Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[Argoo]

Two weeks ago, there was a statement from the Uniper CEO (Klaus-Dieter Maubach) regarding Nord Stream pipeline. He claimed that the damaged pipelines can be repaired in 6 to 12 months. But then the question remains on whether Germany wants to continue its deal with Gazprom. Equinor has already stated that they can't work on the repairs because of sanctions, and that is going to make the pipeline repair extremely expensive (if it is even considered). On top of that, the damaged section of the pipeline lies in the exclusive economic zones of Danmark and Sweden, which complicates this matter further.

The German energy giant Uniper is known for reporting a record 40 billion euros in net losses in the first 9 months of 2022 - after the Russian Federation cut off gas supplies, and therefore sued Russian Gazprom, as well as for the fact that in Germany it is planned to partially nationalize.
Of course, Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Mobach is interested in renovating Nord Stream. But the German government has already categorically stated that in connection with the military aggression of Russia against Ukraine, the work of the Nord Stream will not be resumed and completely refused to purchase Russian gas and oil. Yes, and it is becoming more and more difficult to resume the Nord Stream every day, since sea water got into the pipes, which quickly corrodes the metal inside, where protection is not provided.

Klaus-Dieter Mobach himself plans to retire due to the nationalization of the enterprise by the German government, Reuters reports citing a company statement.

[serveria.com]

^^^ I am curious to know from where the gas supplies will be sourced. Right now, Azerbaijan is the only source and most of their gas supplies are contracted to Turkey. There are other potential sources and the most important one is Turkemistan. But their gas supply is under long-term contract with China and Turkmenistan is not in a position to antagonize Russia at this point. Iran can be ruled out, due to geopolitical considerations. Then we have some undeveloped deposits in Egypt and Cyprus. But it will take at least a decade to develop these deposits.

The answer is simple - Russia. The "we're not buying Russian gas" narrative has become popular in Europe lately but that's in fact a part of anti-Russian propaganda. Very few countries export their own gas and Russia is one of these countries. Many countries claim they're buying from Norway and the US but in most cases it's the same Russian gas resold by these countries. Also in this post above "Southern Gas Corridor" most probably means Russian gas resold by Turkey.   

[DrBeer]

A little about the new "achievements" of the so-called "great Russia"  

1. The sun and wind overtook gas and coal in the energy balance of Europe in 2022.
And only Putin and Medvedev, stuck in the 20th century, continue to scream about how bad it will be for Europe without Russian raw materials.

2. Russian budget revenue faltered in 2023 - there is an incredible hole - expenses are many times more than income
Budget expenditures of the Russian Federation in January 2023 increased by 70% compared to January 2022 - up to 3.12 trillion rubles.
Budget revenues of the Russian Federation in January 2023 decreased by 74% compared to January 2022 - to 547 billion rubles

3. An interesting fact from the field of "entertaining mathematics: over the past 10 years, the nominal pensions of Russians have grown from 7476 rubles to 16400 rubles, that is, from 246 to 224 dollars ))) Dada is exactly what they say "increased from 246 to 224 dollars" !

4. Russian gas deliveries to Europe have crashed from 3.2 billion cubic meters a week 2 years ago to about 0.3 billion cubic meters now. Crash 10 times. Minus hundreds of billions of dollars a year.

5. Residents of Ufa went on pickets to the mayor's office because of the lack of gas and hot water in their apartments for two months.
"Gas in Europe, Ufa in the ass!"

But the Kremlin's propaganda squeals that Europe is already frozen without Russian gas

6. The number of aircraft accidents is growing in Russia. Experts are waiting for disasters: no one checks the quality of parts from India, Africa and Iran

7. Car production in Russia has collapsed to a minimum since the Brezhnev era. 450 thousand cars in cars a year - so little has the auto industry produced since the early 1970s.

8. Rosstat reported on the reduction of the population of Russia for the fifth year in a row
Russia is dying at a rate of 1.5 thousand people a day, and lost more than 500 thousand inhabitants in a year.
And this is OFFICIAL data. Knowing that they always lie, we can talk about a population reduction of about 1 million people. in year. Well, what do you want - a great country! 

