Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[Branko]

Zero percent chance. Again, there are a million reasons why that would not happen. Definitely things that do not change "in a blink".

Last time it did:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War

Conveniently forgetting to mention the fact that there was no Poland and no Ukraine a few years back. In 1798 Poland was invaded by Russia, Germany (Prussia) and Austria and wiped from the maps. This wasn't accepted by all countries. For instance, the Ottoman Empire continued to recognize Poland as a country. During that period, all occupants conscripted Polish people into their armies, changed names of towns and streets and forbid the use of polish language in schools. When Poland got back its independence in 1918 and expected the return of its former territories, but Ukraine put a claim to Lviv, which used to be a Polish city with a lot of Poles living there. In 1772 Lviv was taken over by Austria and became the capital of the Habsburg Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria, so it was natural for Poland to put a claim to it once the occupying forces left.

Once you know a little bit about history of these lands you start to understand why there was a conflict between Ukraine, that formed a sovereign republic in the same year (1918) and Poland, that saw another country forming in its old borders, pretty much in the same way that Donbas is trying to become a republic within the old borders of Ukraine.

However Russians will try to make it look, they were always an instigator of the conflicts in Europe and have always worked against a number of countries, like Poland and Lithuania. There was no Ukraine at the time, but now that it exists it's also an enemy of Russia and it will remain this way, because Russia can't exist without plotting against its neighbors.
Read about Treaty of the Three Black Eagles and Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact among many other similar "agreements" set in motion by Russians.

Conveniently forgetting to mention that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth occupation of Moscow took place between 1610 and 1612 during the Polish–Muscovite War, when the Kremlin was occupied by a Polish-Lithuanian garrison under the command of Stanisław Żółkiewski.

See? I can do it too

[1715599428]

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[coolcoinz]

Conveniently forgetting to mention that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth occupation of Moscow took place between 1610 and 1612 during the Polish–Muscovite War, when the Kremlin was occupied by a Polish-Lithuanian garrison under the command of Stanisław Żółkiewski.

See? I can do it too

You forgot to add that in 1013 Poland attacked Kievan Rus.

In your previous post you wrote about a conflict in the 20th century and and I've explained the root of it. That war doesn't in any way explain Russian propaganda that tries to make it look like Poland is helping Ukraine just to invade it and take back a part of it that it used to own in the 19th century.

Post WW2 countries are completely different from what they used to be before the war. Is going back to the middle ages the latest trick of Russian propagandists, because no other ways of justifying their actions have worked?

[suchmoon]

Conveniently forgetting to mention that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth occupation of Moscow took place between 1610 and 1612 during the Polish–Muscovite War, when the Kremlin was occupied by a Polish-Lithuanian garrison under the command of Stanisław Żółkiewski.

See? I can do it too

Do what? You're just posting random shit that has nothing to do with Russia's invasion into Ukraine.

[BADecker]

Conveniently forgetting to mention that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth occupation of Moscow took place between 1610 and 1612 during the Polish–Muscovite War, when the Kremlin was occupied by a Polish-Lithuanian garrison under the command of Stanisław Żółkiewski.

See? I can do it too

Do what? You're just posting random shit that has nothing to do with Russia's invasion into Ukraine.

The so-called invasion was simply an appropriate response to the threat of the US bringing the Ukraine into NATO, and all kinds of corruption into the Ukraine. Probably Hunter Biden is the real cause because of his investments in the Ukraine.

Think about this. What would the US do if Russia made Mexico its ally, and started improving the Mexican government and military and financial position in the world? Same thing with the Ukraine... the enemy walking right up to the door.

[Newlifebtc]

Has the united nations intervened yet ? Is this not the reason they built this up ?
They have Russian bodies amongst them, it's okay to stop the war now a lot have happened and died.
War is evil!
If this is not done by the united nations will they see the body scrapped off because they have failed to come as mediator between this countries.

[Branko]

Has the united nations intervened yet ? Is this not the reason they built this up ?
They have Russian bodies amongst them, it's okay to stop the war now a lot have happened and died.
War is evil!
If this is not done by the united nations will they see the body scrapped off because they have failed to come as mediator between this countries.

It was flawed from start, because few countries have veto power, and those are biggest troublemakers at same time

[suchmoon]

Meanwhile in the real world the non-existent Bayraktars continue to cause trouble. Two Russian boats have been sent where Russian boats tend to go:

[LTU_btc]

Maybe President Zelensky doesn't understand that NATO and America, are only good at causing or aiding war, they hardly aid rehabilitation and reconstruction, after the war.

