Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[Erumo]

Did Russia really introduced a single sanction against other country since Feb 2022 ? Never heard of that.

[bittraffic]

Of course the most loss is Europe because gas supply is not easy and it is very difficult to find alternative energy for gas, especially many countries that are very dependent on Russian gas so that it becomes a strong bargaining value so that Europe does not dare to attack or invasion Russia.

The war has entered its 10th month, Russia and the EU have continuously introduced sanctions against each other, so far no country has won a victory. Recently, the EU also launched new sanctions to impose an oil price ceiling on Russia and Russia threatened to retaliate. Overall, Russia is unlikely to be damaged and the EU is unlikely to win. But what I see is that oil supply will be cut and oil prices will skyrocket in the near term is very high and the world will continue to fall into the energy crisis again and push inflation higher.

Inflation going higher is where we are going with all these sanctions that never affect Russia but only accumulated allies instead. We have already seen some news about the EU not being united anymore. And there was an attempted coup in Germany.

Gas is already higher 10 months ago and with OPEC cutting more of thier production, we're de-industrialized day by day.

[Maidak]

Of course the most loss is Europe because gas supply is not easy and it is very difficult to find alternative energy for gas, especially many countries that are very dependent on Russian gas so that it becomes a strong bargaining value so that Europe does not dare to attack or invasion Russia.

The war has entered its 10th month, Russia and the EU have continuously introduced sanctions against each other, so far no country has won a victory. Recently, the EU also launched new sanctions to impose an oil price ceiling on Russia and Russia threatened to retaliate. Overall, Russia is unlikely to be damaged and the EU is unlikely to win. But what I see is that oil supply will be cut and oil prices will skyrocket in the near term is very high and the world will continue to fall into the energy crisis again and push inflation higher.

I have read several analysts' predictions and most believe that Russia will win the oil price ceiling war and that European sanctions will backfire. This is also possible, Russia may experience a reduction in production when it is determined not to sell oil at a ceiling price. However, supply disruptions will push prices up again, and they can still make a significant profit. OPEC still maintains its decision to reduce oil production until the end of 2023, which is considered a decision in favor of Russia.

Inflation going higher is where we are going with all these sanctions that never affect Russia but only accumulated allies instead. We have already seen some news about the EU not being united anymore. And there was an attempted coup in Germany.

This is a battle of endurance, whoever holds out longer wins, the lack of gas and gasoline is not pleasant at all. I also predict the EU will become even more divided if this oil price ceiling fails again.

[pooya87]

Did Russia really introduced a single sanction against other country since Feb 2022 ? Never heard of that.

When they shut off the valve to their gas pipelines going towards Europe or when they stopped grains shipments, etc. that is also a form of a sanction without branding it.

I have read several analysts' predictions and most believe that Russia will win the oil price ceiling war and that European sanctions will backfire.

Like any war, this energy war result is also not possible to predict. There are battles in this war that West wins and some battles that East wins while the war is not yet over.
Considering that so far the oil producing countries are working together and reduce production and keep the price up, the chances of Eastern Bloc winning is higher.

P.S. The recent disruptions in China which is one of the biggest buyers of oil has helped the price dump recently. We've to wait and see how their comeback and their big buys (specially after the recent visit to Saudi Arabia) is going to affect the market.

[electronicash]

Did Russia really introduced a single sanction against other country since Feb 2022 ? Never heard of that.

When they shut off the valve to their gas pipelines going towards Europe or when they stopped grains shipments, etc. that is also a form of a sanction without branding it.

I have read several analysts' predictions and most believe that Russia will win the oil price ceiling war and that European sanctions will backfire.

Like any war, this energy war result is also not possible to predict. There are battles in this war that West wins and some battles that East wins while the war is not yet over.
Considering that so far the oil producing countries are working together and reduce production and keep the price up, the chances of Eastern Bloc winning is higher.

P.S. The recent disruptions in China which is one of the biggest buyers of oil has helped the price dump recently. We've to wait and see how their comeback and their big buys (specially after the recent visit to Saudi Arabia) is going to affect the market.

not selling to countries who participated in the gas ceiling is one of the Russia's sanction. more like a retaliation to that gas cap.
its why it doesn't make sense blowing up the pipeline going to Europe when they could just shut the valve. but now that its blown, EU have no choice anymore. they could make a deal still if they have that pipe operating again.

