Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[be.open]

Yeah, I just don't see any reason why the Russians would want it, especially since the peeps in that are are likely to be much less friendly (even in the post Zenensky period.)  I don't really fully buy the argument of 'de-nazification' which strikes me as mostly a PR-friendly excuse.  The benefits of chasing the Nazis into the West is probably not worth the hassles, costs, and risks, and they would just back-fill when the area is vacated anyway.

I think we will soon see how events will develop in the West of Ukraine, because until the complete liberation of Donbass this is not a paramount issue and there are many interested parties, including Poland, Romania, Hungary and even Moldova. I'm not even sure that the West of Ukraine is now subordinate to Kyiv.

You still do not see it. Putin has been brought into a war that is a trap.

Do you now mean that Russia has become a victim of external manipulation and is not to blame for the invasion of Ukraine? This is something new from you.
...

Thanks for recognising that it is an invasion (not a liberation, denazification nor anything else but an invasion - your own words).

- Nothing is happening
- Just an operation
- This is an invasion       < ----- you are here  
- This is a war between Russia and Ukraine.
- This is a war of aggression by Putin.
- This is a crime.

The topic is called invasion, technically it is an invasion, in fact it is a unique military special operation. Here we are discussing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this is the military-political aspect of a larger hybrid economic-information war of the entire West against Russia. The economic aspect of the confrontation can be discussed in the economy section of this forum, there is also an interesting story with the European oil embargo following the coal embargo, and a powerful intrigue with paying for gas in rubles to circumvent sanctions. It's the perfect storm.

No, I mean exactly what I wrote: that Putin has been brought into a war that is a trap. He is to blame for the invasion because he decided to invade - he may have decided something else, but he lacks a group of people that can tell him he is wrong and has been fooled into believing he could achieve a quick win. Him and his circle have  started  something they cannot finish. There are winners in this war, Russia is not one of them.

What nonsense, you draw at least premature conclusions, because the operation continues and seems to be quite successful. I would say that in general, things are going great for Russia. You were right about Dvornikov's tactics - they are very simple and effective. Reconnaissance drones, then the work of artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, then tanks under the cover of infantry and front-line aviation. The tactics of parallel short offensives to minimize the front line, in the Donbass, there is a methodical slow grinding of the fortified positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with minimal losses and a compact numerical strength. The most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east have already been destroyed, taken prisoner or bled after two months of continuous fighting, and freshly mobilized reservists come to the eastern front as cannon fodder and I think the Ukrainians who want to die there will soon run out. Russia, the LPR and the DPR are slowly and methodically pressing from the east, and apparently soon they will push through the fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass. What happens next is interesting to me, there are many interested actors and many options for the development of events, and the chances for Russia seem favorable to me.

A peace treaty? Are Ukraine and Russia at war then?  (I think they are, do you?)

Irony apart, there isn't anything like a full defeat, unconditional or conditional or any type of surrender. This is a bear trap and a nasty one.

You demand unconditional surrender from Ukraine while you argue they are not willing to negotiate. I am not sure you what type of deals have you closed in your life - usually someone concedes something and the other concedes as well so everyone is slightly unhappy with the result. In this case, by waging war, I can tell you that both sides are going to be worse off. There is no way the US and Europe are going to let Russia come better-off this war and there is no way Ukraine is going to forget. Needless to say that all the dead civilians and soldiers are not better off.

Of course, I would also prefer a quick and bloodless operation, without unnecessary casualties, destruction and bloodshed. Unfortunately, for this, Ukraine must capitulate, because Russia's policy towards Nazism is characterized by zero tolerance. Russia denounces Nazism and has strong evidence of widespread Nazism in Ukraine. There are serious documentary claims about the work of bio-laboratories in Ukraine. The contents of the bunker near Azovstal have not yet been fully disclosed, but the Azov fighters are already behaving there openly like terrorists, trying to exchange hostages for food by live weight. According to the results of the operation, there will be a court like Nuremberg 2, all those responsible will be punished. The fate of the territories of Ukraine liberated from Nazism will be decided by referendums of local residents following the Kosovo precedent. Everyone will again live a peaceful, calm life, as befits civilized Europeans.

But the biggest problem Putin will now face is not Ukraine. Finland, Sweden and Ukraine are certainly now almost forced to join NATO. Europe will take all steps to reduce or remove energy trading with Russia. Congratulations for your victory.

