🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[DireWolfM14]

@DireWolfM14 said that Allen is on the injury report, but I can't find him there, so he will be fit I guess. Do you have a link Dire ?

The official NFL site's injury report: https://www.nfl.com/injuries/

The list doesn't specify the injury, but I think it's a lingering knee and ankle sprain he suffered a couple of weeks ago.  He's been practicing all week, so I'm sure he'll start.

[wheelz1200]

Was thinking of taking a prop bet for Allen under 2 pass tds.  In the last 5 games Broncos only allowed 2 passing tds...

I wouldn't recommend that one, since the Broncos are very thin in their secondary. They lost Toliver/Dawson at the Panthers and Bouye is suspended. @DireWolfM14 said that Allen is on the injury report, but I can't find him there, so he will be fit I guess. Do you have a link Dire ?

Bills ML looks the obvious choice, but the odds are a bit low for my liking. Will wait for 1.80 inplay. Same goes for GB, but here 1.50 would be enough for me, though I doubt I will get that. Panthers are a weird team this season, they are often able to keep things close, but rarely win. No bet probably the best solution for both games^^

Yeah I'm steering clear of the prop bets.  Sticking with my over and under picks for the day.  Besides in ff playoffs and have Allen as my qb so I need a bunch of points/tds out of him today.  Wouldn't mind a 3 rushing td day for Allen though and zero thrown tds

[suchmoon]

But a team closing a game up by 8 isn't common at all.

Two TDs vs two field goals? IIRC 8 points happens about 3% of the time, similar to 2 and 5 point margins.

I went with Bills -2.5 and Packers -3.5 today.

[nutildah]

@DireWolfM14 said that Allen is on the injury report, but I can't find him there, so he will be fit I guess. Do you have a link Dire ?

The official NFL site's injury report: https://www.nfl.com/injuries/

The list doesn't specify the injury, but I think it's a lingering knee and ankle sprain he suffered a couple of weeks ago.  He's been practicing all week, so I'm sure he'll start.

Yeah, it looks like he is:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/12/19/22190288/buffalo-bills-vs-denver-broncos-broadcast-info-announcers-streaming-radio-television-week-15

I was tempted to bet Buffalo ML just to make the game more interesting, but its dropped to 1.39x... Not worth risking IMO.

Bills ML looks the obvious choice, but the odds are a bit low for my liking. Will wait for 1.80 inplay.

Sounds reasonable.

Technically its not a "must-win" game for the Bills; even though they didn't clinch their division there's almost no chance they won't end up in the playoffs. Broncos... somehow technically still in it but an unappetizing team to bet on.

[morvillz7z]

Besides in ff playoffs and have Allen as my qb so I need a bunch of points/tds out of him today.  Wouldn't mind a 3 rushing td day for Allen though and zero thrown tds

Hehe same here, what's worst for me is that my opponent had Herbert at QB and he killed it with 300+ yards and a bunch of TDs, i don't see Allen coming close to that, but we can always dream...lol

It was very hard to find something interesting for BUF/DEN game, but i ended up with Bills O17.5 pts + Bills ml + J.Allen 25+ rush yards for 2.28 total odds.
Buffalo average 320 passing yards in their away games (second in the league), but the Broncos have a decent to solid pass defense, so i went with Allen rush yards instead. Denver, in their last two games, gave 26 rush yards to Mahomes and 31 to Bridgewater, Allen should top that imo.

My Broncos prop ticket: M.Gordon III 40+ rush yards + J.Jeudy 25+ receiving yards for around 1.7x

edit;

Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.

Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here 

[nutildah]

It was very hard to find something interesting for BUF/DEN game, but i ended up with Bills O17.5 pts + Bills ml + J.Allen 25+ rush yards for 2.28 total odds.

Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.

[tyKiwanuka]

Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.

The 17.5 is the Bills team total, not the HC If it was HC, the odds would be way higher than 2.28; HC-17.5 for the Bilils you could get for around 4.50. And you can't parlay ML+HC of course (would be nice, if one could though ).

