Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[serveria.com]

great news

Russia is preparing to shut down refineries due to European sanctions.
Russian oil refineries are preparing for a forced stoppage of production due to the European embargo, under which oil products will fall after oil from February 5.
The downtime plan for oil refining, the largest manufacturing industry, which accounts for 15% of industrial production in Russia, will be a record in the history of available statistics in 2023, Reuters reports, citing data from Refinitiv Eikon.
In total, 7.9% of refinery capacity, or 26.55 million tons in terms of crude oil, will go to downtime and preventive repairs - 5.9 million tons more than in 2022. Actual downtime, as a rule, is twice the plan, recalls Reuters: at the end of last year, it amounted to almost 39.2 million tons.

The largest amount of idle capacity - 12.3% - is planned for Rosneft, Russia's largest mining company, which accounts for every second barrel extracted from the subsoil. At Lukoil and Gazprom Neft, the figures are several times lower - 5 and 4%, respectively.
In total, refineries that employ 120,000 Russians are preparing to cut production by 15% this year, a source familiar with the government's plans told Reuters earlier.
Sanctions on oil products, which Russia has traditionally exported to Europe, will have a much greater impact than an oil embargo, he explained: it is unlikely that it will be possible to collect a “shadow fleet” for diesel and gasoline, since the parties are usually smaller in volume, and in order to smuggling them into Asia would require many more ships.

According to the IEA, Russia exported on average about 1.2 million barrels of oil products per day in 2022. The closed European market will bring down volumes by 5 times - by the end of the first quarter, about a million barrels of daily exports will be left without buyers, BCS analyst Ronald Smith estimates.
Russia will not be able to produce oil products “for storage”: there are simply no storage facilities in the country where it would be possible to fill in the unsold. One option is to export more unrefined oil, writes Reuters. But how to do this remains a mystery: even the current volumes - 3-4 million barrels per day - are kept by oilmen at the price of huge discounts, offering barrels at half price. And such a policy “runs counter to the interests of the budget” and “cannot continue indefinitely,” says Marcel Salikhov, head of the Institute of Energy and Finance.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/01/27/rossiya-gotovitsya-ostanovit-npz-iz-za-evropeiskih-sanktsii-a32097

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After further googling our little Stichting Potamos investigation leads us to Eliot Higgins and Bellingcat. I'm sure you know Bellingcat is a MI6/CIA sockpuppet, just to make sure here's Eliot Higgins' twitter feed: https://twitter.com/eliothiggins/

In other words - this website has nothing to do with Russian state media (or Russian media at all?) apart from the .ru domain apparently. I'm actually a bit shocked this website hasn't been taken down in putinist Russia for so long. 

[paxmao]

Your country managed to deal with the crisis in a way better than many of the analysts anticipated.

Hah, you can find "analysts" predicting all sorts of thing but you had to be very naive to believe those fearmongers "predicting" that EU would freeze to death.

Let's be frank, Europe was helped not by analysts' mistakes, but by this abnormally warm winter. There has never been a frost so far this winter.

Let's be frank, Europe has never been at risk of not having gas. There is more than enough gas for those who are willing to pay for it, so the RF has basically fu*ked up the countries that cannot pay for it (third world and poorer countries mostly).

The winter has not been unusual, what has been unusual has been Europe loading topping up the gas depots to 100% at no-matter-the-price. The strategy caused additional costs to Europe but that's it - nothing like "freezing", more like heating at 21 C instead of the usual 23 C

[pooya87]

It's funny reading people say "Germans have a lot of money to pay their gas bills" while their businesses are shutting down one by one because of their high utility bills and as we speak the strikes have reached Germany from the same "people with a lot of money" protesting their lack of money demanding increased wages so that they can afford living.

I don't know if those saying these things are just propagandists or brainwashed people coming from privileged families who have no idea how the other half lives in their own countries!
I won't be surprised if tomorrow they said the "1+ million people protesting in France are protesting because they have too much money and don't know how to spend it".

[DrBeer]

It's funny reading people say "Germans have a lot of money to pay their gas bills" while their businesses are shutting down one by one because of their high utility bills and as we speak the strikes have reached Germany from the same "people with a lot of money" protesting their lack of money demanding increased wages so that they can afford living.

