Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[bakasabo]

Monthly gas bills increased by 800%, from 81 euros to 651 euros per month. This is the result of EU governments declaring that they have enough gas for this winter and will never need Russian gas again. This is just one of the families in Germany, but I guess this is a well-to-do family that can spend that much money. How will the poor and working class cope with the harsh weather conditions?

Cool story bro. You live in Germany/know someone there or you believe everything you see on the internet?

I spent Christmas holidays in Germany at my sisters place and we talked exactly about the gas price issue. So, they live in a very comfy 170m2 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms house and last year they were paying 80 euro per month for gas and this year gas company increased it to 120 euro per month. Just to add that she relatively recently gave birth to a baby so they are keeping house really warm (even too warm for my taste, I walked around the house in a tshirt in the middle of winter) and not trying to save money by freezing their asses off.

Now go check how much an average family makes in Germany and see whether they can handle 40 euro increase per month.

I am living in a Northern part of Europe and he is my cool story. Small flat around 62m2. In January 2022 bill for December 2021 the line "heating" stated 121,48 EUR. Bill for December 2022 "heating" is already 176,51 EUR + 109,98 EUR that is covered by government as a support. Country average salary is around 1300-1500 EUR. My parents live a private house, probably around 250m2, they have gas heating. Right now they have a fixed monthly gas payment around 500 EUR, but previously they have paid about 200 EUR. This is not a scary story that Smack That Ace told us, but still the situation is not very pleasant...

[serveria.com]

Monthly gas bills increased by 800%, from 81 euros to 651 euros per month. This is the result of EU governments declaring that they have enough gas for this winter and will never need Russian gas again. This is just one of the families in Germany, but I guess this is a well-to-do family that can spend that much money. How will the poor and working class cope with the harsh weather conditions?

Cool story bro. You live in Germany/know someone there or you believe everything you see on the internet?

I spent Christmas holidays in Germany at my sisters place and we talked exactly about the gas price issue. So, they live in a very comfy 170m2 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms house and last year they were paying 80 euro per month for gas and this year gas company increased it to 120 euro per month. Just to add that she relatively recently gave birth to a baby so they are keeping house really warm (even too warm for my taste, I walked around the house in a tshirt in the middle of winter) and not trying to save money by freezing their asses off.

Now go check how much an average family makes in Germany and see whether they can handle 40 euro increase per month.

I am living in a Northern part of Europe and he is my cool story. Small flat around 62m2. In January 2022 bill for December 2021 the line "heating" stated 121,48 EUR. Bill for December 2022 "heating" is already 176,51 EUR + 109,98 EUR that is covered by government as a support. Country average salary is around 1300-1500 EUR. My parents live a private house, probably around 250m2, they have gas heating. Right now they have a fixed monthly gas payment around 500 EUR, but previously they have paid about 200 EUR. This is not a scary story that Smack That Ace told us, but still the situation is not very pleasant...

I suspect the truth is somewhere in between +800% and +40EUR.  Although +800% is possible in some countries too (I heard Bulgaria had some really drastic energy price rise) and +40EUR is possible if you use some tricks, like solar panels or a heat pump for example (something about his sister's house the poster was not aware of).

[Rikafip]

This is not a scary story that Smack That Ace told us, but still the situation is not very pleasant...

No increase is pleasant, but no need to spread bs while real situation can be easily checked.

I suspect the truth is somewhere in between +800% and +40EUR.   Although +800% is possible in some countries too (I heard Bulgaria had some really drastic energy price rise)

Well, I would like to hear in which Europe countries gas heating for families increased by 800%. We all know that prices increased and its not pleasant at all, but its one thing for price to increase 100% which happened in some countries but completely different to get increased by 800%.

and +40EUR is possible if you use some tricks, like solar panels or a heat pump for example (something about his sister's house the poster was not aware of).

