🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[suchmoon]

Well they are certainly trying, it would seem.

LOL this is like some low-budget scifi movie where Bengals switched bodies with Steelers.

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[wheelz1200]

This is unbelievable Steelers about to go scoreless while Bengals up 17 in the first half.

If Steelers lose this one rip to the guy that's the only one alive on nitrogen's biggest survivor pool(tweet).

Wow this person is sweating bullets.  They got it down to a one touchdown game but with that on the line this was the worst possible scenario to start the game.  Any given Sunday (monday)

[xhomerx10]

This is unbelievable Steelers about to go scoreless while Bengals up 17 in the first half.

If Steelers lose this one rip to the guy that's the only one alive on nitrogen's biggest survivor pool(tweet).

 Any time I've ever placed a bet when the Steelers play the Bengals, The Steelers f#$% me over.  They're my team but... damn.  I can't watch this; I'm going to bed.

[nutildah]

Any time I've ever placed a bet when the Steelers play the Bengals, The Steelers f#$% me over.  They're my team but... damn.  I can't watch this; I'm going to bed.

Oh, so its your fault. There suchmoon, now you know who to blame.

Well this 3rd string QB turned out to be nothing what I expected... Bengals D has been surprisingly tight as well.

[xxjumperxx]

I lost my fantasy football matchup for the last step to make it into the money... by 5 PPR Points... 

It was my mistake, for some dumb reason I started Wayne Gallmann instead of David Johnson...
He had Claypool left and scored enough to beat my team...

Shit, that hurts...

On Topic:
Steelers are crumbling right towards Playoff time, sad thing to see...

[ChiBitCTy]

This is unbelievable Steelers about to go scoreless while Bengals up 17 in the first half.

If Steelers lose this one rip to the guy that's the only one alive on nitrogen's biggest survivor pool(tweet).

Wow this person is sweating bullets.  They got it down to a one touchdown game but with that on the line this was the worst possible scenario to start the game.  Any given Sunday (monday)

This is definitely a bad beat right here, but that's what makes these survivor pools so difficult.  I remember two years ago when the Vikings were playing the Bills and the Bills and the time were absolutely god awful and the vikings were very good.  I wanted a guaranteed pick and the Bills ended up winning..was like the worst loss in decades betting wise ( some sort of metrics were used to determine that, that I can't remember).

Last night the Steelers showed who I think they really are.  This is the Kansas City Chiefs league!

[tyKiwanuka]

Law abiding citizen here, going against teams that are out of playoff contention, or have very little chance of making it, like the Patriots.

Saw this tweet today:


Source: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks/status/1339176528400293893

And this kind of confirms my general feeling regarding teams that basically have nothing play for vs teams that have everything to play for. As in every other sport American Football has a mental component and it keeps growing with all the (social) media coverage increasing year by year; you just can't hide and every move/mistake you make is surveilled and publicly discussed. This adds a lot of pressure, if you have something to lose and players/teams can get very tight under these circumstances.
The divisional matchups at the end of a season don't help the PO contenders, since every division opponent likes to spoil the party, while having nothing to lose themselves. They probably even play a bit harder and more motivated in these scenarios

-

Reminder: There will be NFL this Friday (Saints - Vikings) and a triple header on Saturday (Lions - Bucs / Cardinals - 49ers / Raiders - Dolphins).

[suchmoon]

And this kind of confirms my general feeling regarding teams that basically have nothing play for vs teams that have everything to play for. As in every other sport American Football has a mental component and it keeps growing with all the (social) media coverage increasing year by year; you just can't hide and every move/mistake you make is surveilled and publicly discussed. This adds a lot of pressure, if you have something to lose and players/teams can get very tight under these circumstances.
The divisional matchups at the end of a season don't help the PO contenders, since every division opponent likes to spoil the party, while having nothing to lose themselves. They probably even play a bit harder and more motivated in these scenarios

ATS doesn't mean the underdog teams win though, it might just mean that bookies are taking the piss when setting up the spreads. I think morvillz7z was doing ML and it was a good bet except for the damn Jets. At >4 odds I'd prefer that kind of multi over any single underdog >4 bet.

[nutildah]

Reminder: There will be NFL this Friday (Saints - Vikings) and a triple header on Saturday (Lions - Bucs / Cardinals - 49ers / Raiders - Dolphins).