[nutildah]

Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.

The 17.5 is the Bills team total, not the HC If it was HC, the odds would be way higher than 2.28; HC-17.5 for the Bilils you could get for around 4.50. And you can't parlay ML+HC of course (would be nice, if one could though ).

Oh.. yeah apparently I didn't get it.

Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here 

Edit: Well they covered 17.5 and you won your bet anyway, so I am awarding you the 3 merits.

[wheelz1200]

Besides in ff playoffs and have Allen as my qb so I need a bunch of points/tds out of him today.  Wouldn't mind a 3 rushing td day for Allen though and zero thrown tds

Hehe same here, what's worst for me is that my opponent had Herbert at QB and he killed it with 300+ yards and a bunch of TDs, i don't see Allen coming close to that, but we can always dream...lol

It was very hard to find something interesting for BUF/DEN game, but i ended up with Bills O17.5 pts + Bills ml + J.Allen 25+ rush yards for 2.28 total odds.
Buffalo average 320 passing yards in their away games (second in the league), but the Broncos have a decent to solid pass defense, so i went with Allen rush yards instead. Denver, in their last two games, gave 26 rush yards to Mahomes and 31 to Bridgewater, Allen should top that imo.

My Broncos prop ticket: M.Gordon III 40+ rush yards + J.Jeudy 25+ receiving yards for around 1.7x

edit;

Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.

Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here 

Well Allen has came to play.  2 passing tds 2 rushing.  300+ yards passing.  And only in the 3rd quarter.  He is killing it.  My Buffalo under has gotten destroyed lol, well at least Allen is looking good today

[suchmoon]

We've seen many bad kicks in the last few weeks but I think Broncos' new kicker is the worst.

[morvillz7z]

Well Allen has came to play.  2 passing tds 2 rushing.  300+ yards passing.  And only in the 3rd quarter.  He is killing it.

Yeah, i take my words back, Josh Allen is GOD, 37.66 fantasy points, though refs robbed us of a few pts in the third with some questionable imo penalties/calls. I mean he will single-handedly get my ass to the championship game next week, i'm now with a projected 20pts lead over my opponent, and i have Davante Adams in a few minutes. He has been beasting all season long, i need a td or two and 100+ yards, and call it a wrap.

Have a few more bets, but too lazy to type those out:
https://i.ibb.co/kyjbzKH/jfhfgjd.png lost
https://i.ibb.co/S0zPkg7/sdfwege.png lost
https://i.ibb.co/Lzdp0pZ/fadhfad.png lost

edit;
-the number one ranked team on offense with just 3pts in the second half
-Adams who's avg over 100 yards per game, 8 straight with at least one TD, finishes with zero and less than 50 rec yards
-this is fucking aids

ps; the goddamn Jeudy, 6 yards short for my other bet, dropped 2 easy ones.

[DireWolfM14]

Two TDs vs two field goals? IIRC 8 points happens about 3% of the time, similar to 2 and 5 point margins.

That's a good point, and believe me, math is a strong point of mine.  I can see that sort of thing happening while the game is in the early stages, but as time winds down teams aren't likely to settle for feildgoals when their down by touchdowns.  That stat about how frequently those spreads pop up is interesting, where did you find that?  3% is actually less than I would have guessed, but I can see that.

Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.

The 17.5 is the Bills team total, not the HC If it was HC, the odds would be way higher than 2.28; HC-17.5 for the Bilils you could get for around 4.50. And you can't parlay ML+HC of course (would be nice, if one could though ).

Oh.. yeah apparently I didn't get it.

Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here 

Edit: Well they covered 17.5 and you won your bet anyway, so I am awarding you the 3 merits.

Lol, they sure did.  I thought I was walking on the wild side by taking them at -6.5!

[suchmoon]

That's a good point, and believe me, math is a strong point of mine.  I can see that sort of thing happening while the game is in the early stages, but as time winds down teams aren't likely to settle for feildgoals when their down by touchdowns.  That stat about how frequently those spreads pop up is interesting, where did you find that?  3% is actually less than I would have guessed, but I can see that.