They are not using any "tricks" like solar panels (they do plan to install them as from what I could see a lot of their neighbours have roofs of their houses covered with them) but their house is pretty new (built 4 years ago) so isolation is good which can affect how much you spend on heating (and cooling). Still, even if they lived in an old house I don't think that increase would be nowhere close to 800% like that guy from the screenshot allegedly had.

[Smartprofit]

As far as I know, the share of the Russian Federation in the export of hydrocarbons (natural gas, oil and coal) was 35 percent.  That is, 65 percent of hydrocarbon exports were carried out by other countries. 

Currently, the total consumption of hydrocarbons in the world has decreased.  People began to save more on the consumption of heat and electricity, and appropriate technologies appeared to ensure this process. 

At the same time, other countries (for example, Norway) increased the export of hydrocarbons.  This means that Russia has simply “donated” its market share to other countries.  Europe refuses to consume Russian gas and oil. 

For the future of Russia, this is a disaster, because Russia is an exporting country. 

Oil and gas revenues from the export of hydrocarbons (now lost) are intended to improve the well-being of the people of Russia and acquire the missing progressive technologies abroad.

[pooya87]

If a government is printing money to cover part of the cost of gas (and other) bills for home users of part of the population ("price cap") that doesn't mean gas price hasn't gone X% up*, it just means that household users aren't screwed at once. It also means that inflation is also going to shoot up after some time when the effects of that money printing starts showing up like what happened after COVID19 money printing.

* I say X% because I have no idea what the real percentage is. Every source is reporting a different percentage. Eurostats says gas prices for housholds have gone up from 0% (Hungary) up to 150% (Estonia). I've seen other stats like UK Parliament reporting about 200% price rise. I've seen news articles from experts claiming various percentages too.
I've also seen regular people claim their bills have gone up between 8 to 12 times (that's 700% to 1100%). And of course one or two posts on this forum where some users claim the rise is about 50%.
And so on.

[jayce]

As far as I know, the share of the Russian Federation in the export of hydrocarbons (natural gas, oil and coal) was 35 percent.  That is, 65 percent of hydrocarbon exports were carried out by other countries. 

Currently, the total consumption of hydrocarbons in the world has decreased.  People began to save more on the consumption of heat and electricity, and appropriate technologies appeared to ensure this process. 

At the same time, other countries (for example, Norway) increased the export of hydrocarbons.  This means that Russia has simply “donated” its market share to other countries.  Europe refuses to consume Russian gas and oil. 

For the future of Russia, this is a disaster, because Russia is an exporting country. 

Oil and gas revenues from the export of hydrocarbons (now lost) are intended to improve the well-being of the people of Russia and acquire the missing progressive technologies abroad.

The consumption of hydrocarbon products is decreasing indeed, but it doesn't mean that people can live without hydrocarbons completely, especially for those who live in third world countries. I'm not being pessimistic, but it would take decades for us to live free of hydrocarbons. Beside that, Russia is not the only country that have large oil reserve, which there are Canada, Middle East countries, even the US. I dont think they will just stay silent when their oil and gas selling is dropping.

Currently with the EU ban, Russia still have China and India as their main buyers, with a few of small countries who taking advantage on the discounted price of Russian hydrocarbon products especially oil. Even though the demand of their oil & gas products is decreasing, as long as China is still on their side, then they have nothing to worry, at least in near future. Though hydrocarbons don't expire, they can just keep it until the right time to sell. Unlike Venezuela that have biggest oil reserves, Russia wouldnt get bankrupt.

[Smartprofit]

Canada, the countries of the Middle East, Norway and the United States will only benefit from the inadequate actions of Russian managers. 

Russia is losing its share in the export of hydrocarbons - other countries (competitors) are increasing their share in the export of hydrocarbons. 

At the same time, China and India will buy cheap hydrocarbons from Russia for the purpose of resale, but there is no political cooperation and mutual assistance between these countries. 

Russia is dumping on the hydrocarbon market - China, India and Turkey are cynically taking advantage of this.  But Russia is forced to sell its resources to these countries, and these countries do not undertake the obligation to buy them. 