EU in between suffer the cold winter and economic collapse as well as Russia not able to make money from the west and isolated.
they could really escalate this to WW3 while not using nukes but they didn't. this is just prolonging the suffering of the people.

[DrBeer]

~

You missed the whole point. The point wasn't about Russian oil price but the shittiness of mainstream media.

One day bloomberg is focusing on the shipments that are sold under the price cap with the title "swaths of Russian oil is trading far below G7 $60" and the other day they are focusing on shipments that are being sold above it just because the social trend has changed specially with the ongoing protests with the title saying "easy freight helps Russian oil hold above G7 $60 cap". Keep in mind that the majority of the audience only reads the titles not the content.

To put it in bitcoin terms, it is very similar to what the bitcoin news sites do. One day they are talking about how bitcoin is going to the moon ($1 million) because the social mood is up and price went up 10% and the other day they are talking about bitcoin is dying (down to $1) because price dropped -10 %.

Here I absolutely agree with you. Unfortunately, today the media are very sinful or biased, or custom-made materials, or simply venality. In some countries, the media is generally a tame dog of the regime, which will write everything they say to it, even if it is an insult to their father or mother! Therefore, I try not to use the media as a source of correct information. For a slightly more complicated way of obtaining objective data, you can use stock data, country statistics. According to tax collections, social spending and other statistical indicators, many other indicators can be calculated - from the average income level to the number of residents, the number of pensioners, the trend in the economy (growth or fall) and much more!

[og kush420]

Did Russia really introduced a single sanction against other country since Feb 2022 ? Never heard of that.

When they shut off the valve to their gas pipelines going towards Europe or when they stopped grains shipments, etc. that is also a form of a sanction without branding it.

I have read several analysts' predictions and most believe that Russia will win the oil price ceiling war and that European sanctions will backfire.

Like any war, this energy war result is also not possible to predict. There are battles in this war that West wins and some battles that East wins while the war is not yet over.
Considering that so far the oil producing countries are working together and reduce production and keep the price up, the chances of Eastern Bloc winning is higher.

P.S. The recent disruptions in China which is one of the biggest buyers of oil has helped the price dump recently. We've to wait and see how their comeback and their big buys (specially after the recent visit to Saudi Arabia) is going to affect the market.

its been approx 10 months and the war is not ending
Putin is not thinking to stop the war - - the innocent people are dying and they are damaging infrastructure and paying blood money - this is so damaging to them and to the whole world.

[coupable]

Unfortunately, today the media are very sinful or biased, or custom-made materials, or simply venality. In some countries, the media is generally a tame dog of the regime, which will write everything they say to it, even if it is an insult to their father or mother! Therefore, I try not to use the media as a source of correct information. For a slightly more complicated way of obtaining objective data, you can use stock data, country statistics.

When you are a daily follower of events, you will not be able to rely every time on statistics and scientific data. There is no escape from the media follow-up. The important thing is that this be done knowing that there is no impartial party that can provide objective, abstract information. I personally use discussions in forums to find out more opinions and then draw conclusions. Media information should not be limited with news.

[DrBeer]

not selling to countries who participated in the gas ceiling is one of the Russia's sanction. more like a retaliation to that gas cap.
its why it doesn't make sense blowing up the pipeline going to Europe when they could just shut the valve. but now that its blown, EU have no choice anymore. they could make a deal still if they have that pipe operating again.

EU in between suffer the cold winter and economic collapse as well as Russia not able to make money from the west and isolated.
they could really escalate this to WW3 while not using nukes but they didn't. this is just prolonging the suffering of the people.

No, that's not how it works. Let me explain why:
1. Russia has NO WHERE to put the produced gas! YES, imagine. The largest gas supplier in the EU does not have sufficient storage facilities of its own. Until 2014, Russia stored gas in the Ukrainian GTS, Ukraine has the largest gas storage facilities.
And then Russia has a choice - either conservation (a synonym for stopping production for decades), or selling through other countries of the same EU, but already receiving 50% of the market value ... Because the resellers of "excess gas" are well aware that Russia does not have the opportunity to sell to someone else...
2. The EU has already replaced gas supplies from Russia with gas from other countries, under long-term contracts. At the moment more than 90%. Everything is in open sources

In a word - only Russia lost - because. the EU market is lost for her forever. And "friendly" China and India are twisting Russia's arms, forcing Russia to sell gas to them at a ridiculous price. If you don't want to - well, we'll wait, tomorrow we'll offer an even lower price

[Smartprofit]

not selling to countries who participated in the gas ceiling is one of the Russia's sanction. more like a retaliation to that gas cap.
its why it doesn't make sense blowing up the pipeline going to Europe when they could just shut the valve. but now that its blown, EU have no choice anymore. they could make a deal still if they have that pipe operating again.