Scandinavians are much more adequate than Ukrainians and for the most part do not experience Russophobia. There are problems with the adequacy of politicians with a vagina who have fallen under the spell of the masculine image of NATO and make incomprehensible initiatives from which the people of Finland and Sweden are actively perplexed. So the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO is still in question, in Finland there are debates in parliament and it seems that common sense is ready to prevail there.

Ukrainian people will pay a high price for freedom - it should have been much easier, if Russia had a decent leadership.

You can always do something better, it turns out as it turns out. It’s hard for me to blame Putin for something, it seems that his tactics are quite safe for the inhabitants of Russia, and his strategy is fully consistent with the interests of Russia as a sovereign state. I am sorry that Putin's actions do not meet your expectations and if they infringe on the anti-Russian interests of Ukraine. Ukraine is free to act as a sovereign state, but Russia is also free to respond to existential threats against itself.

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[decodx]

As Sri Aurobindo Ghose said, "Imperfect is joy that is not shared by all". I am hurt by the suffering of the Ukrainian people, who, due to their stupidity, are forced to experience all the horrors of war. I hope after the operation Ukraine will find a new worthy meaning of life, except for hatred for the fraternal Russian people.

Yes. The Ukrainian people will eventually forgive the deluded Russians after this aggression is over, but not before Ukrainian independence and sovereignty are restored. And not before Putin and his Russian bullies are dealt with in a firm and just way that stops his aggressive activities and gives Ukraine the sovereign rights to create a secure future for itself. This is not only possible, it is inevitable. The history books will be telling tales of Ukraine's destruction and disrespect for national sovereignty for decades to come. The Ukrainian people will hold Russia accountable for its actions, which will have lasting consequences for Russia.

[paxmao]

...
[blah blah propaganda talk about nazism...]
...

What nonsense, you draw at least premature conclusions, because the operation continues and seems to be quite successful.

...
[blah blah our military this and than]
...

The fronts are not moving. If any, Ukraine has made some minor advancements and Putin keeps sending unready troops to die for nothing. The number of artillery batteries sent now to Ukraine is starting to range in the hundreds, not to mention air defences and civil support. The tactical situation is looking grim for Putin.

Putin's army is unable to make any decisive advance. What you call grinding is in fact stagnating.

There is a say "strategy eats tactics for breakfast". Putin's psychos tactics are far from anything that you could call effective, but the strategy of the US here is stalling Russia into a war, bleed it and leave an economy that cannot sustain another war. That is being clearly and unquestionably being achieved. While you waste your time defending a poor tactical performance, they use theirs to make the economy of your country sink into oblivion.

Even in the unlikely case of Russia achieving any significant territorial gain, Putin has gone from trying to have less of a border with NATO to looks like it ends in a "victorious" border with NATO of thousands of km both north-east and south-east, an increase military spending in Europe.

This great achievement of uniting your enemies and giving new life to an organisation that was in question (NATO) and creating a thousands of kilometres long border with NATO while making sure your army is shown as unable to quick win against a theoretically inferior enemy is so great that I am starting to suspect that Putin is a CIA agent. No joke, a CIA double agent could not do any better than him.


Your argument Ukraine has to capitulate because Russia has this or that "policy" is interesting. Let me put an example of realistic that is "sorry about gravity but Russia has decided that stuff is going to fall upwards", no need for further discussion.

But the biggest problem Putin will now face is not Ukraine. Finland, Sweden and Ukraine are certainly now almost forced to join NATO. Europe will take all steps to reduce or remove energy trading with Russia. Congratulations for your victory.

Scandinavians are much more adequate than Ukrainians and for the most part do not experience Russophobia.

[blah blah sexist stuff about well established democracies]

So the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO is still in question, in Finland there are debates in parliament and it seems that common sense is ready to prevail there.
...

BTW, Finland may "experience some level of Russophobia" after the recent war you guys had with them. Nothing like the level that will exist in Ukraine for generations of course.

As Sri Aurobindo Ghose said, "Imperfect is joy that is not shared by all". I am hurt by the suffering of the Ukrainian people, who, due to their stupidity, are forced to experience all the horrors of war. I hope after the operation Ukraine will find a new worthy meaning of life, except for hatred for the fraternal Russian people.

Yes. The Ukrainian people will eventually forgive the deluded Russians after this aggression is over, but not before Ukrainian independence and sovereignty are restored. And not before Putin and his Russian bullies are dealt with in a firm and just way ...

I am afraid it does not work like that. When your people and friends are killed, forgiveness is usually out of the table. The English still remember the "Armada Invencible" and they did not even loose.


