you seem to like that stuff...
I largely just play longs... but I claim to NOT be a trader, too.. even though I do shave some profits on the way up.. largely for insurance and psychological purposes..
I say I won't be accumulating above $20K, but I realise this also depends on if a dip happens or not. For me I'm more interested in my average price, that now sits around the 200 Week MA, whereas in reality I'd like it to be around $10K, but alas, lack of dips.
I just did a quickie look at that 200 week moving average and it is almost $7,500... so I am not sure about what you are saying. If your current costs per BTC are about $7,500, why would you prefer your costs to be higher than $7,500?
Seems that my costs per BTC are going down with the passage of time, even if I buy at higher prices because any new BTC are bought with proceeds from sales.. so based on that kind of formula, the newly purchased BTC would come out to be partly free.
Probably if we reach $50K, then my opinion would change and an average of $20K would seem more reasonable, as for me having positions 150% above price is a good reason to be increasing risk, but ideally from discounts not potential premiums.
Seems kind of rigid.. but whatever floats your boat.
None the less, I only like increasing my risk with good discounts, so whether this be a discount from here, or $50K, I'm ok with waiting it out. It might sound strange I know, but if we go from $4K to $40K say without a significant correction, then I believe the correction could be huge, like 50%, even 75% dare I say it, like $14K to $4K all over again, rather than 25-35%.
Sure.. could be.... not guaranteed, but could be.
Highly unlikely I know, but I prefer to be prepared for that as well as every other scenario. Because in a less volitile and higher liquidity market that Bitcoin is now in, price shouldn't going as parabolic as it used to, as you probably know. If this bull market structure is completely different from previous ones, then anything becomes possible, especially the unexpected.
Fair enough that you are trying to be prepared for a variety of scenarios... and I consider myself doing the same thing... but using different tactics... and a lot more incrementalisms in terms of both my BTC sales and my BTC buys, so it seems.
That said, I agree institutions will likely buy in heavily above $20K, likely leading to a rally that few of us have anticipated. I won't be surprised by near future prices personally, but I'm still anticipating like many, that $20K to be broken early next year than this one.
I don't really know, but it surely could happen at any time. I was surprised for ATH to be broken on November 30.. so that breaking of ATH seems to create ongoing UPpity.. but hey, I would not be surprised for a delay of a month or longer.. just far from a given when the current odds seem to be in favor of $20k being broken soon (imminently).,. which would be in the coming days or weeks rather than waiting more than a month.. but hey.. what do I know?
Any noob reading this must think "So I should buy now but others who are well invested aren't and are instead selling a bit".
Noobs have to think about their own situation rather than trying to figure out what others might be doing or not... blah blah blah. Sure part of the formula for anyone does have to do with considering where the price might go.. but at the same time, they should not be fucking around with trying to guess price direction. So three part of their buy formula should be to buy right away with part, set another part up for DCA and set another part up for buying on dips. Those are the three parts and they keep doing their three parts until their accumulation goals are reached.. then they can start fucking around, after they reach their accumulation goals.. that is my little suggestion - but in the end all peeps are responsible for their lil selfies and they can do what they like. I always give the same advice.. and sure of course, there could be a bit of tailoring that individuals do based on if the BTC price seems more inclined for DOWNity rather than UPpity, too.. individuals will vary in their approach and some will come to and develop smarter behaviors than others.
I realise this can sound somewhat hypocritical, but it all comes down to exposure levels and risk tolerance, much less about whether now is a good time to buy or not. It depends on the individual and their exposure already.
Sure.,. each person should be looking at their cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, their timeline, risk tolerance and their time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak their plans which also might involve reallocating from time to time and/or trading.
just wait the DIP will always happen, a big correction will come if the $ 19700 resistance fails again,
especially now that Bitcoin price is really on the threshold between pump or dump,
You must not know bitcoin...
There is no such thing as always...
You might be able to reasonably assert "most of the time," or you might be able to assert "frequently"... but "always"... yeah right.
You must be new here.
This is the most simplest and accurate truth of them all. Nothing is a guarantee in the Bitcoin world, apart from the fixed supply and a few other factors, SHA256 and the like.
Hahahahahaha
Yes, and it is one of my most favorite things to beat people up about.. overly expressing certainty in either direction, even though I do let bullish proclamations get more passes on the topic... call me a hypocrite..
You can even be very confident, or very sure about the future direction price, but it will never be the case 100% of the time.
Basic statistics = anything can happen.
Sometimes the long shots do happen and sometimes the odds are looking pretty damned favorable for a certain direction.. even though I rarely have feelings that are greater than 60%, especially in the short run.. but that's me.. I am a bit of a waffler and also a bit of a criticizer when I see someone expressing certainty that gets into the 80% to 100% range.. I kind of give a pass to those who are more certain than me.. in the 60-% to 80% range.. even though some times I will harp on them, too... You might be an example of that.. I mean you might be an example of someone who I harp on for seeming to be expressing greater certainties than I believe, even though we might only be off by 5%, 10% or some variation like that.
