Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[DrBeer]

While lovers of delusional fairy tales are trying to convince themselves that the EU will disappear without gas from a terrorist country, the reality looks like this:

In the first five months of 2023, gas supplies to the European Union amounted to 127.6 billion m³, compared to 160.7 billion m³ a year earlier. At the same time, in the first quarter, gas consumption by Europeans fell by 14%, and pipeline imports by 37%. Marine supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) occupy an increasingly large share.

Let's consider the sources of gas supplies to the EU from January to June 2023 and for the same period in 2022.

Russia
Gas is pumped through the Turkish Stream and Ukrainian transit - about 200 and 260 million m³ per week. Another approximately 1.6 billion m³ arrives monthly by sea
2023: 10.3 billion m³
2022: 44 billion m³
Change: -77%

Norway
Gas in the EU mainly comes through pipes on the bottom of the North Sea and partly as LNG. We also recently launched the Baltic pipe - to Poland along the bottom of the Baltic Sea
2023: 38.2 billion m³
2022: 38.4 billion m³
Change: -0.5%

Algeria
The capacity of the Medgaz pipeline to Spain is about 8 billion m³ per year, and the TransMed project to Italy is 33 billion m³. Also small deliveries are made by sea.
2023: 13 billion m³
2022: 13.9 billion m³
Change: -6.5%

Great Britain
The Interconnector is a gas pipeline that runs across the North Sea to Belgium. Its annual capacity is 25.5 billion m³, it operates in both directions
2023: 9.9 billion m³
2022: 8.6 billion m³
Change: +15%

LNG supplies
In April 2023, the European Union received 13 billion m³ of liquefied gas, of which about 6.6 billion from America, 2.6 billion from Africa, 2 billion from the Middle East, 1.6 billion from Russia. Another 0.44 billion came from other countries, such as Norway, China and Brazil
2023: 50.1 billion m³
2022: 50 billion m³
Change: +0.2%

In total, the share of supplies from the terrorist country is falling, and irreversibly. The EU took a very right step - they diversified supplies, and now they come from MANY countries in order to avoid critical dependence on any supplier.

[stompix]

Europe gained nothing from this move. In fact they only lost (cheap gas they were buying from Russia). Europe now almost completely depends on the US natural gas exports.

Can you explain why the cheap russian gas was twice as expensive before the invasion of Ukraine than what LNG is now?
https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5733529&span=3
Because if Europe was buying in February 2022 gas at an average of 40Euros per MW and is buying now at an average of 25Euros from the US seems like it's the other way around in terms of cheapness! 

Also, it might be very stupid for China to delay the power of Siberia to buy gas from Russia while importing record highs of Us LNG?
They are also stupid, right? 

Get over it, Russia shot itself in the foot and its left with no money even for bandages while their formers allies will not trust them again no matter what!

[serveria.com]

Can you explain why the cheap russian gas was twice as expensive before the invasion of Ukraine than what LNG is now?
https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5733529&span=3
Because if Europe was buying in February 2022 gas at an average of 40Euros per MW and is buying now at an average of 25Euros from the US seems like it's the other way around in terms of cheapness! 

Also, it might be very stupid for China to delay the power of Siberia to buy gas from Russia while importing record highs of Us LNG?
They are also stupid, right? 

Get over it, Russia shot itself in the foot and its left with no money even for bandages while their formers allies will not trust them again no matter what!

I hate to spoon-feed people and explain simple things but I will make an exception for you. Perhaps that's because nobody knew what is going to happen next and they bought as much gas as they could? Once the gas storage facilities were full and there was some clarity about LNG deliveries from the US, the prices started going down. After that, the US started dumping with their cheap LNG. Something is still not clear?

The question is for how long can the US sell LNG at an affordable price to the EU?