Pledging Armour tanks, Assault helicopters, and Armor tank destroyers is not what matters most, but would they also donate, and bring back the lost infrastructures and economy?

Please no more whataboutism because this war wasn't caused by NATO and US, Russia did. In perfect scenario Russia will have to pay reparations to Ukraine after war to rebuild country. But more likely that locked Russian reserve assets will be used for it.

Zero percent chance. Again, there are a million reasons why that would not happen. Definitely things that do not change "in a blink".

Last time it did:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War

So what? You really comapre world 100 years ago and current things? Just because something happened between these countries 100 or 200 years ago it doesn't shows that Poland have intentions to invade  Western part of Ukraine. It doesn't even make sense when Poland is giving to Ukraine billions worth hmanitarian and military aid. Maybe relationships between these countries wasn't easy historically, but they have one common enemy.

[paxmao]

"Rumourology" update: Putin may be considering declaring "war" officially or making up some law that allows mandatory conscription or call to reservists. If that happens, it would send a clear signal of the issues at the front and the massive loss of professional soldiers.

What is happening in Belgorod (Russia). Seems that a bridge in there is currently under maintenance? Maybe they are cleaning the road to keep it shiny?
https://t.me/zhest_belgorod/11242

Or maybe there is some "bridge bug" in the region... seems to affect also railway bridges
https://t.me/zhest_belgorod/11250


Curiously, the quickest route from Kurst to Kharkiv passes through this. One could think that the Ukraine- Putin's Russia war is actually getting to be in Russia.

Zero percent chance. Again, there are a million reasons why that would not happen. Definitely things that do not change "in a blink".

Last time it did:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War

Thanks for further proving my point. Unless you consider 100 years "a blink" - you know we are in 2022 and there has been a WW II and a Cold War I after that? (my guess is that we will have a Cold War II after this war, that is, if the 1st really ever finished for Russia).

An "invasion by Poland" would mean a NATO intervening, that could only be pictured if Putin was taking full control of Ukraine and somehow the US decided to create some kind of buffer and even in that case it would have too many implications for safety - Poland would be burning all its partners and allies...

Nah.

Meanwhile in the real world the non-existent Bayraktars continue to cause trouble. Two Russian boats have been sent where Russian boats tend to go:

There are several reports of Ukraine's successful attacks at Zmiiny Island. Seems that anything near Odessa is a potential coral reef habitat.

Maybe President Zelensky doesn't understand that NATO and America, are only good at causing or aiding war, they hardly aid rehabilitation and reconstruction, after the war.

Pledging Armour tanks, Assault helicopters, and Armor tank destroyers is not what matters most, but would they also donate, and bring back the lost infrastructures and economy?

Yes, for the price. Weapons are also not "aid", they are paid, too

Interesting map

It is not interesting really, I could show you the second most spoken languages across all Europe... mostly English. Do we have to fear UK invading? I would ask for a source but it does not really matter.

Branko, again trying to find confirmation after taking a side?

Weapons are certainly aid when you need them. They are given under a "lend and lease", but the payments may be condoned, left in suspense, reduced... It is unlikely that Ukraine could repay ever, everyone sending civil and military aids knows that.

...
I am not aware of any indication that Poland actually wants to occupy Ukraine. I have been aware that Putin has been wanting to invade Ukraine for years (decades?), and has been making incremental steps in invading Ukraine since Obama was president.

Poland has no interest in Ukraine, Russia does.

Probably since 1994, but they had to much on the plate.

On 4 January 1994, President of the Republic of Lithuania Algirdas Brazauskas sent a letter to NATO Secretary General Manfred Worner expressing the desire of Lithuania to become a NATO member. The letter stated the position based on the agreement on Lithuania’s aspiration to become a member of NATO signed by all parliamentary parties

https://kam.lt/en/international_cooperation_1089/nato_1282/lithuania_on_its_way_to_nato.html

[suchmoon]

There are several reports of Ukraine's successful attacks at Zmiiny Island. Seems that anything near Odessa is a potential coral reef habitat.

Today Russian MOD claimed to have shot down 3 more TB2s around that island... if you were to believe them, for some inexplicable reason they did it after their boats were destroyed.