EDITED to add: Another Russian Navy great victory:

Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny island in Black Sea. Rescue operation ongoing, multiple aircraft, rescue vessels in the area

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-russias-admiral-makarov-warship-26889015

Let's see if this glorious "victory" for Putin confirms. I am just waiting to see what may happen on the 9th.


EDITED to add: Isn't this the drone you just destroyed in your post?

https://twitter.com/RebeccaRambar/status/1522530626557165569

[suchmoon]

If you watch a longer, 2-minute footage, you can see that after the strike at the end of the video, the boat didn't sink, but continued to swim.
Is there any evidence that these boats sank afterwards?

Straw man. Bayraktars can kill tanks, chances are the boat - even if it's still floating - is done for.

The Russian side

Do you seriously believe that "the Russian side" would say "yeah we dropped a bomb on it" even if they did?

AP is the closest we have to an independent investigation.

Glorious Russian military at its best - killing civilians.
Or attacking parks and playgrounds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnTsmj--Ofs

Under this video, one user left a comment, that it was a Russian retaliatory strike on a Ukrainian howitzer.

LOL, that makes it true obviously

Just like every building in Mariupol was Azov HQ.

EDITED to add: Another Russian Navy great victory:

Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny island in Black Sea. Rescue operation ongoing, multiple aircraft, rescue vessels in the area

Another spontaneous combustion. Such unfortunate event.

[decodx]

As Sri Aurobindo Ghose said, "Imperfect is joy that is not shared by all". I am hurt by the suffering of the Ukrainian people, who, due to their stupidity, are forced to experience all the horrors of war. I hope after the operation Ukraine will find a new worthy meaning of life, except for hatred for the fraternal Russian people.

Yes. The Ukrainian people will eventually forgive the deluded Russians after this aggression is over, but not before Ukrainian independence and sovereignty are restored. And not before Putin and his Russian bullies are dealt with in a firm and just way ...

I am afraid it does not work like that. When your people and friends are killed, forgiveness is usually out of the table. The English still remember the "Armada Invencible" and they did not even loose.

People will forgive, it is in their nature, provided the right conditions exist, and that is that those who are responsible bear the consequences for their crime. It is not going to be easy. But it will happen.
But people should never forget what happened and the suffering this war brought on them. How can we as a society ever move on and improve if we allow the past to become a taboo?

[Branko]

People will forgive, it is in their nature, provided the right conditions exist, and that is that those who are responsible bear the consequences for their crime. It is not going to be easy. But it will happen.
But people should never forget what happened and the suffering this war brought on them. How can we as a society ever move on and improve if we allow the past to become a taboo?

Allegiances change fast, Germany was American best friend pretty soon after firebombing their cities
that killed much more civilians than current Russia invasion killed in Ukraine.

Japan went through even worse bombing, yet they're American favorite pet now, and
forgave everything

[paxmao]

People will forgive, it is in their nature, provided the right conditions exist, and that is that those who are responsible bear the consequences for their crime. It is not going to be easy. But it will happen.
But people should never forget what happened and the suffering this war brought on them. How can we as a society ever move on and improve if we allow the past to become a taboo?

Allegiances change fast, Germany was American best friend pretty soon after firebombing their cities
that killed much more civilians than current Russia invasion killed in Ukraine.

Japan went through even worse bombing, yet they're American favorite pet now, and
forgave everything

Germany was never America's best friend, they just saw a tool against communism until they become something worse. Again, US let's Europe play and kill their people and then sound the bell. Anything sounds familiar?

On Japan, I will give you that. US did not kill the emperor and supported reconstruction, so Japanese people, who probably had little support for war, looked on them and manage to compete strongly with the US in a few decades.

[suchmoon]

The glorious Russian military again doing what it does best - i.e. lying.

Family of one of the sailors who died on Moskva can't find out what happened to their son and the fleet command is covering up his death with blatant lies:

• The flagship was not in Ukrainian territory.
• The flagship was not participating in the "special operation".
• Your son went missing in the "accident" and his location has not been determined.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1522458616913145857

[OutOfMemory]

The topic is called invasion, technically it is an invasion, in fact it is a unique military special operation.

And even if you repeat this nonsense a thousand times, doesn't make it true. It's war, and it's also a russian war against their own country's citiziens, by sending brainwashed soldiers and clueless sons of russian mothers straight into death. Sovjet Union is over, it's only exisiting in the sick minds of the criminals who run your government. Something to be proud of, no?

Churchill said the next Nazis will be Anti-Nazis. Sounds 100% right to me.

