Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[Rikafip]

Reminds me of that joke
A Russian guy wakes up, stops his Japanese alarm clock, goes to the bathroom shaves with his American razor, drinks a coffee from his Italian coffee maker while watching the news on his Korean tv, grabs his iPhone, jumps in his German car, and while cursing the Russian potholes arrives to work where while smoking some Gauloises he tells his colleagues how everything from the outside is bad. The list was way longer but you get the point.  

Good one . But yeah, it makes you wonder how country with natural resources and plenty of smart people doesn't make anything of the above (or at least not that many people would like to use).

Just like that Russian lady the other day swearing at a Ukrainian girl in Sweden, how bad Ukraine is and how Russia is great with her living for 30 years there, the Russian is so proud of their country but everyone tries to get out of there.

Reminds me of my cousin's girlfriend that is very left oriented(she was part of communist party while she lived in Croatia), hates capitalism & west and is very pro-Putin and all that while living in Ireland for the last 6-7 years and working for Amazon. She is probably in a state of constant cognitive dissonance

Communism and socialism are nice on paper when you live in a capitalist country and you don't have to wake at 6 in the morning to stay in queues for milk, once you have a taste of it suddenly you realize capitalism is way better.

As Margaret Thatcher once said, "the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money" and that's exactly what happened in Yugoslavia. It was all fine and dandy as long we were getting cheap loans from the west in order to keep us away from the USSR influence, but then in the 80s money ran out and problems started.

[DOH!]

Personally, I think the latest order to stop supplying oil and gas to Poland and Bulgaria is a tough move by the Putin administration in the face of growing pressure from sanctions.  Once again putting the US and Europe in this important supply shortage problem when winter is approaching.  It is precisely the right time that Russia is aggressively trying to strengthen the ruble… In terms of benefits, I think they will gain more than they lose by taking firm and decisive action.  They must make the most of their right to “dependence” to maximize the benefits of resilience for a weakening economy.

[pooya87]

Interesting how "highest quality of life" means also highest suicide rates

Hm, I don't see many developed countries in the top 20-30 countries by suicide rates.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/suicide-rate-by-country
Well the rates are amongst the highest which you can't claim there is "highest quality of life" when people are offing themselves every day. Just look at messed up countries like Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan,... where people don't have much to live for or the third world countries such as most of Africa which all have suicide rates that are far below those in Europe.
For example suicide rates in Iraq is 3.6 and 4.1 Afghanistan and 2.5 in Algeria while it is 13.8 in France and 14.5 in Switzerland, 14.7 in Sweden.

Note that I'm not saying quality of life is high in these places but it definitely not high in most of Europe. For goodness sake they are starting to ration food in Europe! How can the quality of life be so high when their food security is "seriously threatened" by a conflict in Ukraine and why is it not affecting the rest of the world?!!!
There is a reason why I love using the term carrot countries when describing such countries.

[Rikafip]

Well the rates are amongst the highest which you can't claim there is "highest quality of life" when people are offing themselves every day. Just look at messed up countries like Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan,... where people don't have much to live for or the third world countries such as most of Africa which all have suicide rates that are far below those in Europe.
For example suicide rates in Iraq is 3.6 and 4.1 Afghanistan and 2.5 in Algeria while it is 13.8 in France and 14.5 in Switzerland, 14.7 in Sweden.

To be precise, you said "highest quality of life" means also highest suicide rates" which is simply not true, even if suicide rates in France and Switzerland being higher than of those in countries like Syria and Afghanistan. From the link you shared, top 10 countries according to suicide rates and I don't see any with the highest quality of life, like you claimed (and no, South Korea is not among those countries). And according to that list Switzerland is ranked 31st, Sweden 29th and France 35th. So yeah, nowhere near top.

Note that I'm not saying quality of life is high in these places but it definitely not high in most of Europe. For goodness sake they are starting to ration food in Europe! How can the quality of life be so high when their food security is "seriously threatened" by a conflict in Ukraine and why is it not affecting the rest of the world?!!!

