Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[galambo]

It can be said that almost the entire Middle East is completely controlled by the United States,
but previously what was done by Iran to get out of the shadow of the United States was certainly not easy,
actually what the United States did by controlling the middle east has been going on for a long time and we'll see what it will turn out to be

Countries like Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, KSA, Jordan were created by United Kingdom after they defeated Turkish Ottoman empire. From day one these new countries were puppets of United Kingdom which later handed over them to usa. KSA is biggest oil producer but you won't see his influence in any big forum.

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[DrBeer]

The gas ban is proving to be both. A problem for both sides. However, the long term effects will be felt more by Russia because it's easier to replace the suplier than the biyer in this case. Especialy in this capacity. It does pose a wuestion, is rhisna real turning point in earth shift towards oter sources of energy?

There is some interesting news coming in from India. Russia has become the top crude oil supplier to India for the month of June. This is happening for the first time in history, as India has always depended on oil from middle east. Russia has displaced Iraq from the no.1 spot, after 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude was imported into India last month. Not sure about gas, but from what I have heard, purchases of Russian gas by Turkey and China are at all time high levels. So in this case, it is becoming easier to replace the buyer than the supplier.

Everything is logical and true!
Few people want to buy oil from an international terrorist and finance his terrorist war in Ukraine, with the prospect of deploying it in the Baltics and other countries.

Iraq is a source of oil supplies, in replacement of terrorists' oil. And Iraq is ready to cooperate with the US and the EU in this matter. Negotiations are already underway and preliminary agreements have been reached. By the way, for some reason they don’t write about this in the Indian media?

Well, the most "cherry on the cake" - as if you didn’t like it, but excess oil from the country of a terrorist is bought by China and India at a dumping price By the way, India can make good money on oil that it buys at $ 39-42 per barrel and resells to the EU 70-80 - do not thank for the advice

[2stout]

In the short term, it appears this will be more a problem for Europe which can be solved.  However, it seems the long term affect on Russia is not going to be good as there are some negative repercussions that will occur that still aren't known.

[galambo]

Everything is logical and true!
Few people want to buy oil from an international terrorist and finance his terrorist war in Ukraine, with the prospect of deploying it in the Baltics and other countries.

Iraq is a source of oil supplies, in replacement of terrorists' oil. And Iraq is ready to cooperate with the US and the EU in this matter. Negotiations are already underway and preliminary agreements have been reached. By the way, for some reason they don’t write about this in the Indian media?

Well, the most "cherry on the cake" - as if you didn’t like it, but excess oil from the country of a terrorist is bought by China and India at a dumping price By the way, India can make good money on oil that it buys at $ 39-42 per barrel and resells to the EU 70-80 - do not thank for the advice

Same Iraq which was terrorist in 2003 for storing WMDs? Whole Iraq was rubbled and nothing was found. In the end peace loving usa and EU said we are sorry for this invasion. Now Russia is terrorist since it has attacked Pro USA and west country. If USA has courage then why not go and fight with Russia? USA knows Iraq don't have WMDs that why they attacked Iraq, Russia has WMDs that's why they are sitting and just boycotting Russian products.
I second Indian foreign minister statement that EU must stop complaining that there problems are worlds problem. EU India is doing fantastic job by buying cheap oil and giving it to its people for discounted price.

[Ozero]

In the short term, it appears this will be more a problem for Europe which can be solved.  However, it seems the long term affect on Russia is not going to be good as there are some negative repercussions that will occur that still aren't known.

Of course, the current destruction of the supply chains of Russian oil and gas to Europe in any case negatively affects the countries of Europe, as additional problems are created to replace the suppliers of these carbohydrates. But this is comparatively nothing in relation to what problems this creates for Russia, especially in the long term.

 Russia has already spent billions of dollars building Nord Stream 2 to Europe, and it turns out to be for nothing. Now building a gas pipeline to China or India in conditions when it is urgently necessary to put somewhere the surplus of produced gas is an almost impossible task. This takes a lot of time and money, and Russia has neither.