EDIT: I still hope Putin won't call out general mobilization of forces, for your own sake. No Bitcoiner (noone, really) should be foced to serve to kill.

[TwitchySeal]

EDIT: I still hope Putin won't call out general mobilization of forces, for your own sake. No Bitcoiner (noone, really) should be foced to serve to kill.

Does general mobilization basically just mean a draft?

[be.open]

The fronts are not moving. If any, Ukraine has made some minor advancements and Putin keeps sending unready troops to die for nothing. The number of artillery batteries sent now to Ukraine is starting to range in the hundreds, not to mention air defences and civil support. The tactical situation is looking grim for Putin.

The fronts are moving, just slowly. Russia moves at its own pace, using its strengths to compensate for its weaknesses. Ukraine has already carried out three waves of mobilization, while Russia has not carried out a single one. For Ukraine, this is a people's war, and Russia is conducting a special operation with the forces of the peacetime army. All military successes of Ukraine are either fictitious, or are connected with the navy, which it does not have itself, or are connected with Turkish drones. In the East, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are slowly being minced by artillery and Ukraine cannot do anything about this due to problems with logistics. Russian missiles disable railway electrical substations so that only diesel locomotives operate, this allows you to save infrastructure, but drastically reduce the amount of traffic on the railway.

Putin's army is unable to make any decisive advance. What you call grinding is in fact stagnating.

Decisive offensives mean great sacrifices, you confuse inability and unwillingness.

There is a say "strategy eats tactics for breakfast". Putin's psychos tactics are far from anything that you could call effective, but the strategy of the US here is stalling Russia into a war, bleed it and leave an economy that cannot sustain another war. That is being clearly and unquestionably being achieved. While you waste your time defending a poor tactical performance, they use theirs to make the economy of your country sink into oblivion.

Are you seriously? Rather, it is an action to demilitarize Europe, which, due to its own sanctions, does not have enough energy to quickly replenish its stocks of weapons. It is beneficial for the USA, it is also beneficial for Russia, Europe suffers - Europe is a trophy and a victim. Germany looks terrible and pale in the foreign policy arena, Scholz is called liver sausage and he just swallows it, and the Ukrainian ambassador even refused to apologize. In the West, there is a serious problem with inflation, and in order to solve it, it is not enough to raise the base rate by 0.5%, it must be raised to at least 10%, and this is a trillion-dollar bill for servicing external debt. West bankrupt lol. And Russia has been making record revenues from energy exports, roughly $66 billion since the start of the operation. The ruble against the dollar is now better than before the pandemic in 2020 and much better than in February 2022.

Even in the unlikely case of Russia achieving any significant territorial gain, Putin has gone from trying to have less of a border with NATO to looks like it ends in a "victorious" border with NATO of thousands of km both north-east and south-east, an increase military spending in Europe.

You are speculating on events that have not happened yet.

This great achievement of uniting your enemies and giving new life to an organisation that was in question (NATO) and creating a thousands of kilometres long border with NATO while making sure your army is shown as unable to quick win against a theoretically inferior enemy is so great that I am starting to suspect that Putin is a CIA agent. No joke, a CIA double agent could not do any better than him.

I'm not a big fan of discussing conspiracy theories and wishful thinking.

As Sri Aurobindo Ghose said, "Imperfect is joy that is not shared by all". I am hurt by the suffering of the Ukrainian people, who, due to their stupidity, are forced to experience all the horrors of war. I hope after the operation Ukraine will find a new worthy meaning of life, except for hatred for the fraternal Russian people.

Yes. The Ukrainian people will eventually forgive the deluded Russians after this aggression is over, but not before Ukrainian independence and sovereignty are restored. And not before Putin and his Russian bullies are dealt with in a firm and just way that stops his aggressive activities and gives Ukraine the sovereign rights to create a secure future for itself. This is not only possible, it is inevitable. The history books will be telling tales of Ukraine's destruction and disrespect for national sovereignty for decades to come. The Ukrainian people will hold Russia accountable for its actions, which will have lasting consequences for Russia.

Glad we understand each other. It is useful for Ukraine to appease its ego, because Russia is in a different weight category. It is possible to pursue a free sovereign policy, but why these massive torchlight processions with calls to kill Russians? Zelensky's statements about a nuclear bomb were completely out of place. If it was a provocation, then it was successful.

[OutOfMemory]

EDIT: I still hope Putin won't call out general mobilization of forces, for your own sake. No Bitcoiner (noone, really) should be foced to serve to kill.

Does general mobilization basically just mean a draft?

