Stablexcoin's prediction
reframed into comprehensiveness
Below $500k - 1% or less
Low-end prediction: $500k - $800k - 69%
High end: $1M - $2M - 29%
Greater than $2 million - 1% or less
You can tweak these numbers if you like.. but at least the categories are not logically fallacious if you at least account for all of the possibilities, which your earlier example did not and your earlier example likely assigned too high of values to your two price range possibilities, even though surely you are free to believe whatever you like, even if you are living in a fantasy with your failure/refusal to acknowledge all possibilities.
I believe that such predictions like this are more realistic and thank you for modifying my predictions. However, no one knows the closest outcomes as time and time again will pass, when new people will begin to adopt Bitcoin.
We don't need to know all of the specifics in order to attempt to assign realistic probabilities that we believe to be the case at the time that we make the prediction and with the information that we have at the time that we make the prediction.
Of course, if we are predicting 10 years out, then it takes quite a long time to find out which one of the scenarios ends up playing out and the one that plays out ends up becoming 100% and the others become 0%.. but we don't know until it happens.
Surely, we can run the same experiment with a shorter-timeline, and frequently we will see that even the scenario that we considered most likely to happen ends up not happening, but then surely if we divide them up into enough subdivisions, we might still see that we can group some of them and see that we might be directionally correct, but just not correct about the exact number.
Also on a 10 year timeline, there could be some significant happenings that end up contributing to our needs to make considerable changes to our numbers in certain ranges that we had previously selected.
Let's go back to my original prediction.
So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:
1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover) - less than 1%
2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) - less than 5%
3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) - less than 8%
4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) - less than 9%
5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) - less than 10%
6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) - around 10%
7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
11) Go to a price that is higher $10m - around 7%
[edited out]
Let say for example that in the next 6 months, bitcoin prices go to somewhere in the ballpark of mid $100ks, but then they spend the next 6-9 months bouncing around between $12k and $180k, so then those subsequent facts that were not known or realized at the time that I made the prediction would likely cause me to change some aspects of the prediction, even though I am still stuck with what I had said earlier, I can still revise my prediction for that future date that has become 9 years rather 10 years.. but then at the same time, I could also stick with my earlier numbers and conclude that either not enough time or enough significant events had occured to cause me to tweak my numbers.. and surely, since I was pretty specific and comprehensive in my numbers there are likely going to be some of the ranges that I might want to change or tweak at some point between now and 10 years from now.. and surely when we get to be around 8 years down the road, we are likely going to be moving closer to one or another outcome in which all of the others might either no longer seem relevant or maybe their numbers would go down to very low amounts based on likelihoods changing quite significantly.
For sure if the BTC price were in the range of $2 million to $10 million 8 years from now.. let's say that it is mostly bounding between $4 million and $6 million between 7 and 8 hears from now.. so then at that point, it would seem a quite waste of time for me to maintain such granular breakdown of the prices between 1) less than $10 and
between $500k and $1million and the various points in between. I could probably reduce those 8 categories into 2-3 categories and while at the same time attempt to get more specific on categories 9, 10 and 11...
and this is not playing around with models and trying to be correct, because in the end, who gives any shits about whether I am correct or not, since my correctness hardly matters as much as some of the preparations that I might make that attempt to account for all of the possibilities in either price direction from whatever place I am at in the current moment, and I can create my plans and continue to execute my plans in such ways that attempt to continuously account for various scenarios in either price direction.
This will bring about an increase in demand leading to an increase in the price. And then the next bull run will go higher than the previous ATH. We can only assume that due to growing adoption and the decrease of supply due to the halving of the price new ATH will break.
I personally believe that you are continuing to assign too much weight to some kinds of presumptions that the BTC price has to go up, and yeah, sure my base case is also that BTC price is going up forever, laura.. but still, it is neither inevitable and it is not even likely as high of a percentage as you might compromise and suggest that it is ONLY 98% rather than 100%.. and so even though you are free to believe and do whatever you like, I still think that you are living in a fantasy land if you are suggesting that the odds of up are 99% and the odds of down ar only 1% or whatever other seemingly outrageously biased framework you are maintaining in your thinking about the matter.