[MusaPk]

Turkmenistan is not the most reliable source, their usage is already high enough that doesn't leave that much for exports.
Iran is already selling some small gas to Turkey which Turkey resells part of it to Europe and I don't see that increasing as you can already guess why.
Russia is also already a source for Europe whether through Turkey or other middle countries or through LNG.
Azerbaijan is also not that reliable since the regime in Baku is too unstable and riddled with a lot of problems internally.
One source you missed was the separatist controlled Iraq-Kurdistan but those hopes went up in smokes a couple of months ago when Iraq military took back control over that region...

Meanwhile from energy perspective news are not good for Pakistan. As Iran has given deadline to Pakistan to complete his portion of gas pipeline by March 2024 or pay fine of 18 Billion usd. Pakistan at the moment is energy starved but due to sanctions on Iran and pressure on Pakistan from US, the pipeline work on Pakistan side is still pending.
This gas pipeline can give new life to economy and people of Pakistan but USA doesn't want this to kick off. Result is more sufferings for People of Pakistan.

Iran Warns Pakistan To Complete Pipeline Or Face $18B Penalty

[pooya87]

As Iran has given deadline to Pakistan to complete his portion of gas pipeline by March 2024 or pay fine of 18 Billion usd.

FWIW the source of the news you shared is not a reliable source at all, additionally those behind it are considered as members of a terrorist organization.

The news itself is manipulated quote of a quote from an unknown source in Pakistani local media so it also is not reliable. Besides the contract they are talking about mandated Pakistan to pay a fine ever since January 2015 and Iran hasn't been enforcing that to this day (that's 7 years) and there is no reason to suddenly start demanding a penalty out of nowhere now that the eastern neighbor is already in some economical hardship.

[MusaPk]

As Iran has given deadline to Pakistan to complete his portion of gas pipeline by March 2024 or pay fine of 18 Billion usd.

FWIW the source of the news you shared is not a reliable source at all, additionally those behind it are considered as members of a terrorist organization.

The news itself is manipulated quote of a quote from an unknown source in Pakistani local media so it also is not reliable. Besides the contract they are talking about mandated Pakistan to pay a fine ever since January 2015 and Iran hasn't been enforcing that to this day (that's 7 years) and there is no reason to suddenly start demanding a penalty out of nowhere now that the eastern neighbor is already in some economical hardship.

That's why I am in shock that during such economic turmoil Iran is doing this to Pakistan. I found this news in Pakistan top news paper also. The news paper saying this news is confirmed by senor official of Pakistan Ministry of Energy. IMO Iran is doing so just to push Pakistan to start working on the project. The gas project was signed in 2009 but still pipeline work on Pakistan side is pending.

Iran dangles threat of $18bn penalty over pipeline project

[og kush420]

As Iran has given deadline to Pakistan to complete his portion of gas pipeline by March 2024 or pay fine of 18 Billion usd.

FWIW the source of the news you shared is not a reliable source at all, additionally those behind it are considered as members of a terrorist organization.

The news itself is manipulated quote of a quote from an unknown source in Pakistani local media so it also is not reliable. Besides the contract they are talking about mandated Pakistan to pay a fine ever since January 2015 and Iran hasn't been enforcing that to this day (that's 7 years) and there is no reason to suddenly start demanding a penalty out of nowhere now that the eastern neighbor is already in some economical hardship.

That is correct news - Iran has given the deadline or they will sue Pakistan
Pakistan needs to stand up for the welfare of their people now

[coupable]

As Iran has given deadline to Pakistan to complete his portion of gas pipeline by March 2024 or pay fine of 18 Billion usd.

FWIW the source of the news you shared is not a reliable source at all, additionally those behind it are considered as members of a terrorist organization.

The news itself is manipulated quote of a quote from an unknown source in Pakistani local media so it also is not reliable. Besides the contract they are talking about mandated Pakistan to pay a fine ever since January 2015 and Iran hasn't been enforcing that to this day (that's 7 years) and there is no reason to suddenly start demanding a penalty out of nowhere now that the eastern neighbor is already in some economical hardship.