Frankly, I don't give a damn about Russia. I'm not Russian, I've never been to Russia (even as a tourist). But while you're jerking off to the price drop in Excel tables and futures and stuff like that, real common people's sufferings go on. I can see my gas bill going up (another increase starting January 2024), oil prices are going up too. For some reason they haven't heard anything about energy costing less at my local gas station and they keep charging me more. 

Even Salt Bae restaurant selling £680 steaks are trying to save on heating and energy: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/19/salt-bae-restaurant-steak-heating-nusr-et-steakhouse-profits   

So yeah, everything is going according to the plan! Slava Ukraini! 

[stompix]

I hate to spoon-feed people and explain simple things but I will make an exception for you. Perhaps that's because nobody knew what is going to happen next and they bought as much gas as they could? Once the gas storage facilities were full and there was some clarity about LNG deliveries from the US, the prices started going down. After that, the US started dumping with their cheap LNG. Something is still not clear?

Yes!
Why was Russian gas before the invasion of Ukraine twice as expensive as US LNG is right now despite you claiming that russian gas was cheaper?

The question is for how long can the US sell LNG at an affordable price to the EU?

NATURAL GAS (HENRY HUB) Price
$1.58/per million British thermal unit
You do the math!

Frankly, I don't give a damn about Russia. I'm not Russian, I've never been to Russia (even as a tourist).

Indeed komrade! I much not don't doubt you! Such true! Much trust!

[DrBeer]

...
I hate to spoon-feed people and explain simple things but I will make an exception for you. Perhaps that's because nobody knew what is going to happen next and they bought as much gas as they could? Once the gas storage facilities were full and there was some clarity about LNG deliveries from the US, the prices started going down. After that, the US started dumping with their cheap LNG. Something is still not clear?
The question is for how long can the US sell LNG at an affordable price to the EU?

Another example of primitive lying, granted it's expected

And now, once again, I will dip you in your own informational excrement :
1. The decrease in gas consumption in the EU is due to two reasons:
- planned reduction of consumption due to optimization of
- high temperature
- reserves were formed in a standardized way, based on the needs.
2. The EU does not only buy gas from the USA. And the price of gas is influenced by market factors.... Hot I understand - you in Russia don't understand what a free market is
PS And this is not a "US conspiracy", as it is common in your alternative "reality" to explain any failure

So yeah, everything is going according to the plan! Slava Ukraini! 

Wow !!! Did you get your brain detoxed and it's working?!? Or are you just preparing to say "No, I've always been against Russia, I've always been for Ukraine" ?  That's what many Russians start to do when they realize where everything is going

[bryant.coleman]

NATURAL GAS (HENRY HUB) Price
$1.58/per million British thermal unit
You do the math!

Not an apple to apple comparison.

If you want to compare Henry Hub price, then you should compare it against wellhead price in Siberia, and not against the price at the Greifswald entry point. This is because transportation and liquefaction makes up the majority of the cost for natural gas. Gas that costs $1.58 per MMBTU at Henry Hub may cost many times as much once it lands in Europe. And as far as I know, liquefied gas can never be as cheap as piped gas.

[DrBeer]

NATURAL GAS (HENRY HUB) Price
$1.58/per million British thermal unit
You do the math!

Not an apple to apple comparison.

If you want to compare Henry Hub price, then you should compare it against wellhead price in Siberia, and not against the price at the Greifswald entry point. This is because transportation and liquefaction makes up the majority of the cost for natural gas. Gas that costs $1.58 per MMBTU at Henry Hub may cost many times as much once it lands in Europe. And as far as I know, liquefied gas can never be as cheap as piped gas.

You are very much mistaken. The fact is that “liquefied natural gas” (a mixture of propane and butane) is a by-product that is produced during oil refining. Natural gas (methane) is a natural resource that comes from underground.
Therefore, initially this gas is much cheaper. Transportation is not as expensive as, for example, the construction of gas transport systems, which cost tens of billions of dollars.

[Argoo]

In the summer of 2022, Putin unilaterally cut off natural gas supplies to Europe, hoping that shivering Europeans would turn against their leaders during the winter and make it politically unfeasible to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against invading Russian occupiers.