I don't know if those saying these things are just propagandists or brainwashed people coming from privileged families who have no idea how the other half lives in their own countries!
I won't be surprised if tomorrow they said the "1+ million people protesting in France are protesting because they have too much money and don't know how to spend it".

 
One simple question to check - are you a total liar, or even sometimes you tell the truth
Question - give a list of large / medium-sized companies from Germany that have actually curtailed their activities?
Only a nuance - provide information, taking into account the fact that it will be checked through German registers, where you can easily clarify whether the enterprise has stopped working or not?
And yes - do not serve under "this sauce" German companies that have left the market of the country of an international terrorist. And so - we are waiting for your specific answer, with a list of companies that have completely ceased to exist on the market?

PS Any answer other than a list of enterprises that have stopped working will only be evidence of your systemic, deliberate lies in the style of Moscow propaganda

[Rikafip]

Let's be frank, Europe was helped not by analysts' mistakes, but by this abnormally warm winter. There has never been a frost so far this winter.

We have to thank HAARP for the mild winter. Joke aside, even if winter was harsher we would manage and people wouldn't be forced to burn their own furniture in order to survive. We would pay the increased gas price, or wear more clothes while inside (and not walk around the house in shorts and tshirts) and that's about it.

I don't know if those saying these things are just propagandists or brainwashed people coming from privileged families who have no idea how the other half lives in their own countries!

Yep, we who live in Europe have no idea how our neighbours live (btw I am living in the rural part of one of the poorest countries in EU) but people from Pakistan and Iran are here to explain the real situation.

[DrBeer]

"Great" achievements of a "great" country

The gas war declared by Putin in Munich in 2007 has been lost to smithereens - Russia has lost the European market The share of Russian gas in the European market has fallen to 11%.

Back in early 2020, the share of Russian gas (both pipeline and LNG) in the European market was 50%. Today it has fallen to 11%. This catastrophe is the result of the geopolitical games of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

The reason for the incident was the Kremlin's underestimation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology, which revolutionized the energy sector around the world. The Russian authorities and their experts did not take the development seriously. They preferred the old-fashioned way to "cut loot" on expensive gas pipelines, but in the end they were left behind progress.

https://www.dialog.ua/blogs/266865_1674892321

[Smartprofit]

Europe is a territory with a very comfortable and warm climate.  It cannot even be compared with such climatically unfavorable territories as Russia, Canada, Alaska, etc. 

Where did the idea come from that it would be so cold in Europe that the population would freeze to death without Russian gas? 

I do not even focus on the aspect that the idea of ​​freezing the population of Europe is in itself cynical and immoral.  This is both stupidity and meanness (at the same time). 

Of course, there will be no civilizational collapse in Europe without Russian gas.  But Russia will lose a solvent and friendly client.

[DrBeer]

Europe is a territory with a very comfortable and warm climate.  It cannot even be compared with such climatically unfavorable territories as Russia, Canada, Alaska, etc. 

Where did the idea come from that it would be so cold in Europe that the population would freeze to death without Russian gas? 

I do not even focus on the aspect that the idea of ​​freezing the population of Europe is in itself cynical and immoral.  This is both stupidity and meanness (at the same time). 

Of course, there will be no civilizational collapse in Europe without Russian gas.  But Russia will lose a solvent and friendly client.

All the power and "greatness" of Russia rests on total fakes and propaganda. Fakes are the second army of the world, a stable economy, sanctions do not harm us, and other nonsense.
Propaganda is almost the same, but with the help of propaganda through controlled media, they try to influence the masses. For example, tantrums and squeals "Europe will freeze without Russian gas" - had the following goals:
1. Fanning tensions in the EU
2. Preparation and Influence on the opinion of voters, for the subsequent change of power on their "pet dogs"
3. Manipulating the situation to shake the EU, which, admittedly, does not like instability very much.
4. An attempt, through manipulation and sabotage, to destroy ties in the NATO bloc in order to weaken it.