EU in between suffer the cold winter and economic collapse as well as Russia not able to make money from the west and isolated.
they could really escalate this to WW3 while not using nukes but they didn't. this is just prolonging the suffering of the people.

No, that's not how it works. Let me explain why:
1. Russia has NO WHERE to put the produced gas! YES, imagine. The largest gas supplier in the EU does not have sufficient storage facilities of its own. Until 2014, Russia stored gas in the Ukrainian GTS, Ukraine has the largest gas storage facilities.
And then Russia has a choice - either conservation (a synonym for stopping production for decades), or selling through other countries of the same EU, but already receiving 50% of the market value ... Because the resellers of "excess gas" are well aware that Russia does not have the opportunity to sell to someone else...
2. The EU has already replaced gas supplies from Russia with gas from other countries, under long-term contracts. At the moment more than 90%. Everything is in open sources

In a word - only Russia lost - because. the EU market is lost for her forever. And "friendly" China and India are twisting Russia's arms, forcing Russia to sell gas to them at a ridiculous price. If you don't want to - well, we'll wait, tomorrow we'll offer an even lower price

In my opinion, trade should not be confused with politics....

At one time, USSR Secretary General Nikita Khrushchev created a system for exporting energy resources to European countries with simultaneous imports of Western goods and technologies into the country. It was a very important element of the stable development of the country.

(At present, Nikita Khrushchev is slandered. He is portrayed as a fool and a voluntarist, although in fact Khrushchev was an outstanding political figure and a man with a strategic type of thinking.)

Of course, this state of affairs did not rule out economic crises. Such a crisis occurred in the 1980s, when the US administration agreed with the Arab sheiks on actions aimed at lowering energy prices. As a result, the economy of the USSR collapsed, the state collapsed.

At the same time, this crisis was caused by an external economic factor - the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan. If not for this circumstance, the Arab sheikhs would never have colluded with the Americans.

[Smack That Ace]

2. The EU has already replaced gas supplies from Russia with gas from other countries, under long-term contracts. At the moment more than 90%. Everything is in open sources

In a word - only Russia lost - because. the EU market is lost for her forever. And "friendly" China and India are twisting Russia's arms, forcing Russia to sell gas to them at a ridiculous price. If you don't want to - well, we'll wait, tomorrow we'll offer an even lower price

Before the Nord Stream pipeline was blown up by crooks, Europe had stockpiled more than 70%-80% of its gas from Russia, so they don't spend too much time and money trying to install the remaining 20% from different suppliers, like buying LNG from screens or gas from Norway. But the real challenge will be next year when Russia blocks all supplies of natural gas as well as LNG, and I hope they will find a solution, or it will be the end of the old continent, as Vanga prophesied.
I don't think they'll ever get out of their addiction .
https://www.ft.com/content/81db1e45-6ef9-4034-879b-82597e2b87f9

[pooya87]

As far as I could tell from the publicly available evidence, so far Europe has only been capable of substituting a small portion of the gas they have been importing from Russia. The only reason why they claim their storages are full (which I doubt that too considering the shortage and blackouts that are starting, but that's a different story) is that they significantly reduced consumption by shutting down industries. A de-industrialization so to speak.

Contrary to what you may think, in many countries the biggest consumers are not home users but the factories. When you shut them down, you decrease the consumption or "demand" by a lot so that you can manage the low "supply" you already have for home users. This is actually one of the reason why gas price came down slightly.

[Smartprofit]

As far as I could tell from the publicly available evidence, so far Europe has only been capable of substituting a small portion of the gas they have been importing from Russia. The only reason why they claim their storages are full (which I doubt that too considering the shortage and blackouts that are starting, but that's a different story) is that they significantly reduced consumption by shutting down industries. A de-industrialization so to speak.