In 2021, a whopping 83 percent of Russian gas was exported to Europe. Russia's total global exports of 7 million barrels of oil per day and 200 billion cubic meters of piped gas per year account for about half of its federal income. More importantly, Russian commodity exports played a critical role in global supply chains: Europe depended on Russia for 46 percent of its total gas supplies, with comparable levels of dependence on other Russian goods, including metals and fertilizers.

It is now obvious that Russia has finally lost its former economic power in the world market. European leaders have successfully found alternatives to supplying the bloody fuel, while Russia is suffering significant losses. First of all, this is the Gazprom company. It cut gas production last year by about 23% because it lost about 85% of the European Union market. There are only deliveries left to Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and partly to the Czech Republic - this concerns pipeline transport. But this year the contract with Ukraine for the supply of gas from Russia via pipelines through Ukrainian territory ends. Ukraine has already stated several times that it does not intend to extend it, although it will lose approximately $1.2 billion in profit per year for the transit of Russian gas. But Ukraine will not help Russia sponsor a war against itself. But what will happen next is very interesting and I hope Russia will not like it very much.

[serveria.com]

In the summer of 2022, Putin unilaterally cut off natural gas supplies to Europe, hoping that shivering Europeans would turn against their leaders during the winter and make it politically unfeasible to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against invading Russian occupiers.

In 2021, a whopping 83 percent of Russian gas was exported to Europe. Russia's total global exports of 7 million barrels of oil per day and 200 billion cubic meters of piped gas per year account for about half of its federal income. More importantly, Russian commodity exports played a critical role in global supply chains: Europe depended on Russia for 46 percent of its total gas supplies, with comparable levels of dependence on other Russian goods, including metals and fertilizers.

It is now obvious that Russia has finally lost its former economic power in the world market. European leaders have successfully found alternatives to supplying the bloody fuel, while Russia is suffering significant losses. First of all, this is the Gazprom company. It cut gas production last year by about 23% because it lost about 85% of the European Union market. There are only deliveries left to Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and partly to the Czech Republic - this concerns pipeline transport. But this year the contract with Ukraine for the supply of gas from Russia via pipelines through Ukrainian territory ends. Ukraine has already stated several times that it does not intend to extend it, although it will lose approximately $1.2 billion in profit per year for the transit of Russian gas. But Ukraine will not help Russia sponsor a war against itself. But what will happen next is very interesting and I hope Russia will not like it very much.

You are delusional and you don't understand how the global gas trade works. EU can't survive without Russian gas. Period. EU is buying Russian gas via China and India. Or you were stupid enough to believe they are keeping all that gas for themselves?  

Russia won't need the transit agreement with Ukraine for one simple reason: in 2-3 years max there won't be any Ukraine.

[pooya87]

In the summer of 2022, Putin unilaterally cut off natural gas supplies to Europe, hoping that shivering Europeans would turn against their leaders during the winter and make it politically unfeasible to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against invading Russian occupiers.

Your views of events is funny. I think it's time you stopped reading mouthpieces on the internet.
Russia needs European markets as much as Europe needs Russian markets, specially Eastern Europe. The gas supply to EU has never been cut, not by Russia anyways. They continued selling gas to Europe specially through Nord Stream. Even today Russia is still supplying a lot of petroleum to Europe directly and indirectly.
For example: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-west-east-route-keeps-europe-hooked-russian-gas-2024-04-03/

The supply that was "cut" was from EU side and also from US side when they blew up Nord Stream in order to hook EU up on very expensive American gas/oil so that they can revive the weakening US economy.

[Argoo]

You are delusional and you don't understand how the global gas trade works. EU can't survive without Russian gas. Period. EU is buying Russian gas via China and India. Or you were stupid enough to believe they are keeping all that gas for themselves?  

Russia won't need the transit agreement with Ukraine for one simple reason: in 2-3 years max there won't be any Ukraine.

