🏈🏈 The Essential NFL Thread 🏈🏈 - new poll every week

[nutildah]

^ I think that's right NO by 6.5.  The family is still too loud, maybe if I put the game on they'll pipe down.

@nutildah, lol about the newbie, and coffee is a great idea.  I'm about to fall into a food coma.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Ah I see that's your alt. I was gonna say, hey you the newbie around here vato but then I checked your profile and now its all good.

[bbc.reporter]

@nutildah. This game is unexpectedly competitive. What was the spread? I reckon it was Saints -6.5 for the full game and -3 for the 1st half?

Shifted down to -7 moments before the game started. I don't actually look at halves, but its looking pretty likely that the Saints are going to cover both halves at this point. Looks like it will only be downhill for the Falcons from here.

I gave them a chance until the 3rd turnover in the 2nd half hehehe.

[nutildah]

Wow, Atlanta was really working hard to keep this one alive with 2 (really it was 3 but one was recalled by a penalty) onside kick recoveries late in the 4th quarter. They knocked the Saints lead down to 8... But their offensive line was just sucking. 4 sacks on Ryan, seemed like more. And with that NO is the first division champion.

[Gyfts]

Wonder what the odds were of the Falcons getting two onside kicks successfully in one game. Bad penalty aside, the Falcons literally got more onside kicks successfully than the entire NFL combined thus far. Call it a fluke if you want, but the kicking team's players should have a running start. Having a sub five percent success rate with onside kicks doesn't make the game exciting at all. Bump it up to ~10 percent which is ideal. Not that I expected Matt Ryan to actually do something with the ball with the successful onside kick, they still make the games existing.

On that note, FIRE JASON GARRETT. Betting on the Cowboys when they play winning teams is taking your money and setting it on fire. Garrett has had every opportunity to in the nine seasons he's been with the Cowboys to step it up and the results he's given are TWO playoffs wins and ZERO superbowls. Absolutely pathetic and to think Jason Witten came back to the team just for dysfunctional coaching. The talent's there, the coaching is not.

[tyKiwanuka]

Two bets for me on Sunday. Looking very forward to Ravens - 49ers, but odds are fair imo, so no prematch bet. SNF and MNF could get interesting too, rest of the games is a bit meh.

First bet I like is the Titans ML over the Colts at around 2,15. Titans are on a very nice run as of lately, beating the Chiefs at home and then easily disposing of the Jaguars afterwards. Tannethrill is putting up solid numbers since he took over from Mariota, while Henry seems unstoppable right now. Defensively they struggle a bit, but the Colts offense is nothing to lose sleep over. Brissett wasn't really impressive since returning from injury and playing with that knee brace seems to bother him more than one might think. Colts will miss TY Hilton with a calf injury on Sunday and Ebron was placed on IR on Monday, thats two reliable targets missing for Brissett.
The Titans weren't very successfull when travelling to Indianapolis in the last years, winning only once in the last ten years. This is putting me off a bit, but all in all I think the Titans are more healthy, the better football team right now and way more confident. In a divisional battle like this with huge playoff implications anything can happen though, so lets see.

Second bet is the Chiefs HC -12,5 at around 2,30 over the Raiders. I wrote about the poor away record from the Raiders last week. They are just a different team when travelling. But main reason for that pick is the weather. Forecasts say that temperatures will be around 3°C/37°F on Sunday afternoon in Kansas City and that is something that Carr doesn't like and can't seem to deal with.



Source: https://twitter.com/wingoz/status/1199328844815249411

Last years game at Arrowhead was played on December 30th with temperatures being around 7°C/45°F and Mahomes and the Chiefs whiped the floor with the Raiders 35-3, while Carr threw for 185 yards for 0 TD and 2 INT. The Raiders under Carr often played at Arrowhead in December the last years with similar temperatures and Carr always put up disappointing numbers, losing all those games: 15-26 / 13-21 / 17-23 / 13-31 - and these games were all with Alex Smith playing QB for KC, now they have Mahomes.
On top of that, KC is coming off a bye-week and had more time to prepare. While this is probably not a stat, that backs up some HC-bet, Andy Reid has a remarkable 17-3 SU record when coming off a bye-week with his teams.

Jets ML at Bengals I like as well. Only thing distracting me is the fact that the Bengals have a one win cushion for first draft pick now and they surely want to get at least one W, to not embarass themselves completely after tanking the whole season thus far. They still play the Dolphins and 2x Browns though, so they might save their energy for one of those games.