That's why I am in shock that during such economic turmoil Iran is doing this to Pakistan. I found this news in Pakistan top news paper also. The news paper saying this news is confirmed by senor official of Pakistan Ministry of Energy. IMO Iran is doing so just to push Pakistan to start working on the project. The gas project was signed in 2009 but still pipeline work on Pakistan side is pending.

Iran dangles threat of $18bn penalty over pipeline project

This is an old project that was supposed to be operational in 2015. According to the initial terms of the contract (before the amendment), each of the two countries will build the pipeline on its land, and perhaps it was this clause that delayed the completion of the project because Pakistan has been 12 years ago (the date of signing the agreement). It was possible to request construction offers from one of the companies that will undertake the construction of the entire line.
The problem, in my opinion, is the United State, a strong ally of Pakistan, which wants Iran to remain isolated even from its neighbors, although this has cost it the loss of a vital line of gas supplies and it may find itself required to pay a ransom by 2024 if the terms of the contract are not fulfilled.

[Cryptock]

A little about the new "achievements" of the so-called "great Russia"  

1. The sun and wind overtook gas and coal in the energy balance of Europe in 2022.
And only Putin and Medvedev, stuck in the 20th century, continue to scream about how bad it will be for Europe without Russian raw materials.

2. Russian budget revenue faltered in 2023 - there is an incredible hole - expenses are many times more than income
Budget expenditures of the Russian Federation in January 2023 increased by 70% compared to January 2022 - up to 3.12 trillion rubles.
Budget revenues of the Russian Federation in January 2023 decreased by 74% compared to January 2022 - to 547 billion rubles

3. An interesting fact from the field of "entertaining mathematics: over the past 10 years, the nominal pensions of Russians have grown from 7476 rubles to 16400 rubles, that is, from 246 to 224 dollars ))) Dada is exactly what they say "increased from 246 to 224 dollars" !

4. Russian gas deliveries to Europe have crashed from 3.2 billion cubic meters a week 2 years ago to about 0.3 billion cubic meters now. Crash 10 times. Minus hundreds of billions of dollars a year.

5. Residents of Ufa went on pickets to the mayor's office because of the lack of gas and hot water in their apartments for two months.
"Gas in Europe, Ufa in the ass!"

But the Kremlin's propaganda squeals that Europe is already frozen without Russian gas

6. The number of aircraft accidents is growing in Russia. Experts are waiting for disasters: no one checks the quality of parts from India, Africa and Iran

7. Car production in Russia has collapsed to a minimum since the Brezhnev era. 450 thousand cars in cars a year - so little has the auto industry produced since the early 1970s.

8. Rosstat reported on the reduction of the population of Russia for the fifth year in a row
Russia is dying at a rate of 1.5 thousand people a day, and lost more than 500 thousand inhabitants in a year.
And this is OFFICIAL data. Knowing that they always lie, we can talk about a population reduction of about 1 million people. in year. Well, what do you want - a great country!  

great list so far.
I wish both the countries sit on the table and decide in the interest and the welfare of their people now but they give power more importance than human and that is one of the reasons they can kill people for the sake of their power.

[Theones]

Two weeks ago, there was a statement from the Uniper CEO (Klaus-Dieter Maubach) regarding Nord Stream pipeline. He claimed that the damaged pipelines can be repaired in 6 to 12 months. But then the question remains on whether Germany wants to continue its deal with Gazprom. Equinor has already stated that they can't work on the repairs because of sanctions, and that is going to make the pipeline repair extremely expensive (if it is even considered). On top of that, the damaged section of the pipeline lies in the exclusive economic zones of Danmark and Sweden, which complicates this matter further.

The German energy giant Uniper is known for reporting a record 40 billion euros in net losses in the first 9 months of 2022 - after the Russian Federation cut off gas supplies, and therefore sued Russian Gazprom, as well as for the fact that in Germany it is planned to partially nationalize.
Of course, Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Mobach is interested in renovating Nord Stream. But the German government has already categorically stated that in connection with the military aggression of Russia against Ukraine, the work of the Nord Stream will not be resumed and completely refused to purchase Russian gas and oil. Yes, and it is becoming more and more difficult to resume the Nord Stream every day, since sea water got into the pipes, which quickly corrodes the metal inside, where protection is not provided.