Contrary to what you may think, in many countries the biggest consumers are not home users but the factories. When you shut them down, you decrease the consumption or "demand" by a lot so that you can manage the low "supply" you already have for home users. This is actually one of the reason why gas price came down slightly.

In my opinion, here it is necessary to take into account one circumstance. 

Man is a primate who has learned to solve all the problems that arise before him.  Yes, the solution of the problem may take some time, but it is safe to say that sooner or later the problem will be solved. 

At present, Russia is trying to create problems for Europe, forgetting that Europe for Russia is a buyer, a client and a source of income.  Buyers (customers) need to be taken care of, not create problems for them. 

If you create problems for your customers, you will soon find yourself in a situation where you yourself will have big problems.

[Paul Pogba]

Of course this is a very detrimental thing for Europe, the European industry can stop production if there is no gas supply, and of course it takes a long time to be able to find a substitute for gas, a short way maybe Europe will import liquefied gas but of course it needs another process so that Europe can lose the market.

[Marvell1]

As far as I could tell from the publicly available evidence, so far Europe has only been capable of substituting a small portion of the gas they have been importing from Russia. The only reason why they claim their storages are full (which I doubt that too considering the shortage and blackouts that are starting, but that's a different story) is that they significantly reduced consumption by shutting down industries. A de-industrialization so to speak.

Contrary to what you may think, in many countries the biggest consumers are not home users but the factories. When you shut them down, you decrease the consumption or "demand" by a lot so that you can manage the low "supply" you already have for home users. This is actually one of the reason why gas price came down slightly.

In my opinion, here it is necessary to take into account one circumstance. 

Man is a primate who has learned to solve all the problems that arise before him.  Yes, the solution of the problem may take some time, but it is safe to say that sooner or later the problem will be solved. 

At present, Russia is trying to create problems for Europe, forgetting that Europe for Russia is a buyer, a client and a source of income.  Buyers (customers) need to be taken care of, not create problems for them. 

If you create problems for your customers, you will soon find yourself in a situation where you yourself will have big problems.

Is Russia causing trouble for the EU or is the EU trying to cause trouble for Russia?
What you say is true in business, a business needs customers to make a profit. But if sales don't turn a profit or customers become too unlikeable, then as a business capable of producing products, we have more than enough power to find better customers.

Back to the EU and Russia, I don't believe the EU will find a cheap and quality gas source like Russia, the EU knows that, and they don't want to lose this lucrative supply. But unfortunately, the gas pipeline has a problem, and they have no choice but to suspend gas imports from Russia (partly because they have also filled up their gas storage for this year). On the Russian side, they are turning to Asia, although there will be initial difficulties, it shows that Russian gas is needed by many other countries, not just the EU. India and China alone, the world's two most populous countries, have been able to fill the void left by the EU.

[Maidak]

I have read several analysts' predictions and most believe that Russia will win the oil price ceiling war and that European sanctions will backfire.

Like any war, this energy war result is also not possible to predict. There are battles in this war that West wins and some battles that East wins while the war is not yet over.
Considering that so far the oil producing countries are working together and reduce production and keep the price up, the chances of Eastern Bloc winning is higher.

P.S. The recent disruptions in China which is one of the biggest buyers of oil has helped the price dump recently. We've to wait and see how their comeback and their big buys (specially after the recent visit to Saudi Arabia) is going to affect the market.

The main reason for the recent drop in oil prices is that China's demand is slowing down with the zero covid policy. And I agree with what you said, once China reopens the economy will cause demand to pick up again, and OPEC's policy of reducing oil production will definitely make the oil market rise again.

During President Xi Jinping's recent visit, he also proposed to pay in yuan instead of USD, it would be more interesting if Saudi Arabia accepted this offer.

[S A KHAIR]

Of course this is a very detrimental thing for Europe, the European industry can stop production if there is no gas supply, and of course it takes a long time to be able to find a substitute for gas, a short way maybe Europe will import liquefied gas but of course it needs another process so that Europe can lose the market.

Almost all of their industry is shutting down and they still don't have any alternative source, they're just trying to say they're fine by cutting off the supply to their people. A lot of anti-government protests are taking place in Europe. Solidarity divisions within the EU are also growing because of the controversy over gas supplies. Who said they're fine? it's all just lies.

