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Author Topic: Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!!  (Read 7443 times)
El duderino_
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January 03, 2020, 12:41:18 AM
Last edit: January 03, 2020, 12:59:29 AM by micgoossens
 #1

HALVENING!!! <----- Bullish or bearish

Lets get something rolling.

I would like to award a winning price of 0.125BTC to the person that gets me the closest price of BTC at April 1st exactly measured at 22.00h CET

So the price of BTC a bit before the upcoming halving event

Few rules required to participate;

-Must have at least 25 EARNED merits.
-Must have at least 50 activity
-Mainly cause of o_e_l_e_o we found a new way to chose a price (been voted here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5213423.0)
 We will guess prices in boxes of 50$ ranges, looks as follow

 first is first and the price that will be picked has to be a nr for example like it starts from 0 and counts up

 0-50
 51-100
 101-150
 151-200
 ....
 7001-7050
 7051-7100
 7101-7150
 7151-7200
....
10001-10050
10051-10100
10101-10150
10151-10200
.....

 etc
 ^chose a box instead of a price valid from 0 to 1,000,000 just write it in the format that is given here and follows the count.


 So a member will be allowed to chose a price with his own 50$ range, a taken box is a reserved space not to be taken again.

 I will also ask when the game opens and someone takes a guess, to write it as shown in this post...

-once the price is on the LIST, it cannot be changed anymore, so think deep very DEEP before adding on Roll Eyes
-BITSTAMP PRICE TO BE CLEAR

-As this is a game purely out of generosity and in good spirit for the forum and precious community we have, I do hope that playing members do share there TA approach or share there thought of thinking why they chose the price they picked. Its nice for others to read and maybe discuss while the game is going, good writings will not go unnoticed...

*<--- will be written behind members name that gives TA or shared they thought why that price range the chose.

Please do read the OP, so it won't go wrong all the time with prices.....--->>> chose in BOX-FORMAT Cheesy



If any questions please first ask GL to all!!!!


I also chose to LOCK this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5213423.0 ...
Normally wanted to open the game in here, but there was already some discussion around the game and maybe could be misleading etc I hope you guys understand...   Again GL to all!!


LIST CLOSES 10 JANUARY AT 12.00 CET

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
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El duderino_
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January 03, 2020, 12:42:06 AM
Last edit: January 10, 2020, 11:32:34 PM by El duderino_
Merited by dragonvslinux (1)
 #2

As promised, I made a live leaderboard page for this game too, the address is still the same - https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

I made a small improvement, now the delta column comes with a sign, so you can quickly see how much and in which direction the price should change in order for that user to become #1 on the leaderboard.

Thx for the real time ticker awesome

Here is final list of participants with links to posts they have made.
Winning price range is range of price which makes a user winner. (This range can be bigger than 50 dollar.)