Yes, after looking up "draft" in a dictionary. Every russian man capable of serving the army will be drafted. I'm not a native speaker, btw.

The fronts are not moving. If any, Ukraine has made some minor advancements and Putin keeps sending unready troops to die for nothing. The number of artillery batteries sent now to Ukraine is starting to range in the hundreds, not to mention air defences and civil support. The tactical situation is looking grim for Putin.

The fronts are moving, just slowly. Russia moves at its own pace, using its strengths to compensate for its weaknesses. Ukraine has already carried out three waves of mobilization, while Russia has not carried out a single one. For Ukraine, this is a people's war, and Russia is conducting a special operation with the forces of the peacetime army. All military successes of Ukraine are either fictitious, or are connected with the navy, which it does not have itself, or are connected with Turkish drones. In the East, the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are slowly being minced by artillery and Ukraine cannot do anything about this due to problems with logistics. Russian missiles disable railway electrical substations so that only diesel locomotives operate, this allows you to save infrastructure, but drastically reduce the amount of traffic on the railway.

Putin's army is unable to make any decisive advance. What you call grinding is in fact stagnating.

Decisive offensives mean great sacrifices, you confuse inability and unwillingness.

How much do you get paid for shilling russian war propaganda?
Putin's troll army is not a secret anymore, you might have noticed already....

[suchmoon]

EDIT: I still hope Putin won't call out general mobilization of forces, for your own sake. No Bitcoiner (noone, really) should be foced to serve to kill.

Does general mobilization basically just mean a draft?

Yes, after looking up "draft" in a dictionary. Every russian man capable of serving the army will be drafted. I'm not a native speaker, btw.

Draft (conscription) is usually an annual event to sign up 18-year-olds for training (6-12 months). Few countries still have mandatory draft, including Russia. Most countries don't have it (instead relying on voluntary/contract/professional forces), but e.g. in the US men are still required to register for it, and draft can be re-instated in the event of a war.

Mobilization is assembling a military force for a specific purpose (e.g. a war) and it involves everyone of military age (18-60 or so), so it's much more than a draft.

Mobilization is ongoing in Ukraine right now, but not in Russia, since it's "officially" not at war.

(sorry for multiple edits, my browser is having one of those days)

[OutOfMemory]

EDIT: I still hope Putin won't call out general mobilization of forces, for your own sake. No Bitcoiner (noone, really) should be foced to serve to kill.

Does general mobilization basically just mean a draft?

Yes, after looking up "draft" in a dictionary. Every russian man capable of serving the army will be drafted. I'm not a native speaker, btw.

Draft (conscription) is usually an annual event to sign up 18-year-olds for training (6-12 months). Few countries still have mandatory draft, including Russia. Most countries don't have it (instead relying on voluntary/contract/professional forces), but e.g. in the US men are still required to register for it, and draft can be re-instated in the event of a war.

Mobilization is assembling a military force for a specific purpose (e.g. a war) and it involves everyone of military age (18-60 or so), so it's much more than a draft.

Mobilization is ongoing in Ukraine right now, but not in Russia, since it's "officially" not at war.

(sorry for multiple edits, my browser is having one of those days)

Thanks for clarification, so i was really meaning mobilization, then. My dictionary translated "draft" like "to draw in", that explains the confusion.
I hope you used that special-military-operation quotes for use on the term "officially" 

[LTU_btc]

Putinist telegram channels are ablaze with the newest "proof" that Poland is planning to invade Ukraine - Andrzej Duda saying that there will be no border between the two countries. Poor clowns can't comprehend that most of Europe doesn't have borders... and those countries achieved this incomprehensible borderless arrangement without invading each other. Some lessons to be learned there, if Russian chauvinists were capable of learning.

And Russians probably can't understand how Ukrainians can travel free without any visa across whole EU/Schengen Area, while Russians aren't welcomed there.

It seems like a couple of times I gave a link to a specific video in Kadyrov's telegram as a prooflink. Or do you seriously think that Chechens know how to deepfake when they shoot a video on the selfie camera of their smartphone?

It's not about deepfakes or something else. My point that's Kadyrov TikTok Telegram is one of many not reliable Russians sources. Quite fresh example about liberated village, which actually was under LPR control since 2014 and it's far from front line. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this stuff was posted on Kadyrov telegram.

The policy of Moldova can be called pro-Romanian, up to the plans for the Moldovan-Romanian union. Moldova in the issue of Ukraine is more like a proxy for Romania, plus for it it is a chance to resolve the issue with Transnistria.