Yeah, sure I understand that many of us have hard times NOT thinking in black and white, because ultimately when the future ends up happening, some outcome will have happened to the exclusion of all of the other outcomes, but then we still might need some nuance in terms of how we outline the potential outcomes, whether we are talking 10 years down the road or whether we are just dealing with BTC price dynamics in a cycle by cycle basis.
Yes, I agree that bitcoin is amongst the best if not the best investment that we can make, and so in that sense it is an asymmetric bet to the upside in which there are great odds of ongoing and persistent upside performance, so the most that we can lose is 100% as long as we do not engage in leveraging and other forms of gambling/trading.
But having so many favorable aspects, any of who expect to be able to profit from our bitcoin, we have to be able to stay in the game and to balance our exposure to account for decent number of scenarios, whether short term of projecting further out, such as 10 years or longer.
Jay, do you know that there are a lot of people who believe such a price prediction could happen? (above 100k by 2024 and 1M before 2030) . Lots were expecting $100k by the end of the year.
Ok. sure, you can account for what people say, but in the end you have to figure out what you are going to do and to assign your own probabilities to a variety of scenarios.. whether we are talking about 2024 or 2030.. otherwise what are you doing? who are you following? People say all kinds of stuff that may or may not be very well thought out, and even $100k within 2024 is currently seeming a bit bearish.. same is true with the $1 million by 2030.. but whatever.. I don't have any problem accounting for what people say and what might be their various bases for what they are saying.
Anyway, that's enough price talk.
This thread is about price.
Let's keep the conversation on how we can buy more and hold long-term. There will be much more upside for much less risk. Of course, the price will be higher or lower for years to come. Either way, bitcoin will do what it is known to do the best which is to outperform the market.
Ok... and if you consider yourself to be an investor rather than a trader, then where are you at in your investment journey? Are you in your accumulation phase, or have you gotten enough.. and if you feel that you have enough, then sure, there are likely several kinds of considerations in regards to managing your BTC holdings.. including where you might be holding all or most of it, and then perhaps if you might have some BTC that you keep in hot wallets so that you are potentially using it from time to time.. .. and if you are not at a point of using your BTC you still might move your BTC from time to time in terms of places that you might accumulate it and then where you might later move it in terms of holding some of it or most of it in cold storage..
I feel like am a time traveler, very optimistic about Bitcoin.
70k pre-halving 2024
We have been $70k and supra $70k for the last couple of weeks, and so you are not being very adventurous there.. and surely it seems that you are just suggesting BTC prices will stay in the same ranges that it has been .. which yeah, sure that is fair enough since the halvening is only 3-ish weeks away.. .. and I frequently consider one of the safest predictions is to stick with the current price, even if there could be some variation.. give or take 5-10% or perhaps more.
85k - 100k after 2024 halving
Sounds pretty bearish.. but hey.. whatever.
I would suggest $120k to $180k in 2024 and then reassess from there to see (or verify) if buy support is able to keep up.
Maybe a new cycle bear around 45k low
Also pretty bearish.. It seem that prices in 2025 are going to be higher (at least the cycle top likely to be in 2025), and so the bearish cycle is not too likely to come before 2026.. but still anything can happen.. .. and so maybe the cycle low might end up coming back down to challenge $100k-ish.. but not necessarily go back into 5 digits..
And, hey don't get me wrong.. I hardly give any shits.. I am just suggesting what I consider to be fairly likely scenarios.. which maybe are only in the 10%-20% range, but they still would be considered as my own base scenario.. .. even though financially and psychologically I am ongoingly prepared for BTC prices to go in either direction... that is part of the reason that I still have buy orders down to $20k-ish even though I consider it unlikely that anytime between now and the end of 2025 we are going to have BTC prices less than 20% from the 200-WMA.. and the 200-WMA continues to move up.. which you can see in
my entry-level fuck you status chart and also in the
sustainable withdrawal tool.
and 250kk at the top in 10 10-year journey.
