🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[wheelz1200]

All teams for the NFC east all in for a chance in the playoff hehehehe. I want the Redskins.

Cowboys in my eyes have the easiest remaining schedule with 3 divisional games (two of those at home), Bengals, banged-up 49ers, and the Ravens.
Eagles next 4 vs. Seahawks, Packers, Saints, and Cardinals...i can't give them anything but four losses, and they are not benching Wentz, best case scenario Eagles finish the season with 5/10/1.
Giants have a bunch of tough games remaining but if they can win against the Browns or Cardinals at home, 6 and 10 is doable.
Washington has to win on Thanksgiving first and maybe hope the Giants finish with 5 and 10.

I want to see either NYG/WAS make the playoffs, if the Eagles somehow make it with 5/10/1, i pledge to not watch a single game until Super Bowl LV.. fuck Wentz

<...> so i'll just go against my gut and go for the Rams +4.5

Good luck with your bet, Goff was trash vs. Miami in their last away game, not sure what to expect from him, that's why i'm skipping this one, also want to finish the week with a positive record, took the Raiders with 2 extra pts on the spread with decent odds yesterday:

Agreed, they need to keep their defense tight though.  The cowboya offense isn't going to score a lot of points (think they had 3 offensive touchdowns in 5 games without dak before yesterday).  So I think thats where even though they have the easiest road I think they will struggle to keep up with other teams.  They played well yesterday.  Big move was taking Martin and moving him from guard to rt.  That helped alot in the pocket

[nutildah]

Immediately I like Miami at +1 vs. Denver, might get in on that.

Did you play that in early markets already ? Because it's -3.5 now, which looks about right, but +1 is nice value.

Turns out I was looking at the line open and not the current line. Good thing I didn't put in a bet because Miami got schooled. After they took Tagovailoa out, it began to occur to me he was the only reason I was rooting for Miami, as they are otherwise a very boring team. I hope having one lackluster game out of six won't be enough to demote Tua to 2nd string, especially because the Dolphins O-line looked weak AF. Otherwise Fitzpatrick starts. Ew.

Last night, the Raiders almost beat the Chiefs, that would have been a spectacular upset. I didn't put a bet in on today's Rams game because I don't want to jinx their chances of winning, which aren't hot, but as my team I have to root for them anyway. Goff isn't much more exciting than your average quarterback but Cooper Kupp is a lot of fun to watch.

[Hueristic]

Cooper Kupp is a lot of fun to watch.

Woods is one of my favorite all time receivers, hes completely underrated but always there to say Goff's ass. The last few years I drafted both of them and never regretted it for a minute.

[wheelz1200]

Was a nice win for the rams last night.  That might be a big game when it comes down to wild card implications.  Wouldn't mind seeing Tom finally sitting one out. 

This week I got the Giants and the money line.  First significant action in awhile.  I expect the giants defense to throw some wierd coverages at him to confuse him enough for the giants to win this one 27-13.  (Giant homer yep)

[DireWolfM14]

After they took Tagovailoa out, it began to occur to me he was the only reason I was rooting for Miami, as they are otherwise a very boring team.

Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa.  I just love saying that name, but yeah, he's fun to watch.

Last night, the Raiders almost beat the Chiefs, that would have been a spectacular upset. I didn't put a bet in on today's Rams game because I don't want to jinx their chances of winning, which aren't hot, but as my team I have to root for them anyway. Goff isn't much more exciting than your average quarterback but Cooper Kupp is a lot of fun to watch.

The Raiders/Chiefs was a fun game to watch.  The Chiefs needed that game, a second loss to the Raiders could have playoff implications.  It's good to see the Raiders doing well, I've always like Jon Gruden.

I can't help but root for Goff, which is a difficult hurdle, but I agree he's not that exciting of a quarterback to watch.  He's got all the traits and he's actually fairly mobile, but with that offensive line he can work the pocket like the game plan calls for.  He out-Brady'd Brady.  That was a good win for them, congrats.

[wheelz1200]

After they took Tagovailoa out, it began to occur to me he was the only reason I was rooting for Miami, as they are otherwise a very boring team.

Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa.  I just love saying that name, but yeah, he's fun to watch.

Last night, the Raiders almost beat the Chiefs, that would have been a spectacular upset. I didn't put a bet in on today's Rams game because I don't want to jinx their chances of winning, which aren't hot, but as my team I have to root for them anyway. Goff isn't much more exciting than your average quarterback but Cooper Kupp is a lot of fun to watch.

The Raiders/Chiefs was a fun game to watch.  The Chiefs needed that game, a second loss to the Raiders could have playoff implications.  It's good to see the Raiders doing well, I've always like Jon Gruden.

I can't help but root for Goff, which is a difficult hurdle, but I agree he's not that exciting of a quarterback to watch.  He's got all the traits and he's actually fairly mobile, but with that offensive line he can work the pocket like the game plan calls for.  He out-Brady'd Brady.  That was a good win for them, congrats.