I live in one of the poorest EU countries (and on top of that in one of the least developed parts of that country) and I haven't felt any food shortages and regarding the rations, it usually happens when people are unreasonable and start piling up more stuff than they realistically need, like they did with toilet paper during that first covid lockdown. I've been around the world enough to see a real poverty people in Europe can only imagine so I still consider myself lucky being born here, even though its one of the poorer parts.

[riso2015]

The ban on Russian gas, the European problem or suicide for Russia, in my personal opinion, the embargo imposed by Europe on Russia can be said as a weapon for suicide, but many media that I searched are still considering additional sanctions against Russia, even the Italian prime minister. said there is no Russian natural gas embargo to consider now, if true this will be an additional sanction then surely other countries will feel the impact of all that, Russia will not suffer any loss, but my country will suffer the impact of all that. even now the price of oil in my country has soared.

[Pomogator]

I think Europe is shooting itself in the foot. All gas that Europe will stop consuming will be redirected to China and to all other countries interested in it. Of course, the profit for Russia will decrease, you will have to sell gas at a discount, but Russia will definitely not be left without money. It will be very difficult for Europe to survive these few winters for a complete rejection of Russian gas.

[Ozero]

I think Europe is shooting itself in the foot. All gas that Europe will stop consuming will be redirected to China and to all other countries interested in it. Of course, the profit for Russia will decrease, you will have to sell gas at a discount, but Russia will definitely not be left without money. It will be very difficult for Europe to survive these few winters for a complete rejection of Russian gas.

Oil and gas is not only in Russia. Now European countries are looking for and finding other suppliers of these energy carriers. These are the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, possibly Iran. However, it should be noted that even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU countries decided to gradually abandon the consumption of oil and gas in general and replace them with "green" energy from alternative sources. Therefore, in the future, the EU countries would still refuse oil and gas, including from Russia. War will only hasten this transition.

On April 27, Russia stopped gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria because they did not want to pay in rubles, as Russia demanded. Silly, of course, the decision. Now Poland and Bulgaria have the right to appeal to international courts about the illegality of Russia's unilateral violation of the terms of payment and the cessation of gas supplies, and Russia will suffer considerable losses. But that's not the point. Russia itself is accelerating its fall. For European countries, these are temporary difficulties, but for Russia, this is a catastrophe.

[bakasabo]

Two days ago my heating pipes became cold. I dont know (havent asked yet) if this is connected with Russian gas supply stoppage or heating season has ended. Anyway, it is quite chilly outside, yet still comfortable to be in t-shirt and shorts at home.

I am interested what solution our gas company will provide for regular panel houses. Every flat uses gas for cooking. Everyone has this ugly gas pipe in the kitchen. Ive spent quite a lot of money on kitchen furniture and repairs to hide it. Would be pity if I had to still keep this pipe, and use electric kitchen surface.

This little example shows that Russian gas ban is more Europe's and individuals problem, then a suicide for Russia. Russia will find a buyer for its gas easily, just by reducing its price. But Europeans will spend quite a time to find a substitution.

[DrBeer]

"Great victory in Russian", or how to shoot yourself in the leg, and also gouge out your eye with a flying cartridge case

Stopping the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria (according to the Russians, "fraternal people", which they love and respect very much! ) - this is exactly the case from the title
Russia decided once again to try to show that it can do what it wants, but it turned out like always. Now the doubts about the inadequacy of Russia as a gas supplier have become stronger for everyone in the EU! What immediately gave a reaction - the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen: “This is unjustified and unacceptable. And this once again testifies to the unreliability of Russia as a gas supplier. We are ready for such a scenario. We communicate closely with all Member States. We are working to ensure alternative supplies and the best storage levels across the EU"

[pooya87]

I live in one of the poorest EU countries (and on top of that in one of the least developed parts of that country) and I haven't felt any food shortages and regarding the rations, it usually happens when people are unreasonable and start piling up more stuff than they realistically need, like they did with toilet paper during that first covid lockdown.