You hardly can claim to be bullish, and surely, I have no problem with considering and maintaining conservative financial preparations.
When I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, my hope was to be able to average something like a 6% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), yet of course, the first 3 years of my being in bitcoin included a lot of negative and/or flat price performance, so it may well be questionable the extent to which BTC was going to be able to meet such hopes.. but with any investment, we frequently will need to prepare for down periods, and surely if you look at the charts, by the end of 2015, there started to form decently good on-the-ground evidence (price performance) reasons for hope and recovery of the prices to go from being in the negative to at least break even end even starting to be positive, and surely the period between November 2015 and May 2016 also seemed like a pretty long period of just waiting to see if there might be some abilities for my portfolio to go into profitabilities, and so it can take a while and there can be some value in terms of NOT establishing unrealistic upside expectations. and/or even taking those upside expectations for granted...
So sure in some sense you are way too bearish in your 10-year prediction (also considering that to be around 50% gold's market cap**), but at the same time, you are too narrow in your description regarding where you expect the BTC price to be..
** - a little side tangent.. BTC is about 1,000x more valuable than gold, yet it is currently around 1/10th gold's price. Sure it could take 50-200 years or longer for these prices to play out, but still anyone who at least recognizes the way the markets are pricing these assets should be able to recognize, appreciate and/or take advantage of such likely ongoing arbitrage opportunity.There surely are balances that need to be struck, and sometimes it can be quite difficult to even invest more than 10% of your income, so each of us has to figure out how much we are able to do, that might also involve tradeoffs that we make in terms of gaining job skills and/or experiences that might contribute to our abilities to earn more later down the road...so yeah, it seems that you overall understood these comparative matters, even though you seemed to be fighting with the hypothetical in several areas, too.
You know no-one can be as good as you in cooking up this hypothetical but we do our best to understand you and it sure passes a lot of message, after reading through all your quote I started seeing what you were trying to explain and I noticed that you tried to keep the senerio equal for each of them, I maybe got a little confused or maybe trying to suggest something outside the context, but anyway I'm good now, I've understood you quite well.
It is good that you are trying to grapple with the various scenarios, and I surely understand that sometimes the descriptions could end up becoming a bit confusing - so yeah, I am not trying to be overly harsh on you or any of the other guys if maybe sometimes my communication of the ideas might not always be clear or easy to understand.
We are not always going to agree, either.. and sometimes the presumptions might not be great or the examples might be read for making a point than what I might have had been attempting to make..
If you don't agree with some of the presumptions or if you believe that there might be some better or more accurate comparisons, then surely you should feel free to present those kind of ideas.
There can be some advantages in terms of attempting to standardize some of the examples, even though with any example, guys are likely to NOT follow the examples with exactness, and they are likely to deviate from the examples for a variety of reasons including possible irregularities in their cashflow or their expenses, or even sometimes, they might decide that they want to try to trade some kind of a price move and sometimes they might get lucky and other times they might regret some of the ways that they might deviate, yet we learn from our own ways of putting these kinds of ideas to practice... .. So even though personally, I would not want to get into talking about all the so many ways that guys might deviate, I tend to prefer trying to stick with some of the more sound of practices that might end up showing differences between whimpy and aggressive approaches, and even when a guy actually goes to apply his own approach from one perspective or another, he may well realize that he might have had gone overboard in one direction or another.. so then he might learn from his own mistakes, but hopefully mistakes that are not so bad as to take any of us out of the game.. since it is better that we might make some small mistakes rather than ending up having to start over because we end up losing most or all of our bitcoin.
