Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[brainactive]

Has there been any analysis on which day of the month (or day of the week) tends to be best to buy when implementing a DCA strategy (e.g. perhaps prices tend to drop at end of month)?

[1714838924]

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[1714838924]

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[Wind_FURY]

I will never buy on a seller’s market when everything is overpriced.

Yeah, but how are you going to know?   That's part of the problem.

It was very clear for me. Wasn’t it very clear for you? When you debated last month that everyone should be buying “at any price” and apply a DCA strategy?

I am not debating.  I said what I said, and I have not changed.  Get the fuck started sooner rather than later, get your shit together and start buying.  Yes, DCA is the best starting strategy.


What has been your possible average or meaningful budget for buying BTC for the past 5 years (when you registered on the forum), Wind_FURY?

Let's just say... $1,000 per month

Have you beaten the DCA performance for the past 5 years?

Total invested would have been $65,250 and you would have gotten about 13.5x return.  Pretty damned good no?  You are more greedy than that?  Gold would have gotten you 34.24% over that same time and equities would have gotten you 42.09% over that same period.  

If you could have gotten a better return than 13.5x on bitcoin or any other investment strategy, let me know.. There is no reason to poo poo bitcoin's historical performance because even if you ONLY end up getting a faction of that 13.5x in the next 5-10 years, bitcoin is still likely going to be a good investment and DCA investing is a solid approach to investing in it in the coming 5 to 10 years.

On paper it’s easy, but capital is limited, we should use it efficiently, plus stress should be avoided.

I will agree with you that 1) showing historical results in terms of following a set system (whether DCA or otherwise) is not necessarily going to reflect either what people actually ended up doing or 2) that they would necessarily be actually cashing out at this particular time (so it is "on paper" because they did not cash out) and 3) that future results might not be in the same proportions or even perhaps in the same direction.  Let's take each of these arguable points.. 1 by 1.

1)  I will agree with the idea that many people might either proclaim that they are following a system or aspire to follow a system, but the reality of the world is that they either do not follow it or they do not really understand how to put the theory into practice in a way that would be meaningful in their carrying it out.  I provided you with an idea of $1k per month, and sure that might sound doable, but frequently cashflows get mixed up and it may well be more realistic to aim for lower basic amounts and then just add to it or even subtract from it, so there might be some flexibility in the amount or even the timelines of when it is invested, but if we look back at the history after 5 years had passed, we could see some patterns and even take some averages that might end up averaging at $1k per month or some other amount, but the more consistent that the amounts, then the more that they would end up matching with the DCA link that I had provided... and of course, you can tweak the amounts in the DCA link, too.. It would be nice if such DCA link allowed more flexibility in setting dates... but it still should be able to give an overall ballpark idea and surely when you are measuring averages and ballparks from a website like the DCA one, that would not be even as close to being able to plug your own actual facts into a spreadsheet and to figure out exactly your own performance at various points in time (sure some spreadsheet skills can be helpful for showing actual performance at various points in time).

2)   I am not sure how much it would be necessary to elaborate specifically on this point, but with any longer term investment, it is going to tend to be "on paper" for a whole hell of a lot of time until you cash out, and sometimes estimating what should have or could have happened does not really match too well with what actually happened, and each person has differing skills, abilities, time and resources to be able to dedicate towards both analyzing what is happening or what happened and to confirm if anything can be learned from such analysis in order to change (hopefully improve) plans and practices.

3)  Many of us are familiar with the expression that past results do not guarantee future results.. but we still should be able to recognize that bitcoin remains a damned good investment, the fundamentals have not gotten worse, and adoption remains quite low.  Also, even if there might had been some institutional front running, this latest correction does seem to have provided some opportunities for regular joe blows to get their shit together and start investing in BTC because perhaps even some of the institutions have been scared off a bit.. (whether that institutional scaring off is going to last very long, might be another story).... In any event, I continue to argue that DCA is a great component of any longer term investment strategy as long as the fundamentals remain strong.. and that history can give some ideas, but not necessarily say what is going to happen exactly.. which is always the case.. even if you go back historically, you did not know how DCA-ing was all going to play out, but you followed such practice because it has been proven to be a decently good practice, and in some (perhaps many) cases it can end up paying off quite handsomely.


Another point, Wind_FURY is that you completely avoided answering my question in regards to the performance of your BTC investing strategy since your registration in the forum 5 years ago.  I am suspecting that your BTC returns are not even fucking close to 13.5x - which is in the ballpark of what you would have gotten from a fairly consistent, persistent and regular DCAing into BTC, and this method has been known and available and quite common for more than 30 years.. and surely it has been known to be a very popular method of investing into fundamentally sound investments (bitcoin or others.. not talking about shitcoins, here) because DCA is a solid approach.  

As I already mentioned, I started using the DCA method more or less when I started investing more than 30 years ago.. fuck close to 40 years ago... sorry to say.  I remember buying stupid-ass things like Government bonds on a regular basis.. and sure they stacked up for sure.... but it was a kind of DCA method, and the DCA method had been solid as fuck and continued to be a great method in bitcoin since I started in bitcoin in 2013, and the results show with the 42x in 7 years example that I gave you, and that is NOT just "on paper" because I could have and can cash that shit out any time that I want.  

Sure in September 2020, my cashing out of BTC at that point, would have only resulted in around 14.5x returns, but then if I had been able to cash out towards the top of the BTC price market at around $64,895 (which surely is not an easy thing to accomplish.. so just stay somewhat hypothetical with that thought), my returns would have been around 92x.. and that is not just on paper when that money is relatively liquid and there is a goddamned choice in terms of continuing to let it ride or to cash out some part or even to cash out all of it.  

So fuck off with implications of "paper profits" when it comes to making claims about something as increasingly liquid as bitcoin... there are no reasons to be stressing ideas of being trapped in a BTC investment at least in terms of even long term strategies (even though getting trapped - even in BTC - is possible for any investment if in a bad geographical area with fewer liquidation options or trying to time plays with a large amount of assets that might become harder to move all at once).

Imagine buying Bitcoin priced at $60,000 during the euphoria, when you could have waited and buy the dip during the fear. But that’s a good link, I’ll show it to some people later.

Yeah, you can "imagine" short term bullshit all that you want, and you seem to be scaring yourself out of either making or following a long term and consistent plan that largely will mellow out the short term scariness.

Remember the statement that it is not timing the market but time in the market.. which surely is not so much of an DCA strategy but a lump sum investment strategy that just suggests that you should be thinking long term.  

I have already said several times that it is my belief and practice that even any additional investment into BTC, such as continuing to DCA should be considered in terms of HODLing any new investment for at least 4 years (at least that should be the mindset when buying).  Of course, each of us should have quite a bit of discretion over our own investments, so there could well be circumstances, including high BTC uppity performance that might cause us to take some or all of our investment out of BTC or even majorly adjust and tweak our BTC strategies.. We have those kinds of discretions, even with investments that we initially considered to be long term investments, but we change our minds along the way.. at any time that we want.. even if we had initially considered the investment as a long term investment.. So, surely there are ways to have very firm stances and very firm strategies, but still NOT be locked in and to retain discretion to do whatever the fuck you want, even if you may well recognize the advantages of just staying with a locked in strategy (that is not really completely locked in. because of free will ....  that hopefully does not devolve into weak hands.. merely because you can do it does not mean that it is a good idea to do it. but whatever peeps going to vary on these matters too.   ).

From your link/example, it assumes that, an investor is very liquid and has $250 every week to buy Bitcoin in whatever price range. It also assumes that the stress of investing won’t affect him. But wouldn’t the “liquid investor” from your example beat 13.5x if he simply bought Bitcoin with the whole $65,250 5 years ago?

[JayJuanGee]

I will never buy on a seller’s market when everything is overpriced.

Yeah, but how are you going to know?   That's part of the problem.

It was very clear for me. Wasn’t it very clear for you? When you debated last month that everyone should be buying “at any price” and apply a DCA strategy?

I am not debating.  I said what I said, and I have not changed.  Get the fuck started sooner rather than later, get your shit together and start buying.  Yes, DCA is the best starting strategy.


What has been your possible average or meaningful budget for buying BTC for the past 5 years (when you registered on the forum), Wind_FURY?

Let's just say... $1,000 per month

Have you beaten the DCA performance for the past 5 years?

Total invested would have been $65,250 and you would have gotten about 13.5x return.  Pretty damned good no?  You are more greedy than that?  Gold would have gotten you 34.24% over that same time and equities would have gotten you 42.09% over that same period.  

If you could have gotten a better return than 13.5x on bitcoin or any other investment strategy, let me know.. There is no reason to poo poo bitcoin's historical performance because even if you ONLY end up getting a faction of that 13.5x in the next 5-10 years, bitcoin is still likely going to be a good investment and DCA investing is a solid approach to investing in it in the coming 5 to 10 years.

On paper it’s easy, but capital is limited, we should use it efficiently, plus stress should be avoided.

I will agree with you that 1) showing historical results in terms of following a set system (whether DCA or otherwise) is not necessarily going to reflect either what people actually ended up doing or 2) that they would necessarily be actually cashing out at this particular time (so it is "on paper" because they did not cash out) and 3) that future results might not be in the same proportions or even perhaps in the same direction.  Let's take each of these arguable points.. 1 by 1.

1)  I will agree with the idea that many people might either proclaim that they are following a system or aspire to follow a system, but the reality of the world is that they either do not follow it or they do not really understand how to put the theory into practice in a way that would be meaningful in their carrying it out.  I provided you with an idea of $1k per month, and sure that might sound doable, but frequently cashflows get mixed up and it may well be more realistic to aim for lower basic amounts and then just add to it or even subtract from it, so there might be some flexibility in the amount or even the timelines of when it is invested, but if we look back at the history after 5 years had passed, we could see some patterns and even take some averages that might end up averaging at $1k per month or some other amount, but the more consistent that the amounts, then the more that they would end up matching with the DCA link that I had provided... and of course, you can tweak the amounts in the DCA link, too.. It would be nice if such DCA link allowed more flexibility in setting dates... but it still should be able to give an overall ballpark idea and surely when you are measuring averages and ballparks from a website like the DCA one, that would not be even as close to being able to plug your own actual facts into a spreadsheet and to figure out exactly your own performance at various points in time (sure some spreadsheet skills can be helpful for showing actual performance at various points in time).

2)   I am not sure how much it would be necessary to elaborate specifically on this point, but with any longer term investment, it is going to tend to be "on paper" for a whole hell of a lot of time until you cash out, and sometimes estimating what should have or could have happened does not really match too well with what actually happened, and each person has differing skills, abilities, time and resources to be able to dedicate towards both analyzing what is happening or what happened and to confirm if anything can be learned from such analysis in order to change (hopefully improve) plans and practices.

3)  Many of us are familiar with the expression that past results do not guarantee future results.. but we still should be able to recognize that bitcoin remains a damned good investment, the fundamentals have not gotten worse, and adoption remains quite low.  Also, even if there might had been some institutional front running, this latest correction does seem to have provided some opportunities for regular joe blows to get their shit together and start investing in BTC because perhaps even some of the institutions have been scared off a bit.. (whether that institutional scaring off is going to last very long, might be another story).... In any event, I continue to argue that DCA is a great component of any longer term investment strategy as long as the fundamentals remain strong.. and that history can give some ideas, but not necessarily say what is going to happen exactly.. which is always the case.. even if you go back historically, you did not know how DCA-ing was all going to play out, but you followed such practice because it has been proven to be a decently good practice, and in some (perhaps many) cases it can end up paying off quite handsomely.