While Russia is repeating the mantra that the European Union cannot do without Russian gas, the EU countries, which even before Russia’s attack on Ukraine had taken a course towards alternative energy sources, are now intensifying such a transition, also taking into account the sharp climate change on our planet.

Back in 2022, the EU received more energy from renewable sources than from burning gas for the first time. This is evidenced by a report from the Ember analytical center on EU climate policy. According to analysts' calculations, in 2022 in EU countries, solar and wind energy accounted for about 22% of electricity produced. This is more than ever before, analysts say. Gas flaring contributed about 20%, one percentage point less than in 2021.

EU countries produced 203 terawatt-hours of solar energy in 2022, which is 24% more than a year earlier. According to analysts, this saved about 10 billion euros on gas purchases. Wind energy provided the EU with 420 terawatt-hours of energy, 33 terawatt-hours more than in 2021.
https://zn.ua/WORLD/v-proshlom-hodu-es-vpervye-poluchil-bolshe-enerhii-iz-vozobnovljaemykh-istochnikov-chem-ot-szhihanija-haza.html

After some time, Europe will not need Russian gas at all.

As for the existence of Ukraine, this topic is really worth returning to in 2-3 years. Who knows, maybe by that time Russia itself will be reduced territorially to several regions in which oil and gas will probably not be produced. Then the issue of selling Russian gas will disappear on its own.

[Sithara007]

Russia will find new customers for its natural gas. Planning for Power of Siberia 2 is in final stages, and this pipeline is expected to carry 50 billion m³ of gas annually to China. And the Power of Siberia 1 is already operating with a capacity of 38 billion m³. Also another pipeline is in plans to transport natural gas from Sakhalin Island to China, and this one is expected to have a capacity of 10 billion m³. Russia has also increased it's LNG capacity and Arctic LNG project will come online in the next few months. Yamal LNG is already operating with a capacity of 18 million tonnes per year and most of the gas production goes to Europe and China.

BTW, the prices offered by China are not that bad. For the year 2023, Russian pipeline gas was sold at a rate of $297.30 per thousand cubic meters to China. Lower than the prices offered by Europe, but much higher than the combined production and transportation costs.

[shield132]

I have many relatives in Russia because I am from a post-soviet state. I don't know whats other's experience but many people say that situation isn't terrible in Russia as western media wants to make it but at the same time it's not good too but they say that Moscow is well as usual.
At the same time, there are people who say that Europe is weakening and they are hungry. I have many relatives and friends in Europe too because my country is alive thanks to emigrants who send money from Russia and Europe. Absolutely every immigrant that I know says that situation in EU is not as bad as some media paints. My relative in Spain says that rent and life is getting expensive there, the sam in Italy but all of my friends who live in Germany, Sweden, Norway and Ireland say that life is still good there, there is an inflation but salaries are increasing too.

[stompix]

Russia will find new customers for its natural gas. Planning for Power of Siberia 2 is in final stages, and this pipeline is expected to carry 50 billion m³ of gas annually to China. And the Power of Siberia 1 is already operating with a capacity of 38 billion m³. Also another pipeline is in plans to transport natural gas from Sakhalin Island to China, and this one is expected to have a capacity of 10 billion m³. Russia has also increased it's LNG capacity and Arctic LNG project will come online in the next few months. Yamal LNG is already operating with a capacity of 18 million tonnes per year and most of the gas production goes to Europe and China.

So you have
- 50 billion m³ additional to China
- 10 billion m³ current to China
- another expected capacity of 10 billion m³  to China

Which brings the total to 70 billions m³  and that's almost half of what Russia was exporting to Europe alone, 155 billions m³ in 2021.
Taking into account that they were already exporting to China and that PoS 2 will not be completed till 2030, yeah, genius move to lose 6/7 of your markets for at least 6 years and another half for ever.

Yeah, genius move, selling less for less, what could go wrong, no wonder it came from the same guy that planned the 3 days to Kyiv!