Your very right, not everyone would be able to invest up to 10% of his income into bitcoin for different reasons and some cam be because they feel they need all their income for various other things, so yeah the guys in the hypothetical are already very unique for been able to invest up to that % of their income into any asset at all. IMO I think for anyone to be able to invest in bitcoin is not really a rocket science, everyone just needs to figure out what they can be able to invest into bitcoin and DCA makes it better you can invest at intervals that suite your income, not everyone must go up to 10% weekly and just like guy 1 although he wasn't too aggressive like other guys in the hypothetical he was able to still have a hood value in bitcoin over the years,
That is one of the great things about bitcoin, and surely I frequently recommend that guys try to be as aggressive as they are able to be in terms of accumulating bitcoin, there still is the practicality of the matter that we might have limitations in terms of how aggressive that we are able to be in terms of our own financial/psychological resources, and we also might find that we have to go through some steps of getting our finances and psychology in order prior to becoming more aggressive, so in that regard, it likely would be better to make sure that we are not overdoing our level of aggressiveness, and no one is going to feel sorry for us or help us out if we end up screwing up and doing more than we should have had done.. so in that regard, we might want to consider that whenever we choose to engage in some levels of risk, that we are both recognizing the risk and ready, willing and able to accept the consequences if some of the risk-taking that we employ does not play in our favor... and so sometimes we might be tempted to play around with some ways to try to get more BTC than we might be able to get by more normal and strict DCA ways... and so then if we lose 1% to 5% of our BTC, we might consider it worth it.. but sometimes it is better to just not go down the risk taking mode until you have gotten to a certain BTC stack size through more traditional, normal and strictly conservative ways.. and then once your stack is of a significant size there could be some ways that a bit can be shaved off for extra experimentations.
so if anyone wants to invest we should try not to be too competitive with ourselves because in some way many of us here might have disclosed how much we have or are Currently allocating to bitcoin and end up wearing themselves trying to meet up, so in conclusion your hypothetical passes a lot of message on how we can stay in our own lane and do what we can.
Yeah, some members might have more financial abilities than the hypothetical guys and other members might have to divide the number by 10 in order for the hypothetical to be realistic or to make sense in comparison to their own circumstances.
I personally would not necessarily conclude or presume that guy2 has any readiness, willingness or ability to front load into bitcoin.. not based on the facts given and/or the fact that he has already built an investment portfolio or $150k.. Now if the facts were different, he might have some extra funds for front loading, but it surely is not presumed in the facts that I had given... especially since I am trying to describe and characterize guy 2 as a relatively conservative guy who may well be aggressive, but that does not mean that he is a gambler.. merely because he is already being aggressive and has already historically been aggressive in his investment with having had achieved investing $100k over 10 years.. and just on the face, guy2 invested way more than either guy1 or guy3 who invested $40k and $60k respectively over the last 10 years, and the ONLY reason that guy2's portfolio is not as good as the portfolios of guy1 or guy3 is because guy2 had been investing in traditional investments like index funds and ONLY just found out about BTC.
Although I wasn't opportunied to reply to this set of senerios when you first made the post, I am mostly focused on your third paragraph cause it seem to be drawing a line between beign aggressive and some thing like gambling, guy 2 might not really be ready to front load too much into bitcoin considering that he has been investing in more traditional asset and would not want to over allocate outside his normal means or state of cashflow and its also possible that he is still investing in his old investment since I guess it wasn't clearly stated in your explanation. IMO I think investing above our means or trying to get to aggressive in a way that would affect us or other if our investment is not a very wise thing to do and can be seen as gambling and we should draw a line between how aggressive we should be and when we are going too far.
These might not be easy choices for guy2 because once he heard about and figured out bitcoin enough to want to invest into it, he may well want to aggressively invest into it, and maybe he even wants to get his bitcoin investment to become 25% of his current portfolio size, and if his current portfolio size is $150k, then 25% of that would be $37,500, but he really ONLY has around $200 per week of investible income that is coming in, so whether he just starts to DCA into BTC using the totality of that $200 per week or he takes from his current portfolio, these are dilemmas, including that many guys do not want to get taxable events upon merely moving value around that they believe that they are not actually realizing the gain, even though it becomes taxable.. and also if he has been investing through both employer matched accounts and tax advantaged accounts, then he might have some dilemmas about how to get bitcoin exposure. .. .so he would have to be particularly motivated to get BTC directly in order to forgo the tax deferred status of the accounts.. and the employer matching..