So (unexpectedly for Russia) China concluded a deal with Australia to buy Australian coal. 

Russia offered China its coal at a deep discount, but China (for some reason of its own) refused this deal and chose instead economic cooperation with Australia.

[serveria.com]

This is not a scary story that Smack That Ace told us, but still the situation is not very pleasant...

No increase is pleasant, but no need to spread bs while real situation can be easily checked.

I suspect the truth is somewhere in between +800% and +40EUR.   Although +800% is possible in some countries too (I heard Bulgaria had some really drastic energy price rise)

Well, I would like to hear in which Europe countries gas heating for families increased by 800%. We all know that prices increased and its not pleasant at all, but its one thing for price to increase 100% which happened in some countries but completely different to get increased by 800%.

and +40EUR is possible if you use some tricks, like solar panels or a heat pump for example (something about his sister's house the poster was not aware of).

They are not using any "tricks" like solar panels (they do plan to install them as from what I could see a lot of their neighbours have roofs of their houses covered with them) but their house is pretty new (built 4 years ago) so isolation is good which can affect how much you spend on heating (and cooling). Still, even if they lived in an old house I don't think that increase would be nowhere close to 800% like that guy from the screenshot allegedly had.

Well, if you claim their bill was 120eur last year and is 160eur this year I'm calling this claim bs. 160eur bill is only possible perhaps for a one-bedroom apartment in Germany. How big is their house? It's not a sea container sized house? 

I have some info on energy prices in a few EU countries. Bulgaria and Baltic states were hit the most I guess. Electricity is up from ~5cents to ~50cents (for business consumers). Gas heating bills are up from ~100-150eur last year to roughly 300-400eur this year in the Baltic countries. I can't provide any proof like a scanned copy of energy bill but it's coming from very trustworthy sources.

[pooya87]

Russia is losing its share in the export of hydrocarbons - other countries (competitors) are increasing their share in the export of hydrocarbons.

You should consider that part of Russian exports went underground meaning it won't come up on official reports. Many of it is also still heading towards Europe, specially the Russian LNG. 

So (unexpectedly for Russia) China concluded a deal with Australia to buy Australian coal. 

Russia offered China its coal at a deep discount, but China (for some reason of its own) refused this deal and chose instead economic cooperation with Australia.

Did China really refuse coal imports from Russia or are they just diversifying?
So far I've seen Chinese diversify literary EVERYTHING (coal, oil, gas, raw materials, food stuff, machinery, technology,...) that's true for both imports and exports.
That's what every country must do instead of heavily relying on one source that could abuse that.

[Rikafip]

Well, if you claim their bill was 120eur last year and is 160eur this year I'm calling this claim bs. 160eur bill is only possible perhaps for a one-bedroom apartment in Germany. How big is their house? It's not a sea container sized house?  

You might wanna read my first post again. First of all, those are the wrong numbers that you remembered, and 2nd I also mentioned the house size (they live in Baden-Württemberg state, dunno if there is any difference in gas prices depending on the part of Germany).

[Smartprofit]

Russia is losing its share in the export of hydrocarbons - other countries (competitors) are increasing their share in the export of hydrocarbons.

You should consider that part of Russian exports went underground meaning it won't come up on official reports. Many of it is also still heading towards Europe, specially the Russian LNG. 

So (unexpectedly for Russia) China concluded a deal with Australia to buy Australian coal. 

Russia offered China its coal at a deep discount, but China (for some reason of its own) refused this deal and chose instead economic cooperation with Australia.

Did China really refuse coal imports from Russia or are they just diversifying?
So far I've seen Chinese diversify literary EVERYTHING (coal, oil, gas, raw materials, food stuff, machinery, technology,...) that's true for both imports and exports.
That's what every country must do instead of heavily relying on one source that could abuse that.

Yes, most likely China is diversifying its purchases.  And this is a very reasonable management decision. 

However, it would (in turn) be a smart economic decision for Russia to diversify its energy exports.  Russia could sell part of its hydrocarbons to Europe, and part to China and India. 

