🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[TopTort777]

This is actually quite real. With long legs and hands, it is easier to catch and control them for a grappler. But the main question is - will Vera really use his skills against O'Malley ? When was the last time Vera submitted anybody? Even though the odds on Vera ara juicy, O'Malley is going to finish him. I believe that since they met first time, Sugar has gained more, while Vera stayed at the same level. Anyway, Sugars first title defence, lets see how he copes with stress.

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[fuguebtc]

This is actually quite real. With long legs and hands, it is easier to catch and control them for a grappler. But the main question is - will Vera really use his skills against O'Malley ? When was the last time Vera submitted anybody? Even though the odds on Vera ara juicy, O'Malley is going to finish him. I believe that since they met first time, Sugar has gained more, while Vera stayed at the same level. Anyway, Sugars first title defence, lets see how he copes with stress.

I agree with @pawel7777 that the UFC 300 is going to be more interesting compared to the UFC 299. And especially the Justin Gaethje versus Max Holloway is definitely a very anticipated match.

One thing I will say that the main event of both UFC 299 and UFC 300 looks really good.

I think Sean O'Malley is going to find it hard in this fight. I'm not saying he will not be able to win. But his defense will have to be solid. I have not seen Vera use his wrestling skill or grappling skill whatever you call it too much in recent times. But I know he is capable of using those & he has black belt in BJJ.


Sean O'Malley's BJJ contest he presented he can grapple
Vera has joined Art of Jiu-Jitsu (AOJ) specifically to sharpen his grappling skills.

[tokeweed]

This is actually quite real. With long legs and hands, it is easier to catch and control them for a grappler. But the main question is - will Vera really use his skills against O'Malley ? When was the last time Vera submitted anybody? Even though the odds on Vera ara juicy, O'Malley is going to finish him. I believe that since they met first time, Sugar has gained more, while Vera stayed at the same level. Anyway, Sugars first title defence, lets see how he copes with stress.

With the event being a PPV event and not a smaller one in the Apex, the cage would be bigger...  Which means O'Malley would have more space to move around to avoid any attempts at grappling from Vera.  And he has the foot work to do so just like he did for the most part vs Sterling.

Now...  Vera is a slow starter.  It would be somewhat safe to assume that O'Malley wins at least a couple rounds out of the first three.  So that in itself justifies where the line is at rn.  But if any of you really do want to fade O'Malley then better do it thru live betting after R2.  That way you avoid the possbility of Vera getting finished by O'Malley early and you get a way better line with Vera.  And Vera usually heats up and starts getting more active at R3 anyway, so might as well.  

Some vids...  Enjoy.

UFC 299:  Embedded Episode 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-0C5WdtGmM

UFC Free Fight:  Maddalena vs Ramazan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4f6Q9-rO0Q

UFC Free Fight:  Burns vs Maia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIA1J3RKt7U

UFC Free Fight:  Poirier vs Hooker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xwfz2FSEk3E

UFC Free Fight:  Saint Denis vs Frevola
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0L9QCHP9XRo

UFC Free Fight:  O'Malley vs Vera 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDTIfoffUFU

UFC Free Fight:  O'Malley vs Sterling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhLam0jGFCc

And here's jeremypwr's Multi Master.

UFC 299:  Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5487551.0

[TopTort777]

I calculate it more simplier - with time O’Malley had time to improve his ground game, but for Vera this time wasnt much of an advantage. His striking barely improved. Why? Because he knocked people out in past and keep doing it, and for striking, there isnt so much to learn. We saw how O’Malley dodged or countered every take down attempt from Aljo. Vera wont have much to do if he would plan to submit him. Sugar can run away, throw jabs and get points.

[Hanadawa]

I calculate it more simplier - with time O’Malley had time to improve his ground game, but for Vera this time wasnt much of an advantage. His striking barely improved. Why? Because he knocked people out in past and keep doing it, and for striking, there isnt so much to learn. We saw how O’Malley dodged or countered every take down attempt from Aljo. Vera wont have much to do if he would plan to submit him. Sugar can run away, throw jabs and get points.