Of course, Poland has the most legally justified claims to the western part of Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine voluntarily abandoned six western regions in favor of Poland when, in 2015, it signed a joint declaration condemning the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, according to which these territories that previously belonged to Poland were transferred to Ukraine. It is a pity that you did not know about it, well, now you know.

In addition to Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Belarus also have territorial claims to Ukraine for historical reasons. There is an opinion (although I do not adhere to it) that Russia deliberately does not force the complete liberation of Donbass, expecting Poland to invade Western Ukraine. And even provokes Poland to such an invasion through the efforts of the Foreign Intelligence Service.

You're right, I didn't know about it. Could you share some links to read about it because I can't anything about Ukraine abandoning western regions in favor of Poland.
Anyway, this agenda that Europe is planning to share Ukraine in parts looks more than ridiculous. Following such logic we can say that other countries have interests in Russian territories like Konigsber or Karelia and NATO trainings near to it is preparations to invade it.

And that was Russia's best offer for Ukraine. Ukraine had to agree, it was possible to save the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and the Kherson region. Russia's next proposal will be even worse.

So, we came to conclusion that Russia isn't able to negotiate. Because giving ultimatum isn't offer to negotiate.

[OutOfMemory]

Interesting article about the current state of the russian army involved in UA "special military operation" and in general (german, use google translate for convenience):

https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-russland-hat-fuer-den-krieg-zu-wenig-soldaten-ld.1682506

On the other hand, there have been interviews that raise concern that ukrainian's smartphones are searched by soldiers for "anti russian" content and people are checked for their opinions on russian politics. Based on their answers and smartphone findings they are detained to be sent to russian "reeducation camps" (like Uigurs in China), otherwise being handed a paper that allows them to move freely in Ukraine as well to immigrate to Russia.
De-Nazification at its best... 

[paxmao]

Interesting article about the current state of the russian army involved in UA "special military operation" and in general (german, use google translate for convenience):

https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-russland-hat-fuer-den-krieg-zu-wenig-soldaten-ld.1682506

On the other hand, there have been interviews that raise concern that ukrainian's smartphones are searched by soldiers for "anti russian" content and people are checked for their opinions on russian politics. Based on their answers and smartphone findings they are detained to be sent to russian "reeducation camps" (like Uigurs in China), otherwise being handed a paper that allows them to move freely in Ukraine as well to immigrate to Russia.
De-Nazification at its best...  

A very factual article indeed.

The Russian active armed forces comprise around 900,000 men, plus 2 million former conscripts who could be called up as reservists

Now, Putin can use those 900k soldiers more or less "freely" in terms of legal decisions. However, it is evident to all that mobilising, logistics and training do not seem a strong point of Putin's army.

The Chief Psychos of Putin have a way of waging war that assumes that they can grind forever and have no hurry. However, that is the least economical way of waging a war, particularly when a number of countries are focused on devising new ways of inflicting more and more economic pain and supply Ukraine with more means. Under this circumstances, time is not on Putin's side.

Now, let's say that the Chief Psychos decide that they need to have a significant advantage in troops - like most military doctrines dictate when invading and entrenched, motivated and resourceful enemy. How many troops would they "mobilise" ... another 50k young unready soldiers? Too little. Maybe, a figure around 100k to 200k  would be more realistic from a military sense.

Putin would then have 300k - 400k soldiers in the field. I think that most people can figure out the burden of feeding, moving, supplying and providing fighting means to a troop of 300 o 400k soldiers. If time was running against the Russian Army's psychos, that would hasten the clock even more.

Yet rumours are that Putin is ordering an "all in" - which is something that leaders just do not do unless they are desperate.

On the political front, Putin would need to make a convincing argument to keep the support he enjoys. Even with all the media more controlled than ever, bodies in dead bags are noticed.

The fronts are not moving. If any, Ukraine has made some minor advancements and Putin keeps sending unready troops to die for nothing. The number of artillery batteries sent now to Ukraine is starting to range in the hundreds, not to mention air defences and civil support. The tactical situation is looking grim for Putin.

The fronts are moving, just slowly. Russia moves at its own pace, using its strengths to compensate for its weaknesses. Ukraine has already carried out three waves of mobilization, while Russia has not carried out a single one. For Ukraine, this is a people's war, and Russia is conducting a special operation with the forces of the peacetime army. All military successes of Ukraine are either fictitious, or are connected with the navy, which it does not have itself, or are connected with Turkish drones.

Nope. The fronts are not moving. Even for the Russian Army style of war, this is no progress. It is easy to validate.