But for this it is necessary not to complicate the picture of the world and not to confuse international trade with geopolitics and theoretically possible military-political coalitions. 

In practice, no one wants to join coalitions with anyone, but wants to trade profitably and maintain their sovereignty.

[Ozero]

As far as I know, the share of the Russian Federation in the export of hydrocarbons (natural gas, oil and coal) was 35 percent.  That is, 65 percent of hydrocarbon exports were carried out by other countries. 

Currently, the total consumption of hydrocarbons in the world has decreased.  People began to save more on the consumption of heat and electricity, and appropriate technologies appeared to ensure this process. 

At the same time, other countries (for example, Norway) increased the export of hydrocarbons.  This means that Russia has simply “donated” its market share to other countries.  Europe refuses to consume Russian gas and oil. 

For the future of Russia, this is a disaster, because Russia is an exporting country. 

Oil and gas revenues from the export of hydrocarbons (now lost) are intended to improve the well-being of the people of Russia and acquire the missing progressive technologies abroad.

If we consider only the Russian oil and gas market, then the policy of blackmail and intimidation of European countries has led Russia to the exact opposite result. Russia has lost the European market, if not forever, then for a very long time, and this year it will definitely lose big. The global oil and gas market will be reformatted, but Russia will remain out of work. In the last sanctions package, the price of Russian oil was capped at $60 per barrel, but in recent days it has even dropped to $38. It cannot be said that countries will completely abandon Russian energy sources, but they, and primarily China and India, will use Russia's difficulties to extract their own benefit, and therefore will demand maximum discounts from Russia.

From February 5, the EU countries also refuse Russian oil products, such as diesel and gasoline. This will be another blow to the Russian economy. Countries like India will buy Russian oil at the lowest price and load their refineries. Therefore, here Russia will have to face the problem of selling its oil products.

[jayce]

Canada, the countries of the Middle East, Norway and the United States will only benefit from the inadequate actions of Russian managers. 

Russia is losing its share in the export of hydrocarbons - other countries (competitors) are increasing their share in the export of hydrocarbons. 

At the same time, China and India will buy cheap hydrocarbons from Russia for the purpose of resale, but there is no political cooperation and mutual assistance between these countries.

Russia is dumping on the hydrocarbon market - China, India and Turkey are cynically taking advantage of this.  But Russia is forced to sell its resources to these countries, and these countries do not undertake the obligation to buy them.

Well, these countries, China, India, and Turkey won't ignore the Russian oil's ban if they dont have a good relationship with Russia. There is no mutual assistance, because they have mutual agreement already for years before the invasion, and seems, after invasion, it doesn't change. China and Russia are sharing same political ideology, while India chose abstain position in UN's voting on Russia-Ukraine issue. Turkey have unique position, while as the NATO member, they have made long partnership with Russian on big projects, e.g. TurkStream, which one of its pipelines bypasses Ukraine. I think it's a bit off-topic now and belongs to politics & society, but the point is, these countries won't risk their relationship with western countries if there isn't a mutual agreement with Russia.

So (unexpectedly for Russia) China concluded a deal with Australia to buy Australian coal. 

Russia offered China its coal at a deep discount, but China (for some reason of its own) refused this deal and chose instead economic cooperation with Australia.

Unless you have solid sources about it, the mainstreaming media such as Reuters states that China still import the coal from Russia, along with Indonesia that have the biggest share. Australia used to be China's main coal source, but China banned them completely because of the investigation by Australia that claimed corona virus was from China. Recent news is just about China that starting to resume their import of coal from Australia, but not in same number like used to be, even much lower.

[pooya87]

However, it would (in turn) be a smart economic decision for Russia to diversify its energy exports.  Russia could sell part of its hydrocarbons to Europe, and part to China and India. 