I think Vera's strategy is still the same, take the match to a dogfight for 25 minutes and I admit Vera is a knockout artist and that could give her the win. Vera also has a good ground game although she almost never uses and improves it. O'malley is also a standing fighter but he has improved his ground game in anticipation of Vera's takedown. I think both fighters still have a chance to win. The bookie still favors O'malley of course. But I think this fight is whoever can apply the game plan to the fight will be the winner.

[pawel7777]

Sean O'Malley's BJJ contest he presented he can grapple (...)

Thanks for sharing. Yeah, I've seen some footage of O'Malley's grappling training and he's not a novice.
We like to assume that if someone is great in striking, then they must suck on the ground, but the times you could get to the top of UFC ranks by being good only on one level are long gone. O'Malley wouldn't be so dominant in his stand-up game if he didn't have high confidence in his takedown defence and ground game.

As for the odds, I think Almeida could be a good bet, currently, he's only a slight favourite against Blaydes but I'd give him at least 70% chances.
Looks like bookies don't value Poirier too high with x2.85 odds. In my estimation Saint-Denis is a favourite, but only a slight one. Benoit looked impressive in his last fights but hasn't yet fought any top names.

[TopTort777]

What about Petr Yan vs Song Yadong fight? Yan is in tricky situation. Former. Champion is now on a series of 3 straight losses. Yadong won last two fight. If Yan losses, he would either get released (which would be both fair and strange, as he used to be one of the best in 135) or he will slowly turn into Tony Ferguson  Bookies see Yan as a slight favorite, but a very shaky favorite.

[pawel7777]

What about Petr Yan vs Song Yadong fight? Yan is in tricky situation. Former. Champion is now on a series of 3 straight losses. Yadong won last two fight. If Yan losses, he would either get released (which would be both fair and strange, as he used to be one of the best in 135) or he will slowly turn into Tony Ferguson  Bookies see Yan as a slight favorite, but a very shaky favorite.

Looking at the records only can give a misleading picture. Yan might have lost 3 in a row, but they were all by decisions, two of which were split decisions, both to a champion (Sterling) and a future champion (O'Malley). Even O'Malley didn't really feel victorious at that fight.
Petr has an impressive number of winning against big-names and is still in his prime age-wise. It's true that he's desperate to win if he wants to stay at the top and try to get the belt back. So it's all a question of whether he's mentally in the right place or if he'll get desperate and chaotic.
Song only fought one top name, Sandhagen, and lost that fight (he did look quite good in it though). He's pretty aggressive and has a decent set of skills, so he's not without a chance.
The odds are quite even, with Yan being a slight favourite, which I think is fair.

[TopTort777]

I know, I know that this is just on the paper and we can not judge fighter by that, but still, not many fighters are kept in UFC when they are in a series of losses. Petr isnt much of a media guy. As as fighters - zero questions. As a fights salesman - I would say that he is not in the top. UFC is a business on the first place, and a fighting promotion on the second. They release some nice fighters for strange reason. Anyway, what I am trying to say, that we should not be surprised if we wont see Yan anymore if he losses this weekend.

[tokeweed]

What about Petr Yan vs Song Yadong fight? Yan is in tricky situation. Former. Champion is now on a series of 3 straight losses. Yadong won last two fight. If Yan losses, he would either get released (which would be both fair and strange, as he used to be one of the best in 135) or he will slowly turn into Tony Ferguson   Bookies see Yan as a slight favorite, but a very shaky favorite.

Mmmmm...  I think Yan's losses were not something that should bring his stock down by a whole lot.  A loss vs Merab Dvalishvili...  Who wouldn't lose vs Dvalishvili.  A couple of split decision losses vs O'Malley and Sterling ain't bad at all with the O'Malley one as somewhat a robbery imho.

With Song Yadong, his wins are good but they were not really against the top tier fighters except for the Simon win.  So dunno...  I kinda agree with where the lines are at.  But would I bet for either of these guys?  Not at the current line.

UFC 299:  Embedded Episode 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8_SdGRM7Fg

[TopTort777]

But agree that 3 losses in a row would not look great in a former champions record. And he wasnt “that huge” or real champion after all. How he got that belt? Vacanted belt from Aldo whk was not on his prime anymore? The fight would be different if they met in 2013. And if he would met Cejudo, who would not retire and vacated belt? I am just saying that Yans fame is a bit overpumped. For me he isnt so damn greatest fighters we talk honestly.