Another point, Wind_FURY is that you completely avoided answering my question in regards to the performance of your BTC investing strategy since your registration in the forum 5 years ago.  I am suspecting that your BTC returns are not even fucking close to 13.5x - which is in the ballpark of what you would have gotten from a fairly consistent, persistent and regular DCAing into BTC, and this method has been known and available and quite common for more than 30 years.. and surely it has been known to be a very popular method of investing into fundamentally sound investments (bitcoin or others.. not talking about shitcoins, here) because DCA is a solid approach.  

As I already mentioned, I started using the DCA method more or less when I started investing more than 30 years ago.. fuck close to 40 years ago... sorry to say.  I remember buying stupid-ass things like Government bonds on a regular basis.. and sure they stacked up for sure.... but it was a kind of DCA method, and the DCA method had been solid as fuck and continued to be a great method in bitcoin since I started in bitcoin in 2013, and the results show with the 42x in 7 years example that I gave you, and that is NOT just "on paper" because I could have and can cash that shit out any time that I want.  

Sure in September 2020, my cashing out of BTC at that point, would have only resulted in around 14.5x returns, but then if I had been able to cash out towards the top of the BTC price market at around $64,895 (which surely is not an easy thing to accomplish.. so just stay somewhat hypothetical with that thought), my returns would have been around 92x.. and that is not just on paper when that money is relatively liquid and there is a goddamned choice in terms of continuing to let it ride or to cash out some part or even to cash out all of it.  

So fuck off with implications of "paper profits" when it comes to making claims about something as increasingly liquid as bitcoin... there are no reasons to be stressing ideas of being trapped in a BTC investment at least in terms of even long term strategies (even though getting trapped - even in BTC - is possible for any investment if in a bad geographical area with fewer liquidation options or trying to time plays with a large amount of assets that might become harder to move all at once).

Imagine buying Bitcoin priced at $60,000 during the euphoria, when you could have waited and buy the dip during the fear. But that’s a good link, I’ll show it to some people later.

Yeah, you can "imagine" short term bullshit all that you want, and you seem to be scaring yourself out of either making or following a long term and consistent plan that largely will mellow out the short term scariness.

Remember the statement that it is not timing the market but time in the market.. which surely is not so much of an DCA strategy but a lump sum investment strategy that just suggests that you should be thinking long term.  

I have already said several times that it is my belief and practice that even any additional investment into BTC, such as continuing to DCA should be considered in terms of HODLing any new investment for at least 4 years (at least that should be the mindset when buying).  Of course, each of us should have quite a bit of discretion over our own investments, so there could well be circumstances, including high BTC uppity performance that might cause us to take some or all of our investment out of BTC or even majorly adjust and tweak our BTC strategies.. We have those kinds of discretions, even with investments that we initially considered to be long term investments, but we change our minds along the way.. at any time that we want.. even if we had initially considered the investment as a long term investment.. So, surely there are ways to have very firm stances and very firm strategies, but still NOT be locked in and to retain discretion to do whatever the fuck you want, even if you may well recognize the advantages of just staying with a locked in strategy (that is not really completely locked in. because of free will ....  that hopefully does not devolve into weak hands.. merely because you can do it does not mean that it is a good idea to do it. but whatever peeps going to vary on these matters too.   ).

From your link/example, it assumes that, an investor is very liquid and has $250 every week to buy Bitcoin in whatever price range.

Of course it does.  That number presumes around $13k per year to invest and then to divide that into 52 weeks gives you $250 per week.  Of course, you can plug in other dollar amounts, time intervals of buying or the time period in which you bought.

I plugged in an amount to estimate, perhaps how much you had invested over the years, but sure I don't really know your budget, so if it ends up that you can only do $25 per week, which would be $100 per month and $13k per year, then so be it, the percentage of return over the past 5 years ends up being the same which is 13.5x.

Of course, you could end up having various ups and downs through the periods, but I tried to pick some kind of number in which you could perhaps attempt to remain consistent.

Furthermore, if you were to pick a much smaller number because you were worried about your cashflow, then you could inject more at various points if you were to achieve higher cashflow levels.

It also assumes that the stress of investing won’t affect him.

No it does not.

My point about stress and volatility has continued to be that you gotta fucking figure out your situation, and then invest an amount and in a way that you don't give no shits in the short term if the BTC price goes up down or whatever so long as it goes up in the long term.  Yeah, of course, emotions (and stress) is never going to completely get removed from the system, but part of the point of having a three pronged approach is to attempt to lessen the amount of stress, especially if you structure the matter in such a way that you are not gambling.. except for that you have a presumption that in the long term that the BTC price is going to go up but if you invest a small enough amount then you won't give too many shits.. which I also suggest 1% to 10% of your investments should be in bitcoin.. zero in shitcoins and then of course you can have other investments, and sure the lower the amount of money you have then you might not have any other investments, and there is nothing wrong with that either because you have to start somewhere and so if you were to start with bitcoin and have no other investments, then you might have to tweak your strategy a bit to account for that, too.

But wouldn’t the “liquid investor” from your example beat 13.5x if he simply bought Bitcoin with the whole $65,250 5 years ago?

Of course, lump sum investing is a method that can be employed too, but I am NOT assuming that any normie has $65,250 to invest, but he might have a $4k per month cashflow, and he can pull out $1k for investing.  Most normies are way the fuck more able to do DCA than they are lump sum investing, but if that same normie had a plan to invest $1k per month, but once a year, he would also receive a $6k extra then maybe he would plug 1/3 into a lump sum investment, 1/3 into DCA and 1/3 into buying on dips.  Same is true with the DCA approach.. it is only one of the three, but I emphasize DCA so much is because it is the most practical and easiest one to get started for a lot of normies, and of course once getting started for a while, then normies can learn and supplement their DCA approach with other approaches.

Ok.  I know that you are pretty much conceding that you have not been able to even match 13.5x over the years that you have been in bitcoin, but you still want to fight the DCA system that I am suggesting as a starting point.

I am also repeating over and over that it is not the only approach, so you have the other two, but there are other principles that are incorporated in there too my making sure that you figure out your situation and get your shit together so that you are not investing more than you can afford to lose... and yeah it takes quite a bit to get all that shit together and not to relapse into gambling practices or whining about the various could haves and should haves and that kind of bullshit.

I am suggesting to do the best you can without overdoing it and let time pass 4-10 years or more for your investment to work itself and learn along the way too so that your system can get tweaked along the way too so that you are not trying to time the market or getting stressed blah blah blah.

Has there been any analysis on which day of the month (or day of the week) tends to be best to buy when implementing a DCA strategy (e.g. perhaps prices tend to drop at end of month)?

There might be some information out there that argues various days of the week or days of the month, yet I am not too much into diddle-daddlying around with trying to identify patterns like that  because they tend to change and they might be true for a while and then they become untrue.

My personal method with DCA had been to perform my purchases manually, yet I was trying to be a bit more interactive and also attempting to time dips with my DCA to some degree.

So for example, if I had a 6 month budget for DCA'ing, then I would divide that budget into 26 and then I would arrive at my weekly amount and then give myself the whole week to buy at various points.. but sure, I could just buy one time or forget it, or I might see how the week is playing out and buy half and then wait for the rest of the week to see if I could buy on a dip with the other half and various kinds of playing around within the week.

Regarding services that allow you to set up automated days and/or times for DCA'ing.. Some of them will execute at the time that you say, and others will batch such DCA'ing at a certain time of the day.  I have not been using such services, but I do understand that there are likely a certain number of newbies who would rather just set it and forget it.. and maybe come back to it a few times a year but not really be watching it every week (or even every month).  I would think that any one of those services are going to allow you to cancel and reset it up at any time that you want.. so you could pick one day and time and then if that does not seem to be working so well from your subsequent assessment of the situation, try another day and time... or just move over to manually doing it and maybe giving yourself a preferred day of the week (month), and surely, the more that you do it, then the more that you might identify a pattern.. and sure some patterns might be more persistent (or ever present) than other patterns.

[Wind_FURY]

I will never buy on a seller’s market when everything is overpriced.

Yeah, but how are you going to know?   That's part of the problem.

It was very clear for me. Wasn’t it very clear for you? When you debated last month that everyone should be buying “at any price” and apply a DCA strategy?

I am not debating.  I said what I said, and I have not changed.  Get the fuck started sooner rather than later, get your shit together and start buying.  Yes, DCA is the best starting strategy.


What has been your possible average or meaningful budget for buying BTC for the past 5 years (when you registered on the forum), Wind_FURY?

Let's just say... $1,000 per month

Have you beaten the DCA performance for the past 5 years?

Total invested would have been $65,250 and you would have gotten about 13.5x return.  Pretty damned good no?  You are more greedy than that?  Gold would have gotten you 34.24% over that same time and equities would have gotten you 42.09% over that same period.  

If you could have gotten a better return than 13.5x on bitcoin or any other investment strategy, let me know.. There is no reason to poo poo bitcoin's historical performance because even if you ONLY end up getting a faction of that 13.5x in the next 5-10 years, bitcoin is still likely going to be a good investment and DCA investing is a solid approach to investing in it in the coming 5 to 10 years.

On paper it’s easy, but capital is limited, we should use it efficiently, plus stress should be avoided.

I will agree with you that 1) showing historical results in terms of following a set system (whether DCA or otherwise) is not necessarily going to reflect either what people actually ended up doing or 2) that they would necessarily be actually cashing out at this particular time (so it is "on paper" because they did not cash out) and 3) that future results might not be in the same proportions or even perhaps in the same direction.  Let's take each of these arguable points.. 1 by 1.

1)  I will agree with the idea that many people might either proclaim that they are following a system or aspire to follow a system, but the reality of the world is that they either do not follow it or they do not really understand how to put the theory into practice in a way that would be meaningful in their carrying it out.  I provided you with an idea of $1k per month, and sure that might sound doable, but frequently cashflows get mixed up and it may well be more realistic to aim for lower basic amounts and then just add to it or even subtract from it, so there might be some flexibility in the amount or even the timelines of when it is invested, but if we look back at the history after 5 years had passed, we could see some patterns and even take some averages that might end up averaging at $1k per month or some other amount, but the more consistent that the amounts, then the more that they would end up matching with the DCA link that I had provided... and of course, you can tweak the amounts in the DCA link, too.. It would be nice if such DCA link allowed more flexibility in setting dates... but it still should be able to give an overall ballpark idea and surely when you are measuring averages and ballparks from a website like the DCA one, that would not be even as close to being able to plug your own actual facts into a spreadsheet and to figure out exactly your own performance at various points in time (sure some spreadsheet skills can be helpful for showing actual performance at various points in time).

2)   I am not sure how much it would be necessary to elaborate specifically on this point, but with any longer term investment, it is going to tend to be "on paper" for a whole hell of a lot of time until you cash out, and sometimes estimating what should have or could have happened does not really match too well with what actually happened, and each person has differing skills, abilities, time and resources to be able to dedicate towards both analyzing what is happening or what happened and to confirm if anything can be learned from such analysis in order to change (hopefully improve) plans and practices.

