Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[Marvelman]

The idea that Putin can come out of this as a winner is simply delusional. This is a strategic disaster for the Russian regime. It should have been obvious by now. Despite months of planning and overwhelming superior force, his worst kept secret strategy did not go as planned. The invasion is not going well. It looks increasingly likely that the Russian operation will result in failure, and heavy casualties on both sides.

And this might just be the beginning. We are on the verge of a new Cold War, and Putin’s actions will probably be on the forefront of U.S. and E.U. national security for decades to come.

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[Veleor]

The Russian news agency "RIA" about the serial number of the rocket that hit in Kramatorsk.
I have heard that many people cannot access Russian sites, so I will quote this article here with English translation.

MOSCOW, April 9 - RIA Novosti. Photographs taken by Western journalists with Kyiv's permission prove that the Tochka-U missile that attacked Kramatorsk was Ukrainian. The Donetsk TV channel "Union" drew attention to this, as well as several Telegram channels specializing in military topics.

"The serial number of the Tochka-U missile that fell on the train station in Kramatorsk the day before appeared on the Web. Rocket 9M79-1, serial number Sh91579. Previously, Ukrainian militants used missiles from the same series," the channel said.



The authors of the publication also listed other missiles that were on the balance sheet of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Two of them were used in 2015 in Alchevsk and Logvinovo, others in Berdyansk and Melitopol.

"The number of the Tochka-U missile, which killed dozens of civilians in Kramatorsk, coincides with a series of missiles in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine," ex-deputy of the Rada Ilya Kiva also noted in the Telegram channel.
In addition, some noticed that the serial number of Tochka-U was initially blurred on the Ukrainian footage, but recordings with readable numbers appeared on the air of foreign TV channels - for example, in the news release of TG La7.

Among other things, the representative of the People's Militia of the DPR, Eduard Basurin, reported that Kramatorsk was fired upon by the same brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as earlier - Donetsk.
As a result of a provocation at the railway station in Kramatorsk, according to the statement of the head of the Donetsk People's Republic Denis Pushilin, 50 people were killed, including five children.

The Ukrainian side tried to pose as innocent. However, according to presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the Russian Armed Forces do not use the type of missiles that were used in Kramatorsk. The Ministry of Defense also denied all accusations, stressing that the Tochka-U tactical missiles, the fragments of which were found near the Kramatorsk railway station and published by eyewitnesses, are used only by the Ukrainian military.

The department recalled that on March 14, a similar Tochka-U missile by a division of the 19th separate missile brigade attacked the center of Donetsk, as a result of which 17 people died on the spot and another 36 civilians were injured.

Earlier, the Investigative Committee established that the fire was fired by the 19th separate missile brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, its commander is Colonel Yaroshevich. [...]

https://ria.ru/20220409/kramatorsk-1782722177.html


The Sun journalists filmed the Ukrainian security officer with the SS symbols.
You can read about the actions of this SS Galicia during World War II on Wikipedia (the third paragraph on the link).

[paxmao]

The Russian news agency "RIA" about the serial number of the rocket that hit in Kramatorsk.
...
The Sun journalists filmed the Ukrainian security officer with the SS symbols.
You can read about the actions of this SS Galicia during World War II on Wikipedia (the third paragraph on the link).

...

You just post a picture of a serial number painted on a missile, there is no context, no visual reference, it could be one of my cars painted in green with a few numbers and on top you assert that it was part of Ukraine's arsenal.

Is good to know that their propaganda work is of such a poor quality. It is barely sufficient to palate for the Russian market. In other words, it is difficult to believe even for people who are really trying hard to.

The only thing that seems credible on this is that it is from one of Putin's "official sources"


You could as well try to refer to the US Cavalry killing American Natives as "proof" (of what exactly) on regards to the uniform.