Within a few weeks, all these media hype about heroic Ukrainian defense will fall apart and Putin will walk away with half of Ukraine.

How I love this quote!!!!

[serveria.com]

Meanwhile, it turns out Zelensky's best buddy Macron has been buying Russian LNG like there's no tomorrow:

France has paid Russia over €600 million this year for liquefied natural gas, new data shows. That’s an EU-leading rise from last year.

Such grumbling is percolating across Europe as new data reveals France quietly ramping up gas payments to Russia just as President Emmanuel Macron loudly positions himself as one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders.

In the first three months of this year, Russian liquified natural gas deliveries to France grew more than to any other country in the EU compared to last year, according to data analyzed by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) think tank for POLITICO.

Although the fuel accounted for just five percent of the EU’s gas consumption last year, EU countries paid Moscow more than €8 billion for its exports, according to a new report from CREA out Thursday.

France is far from the only culprit. At least nine EU countries continue to buy Russian LNG, the shipping data showed. But Paris led the bloc in both absolute volumes imported in 2024 — 1.5 million tons in total — and the increase in purchases compared to the same period last year.

Source: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-talk-tough-ukraine-while-gobble-up-more-russia-gas/

[Argoo]

Meanwhile, it turns out Zelensky's best buddy Macron has been buying Russian LNG like there's no tomorrow:

If tomorrow does not come, then gas in this case is no longer needed, just like gold, bitcoin, or other material goods and values. But seriously, in the long term Russia loses in this situation in any case. The main thing is that the EU countries have already taken a course towards stopping the supply of Russian gas and oil. Moreover, not only Russian fossil fuels. The European Union will move relatively quickly to alternative energy sources. It is clear that this will not happen in one day or even a year. But their consumption volumes will decrease constantly until gas and oil as energy sources completely disappear from their consumption structure. It no longer matters that in certain periods and in certain countries this will happen in a zigzag manner. The essence does not change from this.

At the same time, oil and gas reserves in Russia are being depleted. In some fields, oil already contains 90 percent water. And there have been no other explored large sources for a long time. So in Russia, like the war in Ukraine, everything is going according to plan.

[Argoo]

Due to the loss of the European market for its gas, Russia is very quickly turning into a raw material colony of China. Until 2027, China will buy gas from Russia at a discount of more than 28%. The basic scenario of the forecast envisages the sale of Russian gas to China already in 2024 at a price of $257 per thousand cubic meters. For comparison: Europe and Türkiye buy the same gas for $320. In the next three years, the Chinese will have the opportunity to purchase Russian gas even cheaper - with a discount of 28%. At the same time, every subsequent year the cost of “blue fuel” from the Russian Federation for China will decrease: in 2025 it will be $243.7, in 2026 $233, and in 2027 $227.

Due to aggression against Ukraine, Russia lost the European market in 2022, which is not only more favorable in terms of prices, but also more convenient in terms of logistics. The Russian Federation rushed to urgently redistribute supplies, trying to take a place in the markets of the East. However, no one there needs Russian gas; they agree to buy it only at large discounts. Now supplies of pipeline Russian gas to Europe have fallen to their lowest level since the 70s of the last century. If before the war the Russian Federation exported 201 billion cubic meters. m, then at the moment supply volumes have decreased to 45 billion cubic meters and continue to decline. Last year, 2023, Gazprom had to take an unprecedented step in its history and cut production by a quarter. This was a necessary measure, since after the loss of the European market there was nowhere to put gas.
What can we call this if not a disgrace for Russia and Putin personally?

Currently, the Russian Federation exports about 22.7 billion cubic meters to China through its Power of Siberia pipeline. Moscow is making plans to increase export volumes to 38 billion cubic meters by 2025. Moreover, the Kremlin is also persistently persuading Beijing to invest in the construction of a new gas pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters, but without much success. The Chinese authorities, apparently, do not want to repeat the mistake of Europe by becoming energy dependent on the Russian Federation.