3)  Many of us are familiar with the expression that past results do not guarantee future results.. but we still should be able to recognize that bitcoin remains a damned good investment, the fundamentals have not gotten worse, and adoption remains quite low.  Also, even if there might had been some institutional front running, this latest correction does seem to have provided some opportunities for regular joe blows to get their shit together and start investing in BTC because perhaps even some of the institutions have been scared off a bit.. (whether that institutional scaring off is going to last very long, might be another story).... In any event, I continue to argue that DCA is a great component of any longer term investment strategy as long as the fundamentals remain strong.. and that history can give some ideas, but not necessarily say what is going to happen exactly.. which is always the case.. even if you go back historically, you did not know how DCA-ing was all going to play out, but you followed such practice because it has been proven to be a decently good practice, and in some (perhaps many) cases it can end up paying off quite handsomely.


Another point, Wind_FURY is that you completely avoided answering my question in regards to the performance of your BTC investing strategy since your registration in the forum 5 years ago.  I am suspecting that your BTC returns are not even fucking close to 13.5x - which is in the ballpark of what you would have gotten from a fairly consistent, persistent and regular DCAing into BTC, and this method has been known and available and quite common for more than 30 years.. and surely it has been known to be a very popular method of investing into fundamentally sound investments (bitcoin or others.. not talking about shitcoins, here) because DCA is a solid approach.  

As I already mentioned, I started using the DCA method more or less when I started investing more than 30 years ago.. fuck close to 40 years ago... sorry to say.  I remember buying stupid-ass things like Government bonds on a regular basis.. and sure they stacked up for sure.... but it was a kind of DCA method, and the DCA method had been solid as fuck and continued to be a great method in bitcoin since I started in bitcoin in 2013, and the results show with the 42x in 7 years example that I gave you, and that is NOT just "on paper" because I could have and can cash that shit out any time that I want.  

Sure in September 2020, my cashing out of BTC at that point, would have only resulted in around 14.5x returns, but then if I had been able to cash out towards the top of the BTC price market at around $64,895 (which surely is not an easy thing to accomplish.. so just stay somewhat hypothetical with that thought), my returns would have been around 92x.. and that is not just on paper when that money is relatively liquid and there is a goddamned choice in terms of continuing to let it ride or to cash out some part or even to cash out all of it.  

So fuck off with implications of "paper profits" when it comes to making claims about something as increasingly liquid as bitcoin... there are no reasons to be stressing ideas of being trapped in a BTC investment at least in terms of even long term strategies (even though getting trapped - even in BTC - is possible for any investment if in a bad geographical area with fewer liquidation options or trying to time plays with a large amount of assets that might become harder to move all at once).

Imagine buying Bitcoin priced at $60,000 during the euphoria, when you could have waited and buy the dip during the fear. But that’s a good link, I’ll show it to some people later.

Yeah, you can "imagine" short term bullshit all that you want, and you seem to be scaring yourself out of either making or following a long term and consistent plan that largely will mellow out the short term scariness.

Remember the statement that it is not timing the market but time in the market.. which surely is not so much of an DCA strategy but a lump sum investment strategy that just suggests that you should be thinking long term.  

I have already said several times that it is my belief and practice that even any additional investment into BTC, such as continuing to DCA should be considered in terms of HODLing any new investment for at least 4 years (at least that should be the mindset when buying).  Of course, each of us should have quite a bit of discretion over our own investments, so there could well be circumstances, including high BTC uppity performance that might cause us to take some or all of our investment out of BTC or even majorly adjust and tweak our BTC strategies.. We have those kinds of discretions, even with investments that we initially considered to be long term investments, but we change our minds along the way.. at any time that we want.. even if we had initially considered the investment as a long term investment.. So, surely there are ways to have very firm stances and very firm strategies, but still NOT be locked in and to retain discretion to do whatever the fuck you want, even if you may well recognize the advantages of just staying with a locked in strategy (that is not really completely locked in. because of free will ....  that hopefully does not devolve into weak hands.. merely because you can do it does not mean that it is a good idea to do it. but whatever peeps going to vary on these matters too.   ).

From your link/example, it assumes that, an investor is very liquid and has $250 every week to buy Bitcoin in whatever price range.

Of course it does.  That number presumes around $13k per year to invest and then to divide that into 52 weeks gives you $250 per week.  Of course, you can plug in other dollar amounts, time intervals of buying or the time period in which you bought.

I plugged in an amount to estimate, perhaps how much you had invested over the years, but sure I don't really know your budget, so if it ends up that you can only do $25 per week, which would be $100 per month and $13k per year, then so be it, the percentage of return over the past 5 years ends up being the same which is 13.5x.

Of course, you could end up having various ups and downs through the periods, but I tried to pick some kind of number in which you could perhaps attempt to remain consistent.

Furthermore, if you were to pick a much smaller number because you were worried about your cashflow, then you could inject more at various points if you were to achieve higher cashflow levels.

It also assumes that the stress of investing won’t affect him.

No it does not.

My point about stress and volatility has continued to be that you gotta fucking figure out your situation, and then invest an amount and in a way that you don't give no shits in the short term if the BTC price goes up down or whatever so long as it goes up in the long term.  Yeah, of course, emotions (and stress) is never going to completely get removed from the system, but part of the point of having a three pronged approach is to attempt to lessen the amount of stress, especially if you structure the matter in such a way that you are not gambling.. except for that you have a presumption that in the long term that the BTC price is going to go up but if you invest a small enough amount then you won't give too many shits.. which I also suggest 1% to 10% of your investments should be in bitcoin.. zero in shitcoins and then of course you can have other investments, and sure the lower the amount of money you have then you might not have any other investments, and there is nothing wrong with that either because you have to start somewhere and so if you were to start with bitcoin and have no other investments, then you might have to tweak your strategy a bit to account for that, too.

But wouldn’t the “liquid investor” from your example beat 13.5x if he simply bought Bitcoin with the whole $65,250 5 years ago?

Of course, lump sum investing is a method that can be employed too, but I am NOT assuming that any normie has $65,250 to invest, but he might have a $4k per month cashflow, and he can pull out $1k for investing.  Most normies are way the fuck more able to do DCA than they are lump sum investing, but if that same normie had a plan to invest $1k per month, but once a year, he would also receive a $6k extra then maybe he would plug 1/3 into a lump sum investment, 1/3 into DCA and 1/3 into buying on dips.  Same is true with the DCA approach.. it is only one of the three, but I emphasize DCA so much is because it is the most practical and easiest one to get started for a lot of normies, and of course once getting started for a while, then normies can learn and supplement their DCA approach with other approaches.

Then, wouldn’t lump sum investing during the dip in times of fear + DCA the dips + saving cash during euphoria to buy more Bitcoin during times of fear, be a more efficient strategy for both capital and sanity?

Ok.  I know that you are pretty much conceding that you have not been able to even match 13.5x over the years that you have been in bitcoin, but you still want to fight the DCA system that I am suggesting as a starting point.

You started the DCA system 5 years, I started Buying the dip, and HODL 3 years ago. I don’t beat 13.5x that started 5 years ago, but I beat the same system if it started the same time 3 years ago. My mistake was increasing my average price by buying more between $10,000 - $15,000.

I am also repeating over and over that it is not the only approach, so you have the other two, but there are other principles that are incorporated in there too my making sure that you figure out your situation and get your shit together so that you are not investing more than you can afford to lose... and yeah it takes quite a bit to get all that shit together and not to relapse into gambling practices or whining about the various could haves and should haves and that kind of bullshit.

I am suggesting to do the best you can without overdoing it and let time pass 4-10 years or more for your investment to work itself and learn along the way too so that your system can get tweaked along the way too so that you are not trying to time the market or getting stressed blah blah blah.

I like your DCA approach because it’s not stressful, but I can’t buy blindly if I invest based on my personality, I save during times of euphoria to invest later if there’s a discount, and Bitcoin currently is on a discount.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Many are already seeing the best of the dip to buy, they know that it has great potential, that at any moment the price recovers and for many it produces profits, of course I extracted this from an interesting article:

TA: Bitcoin Grinds Higher, Here’s Why Dips Turned Attractive

Bitcoin price started a steady increase above the $36,000 resistance against the US Dollar. BTC even broke $37,000 and it is now showing positive signs.

Bitcoin gained bullish momentum above the $35,000 and $36,000 resistance levels.
The price is currently trading well above $36,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $36,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could correct lower, but the bulls are likely to remain active near $36,000.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/btc/bitcoin-btc-grinds-higher-38k/


This article made me remember this thread a lot, besides that the only thing missing is for them to say to buy in the fall and Hodl, however they give possible scenarios that may occur, if the scenario that occurs is bullish we will be able to see again the imminent recovery of BTC and maybe if everything goes well we will have another new ATH.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Then, wouldn’t lump sum investing during the dip in times of fear + DCA the dips + saving cash during euphoria to buy more Bitcoin during times of fear, be a more efficient strategy for both capital and sanity?

Personally, I have some difficulties conceptualizing that attempting to throttle up and throttle down your strategies based on where you believe the BTC price is going to go is going to yield you better results than a strategy that attempts to mostly minimize those attempts at timing (aka outsmarting the market).

On the other hand, there are likely ways that you are going to be able to tweak on the edges as long as you largely have a system that you attempt to follow, and even though I am going to go along with you and attempt to analyze timing effects within each of the categories, when any guy is looking at what he is doing, he needs to look at the whole thing as a package, so he is likely going to be able to tweak within each of the categories in such a way that attempts to somewhat account for some of his anticipations of BTC price direction - while at the same time built in doubts (which many of us should always have) should result in his tempering the taking of BIG risks in one direction or another (in other words, if he has created smart systems that are already largely attempting to tailor to his own circumstances including account for various anxieties, then his temptations to gamble should also be largely tempered.. perhaps not completely tempered because many of us have some levels of wanting to gamble.. at least a little bit based on information that we believe that we know).

Let's attempt to take a look at how timing (or feelings) can play a part in each of the categories.  Let's continue to use the example of $250 per week with an additional surprise $6k coming available once per year (since you seem to like this amount so much - in spite of your battling with it.. . hahahahaha).

Lump sum investing - this category is already kind of already inclined to take out some timing aspects because it is suggesting that as soon as you get the money, you invest it.  Sure you can take the $6k per year or whatever extra money that you might get from time to time and divide it into parts so that you can use in other categories, but you can also just put it in straight away.  The reason that I tend to just divide that shit up into three as a starting point is that I just want to have some advantage of each of the categories, rather than putting all my eggs in one basket.  Of course, if you do not have shit into bitcoin, and maybe you have set your BTC accumulation target at somewhere between 1% and 10% but you have not even come close to reaching your accumulation target yet, then you might be more aggressive on the lump sum aspect.

By the way, in about 2016 or so, I grew away from the idea that there is a need to be continuing to reallocate your gains, so for example, if you set some initial allocation amount of somewhere between 1% and 10% (let's just say 5% to be in the middle of that), but the BTC price goes shooting up 2x, 5x or 6.5x for example, then let's just say that when the BTC price was at $10k, you had largely reached your 5% accumulation goal, but as the BTC price went up and your other assets did not change too much in value, your BTC began to take up way larger percentages of your overall portfolio and at $20k, it was around 10% and around $50k it was around 25% and around 32.5%... And, so when the BTC price comes crashing back down to $30k-ish, your allocation in BTC becomes 15% - which is still way over your initial authorization of 5% into BTC.  