Klaus-Dieter Mobach himself plans to retire due to the nationalization of the enterprise by the German government, Reuters reports citing a company statement.

I read in the forum - Back in 2020, Russia was supplying gas at the rate of $120 per thousand cubic meters. And now the Americans are trying to set a long-term contract, which is more than three times this price. This oil and gas war has made more deaths in the world than any other thing so far.

[Argoo]

I read in the forum - Back in 2020, Russia was supplying gas at the rate of $120 per thousand cubic meters. And now the Americans are trying to set a long-term contract, which is more than three times this price. This oil and gas war has made more deaths in the world than any other thing so far.

In January, Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed: Reuters reported that the decline in the first month of 2023 will be almost 30% compared to the same period last year.

Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed by about $8 billion (more than 565 billion rubles) in January, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said. Thus, the decline in the first month of 2023 will be almost 30% compared to the same period last year, said Birol, quoted by Reuters.

The growth in oil demand this year will be provided by China, which has become one of the two largest oil importers from Russia, Birol noted. This may force the OPEC + countries to revise the agreement on the level of production, the head of the IEA added.

The European embargo and the ceiling on oil prices led to a collapse in budget revenues by 400 billion rubles in December compared to forecasts.
Going forward, Russian energy export revenues may fall even further. On February 5, the European embargo on oil products from Russia came into force, which is expected to affect the Russian economy more seriously than restrictions on crude oil that have been in place since early December.

[og kush420]

I read in the forum - Back in 2020, Russia was supplying gas at the rate of $120 per thousand cubic meters. And now the Americans are trying to set a long-term contract, which is more than three times this price. This oil and gas war has made more deaths in the world than any other thing so far.

In January, Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed: Reuters reported that the decline in the first month of 2023 will be almost 30% compared to the same period last year.

Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed by about $8 billion (more than 565 billion rubles) in January, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said. Thus, the decline in the first month of 2023 will be almost 30% compared to the same period last year, said Birol, quoted by Reuters.

The growth in oil demand this year will be provided by China, which has become one of the two largest oil importers from Russia, Birol noted. This may force the OPEC + countries to revise the agreement on the level of production, the head of the IEA added.

The European embargo and the ceiling on oil prices led to a collapse in budget revenues by 400 billion rubles in December compared to forecasts.
Going forward, Russian energy export revenues may fall even further. On February 5, the European embargo on oil products from Russia came into force, which is expected to affect the Russian economy more seriously than restrictions on crude oil that have been in place since early December.

Now there are new cap imposed by EU on Russia for High-value Russian exports such as diesel and gasoline, will be capped at $100 while lower-value products such as fuel oil will be capped at $45.
While the other oil product will be banned. I think EU and other super power are trying to weaken Russia and that is only their agenda - Ukraine is the victim to be used for all this. No leader have mercy!

[Synchronice]

Your country managed to deal with the crisis in a way better than many of the analysts anticipated.

Hah, you can find "analysts" predicting all sorts of thing but you had to be very naive to believe those fearmongers "predicting" that EU would freeze to death.

Let's be frank, Europe was helped not by analysts' mistakes, but by this abnormally warm winter. There has never been a frost so far this winter.

Let's be frank, in all sincerity, do you really believe that Western European families were sitting at home or at work with winter coats in a cold environment and because of the warm winter, they managed to escape? Do you really believe that? Don't you want to just visit Europe for a while to see reality yourself?

God for you. For people like me, who are residing in third world nations, the main concern is to keep the inflation rates stable. A few years back, annual inflation rate was 3% to 4%. Now it has risen to around 6%, and the ongoing war has a made its impact.

EU is affected as well, but unfortunately its always the poorer parts of the world that are more affected in times of a global economic crisis. Exactly for that reason I couldn't wrap my head around why people from Pakistan are worrying about how an average German who has God knows how much more money than he will pay his gas bill (and even spread obvious lies while doing so) instead focusing on themselves.