Russia is at war with Ukraine. They have assembled and army, invaded another country and used military means. Russia has mobilised 190k soldiers and had to add more Tactical Cannon Fodder battalions when  they sustained more than 20% casualties (were massacred) in the Battle of Kiev.

You are fabricating a story that simply does not match the front lines and the information (that now is publicly available for anyone to see in the OSINT sources):

- Yes, Ukraine has shown that there will be no help from the fleet if trying to take Odessa. It is not about a few costly ships sunken, it is the inability to use the Russian Navy in the Black sea. That is an strategic achievement (and another reputational problem for Putin's Navy).

- Yes, Ukraine is showing videos of attacks using drones and Stugna-P's killing tanks, but that's for show. The real losses are happening when the artillery picks a full brigade of tanks in the open, unable to answer, unable to run or when the US passes satellite intelligence of critical targets.  Still, the new munitions sent by the US (razorblades) are going to provide plenty of "footage" and will keep Putin's soldiers looking to the sky, but it is the 155mm howis sent by Germany, France, US, Denmark and others that will do the butcher's job.

- And no, Ukraine resistance and payback is not fictitious. More than 15000 soldiers killed (conservative estimate), 12 generals, more than 300 senior officers and, most likely, around 1000 armoured vehicles of different types. That is not the drones, that is not only Javelins.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/06/high-death-toll-of-russian-generals-in-ukraine-a-blow-to-military-capability-a77609

Frolov is one of a total of 12 Russian generals to be killed in Ukraine in just over two months of fighting, according to a report Thursday by The New York Times. That is twice the number of generals killed in the Soviet Union’s 10-year military campaign in Afghanistan.
...
At least 317 Russian officers have been killed in Ukraine, a third of whom are senior staff — namely majors, lieutenant colonels and colonels,
  

This is from your own official sources.... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/8/we-have-significant-losses-and-its-a-huge-tragedy-kremlin

Russia admits ‘significant losses of troops’ in Ukraine
In rare acknowledgement, Kremlin spokesman tells Sky News that the deaths of many soldiers are a ‘huge tragedy’.

-

[OutOfMemory]

Interesting article about the current state of the russian army involved in UA "special military operation" and in general (german, use google translate for convenience):

https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-russland-hat-fuer-den-krieg-zu-wenig-soldaten-ld.1682506

On the other hand, there have been interviews that raise concern that ukrainian's smartphones are searched by soldiers for "anti russian" content and people are checked for their opinions on russian politics. Based on their answers and smartphone findings they are detained to be sent to russian "reeducation camps" (like Uigurs in China), otherwise being handed a paper that allows them to move freely in Ukraine as well to immigrate to Russia.
De-Nazification at its best...  

A very factual article indeed.

The Russian active armed forces comprise around 900,000 men, plus 2 million former conscripts who could be called up as reservists

Now, Putin can use those 900k soldiers more or less "freely" in terms of legal decisions. However, it is evident to all that mobilising, logistics and training do not seem a strong point of Putin's army.

The Chief Psychos of Putin have a way of waging war that assumes that they can grind forever and have no hurry. However, that is the least economical way of waging a war, particularly when a number of countries are focused on devising new ways of inflicting more and more economic pain and supply Ukraine with more means. Under this circumstances, time is not on Putin's side.

Now, let's say that the Chief Psychos decide that they need to have a significant advantage in troops - like most military doctrines dictate when invading and entrenched, motivated and resourceful enemy. How many troops would they "mobilise" ... another 50k young unready soldiers? Too little. Maybe, a figure around 100k to 200k  would be more realistic from a military sense.

Putin would then have 300k - 400k soldiers in the field. I think that most people can figure out the burden of feeding, moving, supplying and providing fighting means to a troop of 300 o 400k soldiers. If time was running against the Russian Army's psychos, that would hasten the clock even more.

Yet rumours are that Putin is ordering an "all in" - which is something that leaders just do not do unless they are desperate.

On the political front, Putin would need to make a convincing argument to keep the support he enjoys. Even with all the media more controlled than ever, bodies in dead bags are noticed.

Didn't Russia make that mistake before (possibly Afghanistan)?
Also, AFAIK as an invader, to fully take over and hold a country, you'd need 4 times more soldiers than the victim country.
This is probably the reason to draw another 20k soldiers from Moldavia into UA, "borrowing" tens of thousands of foreign figthers from Syria, Iran. They have to cover their personell deficits in the army. They need experienced fighters with stamina, because the young recruits we falling like flies in face of a well trained enemy.
Chances may be that Putin already is all-in as soon as he involves Moldavia. I dnn't think he can keep the russian families calm when he starts mobilizing their russian sons and fathers. That might get interesting. He can't detain half of the population...