I used to go along with some of those traditional investment ideas in terms of considering various times to reallocate, but since about 2016 when that first started to become a potential issue for me, I personally decided to say "fuck reallocating," and instead let the winner ride, and I believe that there are a few aspects to the formula that likely needs to be present in order to decide not to reallocate, and one is already having other investments that are decently solid so that you do not necessarily need to take profits from BTC to put in those other assets.  Another thing is both having confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the asset and even not being deluded into believing some piece of crap investment (such as a shitcoin) has strong fundamentals when it does not.. Bitcoin does seem  to fit the category of being a strong fundamental investment, yet of course, opinions are not necessarily going to agree about that, so in essence what I am saying that in order to stick with your reluctancies to reallocate, you have to both have developed ideas of the fundamentals being strong and in order for that approach to be long term profitable, you ultimately need to end up being correct, which the future may end up proving you right or wrong in terms of what you thought would happen and what ends up happening.

DCA  - of course, DCA completely attempts to just take an amount of money that is comfortable and just to blindly put the money into BTC no matter what the price - whether that be $250 per week or $20per week, $1,000 per week or some other amount or increment.  There should be little to no timing attempts with this, and surely, if you don't want to dedicate the whole $250 that you get towards bitcoin purchases for that week, you can assign some of it for buying on dips.. nothing wrong with that, even though personally I believe that while you are attempting to reach or even maintain your allocation target, you should be dedicating a certain amount to ongoing, continuing, persistent and regular DCA-ing, even if it is a relatively small amount. Once you reach or even exceed your allocation target, you can become much more lax about whether you continue to DCA at all or maybe considerably reducing the amounts or intervals of DCA in order to account for your having had reached or exceeded your target (which also could be considered as being reached or exceeded based on BTC price accumulation).  

Maybe in 2016 when the BTC price was around $600 each, you considered your overall income budget and considered that maybe over the years you might be able to get about 21 BTC, which would be around $12,600 invested, and if the BTC price went up to a few thousand dollars (for example $5k), you would end up having around $105k in value that you could continue to build.  

However, through the years, you saw the BTC prices going up and down and you lost your focus and you fucked up a whole lot because you were trying to time ups and down, and you never reached your 21BTC target.  Even after the BTC price went up to $20k and then came back down to $10k, spent a lot of time in the $7ks and even $3ks, you never did reach your 21BTC target,  but somewhere along the line, you did get up to 15BTC, and you started to consider that 15BTC might be enough.  Even in September 2020, BTC prices were around $10k, and you had largely reached and exceeded your short term $100k plus target because your BTC were worth $150k.  Furthermore, thereafter you saw your 15BTC go up to almost $1million (at $64,895) and you also saw the 15BTC go back down to below $500k (at $30k)you had.  

So, I am not going to concede, Wind_FURY, that you had not been fucking around the whole god-damned time trying to time the market by failing and refusing to buy, so sure you did not reach your 21 BTC goal, and maybe even you have not been able to reach or maintain a 15 BTC goal, but in the end, maybe you are coming to realize that maybe 15 BTC might be enough because you might not need as many BTC as you had originally thought, but you keep fucking around by trying to time the market, failing and refusing to continue to buy on a regular basis... So even though I do not know (or care) about your exact numbers, AmiNOTrite about the negative repercussions you have continued to feel with your lame-ass attempts to try to time the market when you should have some category (and amount of money) in which you should just be regularly buying BTC in order to reach some kind of somewhat tangible goal?  

Buying on dips - maybe this is your favorite of the categories, and I have no problem with this category getting a certain amount of emphasis.. but there surely can be a trade-off if too much emphasis is placed into this category which causes peeps to be inadequately prepared for UP.  Each of us should be figuring out what balance that we need to make in order to be prepared for both price directions, and so damned frequently in the bitcoin space I see folks who way the fuck inadequately prepare for up.... so as I already mentioned, you could have made a bit over a $10k investment in BTC in 2016.. and then just sat on such investment and would have largely been adequately prepared for UP. .. so then just don't be playing around with that part of the investment and then maybe continued to follow various other strategies.

Of course, if you were not around BTC in 2016 or if you failed/refused to adequately prepare for UP, then you gotta start from where you are at, which means that if you are a nocoiner relative of Wind_FURY.. don't be listening to his ongoing dumbass suggestion to wait or to ONLY employ buying on dips, you gotta be doing those other parts too.

Furthermore, it does not matter if you could have performed better blah blah blah if you end up NOT getting the timing correct because you are trying to get more BTC for lower prices and the BTC prices do not end up going lower.

Anyhow buying on dips remains ONLY one of the components, and I personally do believe that it should be incorporated right from the start of investing into BTC because it helps psychology and finances when the price goes low or even lower than expected, so having some money prepared for both low and even perhaps lower than expected could feel good, even though the overall value of the holdings may have gone down 10x or more than any amount of money that you had prepared for buying on the dip.   Accordingly, let's take the person who had accumulated 15BTC, and when the BTC price drops from $64,895 to $30k, then that person had gone from having a dollar BTC value of $975k down to $450k, and so maybe he bought at various times in the dip, including buying at $5k at $52k, and then buying another $3k at $42k, so then when the BTC price reaches $30k, he may have ONLY about $3k - $5k left in his funds, and in some sense he has already run out of money so he is feeling like he cannot buy anymore at the $30k prices because if the BTC price were to go to $25k or even less to $20k, then he would not have any money for those dips, and he is feeling in a bit of a dilemma.  

Of course, I can feel the dilemma, and instead of trying to time exactly how far the dip is going to go, my buying on dip strategy had already bought all the way down from $57k to $30k, and I still have buy orders going down to around $15k.  So personally, I am suggesting not to be timing this or trying to figure out shit.. If you feel that you bought too much too high, then hopefully you learn from your mistakes, and I am suggesting to continue to set your buy orders at various increments in order that you continue to buy on the way down, you do not stop buying and you do not run out of money.  So even if you ONLY have $3k left, and you are ONLY able to buy small amounts, I would be suggesting to figure out your buy intervals and set your buy orders all the way down to where you believe that the BTC price could go and maybe even going beyond where you believe that it could go.  You gotta find a balance in this that is comfortable for you in terms of your believing that you did your best under the circumstances including your likely considerations that you feel that you already fucked up by buying too much too high.  

By the way, I am not even conceding that the bottom of $30,066 is not already in, but I am just playing along with the idea that there are a lot of peeps (probably including Wind_FURY) who are feeling a decent amount of anxiety because they already fucked up by running out of money, buying too much too high, and now are thinking about the what ifs that might be quite a bit of of wack of what is more likely to happen in terms of this particular current shake out that we are in the midst of.

So for example, if you ONLY have $3k left and your cashflow projections anticipates that you will likely be getting another $250 per week for the next few months, and if you also believe that there are decent chances that BTC prices could go down to $25k and in extreme cases could go down to $20k, and you are thinking that the odds are really extreme.. such as less than 2% that the BTC price could go below $20k, the you might set your buy on dip orders down to $20k with the $3k that you have and then just plug in the extra $250 per week into that buying on dip plan at various points as that money comes in.  

So even with the $3k, you might consider that buying $300 for every $1,000 price drop would be prudent, and at the same time you are depressed because your 15 BTC collection goes down in value about $15k every time that the BTC price drops $1k, but you are ONLY buying $300 with each of those drops, so you start to believe that you might be doing something wrong.. blah blah blah.. and I just say stop getting all caught up in bullshit about the loss of value of your BTC and just carry out your buying on dip plans as well as supplementing with the other two BTC accumulation strategies, and in the long run of 4 years or more, you are likely going to be doing quite well with any new BTC purchases that you are making.. whether buying on dips, DCA'ing or lump summing, and surely considering and attempting to tailor those three strategies should be very helpful in terms of reducing a lot of anxiety during BTC price dippening periods whether the BTC price is going to be continuing to dip for some uncertain amount of time into the future or whether the bottom is already in.. I surely am not going to presume to know, even though I do suggest that anyone who buys BTC at any price should be buying with an anticipation of holding such new purchases for at least 4 years from the time of the new purchase.

Ok.  I know that you are pretty much conceding that you have not been able to even match 13.5x over the years that you have been in bitcoin, but you still want to fight the DCA system that I am suggesting as a starting point.

You started the DCA system 5 years, I started Buying the dip, and HODL 3 years ago.

No.  I started more than 7.5 years ago, you fuck.  Why do you keep perverting the various facts or what I have been attempting to communicate with my various examples or hypotheticals or speculations or whatever?

I used the 5 years in order to go by your forum registration date in terms of your getting involved in bitcoin, so I am not competing with you, you fuck.  Nonetheless, I did proclaim that my system of largely following DCA and other related strategies has largely ended up paralleling the performance of the DCA system of 42x.

So, I am not even proclaiming that DCA either needs to outperform various kinds of other hybrid systems because there surely can be other goals that are attempting to be achieved by employing a variety of systems.  Many times I have suggested that I hardly give any shits about my actual BTC price performance because my preference was to be able to achieve something that was very similar to my traditional asset returns which was averaging around 5.5% per year, so it would be nice to match that level of performance but not necessary because when I started investing in BTC I was accounting for BTC being a potentially risky as fuck asset, and along the way I have continued to have those kinds of considerations about the risky as fuck nature of BTC, so some of the strategies that I personally created were to attempt to protect my own investment from some of the downside risk and some of the seemingly built in and inevitable volatility.

With all of those considerations, my BTC performance has still largely matched the DCA'ing average that is about 42x, and I was attempting to get you to discuss your supposed attempts at doing better than DCA and to compare whatever the fuck you are doing to what you would have gotten with a mere blindly following DCA strategy.. that is not trying to time shit.

Of course, the DCA strategy charts can be clicked on to show that the longer that you have been employing the DCA strategy the greater your returns and even likely if you average them out on a per basis, the longer that you have been in, then the better per year performance that you are likely to get.  Of course, when you are looking at a shorter period of time, then sometimes you are going to NOT have either very good performance or there may be some getting caught in various kinds of correction periods that cause the shorter term periods to not show too well on the DCA chart... so now you want to say that you just started 3 years ago, and your first two years do not count?  Fuck that bullshit.  Maybe your are just too much of a newbie because I was trying to use a longer (and especially longer than 4 year period) to show that DCA really is a solid practice?  

Surely 3 years is more problematic because of BTC's four year cycle that is not even guaranteed.. so you fuck, you want to suggest that you have only been investing your timing the market strategy for 3 years.. what a fucking twat.  Part of the considerable power of DCA is to both let the damned thing run for a long time and to continue to do it, and there comes a kind of compounding effect that comes from the time in the market rather than timing the market, so the shorter the period that you pick (you fuck) the smaller the ability to show any kind of performance difference from any random strategy

O.k.. whatever, I will play ball.. a wee bit.  We already saw that 5 years had shown 13.5x..  Of course, we are in a good cycle now, so 3 years and 4 years are still going to show decent results. but I still am suggesting that the longer that you merely do the DCA then it is likely going to perform well, and if you are making some kinds of claims to having superior performance, as if the ONLY thing that matters is maniacal focusing on upside performance (which that also is not correct, because many times long term investors want both upside potential, but they also want some kinds of feelings of wellbeing in regards to downside risk, too).