3.6% to be more accurate:

Code:

MOV 	Probability
0 	0.2%
1 	3.7%
2 	3.8%
3 	14.5%
4 	5.2%
5 	3.4%
6 	6.2%
7 	9.2%
8 	3.6%
9 	1.7%
10 	5.6%
11 	2.5%
12 	1.5%
13 	2.9%
14 	4.8%
15 	1.5%
16 	2.1%
17 	3.1%
18 	2.3%
19 	1.1%
20 	2.4%
21 	3.2%
22+ 	15.7% 

But aside from idle curiosity I don't know how really useful that info is. Bookies obviously have access to much more elaborate models and won't give away free money on something as simple as a point spread.

[DireWolfM14]

SON OF A BITCH!

[suchmoon]

SON OF A BITCH!

3.6% dude

No 2-point conversions or any other weirdness, each team had the same number of scores, but:

Panthers - FG TD FG FG
Packers - TD TD TD FG

So two touchdowns vs two FGs = 8

Granted the decision by Panthers to go for that last field goal was unusual. Most coaches would have gone for a touchdown in that situation, so it would have been 11 or 5 or 3 points at the end, all other things being equal.

[DireWolfM14]

3.6% dude

It's almost like I'm the opposite of clairvoyant.  Next time I go on a rant about how this or that is so unlikely, please remind me of this episode, lol.  I might just have to gamble on being wrong, and all will be well with the world.

Granted the decision by Panthers to go for that last field goal was unusual. Most coaches would have gone for a touchdown in that situation, so it would have been 11 or 5 or 3 points at the end, all other things being equal.

Yeah, that decision by Matt Rhule surprised me.  You don't trust your offense can get you the 6, 7, or 8 points on that possession, so you'll force them to score 8 on the next?  Fucking brain dead.

[morvillz7z]

I'm not gonna lie i had this bookmarked and set as a reminder on my phone today:

<.....> thats why you don't bet on a game with teams that are not playing for anything.

quote from Hueristic; https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5179018.msg53474379#msg53474379

Law abiding citizen here, going against teams that are out of playoff contention, or have very little chance of making it, like the Patriots.

I have Bucs, Ravens, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, and Rams to win @4.49

edit;

Rams to win  Rams to win Rams to win Rams to win

[tyKiwanuka]

I have Bucs, Ravens, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, and Rams to win @4.49

I opposed you on the Colts win, but just for value reasons, in the end Colts should win this I just don't see these teams that far apart as the odds suggest, after the game I will probably have to eat my words^^ Also thought about betting on the Pats, but I think one can get 2.5+ for them inplay (as you will get 2.5+ for Dolphins inplay most likely).

Other than that I continued my dog day with Washington ML. If the Giants can beat Seattle on the road with McCoy, then WAS can beat them at home with Haskins as well. He just needs to take care of the football and their defense will do the rest.

Eagles I find a bit high as well. Lots of that is based on their good performance against the Saints last week, but maybe they can keep some momentum going into Phoenix and they still have some PO hopes The ARZ defense concerns me a bit though. If they play like last week against the Giants, then goodbye Eagles



Lets hope at least one dog bites.

[ralle14]

I have a similar 6 leg parlay but instead of the Dolphins and Rams I got the Vikings and Seahawks @5.25.

For my survivor picks I got the Titans and the Steelers was thinking of playing the Ravens this week but I had to look for alternatives since i'm running out of options for the final week.

[ChiBitCTy]

Well it's been a brutal day for me in both of my fantasy football leagues ( wheelz1200 I don't want to hear a word about this from you lol ).  In the semi-finals and all my injuries/suspensions have caught up with me.  Currently just hate watching the Bears and hoping they lose.

I am not feeling great about the afternoon games but I do kinda like KC -3  vs the Saints.  I kinda figured Brees could be a bit rusty and they will be with out Thomas.  Any thoughts on this game?