I'll be honest, people inside the country don't worry as much as people outside the country. Maybe that's why we manage to keep so high standards of living because everyone around the world is so worried when something slightly bad happens there.
It's funny how people from least developed countries and developing countries don't give a F to inside politics, to their own quality of life, to their salary, etc but finds a time to express their emotions around developed and rich Western European countries.
I think these people are very envious. We have the life they want but can't achieve and they get happy when they see if something bad happens to us. They want to see us on their level and watch us from above. But it's impossible even in their best dreams.

[Theones]

I read in the forum - Back in 2020, Russia was supplying gas at the rate of $120 per thousand cubic meters. And now the Americans are trying to set a long-term contract, which is more than three times this price. This oil and gas war has made more deaths in the world than any other thing so far.

In January, Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed: Reuters reported that the decline in the first month of 2023 will be almost 30% compared to the same period last year.

Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed by about $8 billion (more than 565 billion rubles) in January, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said. Thus, the decline in the first month of 2023 will be almost 30% compared to the same period last year, said Birol, quoted by Reuters.

The growth in oil demand this year will be provided by China, which has become one of the two largest oil importers from Russia, Birol noted. This may force the OPEC + countries to revise the agreement on the level of production, the head of the IEA added.

The European embargo and the ceiling on oil prices led to a collapse in budget revenues by 400 billion rubles in December compared to forecasts.
Going forward, Russian energy export revenues may fall even further. On February 5, the European embargo on oil products from Russia came into force, which is expected to affect the Russian economy more seriously than restrictions on crude oil that have been in place since early December.

We have heard the same months ago that Russian Economy has collapsed - but they are fighting till date and the other super power are trying to join hand with Russia.
My PM wanted to remain out of that battle but he was forced to give his statement against Russia - that is how USA dictates to the other world

[pooya87]

The news itself is manipulated quote of a quote from an unknown source in Pakistani local media

That's why I am in shock that during such economic turmoil Iran is doing this to Pakistan. I found this news in Pakistan top news paper also. The news paper saying this news is confirmed by senor official of Pakistan Ministry of Energy. IMO Iran is doing so just to push Pakistan to start working on the project. The gas project was signed in 2009 but still pipeline work on Pakistan side is pending.

Iran dangles threat of $18bn penalty over pipeline project

That's the correct link and that was the original quote I mentioned in my previous post and it says "an official" without saying who they were or what their position were in the ministry! This is the problem with this type of news in the mainstream media. They never mention their source. It is always a "reliable source" an "official", etc.

The fact is that the contract has been in place for years and Iran has been pushing Pakistan to finish the project so that they can help their own economy by importing cheap Iranian gas for just as long. The thing about paying a fine is also not a new thing and as I said to this day Iran hasn't enforced it even though legally speaking Pakistan should have paid the fine 7 years ago.

[Smartprofit]

I read in the forum - Back in 2020, Russia was supplying gas at the rate of $120 per thousand cubic meters. And now the Americans are trying to set a long-term contract, which is more than three times this price. This oil and gas war has made more deaths in the world than any other thing so far.

In January, Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed: Reuters reported that the decline in the first month of 2023 will be almost 30% compared to the same period last year.

Russia's oil and gas export revenues collapsed by about $8 billion (more than 565 billion rubles) in January, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said. Thus, the decline in the first month of 2023 will be almost 30% compared to the same period last year, said Birol, quoted by Reuters.

The growth in oil demand this year will be provided by China, which has become one of the two largest oil importers from Russia, Birol noted. This may force the OPEC + countries to revise the agreement on the level of production, the head of the IEA added.

The European embargo and the ceiling on oil prices led to a collapse in budget revenues by 400 billion rubles in December compared to forecasts.
Going forward, Russian energy export revenues may fall even further. On February 5, the European embargo on oil products from Russia came into force, which is expected to affect the Russian economy more seriously than restrictions on crude oil that have been in place since early December.

We have heard the same months ago that Russian Economy has collapsed - but they are fighting till date and the other super power are trying to join hand with Russia.
My PM wanted to remain out of that battle but he was forced to give his statement against Russia - that is how USA dictates to the other world

The Russian economy may turn into a wartime economy.  It's not very nice to write about, but it's a possible scenario. 

Many people are the beneficiary of the current situation.  These are entrepreneurs who are now earning super profits in conditions when foreign companies have left Russia.  These people do not have the opportunity to withdraw their capital outside the Russian Federation, so they will invest in the Russian economy.