By the way.. just for shits and giggles in terms of your shifting goal posts methods of attempting to interact here.

4 years DCA'ing shows 438% returns  (so easier to beat that, right?)

3 years of DCA'ing shows 341% returns   (so easier to beat that, right?)

So have you beat the 3 years performance with your attempts at short-term selectivisms? Even with your wanting to ONLY selectively start the employment of your supposedly enlightened approach at 3 years, rather than you forum registration date, then surely you have been able to get better relative performance with that no?

I don’t beat 13.5x that started 5 years ago, but I beat the same system if it started the same time 3 years ago. My mistake was increasing my average price by buying more between $10,000 - $15,000.

Oh gawd...  

Maybe it's o.k. to play along with you here.  So O.k.  You are really suggesting that you started investing in BTC 3 years ago rather than 5 years ago?  You do not want your first 3 years to count, right?

Think about my situation?  I started at the end of 2013, which was the top of that price run.  My starting purchase was at $1,200, and the price did not get back above $1,200 for more than 3 years in early 2017 and the price did not even stay above $1,200 until March/April.  I don't selectively choose my BTC price performance based on that. I made a lot of mistakes along the way, including getting a lot of BTC taken from me through a sims port hack, and I even include the price of those BTC in my overall calculation of BTC price, so my average cost per BTC went from below $500-ish to around $750-ish from that hackening situation.  But I do not try to spin that as NOT counting, and still over the 7.5 years that I am in my overall BTC price performance is still inline with the DCA'ing projections. and I believe that I am engaging in strategies to insure my BTC portfolio from downside price performance risks and BTC price volatility, which should take away from my BTC upside price performance, but my BTC portfolio is still largely matching the DCA price expectations that are in the chart in terms of the 42x .mine is like 48x... but whatever, I have been in longer than 7 years and more like 7.5 years... even though my first 1/2 year or so was building the initial stash that largely did not come close my accumulation target until getting close to being a year into BTC, but I had not really realized and/or embraced my BTC accumulation target until I was around 9 months into BTC... so then I started considering 10% was my BTC accumulation target in respect to BTC as compared to my other investments.

I am also repeating over and over that it is not the only approach, so you have the other two, but there are other principles that are incorporated in there too my making sure that you figure out your situation and get your shit together so that you are not investing more than you can afford to lose... and yeah it takes quite a bit to get all that shit together and not to relapse into gambling practices or whining about the various could haves and should haves and that kind of bullshit.

I am suggesting to do the best you can without overdoing it and let time pass 4-10 years or more for your investment to work itself and learn along the way too so that your system can get tweaked along the way too so that you are not trying to time the market or getting stressed blah blah blah.

I like your DCA approach because it’s not stressful, but I can’t buy blindly if I invest based on my personality,

Well reduce your amounts then.  Going back to the $250 per week BTC budget, if you have personality inclinations that you want to fuck around with 1/2 or 3/4 of that amount, then don't put all of it into DCA. I am not even saying to follow any approach that you do not agree with, but I am saying that it is really difficult for anyone to beat DCA overall, and like you suggested, it is not just about finances, but it is about psychology too (even though with the more and more passage of time the finances does seem to work itself out with DCA, too.. especially if the asset ends up going UPpity in the long run, and generally BTC does tend to do that, at least so far).

I save during times of euphoria to invest later if there’s a discount, and Bitcoin currently is on a discount.

Nothing wrong with that.


By the way, after responding to each of your above points, I acknowledge that there are some parts of my response in which I am getting a bit frustrated with some of what you are saying, and part of my frustration probably has to do with when I get some senses that the goalposts or the hypothetical is changed or there seems to be selective employments of facts that seem to avoid some of the earlier points that were being made.  

Of course, if you want to proclaim that you have ONLY been investing in BTC for 3 years (or employing your strategy/method for 3 years rather than 5 years), then I suppose that could be fair, too.. especially if it is actually what you did in terms of not really getting started in investing in BTC. but still seems a bit problematic, because of course, with any investment there are going to be more and more benefits that come with more and more time in the market..

Accordingly, I can concede that newbie investors can take a year or two just to build their investment portfolio (with BTC or any other investment) to some kind of somewhat meaningful amount that it makes sense to even think about it or moving it or whatever.. so sometimes the first few years might be injecting so small amounts that it really does not seem to add up to much if anything.

I look back at my own earlier days in investing, and I see that my investment amounts were relatively piddly.. so it can take a lot of time to both build the investment amounts and also for the various investments returns to start to show and to compound upon themselves... to also show greater and greater amounts that really show 15 to 20 years down the road rather than in earlier days of building the investment portfolio.. and even from my own experiences the compounding really seems to show more and more further down the road.. - kind of the expression of it takes money to make money.. but surely a doubling of $100k is going to seem way greater than a doubling of $1k.. even though it is the same percentage.

[yohananaomi]

That's right, bro, only those who dare to take risks will become successful in crypto. we must have the courage to take the right decision after reading a variety of information and analyzing a variety of characteristics so that it becomes a benchmark in a decision to buy or sell tokens.

Experience certainly plays a very important role in determining whether we should take action. which is clear by analyzing and seeing the developments that have occurred. then action can be taken, you are right, even though it has to be at risk, but we clearly know and analyze it well, and believe that the time we have cannot be missed and in the end we don't get anything. because sometimes opportunities pass very quickly and if we are not ready, then the opportunity will be lost. the decision to buy or sell is that we already believe in what we do.

[lunnatic]

That's right, bro, only those who dare to take risks will become successful in crypto. we must have the courage to take the right decision after reading a variety of information and analyzing a variety of characteristics so that it becomes a benchmark in a decision to buy or sell tokens.

Experience certainly plays a very important role in determining whether we should take action. which is clear by analyzing and seeing the developments that have occurred. then action can be taken, you are right, even though it has to be at risk, but we clearly know and analyze it well, and believe that the time we have cannot be missed and in the end we don't get anything. because sometimes opportunities pass very quickly and if we are not ready, then the opportunity will be lost. the decision to buy or sell is that we already believe in what we do.

sometimes human nature that lacks confidence makes thinking confused, even though the price has dropped to -80%, they still don't believe that it is DIP,
and are still waiting for another dump, even though it is DIP, like some time ago, the price of BNB, ETH , and XRP really dropped dramatically and if you observe,
the prices of these three coins have increased by more than 20%, just imagine if you are confident, of course you have made a profit

[JayJuanGee]

That's right, bro, only those who dare to take risks will become successful in crypto. we must have the courage to take the right decision after reading a variety of information and analyzing a variety of characteristics so that it becomes a benchmark in a decision to buy or sell tokens.

Experience certainly plays a very important role in determining whether we should take action. which is clear by analyzing and seeing the developments that have occurred. then action can be taken, you are right, even though it has to be at risk, but we clearly know and analyze it well, and believe that the time we have cannot be missed and in the end we don't get anything. because sometimes opportunities pass very quickly and if we are not ready, then the opportunity will be lost. the decision to buy or sell is that we already believe in what we do.

sometimes human nature that lacks confidence makes thinking confused, even though the price has dropped to -80%, they still don't believe that it is DIP,
and are still waiting for another dump, even though it is DIP, like some time ago, the price of BNB, ETH , and XRP really dropped dramatically and if you observe,
the prices of these three coins have increased by more than 20%, just imagine if you are confident, of course you have made a profit

We are not talking about shitcoins here.  This thread is about bitcoin.

Otherwise point taken in terms of buying on dip and having a certain level of confidence are already study in your asset (here bitcoin) in order to have some ideas about how much dip is enough to trigger an order.

My system does not attempt to maximize bottom, I buy all the way down, and as long as I do not run out of money, I will usually have some BTC buys in the neighborhood of what ends up being the bottom.. but just like our current BTC price dip, we cannot know whether $30,066 is the bottom or not. 

Accordingly, it could be good to already have made some buys in the $30ks and that is a 40% to 50% dip from the $64,895 top.. and even if you had ended up buying at various points in the $40ks that would have been a 25% to 40% dip from the top... and of course buying between $50k and $58k would have been less of a dip of between 11% and 25% from the top. 

Of course, any time that there is a dip in the BTC price, if such BTC price keeps dipping, then it would be good to be able to buy some more upon such further dips if they were to occur, but we cannot be sure if there are going to be any more dips... so that is part of the dilemma that any people (who are trying to minimize accumulation costs) feel regarding when to buy and how much.

[Wind_FURY]

No.  I started more than 7.5 years ago, you fuck.  Why do you keep perverting the various facts or what I have been attempting to communicate with my various examples or hypotheticals or speculations or whatever?

I was referring to the link you posted, it started 5 years. I don’t know when you started, nor do I care.

I don’t beat 13.5x that started 5 years ago, but I beat the same system if it started the same time 3 years ago. My mistake was increasing my average price by buying more between $10,000 - $15,000.

Oh gawd...  

Maybe it's o.k. to play along with you here.  So O.k.  You are really suggesting that you started investing in BTC 3 years ago rather than 5 years ago?  You do not want your first 3 years to count, right?

I believe my post history in the Trading subforum would show that I already told everyone that I started by day-trading Bitcoin and altcoins and lost most of my savings.

Think about my situation?  I started at the end of 2013, which was the top of that price run.  My starting purchase was at $1,200, and the price did not get back above $1,200 for more than 3 years in early 2017 and the price did not even stay above $1,200 until March/April.  I don't selectively choose my BTC price performance based on that. I made a lot of mistakes along the way, including getting a lot of BTC taken from me through a sims port hack, and I even include the price of those BTC in my overall calculation of BTC price, so my average cost per BTC went from below $500-ish to around $750-ish from that hackening situation.  But I do not try to spin that as NOT counting, and still over the 7.5 years that I am in my overall BTC price performance is still inline with the DCA'ing projections. and I believe that I am engaging in strategies to insure my BTC portfolio from downside price performance risks and BTC price volatility, which should take away from my BTC upside price performance, but my BTC portfolio is still largely matching the DCA price expectations that are in the chart in terms of the 42x .mine is like 48x... but whatever, I have been in longer than 7 years and more like 7.5 years... even though my first 1/2 year or so was building the initial stash that largely did not come close my accumulation target until getting close to being a year into BTC, but I had not really realized and/or embraced my BTC accumulation target until I was around 9 months into BTC... so then I started considering 10% was my BTC accumulation target in respect to BTC as compared to my other investments.

Good! I’m happy you found success. Although I wouldn’t recommend it. Do you believe the best traders would recommend it?

By the way, after responding to each of your above points, I acknowledge that there are some parts of my response in which I am getting a bit frustrated with some of what you are saying, and part of my frustration probably has to do with when I get some senses that the goalposts or the hypothetical is changed or there seems to be selective employments of facts that seem to avoid some of the earlier points that were being made.  

Moving the goal posts? How? Get the context of the topic, and what the sentiment was when it was created. It’s “Buy the dip, and HODL”, not “Buy blindly, and HODL”. It was during that time when not many people were encouraging to buy, when everyone did not want to buy. It was during that time when everyone believed that Bitcoin will never surge to a new ATH again, because of Roger Ver, Craig Wright’s FUD, and other FUD.

Plus I would never tell anyone to use their money to FOMO buy the top, and “don’t worry about it, just use DCA”, because NO ONE has unlimited capital.