[LTU_btc]

The Belarusians fired their Tochka-U missiles at the joint exercises, it's true. The flight range of Tochka-U is 120 km, it will not fly from the territory of Belarus to Kramatorsk. Tochka-U is a good powerful missile, but obsolete, rather slow, and it flies along a ballistic trajectory, although it can steer a little towards the target, for example, to compensate for gusts of wind. If it was not shot down (and the rocket in Kramatorsk worked normally), then by the location of the tail section relative to the epicenter of the impact, it is easy to determine where it came from. Moreover, on the tail section there is a serial number of the missile, by which you can accurately determine which military unit it was in service with. You are not interested in such trifles when you are sure in advance that you are right, right?

Good point about flight range. But about that Russia don't use Tochka U anymore, it's lie. For example, this system were shown in May 9th parade in Korenovsk last year:
https://t.me/uniannet/45503
And about serial number of missile, such thing isn't public and any army never will not announce such things in public. So we won't know this, unless independent investigation will be made.

According to some characteristic features of this launch, such as one rocket taking off before the second from one point, I can assume that Iskander-K is operating in this video, it has a dual launcher. Tochka-U usually also work in pairs, but from two different installations and with a synchronous start. In this case, it appears to have been a single strike, because there were no reports of a second missile at Kramatorsk.

I'm not military expert to be certain to say what type of missile we see in this video. But do we have reports of Iskander hitting something yesterday? And from reports, it's visible on photos that missile landed in north-east direction, what means that it arrived from south or southwest. Shakhstark is directed in south from Kramatorsk

I don't comment on conspiracy theories. There are easier ways to determine the culprit of what happened - for example, check the serial numbers on the tail of the rocket or analyze its trajectory.

4, is conspiracy theory indeed. It might be true, or just coincidence. But 3, isn't conspiracy. How they can announce such message before it actually happened. And using tool for scheduled post - it's possible that this message was prepared much earlier.

And the reasons for provocations under a false flag are very simple - Ukraine needs to continue to keep the attention of the world community at all costs, so that there are new deliveries of weapons and financial assistance from the West, and the West's sanctions pressure on Russia intensifies, even if it already hurts the West itself.

If something happens against Russian agenda it's false flag attacks from Ukraine. Nothing new from Russia. But usually it's just conspiracy theories without any proffs and it doesn't amkes much sense.

[paxmao]

The Belarusians fired their Tochka-U missiles at the joint exercises, it's true. The flight range of Tochka-U is 120 km, it will not fly from the territory of Belarus to Kramatorsk. Tochka-U is a good powerful missile, but obsolete, rather slow, and it flies along a ballistic trajectory, although it can steer a little towards the target, for example, to compensate for gusts of wind. If it was not shot down (and the rocket in Kramatorsk worked normally), then by the location of the tail section relative to the epicenter of the impact, it is easy to determine where it came from. Moreover, on the tail section there is a serial number of the missile, by which you can accurately determine which military unit it was in service with. You are not interested in such trifles when you are sure in advance that you are right, right?

Good point about flight range. But about that Russia don't use Tochka U anymore, it's lie. For example, this system were shown in May 9th parade in Korenovsk last year:
https://t.me/uniannet/45503
And about serial number of missile, such thing isn't public and any army never will not announce such things in public. So we won't know this, unless independent investigation will be made.

Let's put in context the quality of the information on the sources that are publishing this information. These are other headlines on the same media (google translated I am afraid):

The West creates a medical concentration camp

French economist predicted the fall of the USD in favour of the ruble.

Residents of Stuttgart took to the rally with a call to stop Russophobia

Animal shelters suffer from sanctions

Europe may make Moldova a great gas power

and possibly, the only veridic one:

The British in social networks offer Ukrainian women housing for sex

Needless to say that the UK does have that type of adds since years, non Ukrainian specific mostly.

[suchmoon]

You just post a picture of a serial number painted on a missile, there is no context, no visual reference, it could be one of my cars painted in green with a few numbers and on top you assert that it was part of Ukraine's arsenal.

The serial number ending in 79 seems to be real - it can be found in TG La7 (Italian TV channel) video on Youtube.

But you're right about the rest of that "proof" is coming from Putin's mouthpiece (RIA) so it can't be trusted.

It was quite lovely though how our favorite Kremlintroll announced that a serial number would be the ultimate "proof" and sure enough, "proof" soon appeared.