I think the most interesting game is Raiders / Dolphins but its hard to see an obvious bet on the line or game, for that matter. On one hand, Tagovailoa is young and inexperienced and may feel overwhelmed with pressure as playoffs near. On the other hand, Dolphins cover the spread 28.6% more of the time than the Raiders.

Whether Carr or Mariota starts, Raiders are perfectly capable of winning this one, which is why I'm just gonna sit this one out.

Arizona / SF also looks like it could be a good game as the Cardinals would like to win this one to keep playoff hopes alive, and SF could basically care less (relatively speaking). Both teams only have 1 win a piece since Nov. 1st. SF has a ton of injuries, including QB Mullens who was just ruled out for the season yesterday, meaning Beathard will start.

Huh. I just logged in to my sportsbook and this game isn't in there. I'm gonna have a look at the moneyline for it tomorrow; it might be compelling, if they have it.

[suchmoon]

Cardinals ML is ~1.4-1.5 on a few sites I checked.

Dolphins ML ~1.6, which is quite bizarre because I have a +5.5 spread at 1.5... not sure how or why I placed that bet.

[tyKiwanuka]

ATS doesn't mean the underdog teams win though, it might just mean that bookies are taking the piss when setting up the spreads.

Yes, morvillz7z had ML bets, but iirc there was some discussion earlier as well, that you better not place any bets on teams out of PO contention, because they will go for better draft position etc.. And even in sports betting in general you have often hear this reasoning of teams having nothing to play for. But these are all pro athletes and despite them earning big money, they want to win, they want to compete* And it's easier to perform, when no one expects anything from you anyway.

These ATS stats do include ML dog wins though, but are not explicitly mentioned. And when a dog beats the spread, you can normally assume this being a close game, unless you have high-ish double digit HC's. So you will at least have some near heart-attacks when going blindly on the must-win teams.

*The Jets beating the Rams was a huge surprise to me and I thought till the very end they would still (being told to) lose this. I think they tried, but they failed

At >4 odds I'd prefer that kind of multi over any single underdog >4 bet.

Agree From a psychological point of view, it's a bit harder to swallow the fav-multi losing imo, because somehow you think it's more likely to win this than a single >4 underdog - although they have the same probability. As much as the athletes have their mental game, betting people have to face mental battles as well

[suchmoon]

Yes, morvillz7z had ML bets, but iirc there was some discussion earlier as well, that you better not place any bets on teams out of PO contention, because they will go for better draft position etc.. And even in sports betting in general you have often hear this reasoning of teams having nothing to play for. But these are all pro athletes and despite them earning big money, they want to win, they want to compete* And it's easier to perform, when no one expects anything from you anyway.

Football being such a tough sport I think there are probably other factors at play here, and might even be more significant that playoff motivation and whatnot. More injuries at the end of the season for example - higher-ranked teams might be more affected. Divisional games vs games with less-acquainted teams. Cold weather.

[ChiBitCTy]

I'm curious, at what point in the week do you all place your bets?  I will admit of a bad habit and that is normally placing my bets Sunday morning about an hour or so before kick off.  Now I know this is not the smartest approach of attack.  I however really am not gambling savvy enough to know when to place bets. I suppose a seasoned gambler looks at all the lines the moment they are released that then just follows them throughout the week and depending on certain things ( injuries, covid news etc) they may place a bet early or wait until game day.  I do know it can also be advantageous to place bets at times right at the open.  For example I bet the Browns game this past week and I did it the moment they had the coin toss.  Since Cleveland lost the line dropped from I believe -6.5 to -4.5.  The browns were still the easy favorite so I was all over that -4.5 spread.  I wonder if this kind of spread drop due to a coin toss loss is very prevalent?

[DireWolfM14]

I think the most interesting game is Raiders / Dolphins but its hard to see an obvious bet on the line or game, for that matter. On one hand, Tagovailoa is young and inexperienced and may feel overwhelmed with pressure as playoffs near. On the other hand, Dolphins cover the spread 28.6% more of the time than the Raiders.

Whether Carr or Mariota starts, Raiders are perfectly capable of winning this one, which is why I'm just gonna sit this one out.

If Mariota starts, I'm going to wager a small amount on the Raiders.  Carr's a good enough quarterback, but they don't use him in the run-option the way Gruden uses Mariota.  Strange really, because I don't think Carr is incapable of running the ball like Mariota.  But Mariota throws a wildcard onto the field, and that may be enough of an edge to win this one.  The Dolphins however, are in control of their destiny, if they can win out they'll get a slot.  The Raiders hopes aren't dead yet, they also need to win but they need Baltimore to lose twice and Miami to lose next week as well.  Baltimore has NYG and the Bengals coming up, soooo...  Yeah.