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2022-05-02/427873-minoborony_rf_soobschaet_ob_unichtozhenii_ukrainskogo_istrebitelya_v_rayone_slavyanska

But of course it's all bullshit because there is another video of Bayraktar destroying SAM equipment on the island a couple of days ago:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521234811641372678

So a possible sequence of events is... Ukrainians figure out that the island is defended by a short range SAM, safely get rid of it from a outside its operating distance, then two boats arrive to check out what's going on and get sent to the Russian boat gathering place, Russian MOD lies as they usually do.


Anyway, I feel like I'm unfairly biased against the glorious 2nd best military in the world (or at least in the unrecognized People's Republics). Here it is actually shooting at its greatest enemy - water:

[Tash]

The madness in the world

[Branko]

The madness in the world

I don't get it...but I found some double standards:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-24/scott-morrison-china-naval-base-solomon-islands-red-line/101011710

Distance between Solomon Islands and Australia is almost as between Russia and Portugal

[paxmao]

The madness in the world

I don't get it...but I found some double standards:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-24/scott-morrison-china-naval-base-solomon-islands-red-line/101011710

Distance between Solomon Islands and Australia is almost as between Russia and Portugal

Perhaps. Speaking of asymmetry, Australia is unlikely to invade the SI or China. However is a major exporter of raw materials to China and they may not want to play with the other kid if they start taking over the playground. I assume that a red line on this case means that there are conversations ongoing that would be stopped in the case China progresses the deal.

It seems that Putin's red lines are drawn in blood.

[cornhodlr]

The madness in the world

Like an episode of the simpsons the keyboard warriors here will still be commenting on this thread when a missile lands outside their front door unexpectedly.

[paxmao]

The madness in the world

Like an episode of the simpsons the keyboard warriors here will still be commenting on this thread when a missile lands outside their front door unexpectedly.

I am a keyboard pacifist. Not a naive style, all wars are bad, people should be happy and friendly, etc... I just do not see any point on this war in which the only ones that will win are the ones that are actually not involved. It is pointless to loose as much as Putin is loosing for nearly no gain. It cannot be expected that Ukraine does not fight to confront either.

All this is stupid. Do not die for Putin.

[suchmoon]

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Horseface Lavrov stepped into deep poo-poo, twice:

I could be wrong, but Hitler also had Jewish blood. Zelensky being Jewish means absolutely nothing. Wise Jewish people say that the most ardent anti-Semites are usually Jews.

After a predictable outrage from Israel, he apologized... j/k, of course he doubled down because Putinists are never wrong:

We noticed the anti-historical statements of Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, which largely explain the course of the current Israeli government to support the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv.

At this rate, they'll start a special denazification operation in Golan Heights soon.

The irony of course is that Israel is (was?) one of the few "neutral friends" of Russia, i.e. not very keen on sanctions despite pressure from the US. I have a feeling this might change.

[af_newbie]

Zero percent chance. Again, there are a million reasons why that would not happen. Definitely things that do not change "in a blink".

Last time it did:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War

Conveniently forgetting to mention the fact that there was no Poland and no Ukraine a few years back. In 1798 Poland was invaded by Russia, Germany (Prussia) and Austria and wiped from the maps. This wasn't accepted by all countries. For instance, the Ottoman Empire continued to recognize Poland as a country. During that period, all occupants conscripted Polish people into their armies, changed names of towns and streets and forbid the use of polish language in schools. When Poland got back its independence in 1918 and expected the return of its former territories, but Ukraine put a claim to Lviv, which used to be a Polish city with a lot of Poles living there. In 1772 Lviv was taken over by Austria and became the capital of the Habsburg Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria, so it was natural for Poland to put a claim to it once the occupying forces left.

Once you know a little bit about history of these lands you start to understand why there was a conflict between Ukraine, that formed a sovereign republic in the same year (1918) and Poland, that saw another country forming in its old borders, pretty much in the same way that Donbas is trying to become a republic within the old borders of Ukraine.

However Russians will try to make it look, they were always an instigator of the conflicts in Europe and have always worked against a number of countries, like Poland and Lithuania. There was no Ukraine at the time, but now that it exists it's also an enemy of Russia and it will remain this way, because Russia can't exist without plotting against its neighbors.
Read about Treaty of the Three Black Eagles and Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact among many other similar "agreements" set in motion by Russians.

Conveniently forgetting to mention that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth occupation of Moscow took place between 1610 and 1612 during the Polish–Muscovite War, when the Kremlin was occupied by a Polish-Lithuanian garrison under the command of Stanisław Żółkiewski.

See? I can do it too

By your logic, Poles and Lithuanians have solid grounds for annexing Moscow oblast. LOL.