And, sure it could be the case that we are talking about a guy who does not have any employer matching and/or tax deferred status on the accounts, so it would be easier for that kind of a guy to just move his 200 per week from his traditional investment and into bitcoin.. so then if he is buying BTC at $200 per week, it is still going to take him more than 3 years (around $10.4k per year - and $31,200 after 3 years) to get up to $37,500 invested into BTC.. and in the meantime, both the size of his total investment portfolio and also his BTC value would have changed through that time that he is investing into BTC at $200 per week. and he might start to feel that he needs to invest, 4-5 years into bitcoin at that rate before he starts to feel that he is at a proper BTC allocation level, even though he might value from how much he is putting into BTC rather than how much it is worth,
and if BTC continues to outperform traditional assets like it has historically done, then he will end up having way higher than 25% allocations into bitcoin.. which surely, I personally don't have any problem with letting your winners ride rather than letting an overperformance of bitcoin to deter continued investment into it. at least until reaching the initial investment allocation targets.. and then also once he might start to feel comfortable with his having had reached his allocation target, then at that point, he might revert back to diversifying what he is investing into - even though his thoughts on the ideas of how to invest and how to diversify might have had changed after he presumptively spends 3-5 years investing into bitcoin at $200 per week... yet when it comes time for him to reassess his investment approach, he is going to end up being informed by his likely having had looked into BTC and also reconsidered investment matters in the prior 3-5 years.
I guess the time factor put guy2 behind in his investment cause he had already been more aggressive than the other guys but found out about bitcoin late, guy 3 seems to interest me quite well since he has been very fairly aggressive even if not up to 25%, but I'm some of your earlier post you have made mention of 10%-15% been okay for someone who started investing like 5-7 years ago, so I guess in some way all of this guys were already fairly aggressive in a way, and guy 2 to me is as aggressive as he should as someone who is just discovering about bitcoin.
There surely are going to be personally circumscribed parameters in regards to how aggressive a guy really can be, so in that regard, I still think that the most important factor just ends up being putting time into the market and just continuing to plug away, whether you are able to do the higher amounts of 15% to 25% or maybe you are not even able to do 10%, but you still keep plugging away and doing what you can, and live your life in the meantime.. and if you end up putting lower amounts, you likely are going to realize that it is going to take longer, but you may well not really have much of a choice anyhow in terms of speeding up the matter... and so let's say that you are carrying out certain kind of jobs that pay you $2k to $3.5k per month.. so you are feeling o.k. about that and you are able to reasonably stack sats with that level of income.. but then you realize that if you spend 12-18 months attending some kind of a professional program, then you could increase your income up to double of what you are currently making and perhaps even more down the road... but the program will likely cost money and you might have to cut back on your current job.. perhaps even completely quitting your current job.. so those are choices that guys have to make. and there might not even be certainty that they will be able to increase their income by as much as they believe.. or there might even be higher and more lucrative opportunties that might come from certain kinds of training and/or professional experience paths that guys might choose to go down.
We invest in Bitcoin and many use a variety of strategies. My strategy is that I split the hold into two sections. And the first hold is until the 2028-2032 halving (more likely longer if needed), and my second hold is for every halving bull run. I am thinking of keeping the hold which I have followed the DCA method till the year (2028-2032) of course. This is how I plan my investment strategy according to the road map.
Hopefully you have your ratios correct.. since you are planning to hold long term for half and trade with the other half.. which we are not advocating here.. so you have found your own short-cut and attempt to gamble with part of your BTC holdings, and hopefully it does not screw you up in your BTC accumulation journey.. especially since it seems that you are barely in bitcoin for a year and you are cannot resist the idea but to trade half of your stash.
And also your second half of your stash, you are barely even thinking in terms of 4-8 year investment time horizon.. so unless you have some specific reason to shorten your investment timeline, I doubt you are even thinking in long term time lines with either portion of your stash..