There are easier ways to determine the culprit of what happened - for example, check the serial numbers on the tail of the rocket

there is information about the serial number of the rocket from Kramatorsk

[paxmao]

You just post a picture of a serial number painted on a missile, there is no context, no visual reference, it could be one of my cars painted in green with a few numbers and on top you assert that it was part of Ukraine's arsenal.

The serial number ending in 79 seems to be real - it can be found in TG La7 (Italian TV channel) video on Youtube.

But you're right about the rest of that "proof" is coming from Putin's mouthpiece (RIA) so it can't be trusted.

It was quite lovely though how our favorite Kremlintroll announced that a serial number would be the ultimate "proof" and sure enough, "proof" soon appeared.

There are easier ways to determine the culprit of what happened - for example, check the serial numbers on the tail of the rocket

there is information about the serial number of the rocket from Kramatorsk

Agreed, I am just saying that, in that picture, there is no context to link it to anything in particular, nor can be really validated as original. I have made an exception and saw the video, so yes that image is acceptable as belonging to the missile shown. The serial itself does not, insofar as public evidence I have seen, have any link to Ukraine's arsenal.

Now that I think of it, could a serial number be just faked? I mean, is not like you are changing the directional system, is just painting a few numbers??

Let's say I am a Putin's army strategist and want to create doubt about the origin of that attack, since I know there will be civilians there. I choose a crappy missile from the bottom of my about to expire-date weaponry, change the serial number and ... there it goes.

I am honestly very doubtful about the white markings translated as "for the children" though. The missile itself - that came from Shakhtarsk.

[suchmoon]

Now that I think of it, could a serial number be just faked? I mean, is not like you are changing the directional system, is just painting a few numbers??

Yeah it looks spray-painted with a template, nothing special.

The two "9" are very different. If I were to nitpick I'd say "579" was painted separately from "91" (thicker and not lining up). In the video from 2015 digits seem to be more uniform and the "5" is different from the 2022 version. I don't think this means much though given the low-tech method of painting it. Edit: on a second thought, it kinda deflates the idea that those missiles were made and delivered in the same batch, and then stored and launched by the same entity. Clearly made with different number templates at least.

2022:


2015:

[tvbcof]

Yeah it looks spray-painted with a template, nothing special.

The two "9" are very different. If I were to nitpick I'd say "579" was painted separately from "91" (thicker and not lining up). In the video from 2015 digits seem to be more uniform and the "5" is different from the 2022 version. I don't think this means much though given the low-tech method of painting it. Edit: on a second thought, it kinda deflates the idea that those missiles were made and delivered in the same batch, and then stored and launched by the same entity. Clearly made with different number templates at least.

2022:


2015:

Looks to me like someone held the '6' upside down to make a '9' rather than using some different character set and style which seems to be what you are implying.  Even if there were some font differences, that would be relatively expected in a place where a lot of serial number painting is done and one has a lot of such work going on (factory, military, etc.)

[be.open]

It was quite lovely though how our favorite Kremlintroll announced that a serial number would be the ultimate "proof" and sure enough, "proof" soon appeared.

There are easier ways to determine the culprit of what happened - for example, check the serial numbers on the tail of the rocket

there is information about the serial number of the rocket from Kramatorsk

I did not expect that the serial number would come up so quickly, especially since the Ukrainian media diligently obscured it in their reports. But the Italian journalists showed the video without retouching, special thanks to them.

Shame on the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fire cluster munitions at their own civilians, this is the style and methods of the Syrian terrorists from ISIS (banned in Russia).

[suchmoon]

I did not expect that the serial number would come up so quickly

Except the number (or similarity thereof) doesn't mean much, as has been proven in similar situations before. Clinging so hard to this "proof" probably means you have no real proof that this was a Ukrainian missile.

https://youtu.be/7cV17MkoOsw?t=70
(in DNR, presumably Ukrainian)


https://youtu.be/37ZmIfyePd4?t=17
(in Syria, which is quite far from Ukraine last time I checked)

[be.open]

I did not expect that the serial number would come up so quickly

Except the number (or similarity thereof) doesn't mean much, as has been proven in similar situations before. Clinging so hard to this "proof" probably means you have no real proof that this was a Ukrainian missile.

