🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[BALIK]

Can someone explain hype around Diego Lopes? It is clear that the kid is talented. But he has got only 4 fights in UFC, but I often see him giving interviews or flashing somewhere. By the look on his record, he can both do striking and submitting people. But that is the level of non UFC. He fought Evloev (#5 among featherweight) on a 5-day notice, and in every round Evloev was saved by bell from being submitted. Impressive, but that is pretty much it. However, he is on #14 now.

You know, everyone in the world right now are a little crazy about young talents, there is no doubt that this guy is talented.
But I somewhat agreed that properly they are hyping the kid a little too much.

I do not like this. Because a lot of times I have seen so many fighters and athletes actually not be able to continue performing well or stay disciplined just because they have got a little too much pain in a very short period of time. You do not appreciate or understand the value of the thing that comes easily or quickly, that is human nature. it’s why a lot of fighters actually do not know what to do with the unfathomable fame that they have.

Obviously, I hope it turns out well for him. And may he be able to have a good career in the UFC. but I understand why UFC is doing this. After all, they are trying to find a mouth that can replace Connor McGregor. But I also sometimes doubt that this is the approach they are taking with him already

[TopTort777]

Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

[target]

Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

Watching the analysis, the houses trusts Makhachev can neutralize Poirier to the floor, that's what they see. Poirier pulling this upset will be a good profit.

Isn't it a good strategy to bet $20 for Makhachev 1.93 by submission and then on the other hand bet just $5 in case Poirier wins?  Just curious how you can make this situation beneficial.

[Pumared]

Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

Watching the analysis, the houses trusts Makhachev can neutralize Poirier to the floor, that's what they see. Poirier pulling this upset will be a good profit.

Isn't it a good strategy to bet $20 for Makhachev 1.93 by submission and then on the other hand bet just $5 in case Poirier wins?  Just curious how you can make this situation beneficial.

The problem is that Makhachev can't neutralize it, and Poirier will come with everything. So Makhachev will need to deal with this. I remember that in fight 1 against Volka, he suffered a lot. So it is a path to be explored.

[TopTort777]

I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

[pawel7777]

I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger thread to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

It's not either/or situation. The only reason Makhachev is fighting Poirier and not Tsarukyan is that Islam pushed to fight at least 3 times a year and wanted to fight in June at the latest (as he couldn't sooner due to the ramadan). June was obviously a way too soon for the winner of Oliveira/Tsarukyan (or for Gaethje/Holloway), so the idea is for Islam to fight Dustin now and (shall he win) Tsarukyan later. He confirmed that in one of his interviews around the time of the UFC 301.

Like him or not, I respect Islam for wanting to fight so often. He realises he won't be in his prime forever so doesn't want to be sitting idle for a year or so, like some other champs. This is the proper way of building a legacy, and making big money in the process.

[TopTort777]

Anyone remember how Khabib talked about fighters peak form at the age of 32-33? Khabib retired at 32. Makhachev is 32 now. Theoretically, Khabib can influence on Makhachevs decision to retire. We can speculate a little about since we are waiting for a fight. Fight Poirier, then Tsarukyan. And who is left among top lightweight unbeaten? Gamrot? Chandler? Dont believe they would be a threat for him, but he can win one of them and retire. I dont think that Islam is going to fight for more than a year. Two years, that would be 6 according to default contract rules. There are no 6 contenders among lightweight division who would be a real danger for him.

[tokeweed]

Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

Yeah the bookies know that a lot of folks would be betting on Makhachev as he's undefeated, he's the best 155'er after Khabib and that these Dagestani bros are solid.  So they had to open the market in such a way that there's no value on Makhachev and to bet on him will be -EV.  But in doing so, they're giving some value to Poirier.  But could Poirier really stand a chance vs Makhachev?  EV wise it's prolly worth a bet starting at 7.00.  Dunno tho...

Here's the countdown vid and Embedded.

UFC 302:  Countdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DtUBecwVjk

UFC 302:  Embedded Episode 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAz6LLtXO1w

[pawel7777]

Anyone remember how Khabib talked about fighters peak form at the age of 32-33? Khabib retired at 32. Makhachev is 32 now. Theoretically, Khabib can influence on Makhachevs decision to retire. We can speculate a little about since we are waiting for a fight.(...)