And, sure in the end, you are free to do whatever you like when it comes to your BTC accumulation strategy and your supposedly long term plans that do not really sound like long term plans but instead plans to trade one cycle and then the next cycle.
[edited out]
The truth is, when it comes to investment in bitcoin for long term HODL, there is basically no need for the predictions. What will you use the information of your prediction for? Your concern is how to add more bitcoin to your portfolio and not to fan that ego of being able to predict the price movement using whatever data, it is a total waste of time.
Following the conversation here, I have realized that the best way to go about this is a dual approach that comprise of predominantly DCA and
buying with lump sum when the need arises. I mean, just continue to buy using the DCA and when price goes down so much that you feel it is a nice point to get more bitcoin using lump sum, then that can be done while allowing the DCA method to still be running smoothly. With this approach you will not miss any opportunity of getting bitcoin and enjoying sharp rises in price should there be spike as a result of the coming halving and more in the future.
You seem to be conflating the ideas of lump sum and buying on dips. They are not the same thing.
You seem to actually be buying on dips, but you are calling it lump sum because it is a larger amount than your DCA amount.
A more clear understanding is having a lump sum or coming accross some extra money and then deciding if you are going to invest right now.. at current prices... If you decide to hold some or all of it for buying on dips then that is buying on dips, it no longer falls into a category of lump sum.
Sure, you can use whatever language you like and describe things however, you like, but if you are describing buying on dips as lump sum, then at that point you have to know or figure out what the fuck is lump sum, and it is not the same as buying on dips... so then what are you going to do in order to describe an actual lump sum situation?
The idea of front-loading an investment could apply to any of the BTC accumulation methods of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips, since front-loading is a kind of practice to attempt to invest more than you otherwise would because you might not have a lot of confidence that the BTC price is going to go down during the period that you are employing the front-loading, so in that sense, if you are front-loading yourBTC investment, you are trying to put some additional preparations into the possibility of UP than you otherwise would do.. and so sometimes someone who is new to BTC, they might feel that they do not have enough BTC, so they might purposefully go out of their way to front-load their investment into BTC in order to attempt to make sure that they are prepared for up, just in case.
You can only check the correlation of there analysis and yours before you assume or make any decision, the uniqueness of financial market is that; while some are buying others are selling, while you some are anticipating a drop others are anticipating a pump. So the best decision ever is on you and not any analyst, advisors or speculator.
You don't need to check any correlation of any analyst or whatever. You believe bitcoin has the potential of growth and that is all you need. Simply pay attention to buying and securing it and not some analysts that will not even hesitate to spread fear and panic and make you sell your bitcoin premature.
hahahahaha.. This is a good point. Each of us has to make sure that we are taking responsibility and figuring out our own allocation and investment into bitcoin in terms of our own assessments of our financial/psychological situation and our sense of the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis.
So actually the only way someone could expect a good return from Bitcoin in the future is that after you have drawn your plan for ten or more years holding you should continue your regular accumulation of Bitcoin, however let's say your targets is achieving $24k in ten years, if your cash flow is enough you could strategize your accumulation in $50 weekly and within ten years you could be surprised to see how far you have gone.
You are correct that after 10 years you would have had invested right around $24k.. so that would not be a bad target for anyone to consider, and surely over 10 years there could be variance in the amount that he is able to invest, but if he is at least shooting for $50 per week, then he is on track, since after 1 year he would have had invested $2,600, and so then after 10 years he would have had invested $26k.. .. so then the next question would be how well might his investment perform over that time?
There are bearish, bullish and maybe various scenarios in between, so as we have done previously, we could create various projections that show each of the various scenarios, even though we are not exactly going to know which one of the scenarios ended up playing out until we get 10 years down the road.. yet we can continue to monitor where we are and the extent to which we might be over or under performing expectations... and part of the value of maintaining somewhat conservative expectations likely relates to better psychological results that would likely come from overperformance rather than underperformance.. and if we fear underperformance, then surely we can choose to invest less or invest in a way that we are not creating too many overly optimistic frameworks... which then also brings us into both our choice to invest in the first place and also what we choose to invest into (presumptively bitcoin in the spirit of the subject matter of this thread).