I'm not a prosecutor, why do I even need to prove something? The burden of proof lies with the accusing party, in the event of this provocation, Ukraine falsely accuses Russia of launching a missile strike with a Ukrainian missile from the territory controlled by Ukraine into the territory also controlled by Ukraine. And Ukraine does not bother to provide any evidence!

Such complex products as a rocket consist of many nodes, assembled at the factory on the same numbers, and each internal node has this number, not painted, but stamped in metal (there are at least a dozen of them inside the preserved tail section). And at the Votkinsk Machine-Building Plant, where this particular rocket was made, the archive has paper accounting documents for each copy, including which military unit it was delivered to.

[Marvelman]

Although I guess it's better than the completely retarded "The Ukranians are bombing and executing themselves" defense that the guy above me keeps claiming.

Aren't Ukrainians already shelling their own for the last 8 years?

It's the same rhetoric used by the Serbs in the former Yugoslavia, and probably by all the aggressors throughout history. Pathetic assholes.

[suchmoon]

I'm not a prosecutor, why do I even need to prove something?

You're the one claiming that mere similarity of the serial number to another serial number proves something. It doesn't, as can be seen above.

You have also lied about Tochka-U not being used by Russian forces for "several years", when it clearly was still in use as late as a few months ago, and likely in use during this war as well.

So while the Ukrainian government may lack definitive proof, the attempts by Russian propagandists to shift blame are riddled with lies and they're carpet-bombing the internet with contradictory and false information. You're like that boy who cried wolf and blamed the wolf for looting and killing civilians.

Such complex products as a rocket consist of many nodes, assembled at the factory on the same numbers, and each internal node has this number, not painted, but stamped in metal (there are at least a dozen of them inside the preserved tail section). And at the Votkinsk Machine-Building Plant, where this particular rocket was made, the archive has paper accounting documents for each copy, including which military unit it was delivered to.

Nice job shifting those goal posts, comrade.

Let me guess, Russian propaganda will soon produce "factory" paperwork "proving" that the missile in question was delivered to Ukrainian SSR in 1980s.

[paxmao]

...

there is information about the serial number of the rocket from Kramatorsk
...

Shame on the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fire cluster munitions at their own civilians, this is the style and methods of the Syrian terrorists from ISIS (banned in Russia).

I am afraid that both of these statements are false. Even if there is a serial number, I have not seen anything linking that with Kramatorsk nor Ukraine. I have however seem a number of geolocated pictures of missiles launches from Shakhtarsk happening on a daily bases.

Re evidence and burden or proof, I am afraid you controllers would need to provide the world with evidence that that missile come from someone else. I know that your aim is to create doubt, but, on this case, the reason for hitting a train station, the fact that missiles are Putin's weapon of choice for strategic large targets and the fact that if Ukraine would ever choose a false flag would be a civilian target but certainly not a real strategic target that is critical to evacuate and send over reinforcements makes the case very clear:

Putin's army does not care if there are civilians or not - the will hit any target they consider necessary. It is more of a grinding machine than a human led army.

I can see bunch of psychopaths in Putin's war room deciding to shell a city, target a station, kill anyone of fighting age,... Mission first, humanity later Mein Führer Mr Putin.

..
I'm not a prosecutor, why do I even need to prove something? ...

That explains a lot of what your write.

[be.open]

Even if there is a serial number, I have not seen anything linking that with Kramatorsk nor Ukraine.

If the serial numbers do not mean anything, tell me why they are retouched in the reports of the Ukrainian media? The serial number of the tail section of the rocket was found out only thanks to the report of the Italian media.

I have however seem a number of geolocated pictures of missiles launches from Shakhtarsk happening on a daily bases.