____________________________________________________________
Selected price rangeParticipantsWinning price range
____________________________________________________________
3101-3150Yaplatu0-3150
3151-3200KTChampions *3151-3325
3451-3500Eduarop3326-3950
4401-4450rdbase3951-4450
4451-4500MagicByt34451-4775
5051-5100fabiorem4776-5125
5151-5200sgbett *5126-5325
5451-5500cabalism135326-5550
5601-5650Asuspawer095551-5700
5751-5800Mallyx5701-5800
5801-5850makrospex5801-5875
5901-5950Mbitr5876-5950
5951-6000Snork19795951-6000
6001-6050tyKiwanuka *6001-6050
6051-6100tweetious6051-6125
6151-6200 bakasabo6126-6200
6201-6250dothebeats *6201-6250
6251-6300Heisenberg_Hunter *6251-6300
6301-6350Spray. * (A previous winner)6301-6350
6351-6400DoublerHunter6351-6400
6401-6450Saint-loup6401-6450
6451-6500Icygreen *6451-6500
6501-6550haloxon6501-6550
6551-6600Majormax *6551-6600
6601-6650bitebits (A previous winner)6601-6650
6651-6700Corrosive6651-6700
6701-6750Polar916701-6750
6751-6800theymos *6751-6800
6801-6850bbc.reporter *6801-6850
6851-6900ChuckBuck6851-6900
6901-6950Biodom6901-6950
6951-7000Last of the V8s6951-7000
7001-7050tvplus0067001-7050
7051-7100sirazimuth (A previous winner)7051-7100
7101-7150GazetaBitcoin7101-7150
7151-7200unsoindovo7151-7200
7201-7250hosseinimr93 *7201-7250
7251-7300wheelz12007251-7300
7301-7350dragonvslinux *7301-7350
7351-7400Cryptotourist7351-7400
7401-7450android177401-7450
7451-7500bct_ail7451-7500
7501-7550iasenko7501-7550
7551-7600xyz7551-7600
7601-7650sheenshane7601-7650
7651-77007jaka77651-7700
7701-7750Lauda7701-7750
7751-7800ezeminer *7751-7800
7801-7850Globb0 * (A previous winner)7801-7850
7851-7900teeGUMES7851-7900
7901-7950tg887901-7950
7951-8000leea-1334 *7951-8000
8001-8050HairyMaclairy *8001-8050
8051-8100wachtwoord8051-8100
8101-8150brobbel8101-8150
8151-8200gentlemand (A previous winner)8151-8200
8201-8250Ryker18201-8250
8251-8300JSRAW8251-8300
8301-8350marlboroza8301-8350
8351-8400efialtis8351-8400
8401-8450TopTort7778401-8450
8451-8500madnessteat8451-8500
8501-8550pawel77778501-8550
8551-8600kurious *8551-8600
8601-8650oscar2000 *8601-8650
8651-8700mindrust8651-8700
8701-8750Phil_S *8701-8750
8751-8800abel13378751-8800
8801-8850malevolent *8801-8850
8851-8900mu_enrico8851-8900
8901-8950stompix8901-8950
8951-9000Mitchell8951-9000
9001-9050Dunkelheit667 *9001-9050
9051-9100actmyname9051-9100
9101-9150Olegya1999101-9150
9151-9200somac.9151-9200
9201-9250psycodad9201-9250
9251-9300Tytanowy Janusz9251-9300
9301-9350hatshepsut93 *9301-9350
9351-9400BobLawblaw9351-9400
9401-9450Febo9401-9450
9451-9500buwaytress *9451-9500
9501-9550FutureBitcoin9501-9550
9551-9600Vispilio9551-9600
9601-96501miau9601-9650
9651-9700DragonDance9651-9700
9701-9750JimboToronto *9701-9750
9751-9800AlcoHoDL9751-9800
9801-9850wwzsocki 9801-9850
9851-9900thisisntbic9851-9900
9901-9950DeathAngel9901-9950
9951-10000GrosWesh9951-10000
10001-10050jojo6910001-10050
10051-10100BitcoinGirl.Club10051-10100
10101-10150Lanatsa10101-10150
10151-10200krogothmanhattan10151-10200
10201-10250vapourminer10201-10250
10251-10300JanEmil10251-10300
10301-10350BitcoinPenny10301-10350
10351-10400cryptobaboon10351-10400
10401-10450RapTarX10401-10450
10451-10500ivomm *10451-10500
10501-10550DireWolfM1410501-10550
10551-10600F2b10551-10600
10601-10650hacker100110100110601-10650
10651-10700LoyceV *10651-10700
10701-10750xLays10701-10750
10751-10800d_eddie10751-10800
10801-10850SPQRCoin10801-10850
10851-10900akhjob10851-10900
10901-10950Dabs10901-10950
10951-11000wh1rlw1nd *10951-11000
11001-11050RaspoBTC11001-11050
11051-11100Swordsoffreedom *11051-11100
11101-11150slaman29 *11101-11150
11151-11200Searing11151-11200
11201-11250FontSeli11201-11250
11251-11300LFC_Bitcoin11251-11300
11301-11350Real-Duke11301-11350
11351-11400geophphreigh11351-11400
11401-11450Sat0shisGhost11401-11450
11451-11500bitmover11451-11500
11501-11550LUCKMCFLY *11501-11550
11551-11600alegotardo11551-11600
11601-11650STT *11601-11650
11651-11700bitserve11651-11700
11701-11750johhnyUA *11701-11750
11751-11800xenon13111751-11800
11801-11850freedomgo11801-11850
11851-11900Kasabus11851-11900
11901-11950P_Shep11901-11950
11951-12000WhiteManWhite11951-12000
12001-12050Stedsm12001-12050
12051-12100Soonandwaite12051-12100
12101-12150naska2112101-12150
12151-12200gokudera12151-12200
12201-12250Lesbian Cow12201-12250
12251-12300Darker45 *12251-12300
12301-12350o_e_l_e_o12301-12350
12351-12400Lakai0112351-12400
12401-12450NeuroticFish12401-12450
12451-12500cygan12451-12500
12501-12550ChinkyEyes12501-12550
12551-12600Questat12551-12600
12601-12650tokeweed12601-12650
12651-12700exstasie (A previous winner)12651-12700
12701-12750rhomelmabini12701-12750
12751-12800Russlenat12751-12800
12801-12850Nestade12801-12850
12851-12900asu12851-12900
12901-12950figmentofmyass12901-12975
13001-13050Hhampuz12976-13050
13051-13100jokers1013051-13100
13101-13150hanspeter7713101-13150
13151-13200Captain-Cryptory13151-13200
13201-13250Yamifoud *13201-13250
13251-13300SFR1013251-13300
13301-13350JollyGood13301-13350
13351-13400Yatsan13351-13400
13401-13450eddie1313401-13450
13451-13500Buchi-8813451-13500
13501-13550epis1113501-13550
13551-13600HI-TEC9913551-13675
13751-13800squatter13676-13875
13951-14000igor7213876-14000
14001-14050klaaas14001-14100
14151-14200Unknown0114101-14200
14201-14250Hueristic14201-14300
14351-14400Debonaire21714301-14400
14401-14450mole081514401-14450
14451-14500Koal-8414451-14500
14501-14550qwk14501-14550
14551-14600Sanitough14551-14600
14601-14650Viscore14601-14650
14651-14700Lucasgabd14651-14700
14701-14750fronti14701-14750
14751-14800mirakal14751-14850
14901-14950Steamtyme14851-14975
15001-15050tranthidung14976-15100
15151-15200zasad@15101-15200
15201-15250TryNinja15201-15250
15251-15300stadus15251-15750
16201-16250plvbob007015751-16275
16301-16350Alai19 *16276-16350
16351-16400xhomerx1016351-16400
16401-16450finaleshot201616401-16475
16501-16550PoolMinor16476-16575
16601-16650SwayStar12316576-16725
16801-16850yefi16726-16850
16851-16900Vaculin16851-16950
17001-17050Paashaas16951-17250
17451-17500friends198017251-17500
17501-17550minerjones17501-17675
17801-17850HBKMusiK17676-17900
17951-18000DdmrDdmr17901-18400
18801-18850Wind_FURY18401-18850
18851-18900rdluffy18851-19200
19501-19550MishaMuc19201-19600
19651-19700posi19601-19850
20001-20050 ChefImGartenPavillion19851-21000
21951-22000bitcoinPsycho *21001-22250
22501-22550Bitcoinaire22251-22550
22551-22600bkbirge22551-22900
23201-23250pressnegl22901-23375
23501-23550Hyperjacked23376-24025
24501-24550VB100124026-24775
25001-25050fillippone *24776-26775
28501-28550Smartprofit26776-31275
34001-34050smartcomet31276-35525
37001-37050StartupAnalyst35526-
____________________________________________________________