I agree that was a real good win for them.  At the end of the season that game might very well dictate who gets into the ayoffs and who doesn't.  Goff needed to be good in that particular game.  I dont watch him all that often but since they are usually one of the only later games I get to see them a lot on Red Zone.  He hasn't looked that good all year even with his 2 picks.  I picked him up for the week in fantasy too since I have Josh allen and thwy were off.  Thanks goff

[ChiBitCTy]

^ I feel really bad for Joe Burrow.  Dude was absolutely balling out and on his way to a great career.  Not like it's over, but that was certainly a catastrophic injury.

Sucks complete ass about tomorrow nights game being cancelled between the Steelers and the Ravens.  I was planning to be that game but now I'm looking at the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys.  Right now Dallas is -3..I fully expect Washington to win this game, so i'll happily take +3 .

[tyKiwanuka]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone One of my favourite days every year, too bad we always get to see the Lions and Cowboys

For first game I will just go with Houston ML, since they usually beat the teams they are supposed to beat. And this Lions team is nothing special, especially with all the injuriy trouble they still have on top of Stafford not being 100% with his thumb. Houston isn't super healthy themselves, but they have been doing ok-ish lately and had a tough schedule so far this season. We had the same matchup on Thanksgiving in 2012; it was the first TG game for Houston ever and they won it 34-31 after OT - I hope this time it will be less nerve-wrecking. I also like the under, but it's meh to play that.

Second game is a bit trickier (at least for me), since both teams seem to have found their groove with new QB's. HC being around a FG in this divisional matchup looks about right and I will stay away pre-match, though my gut feeling tells me, that WAS will win this in the end with Alex Smith having nice stats since he took over.

[ralle14]

My main bet is also the Texans I feel like the odds should be more favored after their win against the Patriots.

Also took these prop bets since sportsbet gave away a couple of free bets.

Akins had like 80 last game so covering 25yards wouldn't be an issue for him since he averages like 40-50 per game. The only games he went under 20 was against the Jags and Browns.
J. Akins 25+ Receiving yds (Game);Money line - Texans @2.4

McLaurin should hit 70 easily since he's averaging close to 90 in the past three games or so. Confident on Elliott getting one here if this becomes a high scoring game.
T. McLaurin 70+ Receiving yds (Game); E. Elliott Score anytime (Game)

[South Park]

^ I feel really bad for Joe Burrow.  Dude was absolutely balling out and on his way to a great career.  Not like it's over, but that was certainly a catastrophic injury.

He is young so I think he will recover completely from this but I really hope the Bengals put a good OL in front of the kid or this is going to keep happening, I do not want another Andrew Luck being wasted by their GM.

Haskins looks like a complete waste of a pick at this point

And speaking of wasted talent, personally I have never like one hit wonders in college, Haskins only saw action during two of his three years in college and was only the starter in one, to me that is too short of a time to be able to tell if a QB has what it needs to succeed at the professional level, but at the same time he has gone to an organization that is a complete mess, it does not even have a name right now that should tell us how much of a mess they are, it seems only the owner wanted him and the coaches did not and now they have a new coach that brought his own QB and Alex Smith miraculously came back, so his chances of seeing the field again this season are low if Smith can remain healthy, and if we add that his work ethic has been called into question by the coaches then this is not looking good for him.

[morvillz7z]

I'm so glad that the NFC East has a new team at the top and it's not the Eagles...yay, hope it stays that way until the end of the reg season.

Both overs hit today with some serious cushion, brutal 4th quarter for the Cowboys, McLaurin with the play of that day...crazy recovery which saved the TD and maybe the game. I was heavily backing the Washington Football Team to win in this one (1, 2, 3).

Can't wait for Sunday as we have some great matchups, Chiefs @ Tampa, and the battle for AFC South between the Colts and Titans.

[bbc.reporter]

There was a change in the game's schedule for Thursday?

In any case, yes Redskins go hehehe! When was the last time they reached the playoffs?

@morvillz7z. Where do you get your game statistics, news and other analysis? I want to learn how to not give more coins to the sportsbook hehehehe.

Also, what are the statistics that I should be studying first?

[morvillz7z]

for player/team news i use either rotoworld or reddit:
https://www.rotoworld.com/sports/nfl/football
https://reddit.com/r/nfl/

my go-to place for stats and data is teamrankings, good alternatives are nfl.com or espn, pro-football-reference too:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/
https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/
https://www.espn.com/nfl/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

if you are into fantasy football and player props, id recommend fantasypros and fantasydata:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/
https://fantasydata.com/nfl

stats i look the most when quick comparing teams are:
Points per Game
Rushing Yards per Game
Passing Yards per Game
Opponent Points per Game
Opponent Yards per Game
Opponent Rushing Yards per Game
Penalty Yards per Game

i have extremely inconsistent results this year, either really good or very bad (for reference my previous bets in this thread). 
if someone else has some interesting sites not mentioned above, please do share.