[sovie]

Of course this is a very detrimental thing for Europe, the European industry can stop production if there is no gas supply, and of course it takes a long time to be able to find a substitute for gas, a short way maybe Europe will import liquefied gas but of course it needs another process so that Europe can lose the market.

Almost all of their industry is shutting down and they still don't have any alternative source, they're just trying to say they're fine by cutting off the supply to their people. A lot of anti-government protests are taking place in Europe. Solidarity divisions within the EU are also growing because of the controversy over gas supplies. Who said they're fine? it's all just lies.

After all the protests there is a silence and there is no change
nothing is going to change through protest - at the end we have to find alternative
so it's better to save our own energy and find out the way to help yourself.

[Argoo]

Of course the most loss is Europe because gas supply is not easy and it is very difficult to find alternative energy for gas, especially many countries that are very dependent on Russian gas so that it becomes a strong bargaining value so that Europe does not dare to attack or invasion Russia.

The war has entered its 10th month, Russia and the EU have continuously introduced sanctions against each other, so far no country has won a victory. Recently, the EU also launched new sanctions to impose an oil price ceiling on Russia and Russia threatened to retaliate. Overall, Russia is unlikely to be damaged and the EU is unlikely to win. But what I see is that oil supply will be cut and oil prices will skyrocket in the near term is very high and the world will continue to fall into the energy crisis again and push inflation higher.

The countries of the European Union have introduced a cap on the price of Russian oil for sale at $60 per barrel. On December 5, sanctions also came into force on the refusal of Europe from oil products. But due to falling demand for Russian oil, Russia is forced to sell its oil much cheaper than the established price ceiling for it. So, recently, 90 percent of the oil from Russia was bought by Asian countries at a price of about $47 per barrel. It is predicted that Russia will be forced to drastically reduce oil production and, as a result of a drop in income from its sale, it has lost about 30 percent of income to the state budget.
In addition, the EU countries have also set the maximum price for the purchase of Russian gas.

[Smartprofit]

As far as I could tell from the publicly available evidence, so far Europe has only been capable of substituting a small portion of the gas they have been importing from Russia. The only reason why they claim their storages are full (which I doubt that too considering the shortage and blackouts that are starting, but that's a different story) is that they significantly reduced consumption by shutting down industries. A de-industrialization so to speak.

Contrary to what you may think, in many countries the biggest consumers are not home users but the factories. When you shut them down, you decrease the consumption or "demand" by a lot so that you can manage the low "supply" you already have for home users. This is actually one of the reason why gas price came down slightly.

In my opinion, here it is necessary to take into account one circumstance.  

Man is a primate who has learned to solve all the problems that arise before him.  Yes, the solution of the problem may take some time, but it is safe to say that sooner or later the problem will be solved.  

At present, Russia is trying to create problems for Europe, forgetting that Europe for Russia is a buyer, a client and a source of income.  Buyers (customers) need to be taken care of, not create problems for them.  

If you create problems for your customers, you will soon find yourself in a situation where you yourself will have big problems.

Is Russia causing trouble for the EU or is the EU trying to cause trouble for Russia?
What you say is true in business, a business needs customers to make a profit. But if sales don't turn a profit or customers become too unlikeable, then as a business capable of producing products, we have more than enough power to find better customers.

Back to the EU and Russia, I don't believe the EU will find a cheap and quality gas source like Russia, the EU knows that, and they don't want to lose this lucrative supply. But unfortunately, the gas pipeline has a problem, and they have no choice but to suspend gas imports from Russia (partly because they have also filled up their gas storage for this year). On the Russian side, they are turning to Asia, although there will be initial difficulties, it shows that Russian gas is needed by many other countries, not just the EU. India and China alone, the world's two most populous countries, have been able to fill the void left by the EU.

I am a supporter of the state being run by merchants, not warriors.  

Gas pipelines should bring income to Russia, and the funds received should be directed to the acquisition of technologies and the development of complex technological industries in the country.  I believe that gas pipelines should not be used for political blackmail.  And even if you are provoked to such actions, then you cannot succumb to such provocations.  

Unlike warriors, merchants do not divide customers into good and bad.  From the trader's point of view, customers are divided into solvent and insolvent.  

India and China do not want to buy Russian energy without big discounts.  

Therefore, India and China cannot be called the right (good) clients.  

Europe has always been a solvent buyer of Russian gas.  Therefore, Europe is the right (good) buyer (client).