European countries are refocusing on other suppliers. This will be done within a maximum of three years. But it will be much more difficult for Russia to reorient itself to other consumers and arrange its supplies there, if it can generally find supplies for its oil and gas in such volumes. After all, it must be taken into account that almost all countries, as part of the fight against global climate change, have pledged to gradually reduce their consumption and switch to alternative energy sources.

[pooya87]

almost all countries, as part of the fight against global climate change, have pledged to gradually reduce their consumption and switch to alternative energy sources.

That was a nonsense political move to prevent industrialization of third world countries that would have competed and destroyed Western economy due to cheaper energy and products. Otherwise we saw how European countries at the head of this "pledge" were too quick to switch to coal which is the worse form of energy source.

On a related note in a series of "problems for Europe" we hear that Russia just kicked 3 Western companies out of one of the biggest oil and gas project called Sakhalin-II with a hostile take over of their shares. That's Shell plc from England and Mitsui and Mitsubishi from Japan. Their stock prices are dumping.

[YinShuiSiYuan]

There is some interesting news coming in from India. Russia has become the top crude oil supplier to India for the month of June. This is happening for the first time in history, as India has always depended on oil from middle east. Russia has displaced Iraq from the no.1 spot, after 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude was imported into India last month. Not sure about gas, but from what I have heard, purchases of Russian gas by Turkey and China are at all time high levels. So in this case, it is becoming easier to replace the buyer than the supplier.

Russia is an old and trusted ally of India. Indian defence is mostly dependent on Russian supplies until recently when India move to Western block for procurement of weapons like rafale jets. China defiantly don't wanna hurt Russia at this time when they have attacked on USA backed country directly.

[DrBeer]

There is some interesting news coming in from India. Russia has become the top crude oil supplier to India for the month of June. This is happening for the first time in history, as India has always depended on oil from middle east. Russia has displaced Iraq from the no.1 spot, after 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude was imported into India last month. Not sure about gas, but from what I have heard, purchases of Russian gas by Turkey and China are at all time high levels. So in this case, it is becoming easier to replace the buyer than the supplier.

Russia is an old and trusted ally of India. Indian defence is mostly dependent on Russian supplies until recently when India move to Western block for procurement of weapons like rafale jets. China defiantly don't wanna hurt Russia at this time when they have attacked on USA backed country directly.

You are confusing the fabulous "reliability of unparalleled Russian weapons" with corruption and manipulation! Just tell me for what reason, India abandoned both the joint project to develop a new generation fighter, and the purchase of "unparalleled", MIG flying troubles, and the curtailment of the program for the purchase of MI helicopters? Well, if Russia is such a reliable partner, and its weapons are so unique, are the government and the Indian Ministry of Defense terrible fools?
I don't think so. But I think you should read the facts about these projects, and tell here what kind of "reliable" weapon Russia has, and what kind of "reliable" partner Russia is

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

[bakasabo]

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

[Cryptock]

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

Why every other country faces sanctions but not USA? Russia is facing sanctions. China is facing sanctions. Iran and Iraq are facing sanctions so does Afghanistan.
But the other one which is putting everyone in trouble is not facing sanctions.

[Sithara007]

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

At this point, we can't rule out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And that is the main reason why China is taking a sympathetic stance to Russia at this point. The NATO-backed Ukrainian army is getting obliterated in the last few weeks, after putting up stiff resistance till end of April. China is carefully watching the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the capability of the weapons and equipment that NATO provided them. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

[bakasabo]

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

At this point, we can't rule out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And that is the main reason why China is taking a sympathetic stance to Russia at this point. The NATO-backed Ukrainian army is getting obliterated in the last few weeks, after putting up stiff resistance till end of April. China is carefully watching the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the capability of the weapons and equipment that NATO provided them. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

I hope what you are predicting will not happen. Solving issues with force is not acceptable in current century. Frankly speaking I dont fully get your post. You are trying to say, that China is learning from Russian-Ukrainian war, or getting experience from that, to start their own war against Taiwan? Hope you are wrong. But if you are right, what kind of problems would Europe get (as we are in Europe gas problem topic). Lack of electronics?