[JayJuanGee]

No.  I started more than 7.5 years ago, you fuck.  Why do you keep perverting the various facts or what I have been attempting to communicate with my various examples or hypotheticals or speculations or whatever?

I was referring to the link you posted, it started 5 years. I don’t know when you started, nor do I care.

Our posts speak for themselves, so I see no real need to go back and to revisit them; however, seems to me that you were convoluting the ideas overall and convoluting the point that I was originally trying to make, which I already explained that I had used 5 years to refer to how much time you could have been investing into BTC based on your forum date.  Of course, there would be some speculation from me contained therein in regards to how much you may have gotten involved in BTC.. so sure, I realize that aspect might have been unfair to presume that you could just come into bitcoin and start investing right away .. both in terms of having capital available to invest and/.or having had gotten your mind around the bullish bitcoin thesis.. so I can give you a bit of a break on that, even though some of your seeming flip flopping did irritate me a bit.

Furthermore, I did get the sense that you were purposefully suggesting that I was bringing up the 5 years because of myself, when I had already clearly stated that I had brought up 5 years based on your forum registration date.. and I had also already described my own timeframe for being in bitcoin as 7.5 years-ish.

Whether you care about me or not might be another matter all together, but sometimes in our post history already, each of us have been using our own experiences in order to attempt to bounce off ideas about what we might believe to be reasonable/feasible.. whether our own experiences might be representative of what others could do or should do might be another question, but still remains a kind of ability to show an experiential point and to maybe contrast that with data, such as the data that I got from the DCABTC website.

I don’t beat 13.5x that started 5 years ago, but I beat the same system if it started the same time 3 years ago. My mistake was increasing my average price by buying more between $10,000 - $15,000.

Oh gawd...  

Maybe it's o.k. to play along with you here.  So O.k.  You are really suggesting that you started investing in BTC 3 years ago rather than 5 years ago?  You do not want your first 3 years to count, right?

I believe my post history in the Trading subforum would show that I already told everyone that I started by day-trading Bitcoin and altcoins and lost most of my savings.

Ok.  fair enough.  There surely can be personal transitory periods or even solid periods that would justify having a different justification regarding starting points, so yeah, I admit that I might have been being a bit too hard on you to be accusing you of wiffle-waffling in regards to your investing into bitcoin starting date.    This is about as close as you get from me to an apology, so there is that, too.. hahahaha

Think about my situation?  I started at the end of 2013, which was the top of that price run.  My starting purchase was at $1,200, and the price did not get back above $1,200 for more than 3 years in early 2017 and the price did not even stay above $1,200 until March/April.  I don't selectively choose my BTC price performance based on that. I made a lot of mistakes along the way, including getting a lot of BTC taken from me through a sims port hack, and I even include the price of those BTC in my overall calculation of BTC price, so my average cost per BTC went from below $500-ish to around $750-ish from that hackening situation.  But I do not try to spin that as NOT counting, and still over the 7.5 years that I am in my overall BTC price performance is still inline with the DCA'ing projections. and I believe that I am engaging in strategies to insure my BTC portfolio from downside price performance risks and BTC price volatility, which should take away from my BTC upside price performance, but my BTC portfolio is still largely matching the DCA price expectations that are in the chart in terms of the 42x .mine is like 48x... but whatever, I have been in longer than 7 years and more like 7.5 years... even though my first 1/2 year or so was building the initial stash that largely did not come close my accumulation target until getting close to being a year into BTC, but I had not really realized and/or embraced my BTC accumulation target until I was around 9 months into BTC... so then I started considering 10% was my BTC accumulation target in respect to BTC as compared to my other investments.

Good! I’m happy you found success. Although I wouldn’t recommend it. Do you believe the best traders would recommend it?

I hardly have any regrets about anything that I did.  Sure, I made some mistakes along the way, but I cannot really find any major faults with my overall strategies.  Sure, we can always second guess amounts invested at various times, but surely, if I am proclaiming that I had a certain budget for bitcoin, and I was investing in accordance with my budget, that still is not really saying anything in regards to my other details including the details of the various individual/personal matters that I was considering to come to my various conclusions regarding how to approach my BTC investment and how much to allocate at what time frames and then just the overall strategy to attempt to be prepared for both UP and DOWN (and sideways) without really having too many clues about where the BTC price was going to go with any kind of precision... And, one aspect of being prepared for UP is to have stake in the game.  

Through 2014, while the BTC price was pretty much going down from $1,163 to ultimately reach a kind of consolidation price range that gravitated around $250, I had already appreciated that when I started buying into BTC that I had 100% of my various investments that were dollar denominated in one way or another.  
My initial intention was to attempt to get some value in assets (bitcoin as a gold substitute) that I speculated to NOT be correlated with the dollar.  Initially, I just authorized myself with a lumpsum amount that I could invest into bitcoin over the next 6 months between late 2013 and May of 2014....  By the time that I had been investing in BTC for most of 2014, it was at that time that I established an overall target BTC allocation amount that I wanted to have as 10% in BTC and 90% remaining in my various other traditional asset investments.

I had never really considered myself as a trader, so I am not sure if I had ever given any kind of flying fuck about what traders might think about the system that I had established for myself - even though starting in about mid-to-late 2015, I had planned and began to carry out some trading strategies that were meant to both take advantage of what seemed to be almost inevitable volatility in BTC prices, but also to attempt to protect myself, somewhat, from some of the more extreme BTC downward price moves, so long as BTC prices were to not ultimately go to zero.  Going to zero was a kind of scenario that I had not really protected myself from except for just investing an amount that I had considered to be acceptable to lose in the even that BTC had actually gone to zero.

In any event my trading techniques in bitcoin are largely coming quite a bit after having had not only reached my BTC accumulation target - but ending up overinvesting in BTC in terms of having had reached something in the ballpark of 13.5% rather than merely limiting to the 10% target that I had already established for myself.

So, you should have gotten from me by now, that I don't consider myself a trader and so I believe that reaching accumulation goals is largely engaging in various BTC accumulation strategies that are attempting to incorporate the three approaches of lump sum buying, dca and buying on dips.  Of course, once BTC accumulation goals are reached then there will be more flexibility in terms of other toold that might be employed.. and so frequently on the forum we are talking with people who have not even come close to reaching their accumulation goals.. so that tends to be why so much attention ends ups getting paid to the various accumulation strategies rather than getting caught up in some other strategies (such as trading) that likely have more to do with maintenance and later down the road practices that should not necessarily be part of the accumulation stage.

Yes the fucktwat traders are likely going to be suggesting differing accumulation tactics than me, but I am sticking to my guns that lump summing, DCA and buying on dips are what need to be employed first.., and don't be fucking around with trading until later.. after establishing a decent stash and surely when to start with trading or how to use trading is going to vary quite a bit from individual to individual.. and this thread is not really about that topic, right?  

By the way, after responding to each of your above points, I acknowledge that there are some parts of my response in which I am getting a bit frustrated with some of what you are saying, and part of my frustration probably has to do with when I get some senses that the goalposts or the hypothetical is changed or there seems to be selective employments of facts that seem to avoid some of the earlier points that were being made.  

Moving the goal posts? How? Get the context of the topic, and what the sentiment was when it was created. It’s “Buy the dip, and HODL”, not “Buy blindly, and HODL”.

Fair enough that there are going to be differing views in regards to BTC accumulation or even maintenance of the stash strategies including even the employment of a strategy such as "buy the dip and HODL."    I personally believe that systems should mostly already be set into place in accordance with a person's situation including whether they are in early accumulation phase or a later accumulation phase or a maintenance phase or somewhere else.  Sure I believe that DCA has to be incorporated into a "buy the dip and HODL" strategy, and surely the aggressiveness of DCA or even including lumpsumming will also depend upon where peeps consider themselves to be, and of course, some changed personal circumstances can change both where they believe themselves to be and/or the strategy that they might employ.  For example, if a person receives a surprise inheritance of $12k that is able to be completely dedicated to BTC buying, then that person's cashflow situation has temporarily changed because of this new money that just came in. Furthermore, if a person gets into a car accident or suddenly has found out about a life-threatening or even terminal condition, the person might move him/herself out of the accumulation phase and into either a maintenance or even a liquidation phase.  Similar kinds of changes can come to institutions - and I am not even saying that there should not already be money set aside for various kinds of sudden changes in conditions such as emergencies and even sudden unexpected cashflows might already have some contingent assigned priorities. that might need to be revisited once the surprise event changes from hypothetical to actual.

It was during that time when not many people were encouraging to buy, when everyone did not want to buy. It was during that time when everyone believed that Bitcoin will never surge to a new ATH again, because of Roger Ver, Craig Wright’s FUD, and other FUD.

Each of us are not going to come to the same conclusions regarding how to read the UPs and DOWNs of the market, whether we are considering historical UPs and DOWNs or the current correction (or perhaps bear market) that we are in.

Sometimes overly preparing for one price direction can end up in decently large mistakes, and surely I have seen a lot of instances where so many peeps are failing/refusing to adequately prepare for UP.. They let the various FUD prepare them for DOWN way more than what would be financially beneficial to them in the long run.  

At the same time, I am ONLY going to go so far in terms of getting into any particular persons financial and psychological preparations, because even if we talk about various tools that you can attempt to employ to prepare yourself for either price direction, people ultimately have to decide for themselves, and part of my reason for continuing to bring UP the DCABTC data is to show a kind of mean performance that could have been achieved for anyone who just continuously buys and don't be fucking around with too many attempts to time the market (except maybe with small parts of your overall funds - just for funzies).. .. and so yeah, 13.5x in 5 years, is surely nothing to sneeze at, and I am not even going to concede that DCA is inferior merely because you might have been able to outperform such DCA strategy.  

By the way, I also won't criticize you very much either if you are somewhere in the ballpark of the historical DCA performance for the timeline, even if you have underperformed.  Actual under performance can provide a variety of teaching/learning tools for those who are ready, willing and able to learn, and I still will proclaim if you are seriously underperforming the DCA strategy in substantial ways (up to you to personally determine what is "substantial") then you are likely either doing something wrong and you likely have some things that you can learn from the DCA performance charts in terms of not fucking trying to play around with timing the market when in the end you are likely going to be doing better with simple, blind, consistent and persistent DCAing... and don't be turning that shit on and off.. just keep it on. and yeah, if you have some cashflow issues, you might have to adjust the amounts higher or lower, but there should be overall attempts to just keep it going in order to see the longer term benefits from it - whether we are talking about 5 years down the road, 7.5 years down the road, 15 years down the road or some other timeline target that in BTC investing seems to be higher and better with more passage of time.

Plus I would never tell anyone to use their money to FOMO buy the top, and “don’t worry about it, just use DCA”, because NO ONE has unlimited capital.