Poland will never attack Ukraine because there are millions of Ukrainians on their territory that they are already helping.

It is a Russian (or pro-Russian moron's) wet dream to stick a wedge between Poles and Ukrainians.

I have two words for you: Katyn and Holodomor. Russian imperialism is what all the civilized world is fighting right now.

Think Ivan, think.

[paxmao]

...

At this rate, they'll start a special denazification operation in Golan Heights soon.

The irony of course is that Israel is (was?) one of the few "neutral friends" of Russia, i.e. not very keen on sanctions despite pressure from the US. I have a feeling this might change.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is making a barbecue using a munitions convoy.

https://twitter.com/donikroman/status/1521555508058075137

This is the reality of war. It is not a videogame, it is not a place to earn money or progress. It is a hotdog factory.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1521043273367887874

and made a few more Russian Heroes that did not sell their vehicles to me for 100 USD on time. Do not die for Putin, your country is not being threatened, there is no reason to be burnt alive.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1521548104826298369

[DaRude]

“In a dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on working out specific agreements that would exclude any further NATO moves eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to Russian territory,” Putin said.
He charged that “the threats are mounting on our western border,” with NATO placing its military infrastructure closer to Russia and offered the West to engage in substantive talks on the issue, adding that Moscow would need not just verbal assurances, but “legal guarantees.”
“We aren't demanding any special conditions for ourselves and realize that any agreements must take interests of Russia and all Euro-Atlantic countries into account,” Putin said. “A calm and stable situation must be ensured for all and is needed for all without exclusion.”
Putin's statement came a day after he sternly warned NATO against deploying its troops and weapons to Ukraine, saying it represented a red line for Russia and would trigger a strong response.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-worried-ukrainian-military-buildup-81487169

So this was back on December 1, 2021 and we all know how that turned out, US pretty much said that Russia is not allowed to have national security interests in any country and NATO will expand anywhere it wishes. Because freedoms and such (except where it's not convenient for US like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Myanmar, Turkey etc...) But now in interesting turn of events for religious? Biden

Pope Francis quoting Putin "It is necessary to put an end to the irresponsible policy of intervening from outside and building democracy in other countries, ignoring the traditions of the peoples."...Francis suggested that perhaps “NATO barking at Russia’s gate” had caused Mr. Putin to invade his neighbor, which doesn’t belong to the alliance. “

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pope-francis-blames-nato-russia-ukraine-11651598988

I mean we have the Pope himself directly saying that Ukraine doesn't belong to the alliance. Will be an awkward Sunday mass for Biden. Not sure how this could be spun any other way, is it time to bring freedom and democracy to Vatican??


The only way for US to save face is to get rid of Putin at the cost of Ukrainian lives. But back then, from the same article Zelensky himself pretty much admitting that Ukraine had no chance against Russia

...“We must tell the truth — we wouldn't be able to stop the war without direct talks with Russia,” Zelenskyy said.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-worried-ukrainian-military-buildup-81487169

But what do you know apparently the ghost of Kiev, and the guy who told the Russian ship to fuck itself, before surrendering, are super warriors who are able to hold Russia back! Well that, and little help...

Ukraine supplied 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons by US...and its allies had also supplied Ukraine with 60,000 anti-tank systems.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-supplied-25000-anti-aircraft-weapons-by-us-allies-us-general-2022-04-07

Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., noted the U.S. has sent roughly 5,000 Javelins and 1,400 Stingers to Ukraine, comprising 33% and 25% of their respective stockpiles. Sen. John Boozman, R-Ark., described the state of the missile inventory as “very thin.”

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-05-03/ukraine-russia-war-weapons-stockpiles-austin-javelins-stingers-5884318.html

It's from a month back, even with only the "official" numbers that's like what, 10 anti-tank missiles for each Rusisan tank? Now we wait how Russia will reply to such escalations, either folds or doubles down and escalate by mobilizing, and what will NATO do then? The world inches closer to midnight, Ukraine suffering huge losses now and stands to loose exponentially more. Anyone left who still thinks this is not a complete failure for everyone? 8yr preparation of Ukrainian army tells me that this was not a surprise for anyone, was just a matter of time

[TwitchySeal]

So this was back on December 1, 2021 and we all know how that turned out, US pretty much said that Russia is not allowed to have national security interests in any country and NATO will expand anywhere it wishes. Because freedoms and such (except where it's not convenient for US like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Myanmar, Turkey etc...) \

Actually what US said was "No, we will not tell another country that they can never ever join our alliance no matter what."