[wheelz1200]

The pick of the week for me is green bay over the giants -6
5.  Giants have one of the worst LB/DB situations.  Aaron Rodgers is going to have a field day with them.  I would go on to think that green bay will win 34-17.  Green bay needs this win bad and the giants have nothing to play for, this one will get ugly fast

[South Park]

On that note, FIRE JASON GARRETT. Betting on the Cowboys when they play winning teams is taking your money and setting it on fire. Garrett has had every opportunity to in the nine seasons he's been with the Cowboys to step it up and the results he's given are TWO playoffs wins and ZERO superbowls. Absolutely pathetic and to think Jason Witten came back to the team just for dysfunctional coaching. The talent's there, the coaching is not.

Unless Jason Garret gets to the Super Bowl you can be sure he will be out at the end of the season, the problem for Jerry Jones is who will replace him.

At first it may seem like Dallas is a great Head Coach job since we are talking about one of the most popular teams in a good market with a lot of history, but there are several issues.

And Kraft has been crafty enough to just stay out of the way which is tougher than most think as jimmy Jones is a prime example of. Team owners have big ego's and will shoot themselves in the foot rather than admitting mistakes.

1. Jerry Jones. The first big issue is Jerry Jones, as Hueristic states it is difficult for owners to not interfere and the desire of Jerry Jones to be the one to take all the credit for any championships the Cowboys gets will be a problem that we know is not going to be accepted by the elite coaches.

2. No QB security. Dak is there but he still has not signed a long term contract and we know that if you want to win in this league you need a great QB or a good running game and a great defense, and even if they sign Dak the next problem will appear.

3. The salary cap. The Cowboys have 21 millions in cap space but with Dak and Cooper still to sign long term with the team whatever cap space they have is bound to disappear which will leave almost no money for the rest of the positions the team needs to fill.

As you can see the position of Dallas Head Coach is not as attractive as it may seem at first.

[wheelz1200]

On that note, FIRE JASON GARRETT. Betting on the Cowboys when they play winning teams is taking your money and setting it on fire. Garrett has had every opportunity to in the nine seasons he's been with the Cowboys to step it up and the results he's given are TWO playoffs wins and ZERO superbowls. Absolutely pathetic and to think Jason Witten came back to the team just for dysfunctional coaching. The talent's there, the coaching is not.

Unless Jason Garret gets to the Super Bowl you can be sure he will be out at the end of the season, the problem for Jerry Jones is who will replace him.

At first it may seem like Dallas is a great Head Coach job since we are talking about one of the most popular teams in a good market with a lot of history, but there are several issues.

And Kraft has been crafty enough to just stay out of the way which is tougher than most think as jimmy Jones is a prime example of. Team owners have big ego's and will shoot themselves in the foot rather than admitting mistakes.

1. Jerry Jones. The first big issue is Jerry Jones, as Hueristic states it is difficult for owners to not interfere and the desire of Jerry Jones to be the one to take all the credit for any championships the Cowboys gets will be a problem that we know is not going to be accepted by the elite coaches.

2. No QB security. Dak is there but he still has not signed a long term contract and we know that if you want to win in this league you need a great QB or a good running game and a great defense, and even if they sign Dak the next problem will appear.

3. The salary cap. The Cowboys have 21 millions in cap space but with Dak and Cooper still to sign long term with the team whatever cap space they have is bound to disappear which will leave almost no money for the rest of the positions the team needs to fill.

As you can see the position of Dallas Head Coach is not as attractive as it may seem at first.

Garrett is definately gone after this year no doubt he is lame duck right now.  They arent going to ruin Zeke and daks prime ( even though I think dak is average) with Garrett running the show.  In a perfect world cowboys will always be good enough not to fire anyone but not good enough to win anything substantial 

[bbc.reporter]

The pick of the week for me is green bay over the giants -6
5.  Giants have one of the worst LB/DB situations.  Aaron Rodgers is going to have a field day with them.  I would go on to think that green bay will win 34-17.  Green bay needs this win bad and the giants have nothing to play for, this one will get ugly fast

My pick of the week would be the 49ers +6 versus the Ravens. The Ravens are good, might be winners of the AFC conference, however, they might not beat -6 spread versus one of the best teams in the NFC.

[Hueristic]

Just got home and caught up on this thread and all I can say is WOW you guys have made some great posts and points. I'll add some substance tomorrow but I wanted to say.

Happy Thanksgiving all!

Before I crash.

[DireWolfM14]

My pick of the week would be the 49ers +6 versus the Ravens. The Ravens are good, might be winners of the AFC conference, however, they might not beat -6 spread versus one of the best teams in the NFC.