Russia is well aware that in the real world, the place of Russia is barely noticeable. She does not affect anything, She can only scare, lie, try to manipulate. But as it turned out, the EU can EASILY do without Russian gas, and without oil. And severing ties with Russia will only hurt corrupt European politicians, since the Kremlin will no longer support and finance them.

[og kush420]

Europe is a territory with a very comfortable and warm climate.  It cannot even be compared with such climatically unfavorable territories as Russia, Canada, Alaska, etc. 

Where did the idea come from that it would be so cold in Europe that the population would freeze to death without Russian gas? 

I do not even focus on the aspect that the idea of ​​freezing the population of Europe is in itself cynical and immoral.  This is both stupidity and meanness (at the same time). 

Of course, there will be no civilizational collapse in Europe without Russian gas.  But Russia will lose a solvent and friendly client.

All the power and "greatness" of Russia rests on total fakes and propaganda. Fakes are the second army of the world, a stable economy, sanctions do not harm us, and other nonsense.
Propaganda is almost the same, but with the help of propaganda through controlled media, they try to influence the masses. For example, tantrums and squeals "Europe will freeze without Russian gas" - had the following goals:
1. Fanning tensions in the EU
2. Preparation and Influence on the opinion of voters, for the subsequent change of power on their "pet dogs"
3. Manipulating the situation to shake the EU, which, admittedly, does not like instability very much.
4. An attempt, through manipulation and sabotage, to destroy ties in the NATO bloc in order to weaken it.

Russia is well aware that in the real world, the place of Russia is barely noticeable. She does not affect anything, She can only scare, lie, try to manipulate. But as it turned out, the EU can EASILY do without Russian gas, and without oil. And severing ties with Russia will only hurt corrupt European politicians, since the Kremlin will no longer support and finance them.

the first point you have made about the fanning tension in EU is very valid
While Ukrainian are dying many superpowers are looking for their benefits and using them as a bait.
Belarus and China already on the Russian side while the other superpowers on the Ukrainian side are making things difficult for the world

[og kush420]

Europe is a territory with a very comfortable and warm climate.  It cannot even be compared with such climatically unfavorable territories as Russia, Canada, Alaska, etc. 

Where did the idea come from that it would be so cold in Europe that the population would freeze to death without Russian gas? 

I do not even focus on the aspect that the idea of ​​freezing the population of Europe is in itself cynical and immoral.  This is both stupidity and meanness (at the same time). 

Of course, there will be no civilizational collapse in Europe without Russian gas.  But Russia will lose a solvent and friendly client.

I think - people take Russia as a cold country - even in our history books, we have read that the early invader did not survived the harsh weather of Russia. But about EU I am not sure where it came from.