AFAIK Russia is also diversifying their energy sales, part of it is still going to Europe directly through gas pipelines and some through LNG exports, part of it is going to Europe through third parties like gas through Turkey and their oil through Iran, their sales are also to China, India, Pakistan and at leas half a dozen other Asian countries, there are also some work being done about installing more pipelines to sell to a couple of other countries in West Asia through third parties.

[Sithara007]

If we consider only the Russian oil and gas market, then the policy of blackmail and intimidation of European countries has led Russia to the exact opposite result. Russia has lost the European market, if not forever, then for a very long time, and this year it will definitely lose big. The global oil and gas market will be reformatted, but Russia will remain out of work. In the last sanctions package, the price of Russian oil was capped at $60 per barrel, but in recent days it has even dropped to $38. It cannot be said that countries will completely abandon Russian energy sources, but they, and primarily China and India, will use Russia's difficulties to extract their own benefit, and therefore will demand maximum discounts from Russia.

From February 5, the EU countries also refuse Russian oil products, such as diesel and gasoline. This will be another blow to the Russian economy. Countries like India will buy Russian oil at the lowest price and load their refineries. Therefore, here Russia will have to face the problem of selling its oil products.

The last time I checked, Indian refineries were purchasing Urals crude at $53 per barrel. The price you were talking about prevailed only for a few days and then it recovered. And then, ESPO and other brands of Pacific crude are still trading at levels well above the price cap set by the EU. This brand of crude is mostly being purchased by China and Russia. The average price for all brands of Russian crude is well above $60 per barrel, which is much higher than the average cost of production ($10 to $15 per barrel for West Siberia, higher for Arctic oil fields).

[Smack That Ace]

This is not a scary story that Smack That Ace told us, but still the situation is not very pleasant...

No increase is pleasant, but no need to spread bs while real situation can be easily checked.

I suspect the truth is somewhere in between +800% and +40EUR.   Although +800% is possible in some countries too (I heard Bulgaria had some really drastic energy price rise)

Well, I would like to hear in which Europe countries gas heating for families increased by 800%. We all know that prices increased and its not pleasant at all, but its one thing for price to increase 100% which happened in some countries but completely different to get increased by 800%.

and +40EUR is possible if you use some tricks, like solar panels or a heat pump for example (something about his sister's house the poster was not aware of).

They are not using any "tricks" like solar panels (they do plan to install them as from what I could see a lot of their neighbours have roofs of their houses covered with them) but their house is pretty new (built 4 years ago) so isolation is good which can affect how much you spend on heating (and cooling). Still, even if they lived in an old house I don't think that increase would be nowhere close to 800% like that guy from the screenshot allegedly had.

Well, if you claim their bill was 120eur last year and is 160eur this year I'm calling this claim bs. 160eur bill is only possible perhaps for a one-bedroom apartment in Germany. How big is their house? It's not a sea container sized house? 

I have some info on energy prices in a few EU countries. Bulgaria and Baltic states were hit the most I guess. Electricity is up from ~5cents to ~50cents (for business consumers). Gas heating bills are up from ~100-150eur last year to roughly 300-400eur this year in the Baltic countries. I can't provide any proof like a scanned copy of energy bill but it's coming from very trustworthy sources.

This is a chart of electricity prices in the UK on December 13, 2022, electricity prices increased rapidly, increasing more than 5 times because of concerns about electricity shortages due to the weather becoming too cold, and while the winter was harsh, the solar panels are not working.


And this is the article that I am reading at the same time. Britain's good brother, France, urgently requested to cut off electricity exports to the UK because the domestic crisis was also worsening.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/12/ftse-100-markets-live-news-uk-economy-strikes-energy/?fbclid=IwAR2_9xFBYOCjuMiG4NF7zacGshMv8hqB7H5tDOblEO5rEoqKnXDAcgG8RPI

[coupable]

After the war against Afghanistan and the trouble in South asian continent - and then the Covid and the war against Ukraine.
That has destroyed the world to an extreme - already people are suffering and dying because of bad health - and then the missile and gunfire and bombing is adding fuel to the fire.