[wheelz1200]

what a horrendous two games today.  I can't believe the cowboys got annialated at home by Washington.  This nfc east is terrible.  If the eagles lose to Seattle on Monday night (which they should) and the giants beat the Bengals who are starting a practice squad quarterback then the giants will be in first place in week 12 with 4 wins.  Ba hahaha.  Crazy, but hey if there is any year it's would happen why not 2020 right.  😃

[nutildah]

I can't believe the cowboys got annialated at home by Washington. 

I can. Dallas is simply awful this year. I mean their quarterback is Andy Dalton, who was fired from the NFL's worst team of my lifetime. Also, home field advantage is negligible this year for teams with empty stadiums (Ty pointed that out before the season started if memory serves). I was kind of rooting for Washington anyway. Hopefully they'll find a new name for next year's season!

[slaman29]

So guys. I think I placed my first ever NFL bets in my life. Or maybe I placed them before but it was totally for fun if I did, just like if I ever bet on curling or skiing or games I do not know the rules to;)

Anyway, it's just those betbuilder freebets I got from Sportsbet I went for the Cincinnati Bengals - New York Giants. Should have asked you guys first I guess;)

Money line - Giants (Game)
Total points - Over 37.5 (Game)
Money line - Giants (1st quarter)

[tyKiwanuka]

This nfc east is terrible. 

I think it has actually gotten better in the last weeks with WAS/NYG improving a lot. Especially WAS is doing really good and who would have thought Alex Smith being the reason for that. He is the same old - kind of boring - game manager he always was, but it's just what they needed. It does not only help their offense, but maybe even more so their defense, which was already very good before. They now get way more rest with Smith being able to orchester long drives. Now it was just the Cowboys, but I was impressed with the Football Team yesterday.

The Giants progress is mainly due to the O-Line clicking better as a group, which brings me to this....

Dallas is simply awful this year.

....and how important a good O-Line is. Cowboys probably had the best O-Line in the NFL for years and they invested heavily in it. Prescott is a product of that, as is Zeke - both have their qualities, but they are nowhere near as good as the 5 big guys made them look. Dallas sacrificed their defense for it and it worked out ok-ish for them. Now this O-Line is in shambles, but they still have their bad defense So this can't work out no more. Dalton at QB doesn't help, but everyone would struggle in Dallas atm.

Also, home field advantage is negligible this year for teams with empty stadiums

Well, there were quite some people at AT&T Stadium yesterday, but yes, I do still think that these empty-ish stadiums take away a good part of home field advantage. For NFL this is mainly the communication for the away team (fewer false start penalties f.e.), the refs being less biased and the cheering the home players don't get for their plays and which pumps them up. These young guys love the show and the attention they get

But there is still a home advantage imo, because it's not all the about crowd, which we were discussing here. Playing at home - even without spectators - you still have the advantage of not having to travel, staying in your usual environment, being familiar with the facilities; in general the feeling of being at home basically.

[nutildah]

But there is still a home advantage imo, because it's not all the about crowd, which we were discussing here. Playing at home - even without spectators - you still have the advantage of not having to travel, staying in your usual environment, being familiar with the facilities; in general the feeling of being at home basically.

Word. This is a good point actually and I was glossing over the details in my assessment. When I see teams with even just 1/5 full stadiums I have a positive psychological response because its just a trace of normality that lets me enjoy the game w/o thinking about covid. Perhaps its not cost effective for some stadiums to run at 1/5 capacity, and there's not much more that people can do right now to change that besides try hard not to get covid, lol.

Anyway.

I have a few semi-confident to confident picks this week, gonna put the ML for each team in at a parlay, but I also like the lines for these games, going by each team's overall ATS % wins:

Cleveland -7
Miami -7
Las Vegas -3

The one I feel least confident about is Miami because it comes down to whether Tagovailoa is starting QB or not. As of now he's listed as questionable with a thumb injury, but I'm thinking that he's gonna start.

[DireWolfM14]

Self moderated topic local rules; spam posts will be deleted.

I've intentionally left the self-mod rules in this thread extremely relaxed, but what you did there is blatant spam.  Feel free to engage in the discussion, and I don't mind if you mention your projects as a part of that discussion, but please don't do that again.

~

[ChiBitCTy]

I really liked the +3 Washington over Dallas, much more so than everything else, but here's what I like for tomorrow..thoughts?

*Titans +3 vs Indianapolis Colts
I'll happily take the Titans +3.  Even though they are on the road, I see them as a superior team to the Colts.  It looks as if AJ Brown will be playing too which is huge.  Not that it matters a ton but Jonathan Taylor has just been ruled out for the Colts

*Dolphins -7 vs Jets
Regardless of what QB ends up under center at the end of this game, I think Miami is sizably better than the Jets.

*Chiefs -3.5 over Bucs
Bucs are reeling right now, and Brady just ins't who Brady even was last year.  His passing percentage past 20 yards is extremely low, and their defense isn't as strong as once thought.  I think the Chiefs come out and take care of business.

To a lesser extent I like the Rams -6.5, Browns -7, and Cardinals -1.5