[Sithara007]

~~~
The reason for the incident was the Kremlin's underestimation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology, which revolutionized the energy sector around the world. The Russian authorities and their experts did not take the development seriously. They preferred the old-fashioned way to "cut loot" on expensive gas pipelines, but in the end they were left behind progress.

https://www.dialog.ua/blogs/266865_1674892321

I can agree with that. Two decades back, when Qatar and Australia were developing their LNG terminals, a lot of experts suggested Russian government to give attention to this sector. But the Russians were overconfident about their pipeline capacity and therefore rejected their suggestion. And then they monopolized gas exports from that country and came up with a rule that only Gazprom is allowed to export natural gas. Shell was developing LNG facility in Sakhalin and they had to shelve the plans mid way. The Russian government realized the importance of LNG more than a decade later, when Qatar and Australia started reaping rewards from their exports to East Asia. 

[Argoo]

Your country managed to deal with the crisis in a way better than many of the analysts anticipated.

Hah, you can find "analysts" predicting all sorts of thing but you had to be very naive to believe those fearmongers "predicting" that EU would freeze to death.

Let's be frank, Europe was helped not by analysts' mistakes, but by this abnormally warm winter. There has never been a frost so far this winter.

I have noticed more than once that nature in this war is not on the side of Russia. Previously, it was interesting to observe how Russian ships repeatedly tried to land troops off the coast of Odessa and they were constantly hindered by storms at sea, as a result of which Russia could not carry out such an operation (with the exception of one relatively small attempt with a complete loss of troops), because later the APU it became possible to destroy enemy ships on the way.

Actually, the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine on February 24 began with the advance almost exclusively along the well-maintained roads of Ukraine, since at that time it was difficult even for tracked armored vehicles to drive through the Ukrainian muddy black soil. We have repeatedly seen photos and videos of serviceable Russian tanks, armored vehicles and other military equipment stuck in the mud and abandoned. At the same time, the advance of the occupying troops almost exclusively along the roads of Ukraine was a good opportunity to shoot many kilometers of columns as if in a shooting range, as a result of which the Russian army suffered significant losses in the first month of the offensive and was forced to retreat from the central and northern parts of Ukraine.

Recently, I was also surprised when I looked at the weather map. A sharp cold snap was from Russia and its borders almost coincided with the borders of Ukraine, and they went around Ukraine almost along the contour of its borders. This is very symbolic.

Russia periodically launches rockets and anything capable of firing at Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure in an attempt to cause panic and fear among the civilian population because it cannot gain an advantage on the battlefield. And what did she achieve? Only the hatred of Ukrainians for Russia and everything Russian.

[be.open]

And what did she achieve? Only the hatred of Ukrainians for Russia and everything Russian.

That is, when thousands of people every year walked through the streets of Kyiv in a torchlight procession in honor of the Nazi Bandera and chanted "Cut the Russians" in chorus, was this not yet hatred?

[Ozero]

And what did she achieve? Only the hatred of Ukrainians for Russia and everything Russian.

That is, when thousands of people every year walked through the streets of Kyiv in a torchlight procession in honor of the Nazi Bandera and chanted "Cut the Russians" in chorus, was this not yet hatred?

I don’t know where you get these facts from, but I live in Kyiv and I can say that neither in Kyiv nor in other cities of Ukraine has there ever been open hatred towards Russians. In any case, no one has openly propagandized it. As for torchlight processions, the first of January in Ukraine traditionally marks the anniversary of the birth of the leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, one of the leading ideologists and theorists of the Ukrainian nationalist movement of the 20th century, Stepan Bandera. Stepan Bandera and Yaroslav Stetsko were the authors of the Act of Restoration of the Ukrainian State, which was proclaimed on June 30, 1941. The procession is peaceful and does not have a pronounced anti-Russian orientation. For example, in 2022, the procession passed along Independence Square, after which people paid tribute to the memory of those who died on the Alley of Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred and went under the Office of the President, where the participants of the action demanded that the title of Hero of Ukraine be awarded to the military and public figure Miroslav Simchich. He is a hundredth UPA, a political prisoner who was kept behind bars for 32 years by the decision of the Soviet regime. The police did not let the marchers directly under the building of the OP because of the New Year's attraction located there. The protesters held Ukrainian and red-black flags, portraits of the leaders of the national liberation struggle. They shouted out "OUN-UPA state recognition", "Putin x @ ylo", "Glory to Ukraine - glory to the Heroes", "Remember the stranger - the Ukrainian is the owner here."

I don't see anything anti-Russian in such a procession. Most likely, one of the directions was against the Soviet regime, which organized genocide and famines on the territory of Ukraine. In the Soviet Union, all peoples were oppressed, and especially Ukrainians with their freedom-loving spirit of Cossackism and liberty. It is this spirit that now gives strength and the ability to effectively resist the Russian invasion and destruction of Ukraine as a state and nation.