Don't forget that Khabib retired for family reasons, not because of old age or a decline in performance. He even stated in some interviews ~1 year after his last fight that he could return and compete at the highest level if he wanted to but chose not to.
I don't understand the recent trend of this thread to speculate about retirement of any fighter whose age starts with "3".

(...) And who is left among top lightweight unbeaten? Gamrot? Chandler? Dont believe they would be a threat for him, but he can win one of them and retire. I dont think that Islam is going to fight for more than a year. Two years, that would be 6 according to default contract rules. There are no 6 contenders among lightweight division who would be a real danger for him.

After Poirier and Tsarukyan he could face Holloway and Gamrot, provided they don't lose any fight before that happens. I'm quite biased, as Gamrot is my compatriot, but in terms of the ground game, he could really be a challenge to Islam. Mateusz has been successfully training and competing in wrestling since his childhood years, he is also a jiu-jitsu black belt and has proven his skills by winning multiple ADCC medals (incl. 2 gold ones) in submission wrestling.
Other than the 4 mentioned, he could search for opponents in other weight classes. If Topuria doesn't disappoint in his next fights, we could see a super fight against himself and Islam (in the lightweight obviously) and Islam already hinted in the past that he wanted to face Leon for the welterweight belt.
And of course, it's highly probable that within 1 or 2 years new names will emerge as they always do. Maybe Saint-Denis will learn his lesson and resume his climb to the top (he's still quite young).

(...) EV wise it's prolly worth a bet starting at 7.00.  Dunno tho...

Agree. I'm not writing Poirier off in that fight and see some scenarios when he could win, but x5.0 is not quite good enough. At least not for me.

[Pumared]

I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

Tsarukyan is very young and won't have much to present. Poirier will do better, bring in more views and sell the fight much better. Tsarukyan fighting won't have much to see, he needs more to prove himself.

[TopTort777]

I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

Tsarukyan is very young and won't have much to present. Poirier will do better, bring in more views and sell the fight much better. Tsarukyan fighting won't have much to see, he needs more to prove himself.

Naaah, Tsarukyan isnt that young. In fact he gave a really close fight to Makhachev in the past and accepted that fight on a short notice. That wont be an easy walk for Makhachev if he faces Tsarukyan.

Anyone remember how Khabib talked about fighters peak form at the age of 32-33? Khabib retired at 32. Makhachev is 32 now. Theoretically, Khabib can influence on Makhachevs decision to retire. We can speculate a little about since we are waiting for a fight.(...)

Don't forget that Khabib retired for family reasons, not because of old age or a decline in performance. He even stated in some interviews ~1 year after his last fight that he could return and compete at the highest level if he wanted to but chose not to.
I don't understand the recent trend of this thread to speculate about retirement of any fighter whose age starts with "3".

Khabib once told that fighters peak form is at 32-33 yo. He has said that after that age, career of a fighter (lightweight) goes down. Yes, he retired for family reasons, but he was at the edge of his peak form. The same did JSP in past. Imho it is correct to retired undefeated while in prime, then turn into Fergusson or a trampoline for other young and hungry fighters, that will use you to build name or record.

After Poirier and Tsarukyan he could face Holloway and Gamrot, provided they don't lose any fight before that happens. I'm quite biased, as Gamrot is my compatriot, but in terms of the ground game, he could really be a challenge to Islam. Mateusz has been successfully training and competing in wrestling since his childhood years, he is also a jiu-jitsu black belt and has proven his skills by winning multiple ADCC medals (incl. 2 gold ones) in submission wrestling.
Other than the 4 mentioned, he could search for opponents in other weight classes. If Topuria doesn't disappoint in his next fights, we could see a super fight against himself and Islam (in the lightweight obviously) and Islam already hinted in the past that he wanted to face Leon for the welterweight belt.
And of course, it's highly probable that within 1 or 2 years new names will emerge as they always do. Maybe Saint-Denis will learn his lesson and resume his climb to the top (he's still quite young).

