2026 PBA Governor's Cup

[Questat]

Congrats @bisdak40, your bet won.
It did look like a close one for a while, but in the 4th quarter SMB made sure they would take the win. They ended up winning by 12 points, though those who bet minutes before the game would have won if they backed Phoenix to cover the handicap.

That was the last game of SMB, and they might be facing Meralco or Ginebra next. But whoever they face, I still think they are a very dangerous team now that they have an import who really complements how Fajardo plays. Even though they are in a twice-to-beat disadvantage, I still think they can make it.

[Fredomago]

Congrats @bisdak40, your bet won.
It did look like a close one for a while, but in the 4th quarter SMB made sure they would take the win. They ended up winning by 12 points, though those who bet minutes before the game would have won if they backed Phoenix to cover the handicap.

That was the last game of SMB, and they might be facing Meralco or Ginebra next. But whoever they face, I still think they are a very dangerous team now that they have an import who really complements how Fajardo plays. Even though they are in a twice-to-beat disadvantage, I still think they can make it.

Indeed, Boatwright understand well how to maximize JMF as he's familiar with how SMB play their system, even they are in a twice to beat disadvantage the chance of beating whoever will be their next opponent is still possible, they've got enough core and role players who can help and with Boatwright reinforcing them and providing the help that they need, I also think that there's still possibility that they may push this and be able to move forward to continue their chase to win another title.

[bisdak40]

For tonight, i'm placing a bet for the Beermen against Phoenix. To be honest this is a risky bet since both SMB and Phoenix are unpredictable but since i'm a fan of the Beermen, i'm rooting for them to win and cover the spread tonight.

What time did you place your bet? Because currently, I’m checking and SMB is already at -22.5. Does that mean Phoenix is playing without an import?

Honestly, that line is quite high. But judging from the current movement, I think SMB covering that -6 should be easy now. That’s a huge difference from the current line.
I guess I can already say congratulations to you in advance then, unless something really strange happens in the game.

Sorry for the late reply, i did placed that bet 6 hours before the game, maybe that time there is no report yet that Jason Perkins and Ricci Rivero won't suit up. That 22.5 is huge, i could have taken that one if that was offered when i placed my bet as SMB is not kind of a team that usually blows out opponent with a big margin. In that game Phoenix even took the lead after the end of the 1st quarter and fortunately for the Beermen, they came back in the second quarter and grabbed the lead but still it was a close game until the end.

edit:
For today’s game, I’m betting on the Gin Kings, as TNT may struggle defensively, especially in the endgame when Bol Bol often runs out of gas.

[mirakal]

This looks like another win for Ginebra. They seem to have turned into a 3-point shooting team now.

Though they had a high shooting percentage in the first half, the total score for both teams is still low. I don’t know the total line for this game, but I think the second half could be different. For TNT, if Bol Bol continues not sharing the ball, then the same pattern will continue and it could still result in a loss. So far, Bol has 13 points on 5-of-3 shooting, and we can expect him to shoot more in the second half.

But like we usually see, he might get gassed out again in the 4th quarter. Or maybe this game will be different since it is a non-bearing game anyway. Both teams are already qualified, so maybe this is more about whom they will play with in the playoffs depending on the outcome of the game.

[Sanitough]

But like we usually see, he might get gassed out again in the 4th quarter. Or maybe this game will be different since it is a non-bearing game anyway. Both teams are already qualified, so maybe this is more about whom they will play with in the playoffs depending on the outcome of the game.

We will see. He is still doing his usual thing, already has 29 points now and TNT is still trailing in the 3rd quarter.
That means he is really playing well in the 3rd, but his teammates are not contributing enough. So here we are again, same situation as before.
He is carrying too much load early, and by the time the 4th quarter comes, he might already be tired. Meanwhile, Brownlee will still be fresh enough to make plays and close the game.

So we will probably see the same story again unless TNT finds a way to get others involved.

[mirakal]

So we will probably see the same story again unless TNT finds a way to get others involved.

You said it right. As usual, TNT struggled with their shooting, especially from the outside in the 4th quarter.
They made it close, even cut the lead to around 2 points, but in the end Ginebra still won and covered the spread. Bol’s outside shooting was bad, but he kept trying, and TNT was not really getting much from their outside shots either.

That is what I don’t understand. Why are they so focused on outside shooting when they can attack the basket and let the big guy fight for offensive rebounds? They had the size advantage, but they did not use it the right way when it mattered. So with this result, we will be seeing Ginebra vs Phoenix, which should be easy for Ginebra, while TNT will be facing NLEX.

[Fredomago]

So we will probably see the same story again unless TNT finds a way to get others involved.

You said it right. As usual, TNT struggled with their shooting, especially from the outside in the 4th quarter.
They made it close, even cut the lead to around 2 points, but in the end Ginebra still won and covered the spread. Bol’s outside shooting was bad, but he kept trying, and TNT was not really getting much from their outside shots either.

And it was funny because Bol is complaining  with the officials after that game, they have the height and they've got those players who can score inside but they choose to gamble outside relying with their shooters, unfornately it's not bringing the results that favorable to them.

That is what I don’t understand. Why are they so focused on outside shooting when they can attack the basket and let the big guy fight for offensive rebounds? They had the size advantage, but they did not use it the right way when it mattered. So with this result, we will be seeing Ginebra vs Phoenix, which should be easy for Ginebra, while TNT will be facing NLEX.

Possible also kabayan that NLEX may end losing it with their mother company as in stats they are good but once TNT find their rhythm, it would be tough for NLEX to handle, like what I'm always saying adjustments for Bol is what TNT needs, he should play as a two way player who can dominate on both offense and defense, still have a good chance to chase for the title.

[Russlenat]

The playoffs will start this Wednesday.

TNT vs NLEX
Magnolia vs Meralco

SMB vs ROS
Phoenix vs Ginebra

My guess for the teams that will advance to the semifinals are NLEX, Meralco, SMB, and Ginebra.

NLEX has a good chance against TNT, especially if TNT will continue to rely too much on Bol and struggle with their outside shooting. Meralco also looks more stable than Magnolia, so I think they can take care of that matchup.

SMB vs ROS might be interesting, but I still like SMB here because they are looking dangerous now with their new import and Fajardo playing together. And for Phoenix vs Ginebra, I think Ginebra has the easier path. Phoenix is short-handed and I don’t see them matching Ginebra’s depth and experience.

[tech30338]

So we will probably see the same story again unless TNT finds a way to get others involved.

You said it right. As usual, TNT struggled with their shooting, especially from the outside in the 4th quarter.
They made it close, even cut the lead to around 2 points, but in the end Ginebra still won and covered the spread. Bol’s outside shooting was bad, but he kept trying, and TNT was not really getting much from their outside shots either.

That is what I don’t understand. Why are they so focused on outside shooting when they can attack the basket and let the big guy fight for offensive rebounds? They had the size advantage, but they did not use it the right way when it mattered. So with this result, we will be seeing Ginebra vs Phoenix, which should be easy for Ginebra, while TNT will be facing NLEX.

Could it be that TNT on purposely lose the game so that they could face NLEX because they have a chance at winning against that team? if you would think its a good idea they are both sister team, just thinking if they win against NLEX they will face Meralco, and winner of SMB and Gins, this is just a theory, but TNT would have a hard time winning with this top seeded NLEX in reality, who would you bet to be in the finals match?
I'm thinking SMB will have high chance to be again in the finals Junmar is there, so their percentage of winning again is bigger.