[Sithara007]

Two weeks ago, there was a statement from the Uniper CEO (Klaus-Dieter Maubach) regarding Nord Stream pipeline. He claimed that the damaged pipelines can be repaired in 6 to 12 months. But then the question remains on whether Germany wants to continue its deal with Gazprom. Equinor has already stated that they can't work on the repairs because of sanctions, and that is going to make the pipeline repair extremely expensive (if it is even considered). On top of that, the damaged section of the pipeline lies in the exclusive economic zones of Danmark and Sweden, which complicates this matter further.

[Argoo]

To do without Russian gas, as well as the need to bow to the unpredictable and wayward Kremlin, the Bulgarians and Serbs began building a gas pipeline.

Energy Minister of Bulgaria Rossen Hristov announced that Bulgaria has begun capital construction of a gas pipeline to Serbia. Its length is a 170-kilometer gas pipeline, and it will run from the Bulgarian Novy Iskir to the Serbian Nisha, Reuters informs.

Serbia, which has also already begun the construction of the pipeline on its territory, and back in February 2022, will fully complete its preparation by the coming autumn.
It is noteworthy that this new gas pipeline is partly financed by EU countries. It will give both Serbia and Bulgaria access to non-Russian supplies from the Southern Gas Corridor and LNG terminals in Greece and Turkey. The pipeline will allow the "blue fuel" to flow in two directions at once and diversify the routes connecting Bulgaria with the European gas network.

This project will be put into operation by the end of 2023 and will allow Bulgaria and Serbia to almost completely avoid gas dependence on Moscow. Russia is definitely losing the "gas" war with Europe.

[Sithara007]

^^^ I am curious to know from where the gas supplies will be sourced. Right now, Azerbaijan is the only source and most of their gas supplies are contracted to Turkey. There are other potential sources and the most important one is Turkemistan. But their gas supply is under long-term contract with China and Turkmenistan is not in a position to antagonize Russia at this point. Iran can be ruled out, due to geopolitical considerations. Then we have some undeveloped deposits in Egypt and Cyprus. But it will take at least a decade to develop these deposits.

[og kush420]

^^^ I am curious to know from where the gas supplies will be sourced. Right now, Azerbaijan is the only source and most of their gas supplies are contracted to Turkey. There are other potential sources and the most important one is Turkemistan. But their gas supply is under long-term contract with China and Turkmenistan is not in a position to antagonize Russia at this point. Iran can be ruled out, due to geopolitical considerations. Then we have some undeveloped deposits in Egypt and Cyprus. But it will take at least a decade to develop these deposits.

I think this oil and gas problem has made the life misreable.
I our country the interst rate has increase to 32% and the life has been really hard - people cannot afford buying thier basic necessities

[Smartprofit]

^^^ I am curious to know from where the gas supplies will be sourced. Right now, Azerbaijan is the only source and most of their gas supplies are contracted to Turkey. There are other potential sources and the most important one is Turkemistan. But their gas supply is under long-term contract with China and Turkmenistan is not in a position to antagonize Russia at this point. Iran can be ruled out, due to geopolitical considerations. Then we have some undeveloped deposits in Egypt and Cyprus. But it will take at least a decade to develop these deposits.

For Europe, an alternative to the supply of natural gas from Russia is the state program for the construction of nuclear power plants. 

European bureaucrats are very reluctant to accept the idea that this is the only adequate way out of the current situation.  At one time, the program for the construction of nuclear power plants in Europe was curtailed.  This happened as a result of a series of catastrophic accidents at nuclear power plants (the most famous and destructive are the disaster at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant, which was located on the ocean). 

However, even in the case of a positive solution to this issue, the process of commissioning such a complex technological facility as a nuclear power plant requires a significant amount of time.

[pooya87]

^^^ I am curious to know from where the gas supplies will be sourced. Right now, Azerbaijan is the only source and most of their gas supplies are contracted to Turkey. There are other potential sources and the most important one is Turkemistan. But their gas supply is under long-term contract with China and Turkmenistan is not in a position to antagonize Russia at this point. Iran can be ruled out, due to geopolitical considerations. Then we have some undeveloped deposits in Egypt and Cyprus. But it will take at least a decade to develop these deposits.

Turkmenistan is not the most reliable source, their usage is already high enough that doesn't leave that much for exports.
Iran is already selling some small gas to Turkey which Turkey resells part of it to Europe and I don't see that increasing as you can already guess why.
Russia is also already a source for Europe whether through Turkey or other middle countries or through LNG.
Azerbaijan is also not that reliable since the regime in Baku is too unstable and riddled with a lot of problems internally.
One source you missed was the separatist controlled Iraq-Kurdistan but those hopes went up in smokes a couple of months ago when Iraq military took back control over that region...