Usually it is better to just keep your DCA going no matter what, and when you start to fuck around with it, you tend to get things wrong.. so that is why I believe in the incorporation of the three categorizations of the approach that include lump summing and buying on dips.  The longer your timeline, such as 10 years or longer, it might not matter if you bought at the top, middle or bottom... Sure, you would have had more BTC, but you still might be quite a bit ahead by just persisting and continuing with buying rather than trying to figure out if we are at a top or not or if the bottom is low enough or not blah blah blah.  Not going to matter too much if you bought at $1k, $600 or $250 in 2014/2015.. when the BTC price is $38.5k today, no?  Yeah, you can second guess it blah blah blah.. but it could well be if you had set your DCA in 2013 and started buying at the $1,163 top, you still could have gotten down to an average BTC price of $400 to $600 throughout the period of the next few years, and maybe you end up acquiring around 30 BTC (with your $15k).. and yeah you can think of all kinds of scenarios that you could have gotten lower prices with that $15k and got more than 30BTC.. but you did not really know which way the BTC price was going to go, either, so way better to have had gotten the 30BTC rather than not investing because of fear.. which is what happened to a whole hell of a lot of people in 2014, 2015 and 2016.. I remember a lot of those scared and whimpy fucks because I was participating in the forum with them around that time.  Sure some of them have come around, but still some of them have way less BTC than they’ve  could have had by merely regularly, somewhat blindly, consistently and persistently following DCA strategies during that period.. and even continuing such strategy until today would be O.k.. even with a person with a relatively small budget.


Look at $30 per week over the past 7 years.  Still would have gotten you around 12.38 BTC, and around a 40.75x price appreciation for that time period.  I find it really hard to argue with those kinds of results, even if many people want to do so.  

I actually recall some diptwat shilling some shitcoin during the 2017 BTC price rise, and I pretty much was sticking with my BTC strategy, and he was proclaiming that there are various shitcoins that you could get in order to outperform BTC grandpa coin.. blah blah blah.  Through that period I would make various proclamations such as I am around 3x in profits around $2k, and then I am around 14x profits at $10k, and then I am around 28x profits at $20k.  Part of his point is that I should be making more profits in a shorter period of time, so seems a bit crazy to me to take a lot of downside risk in terms of expecting more profits instead of attempting to have some contentment with the profits that were already being delivered... so in my thinking more profits is not necessarily a central aim when my BTC portfolio is already way overperforming, even my own expectations of 6% per year, and maybe by late 2017 I should be expecting 30% to 50% profits overall, but my BTC holds reached 28x and then crashed back down to around 4x, but still I am not complaining at all because I invested no more than I can afford to lose, and sure as we speak right now, there might be an assertion that my investment into BTC should have doubled by now over 7.5 years, and instead of doubling the overall performance at $38,500 remains around 55x in profits.. and even if I were to find that my cost per BTC should be around $1k (easier to calculate) rather than $700, I still would have 38.5x in profits.. We going to complain about that and say that the profits should be more because we could have timed some of our purchases a wee bit MOAR better?  I think that is ridiculous.  How many folks are able to beat 38.5x profits on a 7.5 year timeline?

[Copetech]

[Deleted Content]

Phenomenal Convo guys and A LOT of wisdom here! Thank You!

So obviously I'm new here, although I have been lurking for about a year, trying to siphon off as much knowledge & experience as I can before taking the leap. I know, I'm a bit late to the party and it may seem ridiculous to sit on the sidelines watching my Fiat shrink, but I'm a pretty conservative guy in that I've poured too much of my life and sweat equity into getting the meager pile I have. I just can't feel good about throwing it into a system of bits, bytes, & speculation until I have a reasonable understanding of what I'm getting into and how to plan for most likely success.

Here's where I'm at, mid forties, decent service based tech job, solid marriage, house paid off, no kids, no debt, and no real savings to mention. I think I should go pretty heavily into accumulation of BTC's and jump on this near 50% dippening aggressively, but I have to ease into it to get my wife fully on-board before I start really stacking. So the plan I'm looking at now, is putting a small 4 figure stack of Fiat into a investment account and look for opportunities to pick up sale prices while matching my weekly payroll SS withholdings as a minimum weekly buy in. That way, as payroll fluctuates, so too does my weekly investment. Now here is my question. If I am doing this as a focus on accumulating Sats as a hedge against obvious inflation, with the goal of leaving an adequate nest egg for retirement & support of my younger healthier lovely wife to enjoy in her sunset... why should I focus solely on Dollar averaging and Dollar dips? Why not split my weekly investments into 4 of the most prominent coins on different levels (thinking of BTC-5, ETH-4, LTC-3, ADA-2) and weight my purchase volumes each week according to how each of the 4 stands that day on a 30 day average. (I must interject before you say Fuck ShitCoins! and say END goal is definitely to stack SATS, so just stick with me a second longer) So then I have 3 stacks of Alts and 1 main stack of Sats, and I am now disconnected from the Dollar completely in my line of thinking. At this point I have 3 additional markets to watch for firesales and dips to buy BTC with. Say I catch a time when LTC has spiked 10% when BTC is simultaneously down 5%, so now I can buy BTC with a piece of my LTC stash at a 15% discount over what it would have cost me to initially purchase BTC. And then I notice my staked ADA's have multiplied into 40% more coins than I initially bought and the ADA/BTC ratio is down a couple points... grab some Sats with those free ADA coins and once again I have multiplied my accumulated BTC over what I would have had if I'd just gone all in with DCA USD/BTC market.
Is my thinking sound here? Making sense? Or am I just a Noob with a grand idea of throwing money off the cliff? What holes do you see? Any suggestions for how I might tweak the design?

[rahmatrf331]

Many are already seeing the best of the dip to buy, they know that it has great potential, that at any moment the price recovers and for many it produces profits, of course I extracted this from an interesting article:

TA: Bitcoin Grinds Higher, Here’s Why Dips Turned Attractive

Bitcoin price started a steady increase above the $36,000 resistance against the US Dollar. BTC even broke $37,000 and it is now showing positive signs.

Bitcoin gained bullish momentum above the $35,000 and $36,000 resistance levels.
The price is currently trading well above $36,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $36,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could correct lower, but the bulls are likely to remain active near $36,000.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/btc/bitcoin-btc-grinds-higher-38k/


This article made me remember this thread a lot, besides that the only thing missing is for them to say to buy in the fall and Hodl, however they give possible scenarios that may occur, if the scenario that occurs is bullish we will be able to see again the imminent recovery of BTC and maybe if everything goes well we will have another new ATH.

The problem is when it's bought, the price will go down again and continue to fall so that to get back up you have to wait for some time and time spent to produce nothing. it's better to buy when the market price is normal and start to rise again, it's more suitable to be bought and held for a certain time.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Phenomenal Convo guys and A LOT of wisdom here! Thank You!

So obviously I'm new here, although I have been lurking for about a year, trying to siphon off as much knowledge & experience as I can before taking the leap. I know, I'm a bit late to the party and it may seem ridiculous to sit on the sidelines watching my Fiat shrink,

Being late is a common misperception when it comes to bitcoin.  Even when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, there was a lot of perceptions of being late.. so "being late" is a persistent misperception.

but I'm a pretty conservative guy in that I've poured too much of my life and sweat equity into getting the meager pile I have.

I consider myself pretty damned conservative, too.  So, surely there is a lot of value in both wealth preservation and figuring out ways to make sure that it is also not depreciating.. so a bit of a problem keeping value in cash or cash-related investments.

I just can't feel good about throwing it into a system of bits, bytes, & speculation until I have a reasonable understanding of what I'm getting into and how to plan for most likely success.

You can learn as you go.  So if you are feeling a lot of reservations, just start out with $10 per week, and at least that will get you to set up some accounts that are related to bitcoin, and having a little bit of a stake in it will motivate you to learn more.  Of course, you might consider $10 a week to be too small, and that is on you regarding how much would seem sufficiently small but also allow you to feel comfortable about not giving too many shits if you lose all of it.  So another possibility could be creating a lump sum of $1k, and then $10 per week as you are studying the matter and figuring out whether you want to invest more or change your strategies or maybe even to figure out ways to get out or to time your getting out (if you choose to do so)

Here's where I'm at, mid forties, decent service based tech job, solid marriage, house paid off, no kids, no debt, and no real savings to mention. I think I should go pretty heavily into accumulation of BTC's and jump on this near 50% dippening aggressively, but I have to ease into it to get my wife fully on-board before I start really stacking. So the plan I'm looking at now, is putting a small 4 figure stack of Fiat into a investment account and look for opportunities to pick up sale prices while matching my weekly payroll SS withholdings as a minimum weekly buy in. That way, as payroll fluctuates, so too does my weekly investment.

All of that sounds pretty good.  Just make sure that you got your shit together in terms of NOT investing too much so that you end up panicking at the wrong time or needing to get some of your value out that is NOT completely at a time of your own choosing.  I personally suggest having at least a 4 year investment time horizon for any new cash that you put into bitcoin, and of course, if you have 10 years or longer, then you are even likely to be much better off.  Of course, having a 4 - 10 year minimum investment time horizon at the time of entering the investment does not limit your ability to exercise your own personal discretion to get the fuck out at any time that you feel like it.. but the thing is that if you are somewhat prudent and reasonable with the amount that you invest (by not investing too much) then there should be no reason to panic, except that you ended up managing your cashflows in a poor manner. 

Personally, I like to project my cashflow around 18 months in advance; however, when I was a bit more of a youngster like in my 20s, I did not have as many complications in my finances, and I would only project 6 months in advance, but anyhow what I am saying is that there can be some advantages to projecting out longer. .and surely anyone who is getting into their 30s or 40s is likely even in a better position to project out their cashflows.  Now if you have a kind of fucked up fluctuating payroll, then probably it is way better to both project out longer and also to error on the side of counting your income in terms of minimums.. So for example, if you monthly cash fluctuates between $1k and $6k per month, then I would tend to error on the side of counting the lower end of that cashflow, such as being close to $1k so that you are not caught with your pants down, and sure any particular month, you may well be able to UP your cashflow projections for that month when it becomes more certain regarding how much you are going to get - ev en if you have not received it yet, but I would still precaution on the side of not counting your chickens before they hatch in terms of erring on the side of being conservative in terms of whatever you expect to receive until you actually have that money in your grubby little hands (or in your bank account or however else you receive it). 

Now here is my question. If I am doing this as a focus on accumulating Sats as a hedge against obvious inflation, with the goal of leaving an adequate nest egg for retirement & support of my younger healthier lovely wife to enjoy in her sunset... why should I focus solely on Dollar averaging and Dollar dips? Why not split my weekly investments into 4 of the most prominent coins on different levels (thinking of BTC-5, ETH-4, LTC-3, ADA-2)

This thread is about bitcoin, and fuck those various shitcoins.  Of course, you are free to invest in shitcoins if you like, but it is likely not necessary, even though it is your choice... including the illogical idea of diluting your investment into non-leaders of a sector if you have already determined bitcoin to be the leader.  Of course, a lot of people are confused about whether bitcoin might not be the leader.. but whatever.. do what you gonna do..

By the way, here's a link to Michael Saylor's February 2021 discussion regarding diversification into non-leader projects, and maybe this will help you to the extent that you want to be helped and not distracted by the bullshit talking points of the various garbage value suck gambles that you mentioned.  We are talking about investing rather than gambling, right?

and weight my purchase volumes each week according to how each of the 4 stands that day on a 30 day average. (I must interject before you say Fuck ShitCoins! and say END goal is definitely to stack SATS, so just stick with me a second longer)

hahahahahaha

Funny that you already have a pretty good idea about what is going to be said, but you say it anyhow.

One question might be why dilute your investment into that other crap.

Another question might be whether you get to a pint that your investment is solid enough (in bitcoin) that you are feeling comfortable to gamble a wee bit in some other projects (crap).