This has to be the best pick of the week for odds gamblers.  There's a good chance the Niners will surprise everyone.  I'm not just saying that as a Niner's fan (well, maybe I am,) but there's no reason to believe they won't at least cover the spread.  They've been strong on the road all year, even on the east coast. 

As you can see the position of Dallas Head Coach is not as attractive as it may seem at first.

Your reason 1 is very much the most significant, and directly affects the ability to remedy the other two.  Jones would try to interfere even if he had Bill Belichick as his coach/personnel manager.   Jones takes it personally.  I have a lot of respect for the man, he's obviously not dumb, and he knows a lot about football.  But I think it's difficult for an owner to step back from hard decisions, and not have them be personal.  The way he tried to will Tony Romo back into action is an example.  It's a commendable trait, to become friends with your employees and treat them like family.  But it ain't the best way to run a football team.

A strong general manager that has no choice but the run the franchise like business is going to take a more clinical approach to personnel decisions. 

[Hueristic]

First bet I like is the Titans ML over the Colts at around 2,15. Titans are on a very nice run as of lately, beating the Chiefs at home and then easily disposing of the Jaguars afterwards. Tannethrill is putting up solid numbers since he took over from Mariota, while Henry seems unstoppable right now. Defensively they struggle a bit, but the Colts offense is nothing to lose sleep over. Brissett wasn't really impressive since returning from injury and playing with that knee brace seems to bother him more than one might think. Colts will miss TY Hilton with a calf injury on Sunday and Ebron was placed on IR on Monday, thats two reliable targets missing for Brissett.
The Titans weren't very successfull when travelling to Indianapolis in the last years, winning only once in the last ten years. This is putting me off a bit, but all in all I think the Titans are more healthy, the better football team right now and way more confident. In a divisional battle like this with huge playoff implications anything can happen though, so lets see.

I completely agree with this.

Second bet is the Chiefs HC -12,5 at around 2,30 over the Raiders. I wrote about the poor away record from the Raiders last week. They are just a different team when travelling. But main reason for that pick is the weather. Forecasts say that temperatures will be around 3°C/37°F on Sunday afternoon in Kansas City and that is something that Carr doesn't like and can't seem to deal with.



Source: https://twitter.com/wingoz/status/1199328844815249411

Last years game at Arrowhead was played on December 30th with temperatures being around 7°C/45°F and Mahomes and the Chiefs whiped the floor with the Raiders 35-3, while Carr threw for 185 yards for 0 TD and 2 INT. The Raiders under Carr often played at Arrowhead in December the last years with similar temperatures and Carr always put up disappointing numbers, losing all those games: 15-26 / 13-21 / 17-23 / 13-31 - and these games were all with Alex Smith playing QB for KC, now they have Mahomes.
On top of that, KC is coming off a bye-week and had more time to prepare. While this is probably not a stat, that backs up some HC-bet, Andy Reid has a remarkable 17-3 SU record when coming off a bye-week with his teams.

Although this sounds logical I just feel thats its a trap and I'd go with the ML, I think the refs have been interfering with too many games this yeah at key moments and it has been adjusting scores towards closer games.

Jets ML at Bengals I like as well. Only thing distracting me is the fact that the Bengals have a one win cushion for first draft pick now and they surely want to get at least one W, to not embarass themselves completely after tanking the whole season thus far. They still play the Dolphins and 2x Browns though, so they might save their energy for one of those games.

I wouldn't touch this hot mess for anything!
GL, i like your reasoning's

The pick of the week for me is green bay over the giants -6
5.  Giants have one of the worst LB/DB situations.  Aaron Rodgers is going to have a field day with them.  I would go on to think that green bay will win 34-17.  Green bay needs this win bad and the giants have nothing to play for, this one will get ugly fast

GB has really been stinking it up the last few weeks but the giants D have been making alot of teams look like champs so i would agree Rogers will get his this week even though Graham has been done for years so really beating up on those LB with a Top TE is the real soft spot. Even if the refs give the giants 200 yards and 21 points I think GB will cover that spread. Lol

My pick of the week would be the 49ers +6 versus the Ravens. The Ravens are good, might be winners of the AFC conference, however, they might not beat -6 spread versus one of the best teams in the NFC.

Yeah, I wouldn't bet on them to cover the spread.


For my pick of the week, I think I'll go for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I'll call the Bucs to cover the 1.5 easily.

[vella85]

I really like the Browns to get the win against the Steelers, the interesting game is the Bengals and the Jets. I would of thought that the Bengals would be paying a lot more then what they are currently offering so it makes me think Vegas knows something and I think we could see an upset however there isn't much value for the Bengals at the ML.

I have taken a big parlay with a some value hoping that I can hit like I did earlier in the year.