[jakelyson]

Thanks for sharing. Yeah, I've seen some footage of O'Malley's grappling training and he's not a novice.
We like to assume that if someone is great in striking, then they must suck on the ground, but the times you could get to the top of UFC ranks by being good only on one level are long gone. O'Malley wouldn't be so dominant in his stand-up game if he didn't have high confidence in his takedown defence and ground game.

I didn't know that Sean O'Malley has a kind of knowledge with BBJ, but it is not at the level of the likes of Charles Oliveira, or the Dagestan fighters but it is still impressive I really think he is hiding this and will be using this when the time comes but against Chito Vera I really like Chito but with O'Malley getting a rear naked choke on Chito that will be dangerous for Vera here are some latest video training for Suga Sean O'Malley.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m4b9l7LQ3Q

As for the odds, I think Almeida could be a good bet, currently, he's only a slight favourite against Blaydes but I'd give him at least 70% chances.
Looks like bookies don't value Poirier too high with x2.85 odds. In my estimation Saint-Denis is a favourite, but only a slight one. Benoit looked impressive in his last fights but hasn't yet fought any top names.

Curtis Blaydes VS Jailton Almeida could be a great fight and you are right that Jailton Almeida will be a dangerous opponent for Blaydes, for sure that wrestling will be an interesting counter for Blaydes, and while I think Almeida will be on an advantage in this fight but if Blayes could have increased his ground game that will be a fun thing to watch for this fight.

I think I may go with Jailton Almeida and the fight of Tom Aspinall VS Jailton Almeida will be more interesting than making a rematch against Curtis Blaydes.

[tokeweed]

^  I'm back and forth on that one...  I'm was leaning Blaydes at first glance but the more I look into it dunno.  Blaydes could get caught in Almeida's guard with something or could back pack behind Blaydes somehow and it's game over.  Blaydes doesn't have the highest of fight IQ's.

Anyway another fun match up is between Kevin Holland and MVP.  I think there are some hardcore Bellator fans in here who would love it.  That's another one I'm back and forth with.

Some vids...

UFC 299:  Embedded Episode 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j17vqtIGWmQ

UFC 299:  Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRXkQKVjvNc

UFC 299:  Live Weigh In Show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpxLS16kRYU

The pre fight press conference should be hilarious.

[cabron]

^  I'm back and forth on that one...  I'm was leaning Blaydes at first glance but the more I look into it dunno.  Blaydes could get caught in Almeida's guard with something or could back pack behind Blaydes somehow and it's game over.  Blaydes doesn't have the highest of fight IQ's.

Almeida moves like he isn't a heavyweight but I'm not sure also whether he can submit Blaydes. He wasn't able to knock Lewis last year. Either this will be Almeida by KO or UD which Almeida will also exhaust his cardio in 3 rounds.

Chito is the underdog but I think he still will be successful chasing Sean. He is disciplined and as long as he can avoid getting hit by the head from Sean's strikes, he will defeat Sean again. In their first fight, even before the kick that rocked Sean's leg, he wasn't able to execute well against Chito.

[pawel7777]

Almeida moves like he isn't a heavyweight but I'm not sure also whether he can submit Blaydes. He wasn't able to knock Lewis last year. Either this will be Almeida by KO or UD which Almeida will also exhaust his cardio in 3 rounds.

He wasn't able to finish Lewis in his last fight, but he completely neutralised him, Lewis wasn't able to do anything in that fight and was getting really frustrated. I expect the same scenario could happen to Blaydes. Almeida doesn't have to finish him to win. If he dominates, hell get the decission.

Chito is the underdog but I think he still will be successful chasing Sean. He is disciplined and as long as he can avoid getting hit by the head from Sean's strikes, he will defeat Sean again. In their first fight, even before the kick that rocked Sean's leg, he wasn't able to execute well against Chito.