Yeah, of course, part of the reason that you want to gamble rather than invest is that you do not feel that your investment amount is LARGE enough, so you want to take your chances that some crap projects might outperform BTC.. so in other words, yeah, you do not understand what differentiates bitcoin from those crap projects.. so there is ONLY so much that can be said in terms of your believing that there might be some long term value in those shit projects rather than considering them for the in and out gambles that they are and if you are going to fuck around with gambling, then the gambling should be in a different category rather than considering it as a long term investment strategy (which is where bitcoin fits).
 

So then I have 3 stacks of Alts and 1 main stack of Sats, and I am now disconnected from the Dollar completely in my line of thinking.

Who knows if you would end up getting disconnected from the dollar or if that is even a reasonable goal.

Of course, part of the goal should be to hedge your investments against the dollar, so that way if the dollar is not performing well you have investment(s) into something that is not dollar denominated, dollar pegged or dollar reliant... but still there is going to likely be a long time before we are completely removed from valuing in the dollar or having dollars as a kind of stable coin.

Actually, in recent times, almost any shitcoin has been performing better than the dollar, but merely because you can throw a dart at any random shitcoin and outperform the dollar does not necessarily mean that any of them is a good investment and that bitcoin would not already be adequately protecting you in terms of having a sufficient and adequate dollar hedge.

At this point I have 3 additional markets to watch for firesales and dips to buy BTC with. Say I catch a time when LTC has spiked 10% when BTC is simultaneously down 5%, so now I can buy BTC with a piece of my LTC stash at a 15% discount over what it would have cost me to initially purchase BTC. And then I notice my staked ADA's have multiplied into 40% more coins than I initially bought and the ADA/BTC ratio is down a couple points... grab some Sats with those free ADA coins and once again I have multiplied my accumulated BTC over what I would have had if I'd just gone all in with DCA USD/BTC market.
Is my thinking sound here? Making sense? Or am I just a Noob with a grand idea of throwing money off the cliff? What holes do you see? Any suggestions for how I might tweak the design?

I am starting to feel that I am allowing myself to go down this shitcoin discussion too much, and probably you need to take such discussion somewhere else if you really believe that it is worthy of exploration regarding the various trade offs including your desires to gamble with a portion of your investment.. Sure some of that could end up working just fine for you, especially if you work out various kinds of solid systems that do not end up costing you way more than they benefit you and also a lot of brainpower focused on various kinds of crap in terms of trying to figure out which one is going to pump and when and various other bullshit considerations regarding their nonsense talking poinkts..  So then whether you believe various factors of getting into shitcoin can apply some DCA and buying on dip principles in terms of some of our attempted discussions in this thread, then is that gambling or DCAing or what?

Again, fuck shitcoins and gambling and take that nonsense somewhere else... nothing against you personally.. just want to try to keep some of my own sanity rather than trying to weigh which shitcoin is less shitty for the moment versus another versus pumpamentals versus blah blah blah. .... getting a headache just thinking about such nonsense or the various factors related to which shitcoin is less bad.

[Copetech]

[edited out]

Again, fuck shitcoins and gambling and take that nonsense somewhere else... nothing against you personally.. just want to try to keep some of my own sanity rather than trying to weigh which shitcoin is less shitty for the moment versus another versus pumpamentals versus blah blah blah. .... getting a headache just thinking about such nonsense or the various factors related to which shitcoin is less bad.

LMAO 🤣

Gotta say, that was a little bit expected.

Let's try a different tactic to see if we can cut the "gambling" mentality out of it.
The point I'm going for is not gambling at all it's an attempt to maximize BTC accumulation via multiple levels of dip weighted DCA. Then using the variable of different exchange rates to work all of my funds into BTC. The only "Investment" I am looking to HODL is BTC but by weighing 4 different paths to get there, I think I should be able to significantly improve my accumulation rate over straight USD/BTC DCA. In other words taking advantage of the fact that Sats are a lot cheaper this week in LTC than they were last week in USD. It's still the theme of this convo because it's still focusing on DCA and buying dips to stack more Sats... it's just taking the singular focus off of the USD to maximize the versatility of 4 different markets.

And Jay,
I greatly appreciate the wealth of knowledge you have shared in this thread, so if you say "Fuck Off I don't even wanna think about it!" That's cool. I'd still buy you a pint if we ever met in a bar.

[Inspiron14]

make it a habit to buy when the price is below, this is what should be used when trading or investing in the world of crypto currencies,
because the price of crypto currencies has very high volatility, so we have to really use it as a good opportunity, so wait at lower prices.
after that you can hold until the time comes, keep calm and hold,

[nurilham]

it's better to buy when the market price is normal and start to rise again, it's more suitable to be bought and held for a certain time.

How do you know the price of a crypto Bitcoin is already normal? I just know if there is a normal term in Bitcoin price. Since I joined crypto trading or investment, I only know if it is always fluctuating. It is because of the big volatility in the crypto market/prices. So, I am a bit difficult to determine if it is a normal price or not. If you have an article that provides knowledge about knowing the normal price in Bitcoin, please let me know and share it with me. I want to learn it.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

LMAO 🤣

Gotta say, that was a little bit expected.

Let's try a different tactic to see if we can cut the "gambling" mentality out of it.
The point I'm going for is not gambling at all it's an attempt to maximize BTC accumulation via multiple levels of dip weighted DCA. Then using the variable of different exchange rates to work all of my funds into BTC.

Whether we are talking about buying on dips, HODL or DCA, there is an underlying presumption that the asset that you are investing into has strong fundamental values in that if you fell into a coma for 4-10 years, and you woke up after that period of time, you would not mind being investing into that or even if you anticipate the possibility that you could be stuck in your investment for 4-10 years, you are going to choose based on an assessment that your investment choice(s) has fundamental values for that period of time.

So, sure, you do not want to call it gambling because your aim is to stack more BTC from it, but so what regarding what you call it.  

I will say that if you come to an assessment that any shitcoins have strong long term fundamentals, then you can use DCA, buy on dip and HODL strategies with them.  I am not willing to jump to such presumption in this thread, and there is already an assumption that anyone who is investing in BTC with DCA, buy on dips or HODL has reached a kind of fundamental value assessment regarding BTC.

I am also NOT proclaiming that individually, you might not be able to reach such value assessments regarding some other coins (besides bitcoin) but that is likely a lengthy discussion and off topic here.

Sure, I understand your other point that you are NOT planning to assess those various shitcoins as having value, but you want to just play them for the short term to get more bitcoin, and again those involve other considerations that relate to gambling or trading rather than long term investing and is again off topic here.;.. even though I am not even proclaiming that you might not be able to accomplish those kinds of trade offs in categorizing various coins.. those kinds of discussions and considerations are also outside of the parameters of this thread.

The only "Investment" I am looking to HODL is BTC but by weighing 4 different paths to get there, I think I should be able to significantly improve my accumulation rate over straight USD/BTC DCA.

Still a different set of calculations when it comes to your incorporation of shitcoins into your DCA accumulation.. and probably there are all kinds of folks and threads out there on this forum that want to entertain or discuss the playing of those kinds of games (I have heard it many times before too), and if there is not a thread, then you can create one... I am not personally interested it is outside of the topic of this thread.

In other words taking advantage of the fact that Sats are a lot cheaper this week in LTC than they were last week in USD. It's still the theme of this convo because it's still focusing on DCA and buying dips to stack more Sats... it's just taking the singular focus off of the USD to maximize the versatility of 4 different markets.

It is not the same considerations... this thread is BTC/usd.. not playing around with various shitcoins... or discussing the dynamics of playing with them here.. it is too broad of a topic, and not even suggesting that it might not be an interesting or productive approach.. but still not relevant here.

And Jay,
I greatly appreciate the wealth of knowledge you have shared in this thread, so if you say "Fuck Off I don't even wanna think about it!" That's cool. I'd still buy you a pint if we ever met in a bar.

Hahahaha.. no problem.  Of course, I don't make the rules, enforce them and I may even be wrong half the time (or more) about interpretations, and in the end, I am just another forum member.  

I do sometimes express my opinion strongly, and probably if someone tries to persist with shitcoin discussions in bitcoin threads then sooner or later they would get reported.. and the forum admins would have to decide whether to delete such posts or whatever other actions to take.. Sometimes forum admins can be a bit more stringent about deviation from topics, but probably they will allow some leeway if the thread does not seem to be diverting too much and there are just differing interpretations regarding what is "on topic" and what is not.

By the way, if you and I (and maybe another acquaintance or two) were having beers together, and some of us wanted to talk about bitcoin, and then others wanted to talk about their innovative strategies to stack sats using shitcoins, sure we might be willing to entertain the topic for a while, and sure, I might be willing to have such conversations for a decently long period of time if we were communicating well, but maybe at some point, one of us might decide to end the conversation or to walk away because we were either no longer interested in the topic or where it was going.  When we are on a public thread, sometimes there can be a bit of ruthlessness and even lack of tolerance once the conversation deviates too much from the parameters of the OP or the thread topic.

Of course, if while we were drinking the beer, we realize that we were long lost cousins, then we also might be more tolerant and willing to put up with conversations that deviated from our interests because we found out that we were going to be spending thanksgiving together with you me and our mutual aunt Bessie, so we knew that we had to get along because neither of us wanted to piss off aunt Bessie.

make it a habit to buy when the price is below, this is what should be used when trading or investing in the world of crypto currencies,
because the price of crypto currencies has very high volatility, so we have to really use it as a good opportunity, so wait at lower prices.
after that you can hold until the time comes, keep calm and hold,

This thread is not about "crypto" we are talking about bitcoin here.

it's better to buy when the market price is normal and start to rise again, it's more suitable to be bought and held for a certain time.

How do you know the price of a crypto coin is already normal? I just know if there is a normal term in crypto price. Since I joined crypto trading or investment, I only know if the crypto price is always fluctuating. It is because of the big volatility in the crypto market/prices. So, I am a bit difficult to determine if it is a normal price or not. If you have an article that provides knowledge about knowing the normal price in crypto, please let me know and share it with me. I want to learn it.

This thread is not about "crypto" we are talking about bitcoin here.

[Copetech]

[edited out]

By the way, if you and I (and maybe another acquaintance or two) were having beers together, and some of us wanted to talk about bitcoin, and then others wanted to talk about their innovative strategies to stack sats using shitcoins, sure we might be willing to entertain the topic for a while, and sure, I might be willing to have such conversations for a decently long period of time if we were communicating well, but maybe at some point, one of us might decide to end the conversation or to walk away because we were either no longer interested in the topic or where it was going.  When we are on a public thread, sometimes there can be a bit of ruthlessness and even lack of tolerance once the conversation deviates too much from the parameters of the OP or the thread topic.

Of course, if while we were drinking the beer, we realize that we were long lost cousins, then we also might be more tolerant and willing to put up with conversations that deviated from our interests because we found out that we were going to be spending thanksgiving together with you me and our mutual aunt Bessie, so we knew that we had to get along because neither of us wanted to piss off aunt Bessie.

Fair points all around. BTW how's old aunt Bessie doing anyway?

[nurilham]

This thread is not about "crypto" we are talking about bitcoin here.

I've revised it, thank you to let me know.

By the way, I think it is still on topic. But it is a mistake on writing 'crypto' only. I have read again my post above and I assume it is okay for now. I appreciate very much you want to let me know my mistake. I promise to be more careful in reading. 

-snip-

I think you need to check again your quote.
It seems there is a mistake. Better to correct it, buddy.