Browns ML
Bengals ML
Jaguars ML
Colts ML
Panthers ML
Chargers ML

Odds: $32. 70
Bet: $10
Return: $327.05

American odds is +3170

I know I'm crazy and taking a big risk but if you don't take the risk there is no reward. Good luck to everyone having a bet.

[nutildah]

I have taken a big parlay with a some value hoping that I can hit like I did earlier in the year.

Browns ML
Bengals ML
Jaguars ML
Colts ML
Panthers ML
Chargers ML

Odds: $32. 70
Bet: $10
Return: $327.05

American odds is +3170

Wow man, good luck! I'll be super impressed if you can pull this off! Unfortunately I'm currently too far out in the sticks to catch any of the games this week :/ , kinda pissed about that. Good luck to everyone else on their bets as well.

[TheRealWiseInvestor]

I have a COLTS today to finish my 4 leg parlay



As you can see im mixing this with my NHL +1.5 system and  college football. No NBA as nba is bankroll killer.


But i also hedged and played alternative line for TITANS +3.5 for 150 euros. So i root for COLTS to win by 1-3 to cash both bets. But according to my stats colts should pull this one off.

[morvillz7z]

I had as my main pick O 45.5 on SFO v BAL game but reports are 90% chance of rain (humidity 93) and i don't really want to bet against the weather so i'm skipping this one.

parlay 1 (Jets -3 and Panthers -9.5 total odds 3.20)
parlay 2 (Dolphins +10.5 and Tampa ML total odds 3.14)
parlay 3 (Arizona +2.5 and Chargers ML total odds 3.07)
I hope Panthers break the curse today and cover the spread (gl everyone!)


image source
My vote went with the Browns for the weekly poll. Do we see another fight? lol

[ralle14]

American odds is +3170

I know I'm crazy and taking a big risk but if you don't take the risk there is no reward. Good luck to everyone having a bet.

That is a long shot parlay, i'm with you on the Browns but slightly nervous since Steelers could look like a very different team when playing at home and not the one we saw that nearly lost to the Bengals. But I hope Browns could deliver and equalize their record.

Other bets i've placed are the Jets -2 and the Packers -6.5. Jets looking good with their win streak and after the beating they've given to the Raiders I think their momentum won't be stopped by the Bengals. The Packers had terrible results on the road but they're facing a team that only won once at home.

[Hueristic]

Quick, i need to pick 2 Kittle, hunter henry or Kelce???

I'm concderned with kittle against ravens in the rain.

H.Henry v/s  Den
Den gives up 14th most to TE

Kelce V/s Oak [Lock in I'd Say]
Oak gives up 5th most to TE

Kittle V/s Bal [Scary but hes a beast]
Ravens give up the 5th fewest and its going to be shitty rain.


Currently I am playing Kelce and henry and benching Kittle.


BTW you guys Dalton (will it be awesome dalton or dud dalton?? you never know) is back playing for the Bengals this week and once again I'm telling you Tannerhill (used to be Maimi's QB) is playing really well for the titans so betting against those gamkes is might risky.

[DireWolfM14]

I had as my main pick O 45.5 on SFO v BAL game but reports are 90% chance of rain (humidity 93) and i don't really want to bet against the weather so i'm skipping this one.

Noting on the line here, but this is going to come down to who runs the ball better.  I didn't notice anyone betting against the Niners.  

I know I'm crazy and taking a big risk but if you don't take the risk there is no reward. Good luck to everyone having a bet.

Holy brass balls, batman!  Best of luck man, I'll be rooting for you.

Good luck on your bets everyone!  

[Hueristic]

I had as my main pick O 45.5 on SFO v BAL game but reports are 90% chance of rain (humidity 93) and i don't really want to bet against the weather so i'm skipping this one.

Noting on the line here, but this is going to come down to who runs the ball better.  I didn't notice anyone betting against the Niners.  

I know I'm crazy and taking a big risk but if you don't take the risk there is no reward. Good luck to everyone having a bet.

Holy brass balls, batman!  Best of luck man, I'll be rooting for you.

Good luck on your bets everyone!  

What was your pick for this week on nutildah's game?


Added:

oh wow yeah that weather is gross in baltimore so the Ravens have a distinct advantage this game. And they just announced Breda is out, i thought he was supposed to be iin.

Funny I have Coleman on one team and  Ingram on the other.

Holy shit that 49er play on 4th down was sick!!!

Unfortunately I'm currently too far out in the sticks to catch any of the games this week :/ , kinda pissed about that. Good luck to everyone else on their bets as well.

If you can get any internet this site is good for finding a stream.
http://9live.club