It is likely that there will be difficulties with something, for example, in the field of air transportation, but much will be restored in a more simplified form. 

For example, there will be fewer high-speed trains in the country, but at the same time, the railway communication will function stably. 

Some degradation of technological infrastructure is unlikely to be avoided, but critical infrastructure is likely to function normally.

[Sithara007]

That's the correct link and that was the original quote I mentioned in my previous post and it says "an official" without saying who they were or what their position were in the ministry! This is the problem with this type of news in the mainstream media. They never mention their source. It is always a "reliable source" an "official", etc.

The fact is that the contract has been in place for years and Iran has been pushing Pakistan to finish the project so that they can help their own economy by importing cheap Iranian gas for just as long. The thing about paying a fine is also not a new thing and as I said to this day Iran hasn't enforced it even though legally speaking Pakistan should have paid the fine 7 years ago.

There is enormous pressure from the United States not to complete this pipeline. With Pakistan being so dependent on both the United States and Saudi Arabia for their funds, at this point they can't take any concrete action on the pipeline. If the pipeline was completed on time, it would have been mutually beneficial for both the countries (Iran and Pakistan), but none of the politicians in Pakistan has the balls to stand up against instructions from the US.

For Iran, the ultimate aim was to extend the pipeline to India, which would have assured it of stable revenues. Pakistan would also gain in the form of transit fees. But then, the India-Pakistan relations worsened and they remain at that state for more than a decade now.

[pooya87]

but none of the politicians in Pakistan has the balls to stand up against instructions from the US.

It's not about that. Their politicians are faced with all bad options, some are worse than others so they try to choose the option with the least negative consequences. Unfortunately that option is to not-complete this pipeline (which leads to energy shortage, high prices, inflation and economical hardship).

[DrBeer]

Another selection of "successes of a stable economy, great Russia"

1. Oil and gas revenues in January 2023 collapsed by almost 2 times compared to January 2022: from 795 to 426 billion rubles! Non-oil and gas companies fell by 28.1%: from 1.29 trillion to 931 billion! Spending soared by 58% - up to 3.1 trillion! The budget deficit for January exceeded 1.76 trillion rubles! This is 60% of the plan for the year

2.Gazprom stopped publishing data on gas production and export. This data is "classified". The same begins with oil statistics. I think that this will be presented to the population of Russia as "a humane step in relation to other players in the gas and oil market, so that they are not torn apart with envy", with a hint that sales have grown very much

3. The “hole” in the Russian budget has set an anti-record since the 1998 default. With revenues of 1.356 trillion rubles, the government spent 3.117 trillion. Every second ruble spent was left without tax revenue.

4. Russian Railways reported on the collapse of metal exports
Transportation of metals by rail for export fell by 23% in January.

5. Over the past 10 years, the average pension in Russia has grown from $246 to $224. No, no, this is not a mistake, that's right - it was about 246, and now it's 224, but officially - pensions have grown

6. Since mid-2022, the number of serious accidents in Russian aviation has been growing rapidly. So, throughout the first week of January, every day there were incidents with the chassis. The nature of numerous breakdowns is different, but the reason is the same, experts say - Russia's complete unpreparedness for sanctions and the lack of quality control of parts that are now bought from African partners, India and other "friendly countries". Parts are not certified.

PS. From the stands in Russia they have already begun to say:
War is a friend.
War is love.
War is the future

This is not a joke, this is REALITY, you can find the video.
Orwell is "rolling over in his grave" as his fantasy becomes reality...


Tell me - the loss of the gas market, sanctions - who created more problems?

[Sithara007]

^^^ War-time economy doesn't work like those during normal times. Brent crude has fallen to $80-85 per barrel and Urals is trading at $40 to $50 per barrel. Countries such as India and China are taking advantage of this by importing Russian crude. Given the cost of production is around $10-20 per barrel, this means that the Russian government hardly gets any revenue from the exports after the oil corporations take their cut. But they should blame themselves. They delayed LNG projects by at least a decade, and then provided Gazprom with the monopoly of international gas exports. All these stupid moves are coming back to bite them.