[paxmao]

Interesting article about the current state of the russian army involved in UA "special military operation" and in general (german, use google translate for convenience):

https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-russland-hat-fuer-den-krieg-zu-wenig-soldaten-ld.1682506

On the other hand, there have been interviews that raise concern that ukrainian's smartphones are searched by soldiers for "anti russian" content and people are checked for their opinions on russian politics. Based on their answers and smartphone findings they are detained to be sent to russian "reeducation camps" (like Uigurs in China), otherwise being handed a paper that allows them to move freely in Ukraine as well to immigrate to Russia.
De-Nazification at its best...  

A very factual article indeed.

The Russian active armed forces comprise around 900,000 men, plus 2 million former conscripts who could be called up as reservists

Now, Putin can use those 900k soldiers more or less "freely" in terms of legal decisions. However, it is evident to all that mobilising, logistics and training do not seem a strong point of Putin's army.

The Chief Psychos of Putin have a way of waging war that assumes that they can grind forever and have no hurry. However, that is the least economical way of waging a war, particularly when a number of countries are focused on devising new ways of inflicting more and more economic pain and supply Ukraine with more means. Under this circumstances, time is not on Putin's side.

Now, let's say that the Chief Psychos decide that they need to have a significant advantage in troops - like most military doctrines dictate when invading and entrenched, motivated and resourceful enemy. How many troops would they "mobilise" ... another 50k young unready soldiers? Too little. Maybe, a figure around 100k to 200k  would be more realistic from a military sense.

Putin would then have 300k - 400k soldiers in the field. I think that most people can figure out the burden of feeding, moving, supplying and providing fighting means to a troop of 300 o 400k soldiers. If time was running against the Russian Army's psychos, that would hasten the clock even more.

Yet rumours are that Putin is ordering an "all in" - which is something that leaders just do not do unless they are desperate.

On the political front, Putin would need to make a convincing argument to keep the support he enjoys. Even with all the media more controlled than ever, bodies in dead bags are noticed.

Didn't Russia make that mistake before (possibly Afghanistan)?
Also, AFAIK as an invader, to fully take over and hold a country, you'd need 4 times more soldiers than the victim country.
This is probably the reason to draw another 20k soldiers from Moldavia into UA, "borrowing" tens of thousands of foreign figthers from Syria, Iran. They have to cover their personell deficits in the army. They need experienced fighters with stamina, because the young recruits we falling like flies in face of a well trained enemy.
Chances may be that Putin already is all-in as soon as he involves Moldavia. I dnn't think he can keep the russian families calm when he starts mobilizing their russian sons and fathers. That might get interesting. He can't detain half of the population...

In theory, he should have around 900k professionals, minus the loses, but I am starting to doubt much the real ability of Russia to use even half of those troops. I do not think Putin has any intention of sending recruits against the highly experienced Ukrainian troops. That would be a political suicide even for this guy.

Involving Moldavia... In my view it would be a huge strategic mistake. The troops in Transnistria cannot be supplied from stable bases protected in friendly territory and far from Ukrainian range. I may be missing something, but that is basically an army corps that is cut-off from the main army - a 101 strategic mistake.

Using foreign troops is something as old as history - zero political cost, no bags coming home - cheap death. Napoleon used his Polish troops when carnage was going to happen, Romans the auxiliary troops,... It is not a sign of strength certainly.

EDITED TO UPDATE:

Why would Putin's psychos send a crane to the Theatre at Mariupol? Is there anything interesting to cover that they would need rebuilding in all urgency??

An extensive excavation of the bombed Mariupol drama theater is underway, new satellite images from Maxar Technologies show. The images, taken on May 6, show a crane and trucks at the site]An extensive excavation of the bombed Mariupol drama theater is underway, new satellite images from Maxar Technologies show. The images, taken on May 6, show a crane and trucks at the site

[suchmoon]

Nope. The fronts are not moving. Even for the Russian Army style of war, this is no progress. It is easy to validate.

I noticed that maps in some "vatnik" channels are getting zoomed in to ridiculous detail... they're literally counting individual streets being "captured" in villages in Donbas while completely ignoring the retreat around Kharkov.

That said, there are some LDNR/Kadyrov troops moving up from Mariupol so there might be one more push soon around Donetsk or Hulyaipole before May 9.