Arizona / SF also looks like it could be a good game as the Cardinals would like to win this one to keep playoff hopes alive, and SF could basically care less (relatively speaking). Both teams only have 1 win a piece since Nov. 1st. SF has a ton of injuries, including QB Mullens who was just ruled out for the season yesterday, meaning Beathard will start.

Bethard will come out and play like a mad-man...  For two possessions. 

Yes, morvillz7z had ML bets, but iirc there was some discussion earlier as well, that you better not place any bets on teams out of PO contention, because they will go for better draft position etc.. And even in sports betting in general you have often hear this reasoning of teams having nothing to play for. But these are all pro athletes and despite them earning big money, they want to win, they want to compete* And it's easier to perform, when no one expects anything from you anyway.

Football being such a tough sport I think there are probably other factors at play here, and might even be more significant that playoff motivation and whatnot. More injuries at the end of the season for example - higher-ranked teams might be more affected. Divisional games vs games with less-acquainted teams. Cold weather.

I'm a blooming newb when it comes to sports betting so I may be off kilter here, but I think applying this standard of gambling logic to football could be misleading.  Football players are wired differently.  They're not just athletes, they're gladiators.  They have a chip on their shoulder, they're always out to prove something.  They seem to get themselves worked up and motivate to an extent that few team-sport players seem to achieve.  I don't think I've ever seen a team or a coach give up on a season just to secure the first round draft pick.  More accurately would be assume that any team with a losing record would love to spoil the record of a high-flying winning team, they look at it like it's their playoff game.  Always something to prove.

I know I said I was gonna sit-out the Monday night game, but sometime during the second quarter I lost my ability to resist.



Thank you Bengals!  Back in black, baby!

The Steelers are now my favorite team to bet against.  I really think they're going to drop 5 in a row to finish the season.  They've got the Colts this weekend, and the Browns next.  I'm looking forward to watching both of these games, they should be a lot of fun.

The other game that's slated to be a lot of fun this weekend; Tennessee at Green Bay.  I won't make the call on this one until the game is underway, but the bookies are giving the Packers the advantage.  The Pack is locked into the playoffs, but they still want the top seed and the first-round bye. Right now it's theirs to lose.

BTW, ESPN's playoff machine is full swing.  Here's my prediction for Wild-Card weekend:

[suchmoon]

I'm curious, at what point in the week do you all place your bets?

I tend to bet mostly about a week in advance. I might pick up a few last minute bets but almost never during the game.

Injuries etc can go either way. I might lose a few bets due to some freak last minute circumstances but I can win some too... and in general I don't expect to make money gambling, let alone sports gambling with the outrageous bookie margins and massive data analytics efforts conspiring against me. It's just a way to make a prediction and measure how wrong I was, and as I mentioned earlier in the thread - having something else to be engaged in rather than watching hours of ads.

[DireWolfM14]

I'm curious, at what point in the week do you all place your bets?

in general I don't expect to make money gambling

^This.

If you look at it as another form of entertainment, you won't be disappointed.  Some folks are able to consistently make enough money to earn a living, but I would guess that requires a lot of time for research and a lot of discipline.  I find myself lacking both.  I'll be happy if I break even by the end of the season.

I just went through my history on the sportsbook I use, and I'm 5 out of 25...  20%.  Currently I'm up 4mBTC on the season, micro-betting on EPL and NFL games.  Before the win I had on Monday night I was net even with the sportsbook.  I had to go out-of-pocket to bet on the Bengals. 

Anyway to answer ChiBitCTy's question directly, I prefer to place bets just before the game or during play.  With the NFL specifically there so many intangibles that can affect play, that I find it easier to make predictions during play.  I only do that if the game is broadcast in my local market, and I can watch it live.  Read above and you'll know why this is NOT financial advice.

[nutildah]

I ended up putting in a bet on Cardinals ML for 1.43x. I'm also looking at Carolina vs. Washington. If Alex Smith comes back then I would take Was. -1, but I don't really care for this Haskins guy. Went out celebrating at a strip club after his last performance, got fined $40k, wasn't even wearing a mask. The worst part of it was he had lost that day's game.

https://nypost.com/2020/12/24/dwayne-haskins-may-be-washingtons-starter-despite-stripper-party/

[morvillz7z]

I ended up putting in a bet on Cardinals ML for 1.43x.