Imho, with all that weight cutting, I think it will be smart for Makhachev to face Edwards, and not cut to fight Topuria. Gamrot might be a good challenge, but would that JJ and wrestling skills help, if Makhachev evaded everything Oliveira tried on him?

[pawel7777]

Khabib once told that fighters peak form is at 32-33 yo. He has said that after that age, career of a fighter (lightweight) goes down. Yes, he retired for family reasons, but he was at the edge of his peak form. The same did JSP in past. Imho it is correct to retired undefeated while in prime, then turn into Fergusson or a trampoline for other young and hungry fighters, that will use you to build name or record.

I think I vaguely remember Khabib saying that, but it's not he's some sort of oracle that can't be wrong. So as much as it's true that males' physical peak (on average) falls around late 20s/early 30s, it's possible you could compensate a slight decline in testosterone/stamine etc with fighting experience, improved technique and alike. That's why it's not uncommon to see fighters (in various martial arts) in their late 30s or even early 40s to reaching for titles.
And there's some room between Khabib and Tony Ferguson. I don't think there's much value in overly focussing on retiring undefeated. In fact, there could be an element of cowardice to it, i.e. running away from a challenge, e.g. something people accuse Jon Jones of for avoiding a fight with Tom Aspinall.
Islam losing his "0" early on was probably a good thing for him. That's one less thing for him to worry about and can afford himself to take more risks etc.

Imho, with all that weight cutting, I think it will be smart for Makhachev to face Edwards, and not cut to fight Topuria. Gamrot might be a good challenge, but would that JJ and wrestling skills help, if Makhachev evaded everything Oliveira tried on him?

Yeah, there's no way Makhachev could cut down to featherweight, I was thinking more about Topuria moving up just for that fight. Although if google tells the truth, he's much shorter than an average lightweight guys, so may not be very keen on doing that.
As for Gamrot, he's much different than Oliveira when it comes to the ground game. Oliveira is pure JJ, while Gamrot is a wrestler who added JJ elements to his game.
I'd really like to see Gamrot Vs Oliveira, which makes perfect sense, but apparently Oliveira is hunting for an easier fight with Colby, as it would mean more money, plus, he wouldn't have to cut down so much, which is something he really struggles with.

[Pumared]

I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

Tsarukyan is very young and won't have much to present. Poirier will do better, bring in more views and sell the fight much better. Tsarukyan fighting won't have much to see, he needs more to prove himself.

Naaah, Tsarukyan isnt that young. In fact he gave a really close fight to Makhachev in the past and accepted that fight on a short notice. That wont be an easy walk for Makhachev if he faces Tsarukyan.

Yes, but this fight wouldn't be as good as the one that has been set up. I believe that for the general public it wouldn't be interesting, it would be like a top 15 fight against the top 1 is interesting but it doesn't make much sense with other better fighters.

[TopTort777]

I am actually surprised to see, that many fighters in their interview say that it wont be an easy fight for Makhachev, either Poirier will knock Makhachev out. Is this because they are friends (or better say sparing partners or in good relationships) with Poirier and want to cheer him. Because sometimes fighters get really offended when fighters they know say they are going to lose. When Khabib fought him, people were more or less expecting Khabib to win. This times mostly bookies cheer for Islam, when fighters see Poirier to win.

[tokeweed]

^  Maybe than and even if they're his friend, Poirier is a vet who's made a name for himself in the UFC...  They're just giving him the respect that's due to him.  And it's prolly the most unpopular thing to do rn.  I mean this is a huge fight for the guy.  

Here's jeremypwr's Multi Master.

UFC 302:  Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5498047.0

Islam Makhachev
Sean Strickland
Kevin Holland
Jailton Almeida
Elizeu Zaleski
Roman Kopylov
Grant Dawson
Phil Rowe
Alex Morono
Bassil Hafez
Ailin Perez
Andre Lima

UFC 302:  Embedded Episode 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJh3hi6N3VA

UFC 302:  Embedded Episode 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqU5x6V4Kd0

[pawel7777]

^  Maybe than and even if they're his friend, Poirier is a vet who's made a name for himself in the UFC...  They're just giving him the respect that's due to him.  And it's prolly the most unpopular thing to do rn.  I mean this is a huge fight for the guy.