For creating the table, I used 1miau's template.


Thx for creating this list and Good Luck to all !!!


XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
El duderino_
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January 03, 2020, 12:42:16 AM
 #3

reserved

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gentlemand
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January 03, 2020, 01:06:20 AM
 #4

8151-8200 since it worked before.

Here's the source of my TA


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January 03, 2020, 01:11:25 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), gentlemand (1), GrosWesh (1)
 #5

Some have said that this halving won't have as much effect as the last two, but it's still a reduction in monetary inflation from 3.7%/yr to 1.8%/yr, which is far from nothing, and in fact I see it as permanently bringing BTC out of the inflationary era and into the deflationary era. I'm not sure that we'll see 20k again in 2020 (though it could happen), but I think that 10k+ is quite likely several months after the halving. Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

For now though I don't see enough enthusiasm or other upward pressure. To the institutional investors who most push the market, BTC is largely seen as "leveraged gold", but the US/worldwide economy looks fine for now on its surface, fiat inflation isn't a widespread concern, etc. (BTC also has fundamental value beyond its value as "gold" -- a hedge against inflation and fiat collapse --, but this is a large component of the price currently.) So absent any major news, I think that the trendline is slightly downward for now. ("Major news" would be mostly regulatory-related, such as an approved BTC ETF or increased regulatory pressure. Probably the downside risk is higher than the upside risk here.)

One point of upward pressure is that there may have been some tax-loss-harvesting sales in Q4, which would now disappear. Not sure how big of an effect this was. And you might justify early-year volatility as people locking in gains ASAP in tax year 2020.

I predict that we'll sit in the 6k-7k range for some time between now and the halving, and although I wouldn't be too surprised to see prices in the lower half of that range, I'll guess near the high end, leading to my prediction of 6751-6800 on April 1. On the other hand, I predict that the supply reduction as well as mounting worldwide economic shakiness will cause a large runup (at least above 10k) in the second half of 2020. In the unlikely event that I win, please donate the BTC to a BTC-accepting charity of your choice (eg. intelligence.org or fee.org).