Same, i'm very high on the Cardinals this week, i've secured -4.5 early, don't want to see the line move close to 6.5.
Murray is a nightmare matchup for banged-up 49ers, who will also be without Mullens, Mostert and Deebo on offense, so yeah.
I'm not sure why SF are risking with Kittle here, a meaningless game, dude's been out for a while with foot injury, why play him? I don't see him make a difference with Beathard at QB anyway.


edit; CARDINALS WYD 

I don't really care for this Haskins guy. Went out celebrating at a strip club after his last performance, got fined $40k, wasn't even wearing a mask. The worst part of it was he had lost that day's game.

Does anyone know what's the exact NFL protocol for covid violations? Broncos were left high and dry not allowed to have any QBs vs. Saints a couple of weeks ago, and this dude has been practicing through the week and likely to start on Saturday (less than a week), i mean what is that?

[DireWolfM14]

Okay, here's what I'm thinking for this afternoon's game:

New Orleans -4.5 @ 1.78
Over 48.5 @ 1.74
Brees Passing TDs over 2.5 @ 2.28

That last one seems like a really good deal, the Viking's passing defense isn't likely to prevent three passing touchdowns.

In other news; the Titans have listed linebacker Will Compton as doubtful, the injury listed is "Haircut."

[tyKiwanuka]

I don't know what to play in Saints game. It's hard to see the Saints not winning today, but I am not so sure, whether they will able to beat the HC, which stands at 6.5. MIN still has some tiny PO hopes, so they should be interested in this one. I see lots of talks about how the Saints defense will shut down the Vikings running game, but they were able to get 162yds/201yds rushing yards against #1/#3 rushing defenses Tampa/Seattle, so I think they will do just fine offensively.
This is all about the Saints offense vs the poor Vikings defense. Brees was doing ok against the Chiefs, but he can't be at 100% already. The more I think about this game, the more I get the feeling the Vikings will win this - if they show up; they have been a bit hot and cold this season. But I'll pass on placing a bet.

I'm curious, at what point in the week do you all place your bets?

If you know a sport/league inside out, then you should place your bets as soon as odds come out, since you will find the most value then. The nearer you get to kick-off, the more matured the odds are. As suchmoon said, you will have bad luck here and there with injuries etc. not going your way, but this evens out longterm, so no problem.

If you just have average knowledge, it doesn't matter imo, since you most likely have no edge anyway. I would even say, it's better to wait in this scenario so that you have all information available once you place the bet.

As I said in the past, the best way is to not have any prematch bets at all, but to master the inplay game. And this goes for every sport, not just NFL. But this takes a) a lot of time and b) a lot of your time


With two weeks to go, I checked my outright bets again:

Cardinals over 7.5 @1.84 (they had 5 wins last season and I expect them to improve further, they have one of the easiest schedules with Washington, Lions, Panthers, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots (sorry Pats fans^^), Giants, Rams²)
Bills over 9 @1.87 (Easy division this year, kept most of their players, had 10 last year)
Carolina under 5.5 @2.21 (not expecting anything from them this season and 6 is a lot, when you are likely to go 0-6 in your division already)
Raiders over 7.5 @2.04 (I think Raiders will be good this season, don't ask me why)
Vikings over 9 @2.13 (They will win NFC North imo, last season 10 wins and they will be better this season overall)
Patriots under 9 @1.62 (so many players opted out, no Brady, getting 10 wins will be super hard, 9 is a push then, but I am expecting less)
Giants over 6 @1.84 (fanboy, lol)

Cardinals 8-6 -> won
Bills 11-3 -> won
Carolina 4-10: They still play @Washington and then host the Saints in week 17, I hope they don't win both
Raiders 7-7: They host the Dolphins tomorrow and then play @Broncos, could still win.
Vikings 6-8 -> lost, a bit disappointed with them, but as said above, they were good in some games, only to have poor losses the next game.
Patriots 6-8 -> won
Giants 5-9: With @Ravens coming up and then playing the Cowboys at home, this would be a push at best, but Dallas has found their rhythm lately, so looks more like a loss, though Giants are 1.65-ish fav.

If I trust on the Raiders getting one more win and Panthers not winning both their remaining games, I would go 5-2 or 5-1-1 with these bets (always think positive^^)