Exactly, he didn't get to the top of the toughest weight division in the UFC by accident. Poirier might not be a specialist in one area like Islam is in wrestling, but he's a very solid and well-rounded fighter. On top of that he got a huge mental boost after KO'ing Saint Denis in a fight in which he was a massive underdog.
Skills aside, mental advantage should be on Dustin's side, he's on the uplift and has got nothing to lose. He doesn't even have to win for his "stocks" to go up. All he has to do is to survive 5 rounds or just give a good fight and not get totally run over by Islam, to be able to call it a success.

I'd be rooting for Islam though, as I think it's better for the UFC and the overall entertainment if he wins. There's a deficit of long-reigning champions currently, making the sport look a bit random and chaotic.

[Pumared]

I am actually surprised to see, that many fighters in their interview say that it wont be an easy fight for Makhachev, either Poirier will knock Makhachev out. Is this because they are friends (or better say sparing partners or in good relationships) with Poirier and want to cheer him. Because sometimes fighters get really offended when fighters they know say they are going to lose. When Khabib fought him, people were more or less expecting Khabib to win. This times mostly bookies cheer for Islam, when fighters see Poirier to win.

This expectation is justified because there are great chances, and many are rooting for him because in a certain way Poirier is expected to lose, so rooting for him makes sense for everyone who is against the current champion, among other reasons.

[TopTort777]

Not a single word about Strickland vs Costa fight What do you think about it? Could Strickland survive power of Costas and secret juice? Is Costa able to crack Philadelphia defence of Strickland? Will black belt in JJ help Costa (did he ever even used his skills or only rely on his strength all the time?). If with main event it is somehow clear, again Dagestani guy will choke his opponent, then I dont know what to expect from Costa and Strickland.

[CryptoBuds]

Not a single word about Strickland vs Costa fight What do you think about it? Could Strickland survive power of Costas and secret juice? Is Costa able to crack Philadelphia defence of Strickland? Will black belt in JJ help Costa (did he ever even used his skills or only rely on his strength all the time?). If with main event it is somehow clear, again Dagestani guy will choke his opponent, then I dont know what to expect from Costa and Strickland.

Well, both of them are crazy. Maybe Sean Strickland is a little bit more. I actually think Sean Strickland is almost always a 50-50 choice. You never know what he is going to do. Costa is obviously going to rely on his strength a lot more than his techniques.



About the main event, it is not going to be as easy. Remember in the fight between Khabib and Dustin Poirier, he actually got hold of Khabib really well. But Khabib had the techniques to actually get out of such a strong choke hold. But if something like that happens in this fight, I doubt that Islam has that same level of technique.

[tokeweed]

^  Maybe than and even if they're his friend, Poirier is a vet who's made a name for himself in the UFC...  They're just giving him the respect that's due to him.  And it's prolly the most unpopular thing to do rn.  I mean this is a huge fight for the guy.

Exactly, he didn't get to the top of the toughest weight division in the UFC by accident. Poirier might not be a specialist in one area like Islam is in wrestling, but he's a very solid and well-rounded fighter. On top of that he got a huge mental boost after KO'ing Saint Denis in a fight in which he was a massive underdog.
Skills aside, mental advantage should be on Dustin's side, he's on the uplift and has got nothing to lose. He doesn't even have to win for his "stocks" to go up. All he has to do is to survive 5 rounds or just give a good fight and not get totally run over by Islam, to be able to call it a success.

I'd be rooting for Islam though, as I think it's better for the UFC and the overall entertainment if he wins. There's a deficit of long-reigning champions currently, making the sport look a bit random and chaotic.

Yeah would love to see Poirier win but from a betting perspective, we'd def just be burning money.  I'd rather drop a little something on a sketchy parlay than be straight on Poirier at the current line.  Dawson - Jailton Almeida - Makhachev at even money could be good.  But sketchy with Almeida possibly being the pie shtter.  Lol.  Another sketchier one is Morono - Holland - Strickland with two pie shtters in Morono and Holland.  

Anyway...  Some vids to watch.

UFC 302:  Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBlEgmvMI6U

UFC 302:  Embedded Episode 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfnf3S7JyVA