[rodskee]

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

At this point, we can't rule out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And that is the main reason why China is taking a sympathetic stance to Russia at this point. The NATO-backed Ukrainian army is getting obliterated in the last few weeks, after putting up stiff resistance till end of April. China is carefully watching the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the capability of the weapons and equipment that NATO provided them. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

The claim of China to Taiwan has been on going for long time now and Taiwan continues to resist , with Ukraine Russia war it seems that these 2 country are starting our fearing WorldWar 3 , and with all this happening it is seemingly to come ,
but lets Hope and Pray that everything will be put on the table and the action of both countries will change and peace takes place once more.

[Argoo]

China will neither harm nor help Russia - why? If very soon most of the Trans-Urals will go to China, and so ?!

China will stand aside, because they are smart. They will wait while others gnaw at each other and finish the remained one. China does not need to be involve into this mess. While others fight, they make their economy stronger. How many articles there are on the forum about financial difficulties, inflation and etc? A lot. How many of them are China related? Guess not many. Did China nominate sanctions against Russia? I think yes, but they are not as serious as other countries did. China is ready to substitute everything that Russia has lost due sanctions. China is ready to make and produce everything in double size for the whole world.

At this point, we can't rule out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And that is the main reason why China is taking a sympathetic stance to Russia at this point. The NATO-backed Ukrainian army is getting obliterated in the last few weeks, after putting up stiff resistance till end of April. China is carefully watching the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the capability of the weapons and equipment that NATO provided them. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

Are you saying that the Ukrainian army has been destroyed in the last few weeks after putting up stubborn resistance until the end of April? And why did the Armed Forces of Ukraine resist only until the end of April? Until today, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are very professionally and successfully fighting against the many times superior forces of the Russians. The war has been going on for the fifth month, and the occupiers have nothing to brag about. Refusing to capture the whole of Ukraine precisely in connection with stubborn resistance, they concentrated their main forces on the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, located in the Lugansk region. In this direction, the Russians had about a tenfold superiority in manpower and equipment. The task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was to delay the offensive and cause maximum damage to the attackers while weapons were coming from the West, which was successfully done. The Russians lost under these cities about 7,000 of their soldiers and many tanks and armored vehicles. As a result, the Ukrainians retreated in an organized manner to the new prepared lines, completely preserving their army.

While the Russian grouping has run out of steam in this area and has actually lost its combat effectiveness, which is why Putin said that after the capture of these cities they can now rest and regroup, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have now launched a counteroffensive in three directions at once. Thanks to the received HIMARS systems, about 20 Russian ammunition depots have been destroyed in recent days, as well as other important targets. In this regard, the Russians will soon have nothing to fight with.

Let me remind you that the losses of Russia in this war today, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are:
- 36,350 soldiers and officers,
- 1594 tanks,
- 3772 armored vehicles,
- 217 aircraft,
- 187 helicopters,
- 806 artillery systems,
- 247 MLRS,
- 105 air defense systems,
- 2634 different vehicles,
- 660 UAVs,
- 15 ships and boats, etc.

[Smartprofit]

Let's keep in mind some important facts from the very beginning:
1. 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 came from oil and natural gas revenues
2. 49% of Russia's crude oil and condensate exports went to European OECD nations.
3. Supplies from Russia account for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports
4. just under three-quarters of all Russian natural gas exports went to European countries in 2021

I hate when everyone talks about how is Europe, especially Germany going to replace the dependence on Russian gas? Wait, 20 centuries have passed without Russian gas and European countries still managed to not only survive but become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.


How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia will try to increase its oil and gas export in China & India but we should also don't forget some details:
1. The reason why I underlined Saudi Arabia is that they are one of the largest suppliers in these countries and probably they won't let Russia to easily take over them.
2. China and India probably sees that good relationship with West is better for them and they may see that Russia isn't a country that loves freedom.
3. China may use this as an advantage and milk Russia like a cow, good for China but not for Russia.


Europe & USA have a huge advantage over Russia, this is the education. Where do people go dream to study? In Russia, no! In the USA, UK, Germany, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland and other countries? Hell yes! Were top scientists from Russia? Hell no! But from western countries - hell yes.