We invest in Bitcoin and many use a variety of strategies. My strategy is that I split the hold into two sections. And the first hold is until the 2028-2032 halving (more likely longer if needed), and my second hold is for every halving bull run. I am thinking of keeping the hold which I have followed the DCA method till the year (2028-2032) of course. This is how I plan my investment strategy according to the road map.
The personal investment strategy that you are implementing may only be suitable for people who have a lot of patience in carrying it out because I am not sure that other investors will also be able to do something like this until the year you mentioned. Especially if in the middle of the journey there are big benefits that appear before our eyes, which in general will definitely have the feeling to take them and will not just waste them.
Wow wmaurik!! You seem to have even a shorter timeline than FinePoine0.
Both of you are failing/refusing to appreciate the power of a long term investment, which is 4-10 years or longer, and there should be emphasis on the longer rather than barely fitting into the definition because you are wanting to play the waves.
What is it exactly that you need the BTC for? You are wanting to get BTC profits in order to invest into something else, what is it?
Are you wanting to consume? Are you looking at getting into real estate? or to invest into other stuff? What is it?
Why are either of you able to recognize that 4-10 years or longer is not attempting to play the waves and to get in and out of bitcoin or whatever it is that you are planning to do.
Think about it.. why are you into bitcoin? for fiat gainz?
Think about another thing... why is that the minimum investment time horizon 4 years? that is a whole cycle and should help to point out that we should not be getting into bitcoin in order to play the cycles.
Now let's say that there are some of us who are actually going to want or need the money that we are putting into bitcoin in less than 4 years, and sure we could do that but we would be trading rather than investing, and there are some chances that our attempt to play the wave is not going to work out. .but sure, we could try to play the wave .. if we are willing to recognize that the price might not move in our preferred direction. .whether we are shooting to buy a house or invest in a business or maybe we just happen to be an older person who may well need the cash in terms of health expenses that might come in older age.. so we are wanting to stay liquid and we cannot commit to at least 4 year investment... then we might not want to get into bitcoin, and if we do get into bitcoin on those terms then we likely would be investing less rather than more since we are more likely trading (or trying to play the wave) rather than actually investing.
So even though the strategy you are talking about looks good, I don't think there will be many people who want to follow it even though currently there are still many investors who want to buy Bitcoin using this method. But we all also don't know how long they will continue to buy like now because all investors definitely have very clear goals in implementing purchases from now on.
Well, at least you wmaurik have potentially been in bitcoin longer than FinePoine0 since you have been registered here for 9 years, so there may have had been some time that you have stacked a sufficient amount of BTC.. but yeah, it could be that you made a lot of mistakes too.. yet FinePoine0 has not even been registered on the forum for a year, so can we even speculated that he has much of a good plan, unless he had been able to front-load his BTC investment a lot, but it seems to me that he is largely in a mindset of figuring out ways to play the wave, and he has a plan to play this wave and a plan to play the next wave, and sure maybe he will just continue to try to play each wave, and it can be quite questionable if that is either a very good strategy or that it is even within the theme of this thread.. it is almost like he is talking about trading rather than investing.. even though sure guys can sell whenever they want, but his somewhat vague reference to what he is doing seems to be a bit of a deviance and/or distraction from a kind of longer term thrust of what kinds of BTC accumulation approaches that we might be trying to consider in this thread.
If ever I earn more money in a month then I must keep the remaining money for emergency fund.
Of course, there is emergency, reserves and float.. so there can be some advantages in regards to thinking about how the categories differ.. and so if you are using an emergency fund because you are trying to avoid having to tap into your bitcoin, then you might use reserve funds to try to avoid having to tap into your emergency fund... and yeah, of course, there can be questions regarding how much to keep in each, and there would be flexibility, and it would seem imprudent and/or overly risky for guys to not have at least 3 months worth of emergency funds.