I was surprised to learn that Chito has never been submitted or KO'ed in his career. All his losses were by decisions. So, statistically, the most likely scenario seems to be the fight going to distance and O'Malley winning by decision. I just can't imagine Vera finishing Sean, but I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

I think I may go with Jailton Almeida and the fight of Tom Aspinall VS Jailton Almeida will be more interesting than making a rematch against Curtis Blaydes.

Jailton Vs Tom would be a decent fight, Almeida could finally test Tom's ground game.
Although there were some rumours going around that Brock Lesnar was interested in returning to UFC to fight Tom, but that's probably not true.

[TopTort777]

Pay some attention to Michael Page vs Kevin Holland fight. Some facts about Page. He is from a martial arts family. His father was a successful kickboxer. He has 7 brothers who are kickboxers also (lol), he has won nearly everything in karate and kickboxing. He was on special notice in Bellator (basically Scott Coker thought that Page is his golden star and make he wont face many grapplers/bjj on his career. Just like O’Malley in UFC )

Now he is having a debut fight in UFC and already against top12. Page likes to taunt his opponents, often with low hands. He relies on his speed, reaction and unseen punch much. But with hands low. If Holland uses his fighting IQ, he would win easily, or will be beaten and humiliated.

[Hanadawa]

What about Petr Yan vs Song Yadong fight? Yan is in tricky situation. Former. Champion is now on a series of 3 straight losses. Yadong won last two fight. If Yan losses, he would either get released (which would be both fair and strange, as he used to be one of the best in 135) or he will slowly turn into Tony Ferguson  Bookies see Yan as a slight favorite, but a very shaky favorite.

But Petr Yan's 3 defeats are not defeats by complete dominance or TKO. Yan didn't really lose those 3 fights. This is not the same as Ferguson who lost 7 times in a row and among them he lost by domination and knockout. Song Yadong is an incredible fighter of the new era but I still favor Petr Yan to win that fight. Maybe Song will try to learn Yan's weaknesses from his 3 defeats but I think it will be very difficult to implement them. Yan is one of the best boxers in the UFC and Song also has good striking. Yan usually starts the fight with a slow start and Song usually plays quite aggressively. I think if this fight goes under 2 rounds it will be Song's win. But if you go past 2 rounds, Yan will be very dangerous.

[Google+]

Pay some attention to Michael Page vs Kevin Holland fight. Some facts about Page. He is from a martial arts family. His father was a successful kickboxer. He has 7 brothers who are kickboxers also (lol), he has won nearly everything in karate and kickboxing. He was on special notice in Bellator (basically Scott Coker thought that Page is his golden star and make he wont face many grapplers/bjj on his career. Just like O’Malley in UFC )

Now he is having a debut fight in UFC and already against top12. Page likes to taunt his opponents, often with low hands. He relies on his speed, reaction and unseen punch much. But with hands low. If Holland uses his fighting IQ, he would win easily, or will be beaten and humiliated.

The UFC is really observant in seeing business opportunities in the sport, after Page spent his contract in the bellator did not wait long for the UFC to immediately give him the opportunity to fight in the octagon, even though the fight will be Page debut in the UFC I think we cannot underestimate Page who does have extraordinary endurance and fighting ability even though he is now 36 years old,  His fighting skills may be quite brutal and this is why the UFC is so keen to bring in and organize his first fight in the UFC, but I think Page will be able to provide an interesting spectacle for us and of course in this case he should keep the heart out for Holland who has more experience in the UFC.

I think in facing Holland later Page will be more dominant in using his legs and jabs to knock Holland down, honestly I never like to see Holland fight especially before the fight he underestimated the opponent he will face, so I really hope that Page will be able to break Holland arrogance in the fight later but without having to break Holland head skull like Page did in Bellator it used to be  , even so, I think Holland will learn from his previous defeat against thompson by fighting more creatively against fighter kickboxing style.

[TopTort777]

Pay some attention to Michael Page vs Kevin Holland fight. Some facts about Page. He is from a martial arts family. His father was a successful kickboxer. He has 7 brothers who are kickboxers also (lol), he has won nearly everything in karate and kickboxing. He was on special notice in Bellator (basically Scott Coker thought that Page is his golden star and make he wont face many grapplers/bjj on his career. Just like O’Malley in UFC )

Now he is having a debut fight in UFC and already against top12. Page likes to taunt his opponents, often with low hands. He relies on his speed, reaction and unseen punch much. But with hands low. If Holland uses his fighting IQ, he would win easily, or will be beaten and humiliated.