The fact is the fact - war has one advantage, it always accelerates things up. In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries. Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

Europe's purchase of Russian gas is a perfectly reasonable business deal. 

However, Russia, instead of simply trading its resources, investing in advanced modern technologies, is engaged in idiotic geopolitical adventures. 

In my opinion, this is a huge mistake and a terrible catastrophe (for Russia and its population in the first place). 

If we talk about ensuring the energy independence of Europe, then this is primarily the development of nuclear energy.  At the same time, one must understand that the construction of new nuclear power plants is not welcomed by the majority of the population of the European Union.  Nevertheless, there is no alternative to such unpopular decisions now.  Currently, India and China are actively buying oil and gas from Russia and pumping them into their storage facilities. 

It is likely that in the future this oil and gas will be resold to European countries (thus, after the rebranding, this oil and gas will still enter the European market in 2023).

[be.open]

Russia’s squeeze on gas undermines Germany’s economic model

German authorities plan to supply LNG could be thwarted due to lack of tankers

In Germany, there is already natural hysteria about the imminent shutdown of the Nord Stream for scheduled repairs.

[pooya87]

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will happen all of a sudden without any warning, and that will be 100 times bloodier than the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

I think the chances of such invasion went down a little after US State Department officially denounced Taiwan's independence. However, there is a good chance that China still invades but after it got a little colder so that it can put a lot more pressure on the West if they decided to help Taiwan.

In Germany, there is already natural hysteria about the imminent shutdown of the Nord Stream for scheduled repairs.

You gotta love how these very natural things are happening one by one. All of a sudden Russia has "scheduled repairs", China has a COVID outbreak and shuts down its ports, Iran delays allowing US to come back to JCPOA.
I even hear Yemen is getting ready to blow up Saudi Aramco again. $200 oil is coming?

[be.open]

In Germany, there is already natural hysteria about the imminent shutdown of the Nord Stream for scheduled repairs.

You gotta love how these very natural things are happening one by one. All of a sudden Russia has "scheduled repairs", China has a COVID outbreak and shuts down its ports, Iran delays allowing US to come back to JCPOA.
I even hear Yemen is getting ready to blow up Saudi Aramco again. $200 oil is coming?

Generally speaking, the repair is really scheduled, it happens every year (the Turkish Stream was also recently stopped for scheduled repairs). But Germany is seriously afraid that Russia will not resume gas supply via Nord Stream after a scheduled repair, and there are quite good reasons for this - Canada did not return the Siemens turbine sent for repair due to sanctions. And suddenly it turned out that the prospect of being left without pipeline gas from Russia for Germany is simply catastrophic. Germany is not ready for this, it has no alternative, no terminals for receiving LNG, no free tankers to bring liquefied gas, and all resource-intensive industries are already on the verge of shutdown and bankruptcy. This is a direct response to the title of the topic - for Germany, the ban of Russian gas is economic and energy suicide.

[bakasabo]

Let me remind you that the losses of Russia in this war today, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are:
- 36,350 soldiers and officers,
- 1594 tanks,
- 3772 armored vehicles,
- 217 aircraft,
- 187 helicopters,
- 806 artillery systems,
- 247 MLRS,
- 105 air defense systems,
- 2634 different vehicles,
- 660 UAVs,
- 15 ships and boats, etc.

To see whole picture of what is going around, it would be fair if you would post identical losses of Ukraine. Because from your post it looks that Ukraine havent lost anything, except civilians.

Wonder if it is possible to calculate how much Russia gained or will gain from increased gas and oil prices. It will be sad if due to increased prices, Russia managed to cover expenses spent on army.

Btw, Russian Gas is not the only problem of Europe. Right now we face electricity price increase also.

[be.open]

Btw, Russian Gas is not the only problem of Europe. Right now we face electricity price increase also.

Europe's problem is energy shortage. A significant part of the gas is used to generate electricity at thermal power plants, so the reduction in pipeline gas supplies directly affects the reduction in electricity generation. Of course, there are other factors (problems with nuclear power plants in France, an embargo on Russian pipeline oil, an embargo on Russian coal, recent fire at an LNG plant in Texas, low electricity generation at wind farms and a general fuckup of renewable energy).