The distance in a straight line between Shakhtyorsk and Kramatorsk is 105 km. The maximum flight range of the Tochka-U missile is 120 km. When flying to the maximum range, the fuel in the rocket burns out completely, the fuel compartment of the rocket tail from Kramatorsk burned out offhand by about a third - that is, the rocket flew to the target about 40 km (which is in good agreement with the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense that the strike was delivered from a distance of 45 km).

Tochka-U cannot maneuver and flies along a ballistic trajectory. If the missile was not shot down by missile defense (and the missile from Kramatorsk was not shot down by missile defense), then by the relative position of the tail and the epicenter of the impact, it is possible to determine with an accuracy of 10-15 degrees from which direction the missile flew. In combination with the information from the previous paragraph, it is possible to determine quite accurately where the rocket was launched from, and this is not Shakhtyorsk.

Moderate your narrow-minded emotions, you just do not understand the issue and let's leave it to those who understand. If the rocket flew 105 km from Shakhtyorsk, the remnants of the tail section would be much shorter due to the burning out of more fuel, is that clearer? The provocation of Ukraine is absolutely ridiculous and is designed so that no one will seriously understand what happened, the main thing is to create a newsbreak.

[paxmao]

... (which is in good agreement with the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense that the strike was delivered from a distance of 45 km).

Tochka-U cannot maneuver and flies along a ballistic trajectory. If the missile was not shot down by missile defense (and the missile from Kramatorsk was not shot down by missile defense), then by the relative position of the tail and the epicenter of the impact, it is possible to determine with an accuracy of 10-15 degrees from which direction the missile flew. In combination with the information from the previous paragraph, it is possible to determine quite accurately where the rocket was launched from, and this is not Shakhtyorsk.

... you just do not understand the issue and let's leave it to those who understand....

I see. Well, since you do not feel you need to prove anything that you say, I guess it would be futile to ask you if you have any proof other than the statement from an interested party (a Russian Ministery) and the "magister dixit" argument (other people know more, so you are wrong).

You see, you have used a medieval argument without even know that existed. I hope that makes your reflect on your way of thinking.

magister dixit    "the teacher has said it" - Canonical medieval reference to Aristotle, precluding further discussion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Latin_phrases_(M)#:~:text=magister%20dixit,to%20Aristotle%2C%20precluding%20further%20discussion

Example:

The bomb in Hiroshima was delivered by a Nazi submarine and exploded by a suicide SS agent. The Russian Ministry of Phantasy and Black Humour has determined so, and they know more than you. Besides, the Nazis had the bomb while Americans didn't and since I do not have to proof anything you need to accept this.

Jokes apart, I am the kind of person that, provided an explanation, even if complex, can certainly understand it (even if it is rocket science - literally). You are simply failing to provide any support for assertions other than citing specs given by your controllers.

Again, if the Ukrainians would need to artificially create any Putinphobia, they would not hit a real strategic target. It is just stupid.

[Tash]

Although I guess it's better than the completely retarded "The Ukranians are bombing and executing themselves" defense that the guy above me keeps claiming.

Aren't Ukrainians already shelling their own for the last 8 years?

Donetsk and Luhansk are break away republics. Ukrainiens love them so much to attack them regulary.

[be.open]

Jokes apart, I am the kind of person that, provided an explanation, even if complex, can certainly understand it (even if it is rocket science - literally).

I think I explained in sufficient detail (maybe even too much) why this rocket could not fly from Shakhtyorsk, the question is whether you are capable of listening to reasonable arguments at all? In the previous message, I gave you another thread, by pulling which you can find out the truth - the amount of unburned fuel in the fuel compartment of the tail section. It's up to you what to do with it.

It's OK if you consider me a victim of Russian propaganda or a stupid bum from the couch troops of a slow selective response. I see no point in trying to dissuade you from this.

[Branko]

Although I guess it's better than the completely retarded "The Ukranians are bombing and executing themselves" defense that the guy above me keeps claiming.

Aren't Ukrainians already shelling their own for the last 8 years?

It's the same rhetoric used by the Serbs in the former Yugoslavia, and probably by all the aggressors throughout history. Pathetic assholes.

Yes, Serbs lied a lot. So did us...I know, I fought on Croatian side