1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD
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January 03, 2020, 01:15:22 AM
Last edit: January 03, 2020, 04:13:52 AM by HairyMaclairy
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #6

$8001 - $8050

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January 03, 2020, 01:21:27 AM
 #7

@theymos, impressive talk and kind of to donate when winning

Cheers and GL

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
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January 03, 2020, 01:21:34 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #8

I reckon we are back roughly in line with the last halving, after deviating in the middle of last year.

There may well be a run-up blip, but it will disappoint most...

So using a proportional overlay of 2016 to 2020, I will disappoint MicG, (sorry, mate) and pick....

8551-8600

Are haikus required?

I hope I am wrong
And am guessing way too low
Bitcoin's halving price


Well done Mic - another great game.

我想要火箭和火车
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January 03, 2020, 01:23:15 AM
 #9

I'll go with the $7751-7800 with my TA of 7777 is a pretty lucky number.

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January 03, 2020, 01:24:11 AM
 #10

I am also not as bullish similar to theymos and put my range to 6801 - 6850. I speculate that this halving might be the time of discovery and the beginning of a discussion of bitcoin's flaws.

..bustadice..         ▄▄████████████▄▄
     ▄▄████████▀▀▀▀████████▄▄
   ▄███████████    ███████████▄
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 ███████████  ████        ██       ████
             ████         ██        ████
███████████  ████     ▄▄▄▄██        ████
             ████     ▀▀▀▀▀▀        ████
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               ████▄             ▄████
   ███████████  ▀████▄▄       ▄▄████▀
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          ▄██▄
           ████
            ██
            ▀▀
 ▄██████████████████████▄
██████▀▀██████████▀▀██████
█████    ████████    █████
█████▄  ▄████████▄  ▄█████
██████████████████████████
██████████████████████████
    ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
    ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
       ████████████
......Play......
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January 03, 2020, 01:28:50 AM
 #11

7851-7900 - complete guess as I've never studied any TA.. I looked at my bitcoin nixie tube ticker and this range of price just came to me.
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January 03, 2020, 01:31:19 AM
 #12

10151-10200

███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███▮▮▮███
KROGOTHMANHATTANESCROW
SERVICE
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`▄███████████████████████████████████████████████████████▄`
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El duderino_
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January 03, 2020, 01:32:11 AM
 #13

I am also not as bullish similar to theymos and put my range to 6801 - 6850. I speculate that this halving might be the time of discovery and the beginning of a discussion of bitcoin's flaws.

BTC's flaws please do tell??

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January 03, 2020, 01:32:48 AM
 #14

10151-10200

I was just about to write, 5dig is allowed ....

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January 03, 2020, 01:37:27 AM
 #15

9851-9900

I hope I'm wrong and it's a lot higher but that's my guess

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January 03, 2020, 01:47:08 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #16

$6,451 - $6,500
I expect a final war for the last major plateau at $6,400 before the previous drop to $3150. This battleground will ultimately lead to major support or resistance and I expect that we will be inside this range leading to the having.

Thanks for the game mic! Like the new style Wink
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January 03, 2020, 01:50:20 AM
 #17

$6,450 - $6,500
I expect a final war for the last major plateau at $6,400 before the previous drop to $3150. This battleground will ultimately lead to major support or resistance and I expect that we will be inside this range leading to the having.

Thanks for the game mic! Like the new style Wink

Please be wrong in like every line in this post  Kiss  Kiss

But most of all get your price right it has to be 6451 Cheesy

Thx for digging the new style...

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January 03, 2020, 01:52:20 AM
 #18

8151-8200 since it worked before.

Here's the source of my TA



 So that's why they call him HairyMaclairy!

 I'd like to take 16351-16400 FTW please

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January 03, 2020, 02:19:41 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #19

Here we go again with a generous award sponsored by micgoossens.

The last halving was in July 2016. Let's have a look on the "performance" from March till May 2016: -5.06%, 8.13%, 18.60%.

The opening price on January 1st 2020 was 7160.69 USD. If we base the same percentage values (which we shouldn't  Wink) this will result in a price of 9016.27 USD.

So my guess is 9001-9050 USD.

Thanks a bunch! Smiley

And as always good luck to all participants!

"And the machine keeps pushing time through the cogs, like paste into strings into paste again, and only the machine keeps using time to make time to make time.
And when the machine stops, time is an illusion that we created free will.
" - an unnamed Hybrid
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January 03, 2020, 02:21:36 AM
 #20

10001-10050

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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