I do not know what you mean, but the war in Afghanistan ended a long time ago, and America withdrew all its forces in Afghanistan more than a year ago. But I agree with you that the world is witnessing accelerating events, which increase the recession of the global economy. The succession of crises is accelerating, which does not allow for periods of recovery. The world after the Corona crisis (we are still suffering from it to this day) is not supposed to be ready for new crises, but unfortunately the opposite is happening.

[Sithara007]

Winter this time has remained surprisingly mild in Europe and as a result the natural gas consumption has gone down. The Dutch TTF prices are at lowest levels since the war started, with LNG trading at $704 per thousand cubic meters (still around 2x higher than the rates in 2022 January). Brent crude is still hovering at $80 to $85 per barrel, despite the reduced demand from China. BTW, a new record has been achieved in Russia’s Northern Sea Route, as commodities amounting to 34 million tons were shipped in 2022 (including 20.5 million tons of LNG and 7.2 million tons of oil).

[pooya87]

Speaking of energy bills I saw a tweet from a French citizen who says his bill (apparently for a small pastry shop) has gone up almost 10 times. From 1,630€ to 16,427€ due to the severe energy crisis that Europe is facing.

The bill for November (16427€):

https://twitter.com/AlizadehSamuel/status/1602739828575342592

The bill for December (17780€):

https://www.dna.fr/economie/2023/01/16/patisserie-suzanne-la-facture-suivante-se-monte-a-17-780-euros

P.S. Now the 800% gas bill rise that @Smack That Ace pointed out earlier doesn't seem that big since this case is 990% rise.

[stompix]

The Dutch TTF prices are at lowest levels since the war started, with LNG trading at $704 per thousand cubic meters (still around 2x higher than the rates in 2022 January).

Can't you just cut with the bullshit?
First and first, nobody trades in Europe based on cubic meters and dollars!
All TTF futures are traded in Mw/€! All dutch TTF futures happen here:

https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5493476&span=2
And futures prices in 2022 were 64€/Mw now they are 60!

European gas prices slump to 16-month low
Do you understand what 16 months mean? It's more than a year as a hint!

As for LNG, don't worry, US LNG is actually getting cheaper:

S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGCI) assessed its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark, for cargoes delivered in February on ex-ship (DES) basis, at $19.241/mmBtu on Jan. 12, a discount of $2.2/mmBtu to the February gas price at the Dutch gas TTF hub, according to Ciran Roe, global director of LNG.

As for our Iranian friend that is so concerned about gas in Europe, here is karma for you:
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-faces-gas-shortage-despite-vast-reserves/a-64395365

The country is experiencing technical problems with gas production, the Petroleum Ministry has confirmed. Earlier this week, the oil minister warned people to conserve supplies. In an interview with the official Shana news agency, which covers the industry, he advised citizens to "dress warmer at home and reduce consumption: Those who use too much gas can expect to have their supply cut off.”
"Outrageous!" one young mother from Tehran told DW in response to the announcement. "In the last three or four years, we see the same theater every time there is a cold snap. Every snowfall paralyzes the country, when authorities and schools are closed to save energy."
This winter has been no exception: Since mid-December, government offices and schools in various provinces across the country of 84 million people have been closed for weeks at a time to save gas. Still, dressing warmer at home is unusual for the 37-year-old mother, as it is for many other Iranians, who are accustomed to having warm homes heated with cheap gas.

Natural Gas Shortage In Iran Shuts Schools, State Organizations

In the provinces of Mazandaran, Esfahan, Qazvin, East Azarbaijan, Alborz, Gilan, Qom and South Khorasan, offices, organizations, schools, and universities were shut down.
Amid this crisis, however, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji, went as far as asking people to report "suspicious cases of excessive gas consumption by neighbors" or "enemies' movements to disrupt the gas network" to the intelligence ministry or the IRGC intelligence.

And he still cares more about what a bakery in Strasbourg says rather than what the people of Strasbourg really care:
Thousands march to EU parliament in Strasbourg in support of Iran protesters