The UFC is really observant in seeing business opportunities in the sport, after Page spent his contract in the bellator did not wait long for the UFC to immediately give him the opportunity to fight in the octagon, even though the fight will be Page debut in the UFC I think we cannot underestimate Page who does have extraordinary endurance and fighting ability even though he is now 36 years old,  His fighting skills may be quite brutal and this is why the UFC is so keen to bring in and organize his first fight in the UFC, but I think Page will be able to provide an interesting spectacle for us and of course in this case he should keep the heart out for Holland who has more experience in the UFC.

I think in facing Holland later Page will be more dominant in using his legs and jabs to knock Holland down, honestly I never like to see Holland fight especially before the fight he underestimated the opponent he will face, so I really hope that Page will be able to break Holland arrogance in the fight later but without having to break Holland head skull like Page did in Bellator it used to be  , even so, I think Holland will learn from his previous defeat against thompson by fighting more creatively against fighter kickboxing style.

1. For a fighter to have a debut in UFC at 36 yo, this is already a disadvantage. He is old already for welterweight.
2. Problem of Page - to much self confidence. Come one Page, stick those fists to your chin or you will go to sleep. UFC is not Bellator. We have examples where Bellator or other promotion champions are only "two categories above average" in UFC. Chandler is the best example.
3. On the paper Page is good, but look at his record. Every single average fighter he has beaten, but as soon as he faces a serious opponent, he looses (lost to Lima and a split win later).

Page is a nice addition to UFC, he is fun to watch, specially all those taunting moves and faces. For sure he would help UFC to make sales, but I expect more or less fighters would beat his ass

[jakelyson]

^  I'm back and forth on that one...  I'm was leaning Blaydes at first glance but the more I look into it dunno.  Blaydes could get caught in Almeida's guard with something or could back pack behind Blaydes somehow and it's game over.  Blaydes doesn't have the highest of fight IQ's.

Anyway another fun match up is between Kevin Holland and MVP.  I think there are some hardcore Bellator fans in here who would love it.  That's another one I'm back and forth with.

Some vids...

UFC 299:  Embedded Episode 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j17vqtIGWmQ

UFC 299:  Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRXkQKVjvNc

UFC 299:  Live Weigh In Show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpxLS16kRYU

The pre fight press conference should be hilarious.

That Jailton Almeida VS Curtis Blaydes fight will be one heated fight for sure, and you are right that Curtis Blaydes is not that slick of a fighter everyone knows that if Tom Aspinall didn't get injured he would surely win that fight at that speed and that wrestling will surely get Blaydes deep into the waters, I don't really see Curtis Blayeds being champion while Jailton Almeida might have a chance against Aspinall, but still, Aspinall had many tools in his pocket that he could likely use against Almeida.

While MVP Michael Venom Page is one of the heavy hitters in the welterweight division and for the UFC to let Kevin Holland face such a beast is really a hard welcome for Holland in that division, but I really like Kevin Hollands wrestling if he can get into Venom's back that is while Venom Page could take the safe route by using his reach advantage against Holland and that Knee will be a devastating weapon for him.


We have a Joshua VS Ngannou fight right now and I think I will make some predictions later in the Boxing community thread we also got a Zhilei Zhang VS Joseph Parker rematch and this time it will be the real deal for sure, and Rey Vargas fight and this could be his win this time.

EDIT:

Jailton Vs Tom would be a decent fight, Almeida could finally test Tom's ground game.
Although there were some rumours going around that Brock Lesnar was interested in returning to UFC to fight Tom, but that's probably not true.

A decent fight indeed, that would surely test Jailton Almeida's offensive and defensive wrestling and grapple for sure if what level he is at, because I don't see him scramble that much in the ground and Tom Aspinall is a better indicator to see that, while Brock Lesnar rumors might not be true, and if he returns I think he can not win a fight anymore.