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What's the need of selling your bitcoin holdings on such a probability that might never happen, how wiudl you know if we would be bearish next year, while it is true that bitcoin has its cycles, it is even more true that it is very unpredictable and trying to be too smart and trying to engage in buying and selling practices is just gambling or even trading, and worse you might never get to opportunity to buy at the prices which you sold off your holdings, I think your underestimating the power of long term holding in terms of profit. DCA works better when you are buying consistently over time and that's how you have an advantage over volatility not selling your asset just to make profits.
Exactly.. Selling and expecting to buy back cheaper (to increase your BTC stash) contains a lot of uncertainties, and seems so easy in theory, but not as easy in practice.... so then one of the main logical solutions is not to sell any of your BTC unless you are expecting to not be able to buy it back.. so then that means that you either have enough or you have excess... it is difficult for a bitcoin newbie to get to a position of having enough or excess bitcoin, but if a bitcoin newbie reaches a status of having enough or too much BTC, then he has more options regarding how to treat his BTC holdings.
so that also means that if the goal of selling your BTC is to be able to get more BTC, then that makes less sense than just continuing to buy BTC.. so that if you conclude that you don't have enough, you just keep buying until you have enough or too much.
I understand what I am saying does not make sense to some people, especially those who really believe that there is some value to try to sell BTC in order to buy back more, and so they are free to employ such strategy, which has questionable odds of success.. especially if it ends up getting the guy out of the buying and accumulating mindset.. which truly is the most assured way to actually build a bitcoin stash to high amounts.
The personal investment strategy that you are implementing may only be suitable for people who have a lot of patience in carrying it out because I am not sure that other investors will also be able to do something like this until the year you mentioned. Especially if in the middle of the journey there are big benefits that appear before our eyes, which in general will definitely have the feeling to take them and will not just waste them.
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I don't really like where your leading to with a big opportunity and that seems to be referring to selling, I don't think selling early or in between our journey is part of the plan cause that can be seen as trading if he selling too soon and yeah many of us here are rather planning to accumulate enough bitcoin over linger time ranges to be able to live off bitcoin once we stop working.
Yep.. the BIG opportunity seems to presume better places to put money than bitcoin and/or to use bitcoin profits for such purposes, rather than perhaps getting the money for "Big Opportunities" from other places.
Of course, when guys are young, they are likely going to come across opportunities and also sometimes need capital to get into certain kinds of deals/arrangements... but that still might not mean it would be a good idea to use bitcoin proceeds for these kinds of matters, yet at the same time, everyone is going to have to make these kinds of choices for themselves in terms of both balancing their finances and balancing where they have allocated their investments, whether it is time, energies and/or monetary value.
To me I actually think that having an investment goal is quite appropriate because as common man that just want to secure his or her future true Bitcoin, he just have to accumulate Bitcoin true the DCA method still he is satisfied with his or her current holdings, so when that target is met, the next question he should be asking himself is when is he willing to sell, like the numbers of years he is willing to hold or the amount he would be selling if the price of the asset in his possession reach that particular amount, so to me, investment goal should be made a priority, like if you are buying Bitcoin for retirement purpose, it's still good, as long as you have a specific goal in mind, because not having a specific goal in mind sometimes makes you act confused concerning your investment sometimes, because you don't have a specific vision before investing.
If you have a long term investment plan, I don't know if you need to have a specific goal - since you seem to be suggesting that there is a need to get in and then to get out of the investment... as if there is a better place to put the money.
Sure, if you get up to a certain size BTC stash, then you can start to withdraw from it, live off of it or use it to supplement or replace your income.
If you are building your BTC to try to reach a kind of fuck you status goal, you cannot be completely sure how long it is going to take to get there and you might not even be sure about whether you have gotten there are not, until you start to get close to getting there. You cannot necessarily establish the specifics in advance, even though you likely have some ballpark ideas, such as getting up to $2million in terms of value of BTC stash.. but then if it takes you 15-20 years to get to that point, you might have to consider if that amount is still correct or consider whether it needs to be adjusted, in either direction.. and also in terms of valuating BTC and other assets and/or currencies that you might have in you total investment portfolio.