Panic buying is only part of the problem which also doesn't last that long. The main problem is relying on other countries for certain basic needs, namely Ukraine and Russia these days. For example wheat and some basic grains are mostly imported which leads to shortage of basic foods from flour, bread, cooking oil, etc. that are directly affected by the shortage all the way to livestocks that are indirectly affected and leads to dairy product and meat shortages namely beef and poultry.

You suddenly have a food crisis at your hand which is what media and analysts have been saying all over the news for the past month (https://fortune.com/2022/03/30/rationing-europe-global-supply-crunch-natural-gas-russia-foodstuffs-war-ukraine/).

Basically the shortages and the possibility of rationing depends on where you live and how much your country is relying on other countries for basic food stuff and how much they already had in storage before the war broke out.
For example Germany relies a lot more on Russian gas than Spain does so obviously Germany is facing a lot more issues than Spain. It's the same with food; Spain that imports most of its corn and sunflower oil from Ukraine will face a lot more issues than another country that imports less.

[DanWalker]

Personally, I think the latest order to stop supplying oil and gas to Poland and Bulgaria is a tough move by the Putin administration in the face of growing pressure from sanctions.  Once again putting the US and Europe in this important supply shortage problem when winter is approaching.  It is precisely the right time that Russia is aggressively trying to strengthen the ruble… In terms of benefits, I think they will gain more than they lose by taking firm and decisive action.  They must make the most of their right to “dependence” to maximize the benefits of resilience for a weakening economy.

The cessation of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria shows that Russia is getting tough with unfriendly partners, which is a warning to Europe.
Russia has an advantage in the gas war with Europe, if Europe accepts payment in rubles, it means they have lost the war, if they refuse, they have to find an alternative to Russian gas. The gas contract is about to be renewed, let's wait and see who will give way.
The cessation of gas supply by Russia to the two EU countries will trigger a protracted war between Europe and Russia, which will have a strong impact on world oil and gas prices.

[stompix]

Panic buying is only part of the problem which also doesn't last that long. The main problem is relying on other countries for certain basic needs, namely Ukraine and Russia these days. For example wheat and some basic grains are mostly imported which leads to shortage of basic foods from flour, bread, cooking oil, etc. that are directly affected by the shortage all the way to livestocks that are indirectly affected and leads to dairy product and meat shortages namely beef and poultry.

The EU is both the largest exporter and producer of wheat in the world, France alone exports 2/5 of what Russia does.

Russia didn't export grain to Europe.
https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/rus
neither did Ukraine:
https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/ukr

Of but of course, you have better sources than the whole world for your data, as usual

[justdimin]

Sure the education in western countries seems much higher than in Russia, but there is a big issue here in Europa what we don't have and what Russia has a lot of. And that is natural resources. On paper Europe looks like a good continent with a lot of strong countries. But if the whole world trading would collapse, so would Europa. We are highly dependant on imports. The question is on what cost is Europe willing to cancel the gas trade with Russia? Buying gas from Russia makes the most sense for us because it's the closest country and they already have pipelines running to us. It takes years to build pipelines, we can't just change the infrastructure for gas overnight.

Just because you have gas, doesn't mean that you could control other nations. The difference is that they could take your and all of your allies money with other stuff and you will be forced to pay that with gas. That's education, that's power, that's business people all getting together.

If you pay for McDonalds, apple, google and whatever else really, doesn't matter what it is if it's a business owned by the west then you are going to pay that with your gas. This means that the fight is still one sided, west could afford to pay Russia to get gas, because they already got a lot from them and they will be just getting the payment in gas form instead of fiat.

[macson]

The fact is the fact - war has one advantage, it always accelerates things up. In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries. Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

reducing the need for gas and oil, the impact is an increase in prices for food and beverages because their distribution will definitely be disrupted.  If Europe and the US can find other alternative solutions that can replace oil and gas then it will be the best solution so that the sanctions they impose on Russia are carried out effectively. 

[DrBeer]

The fact is the fact - war has one advantage, it always accelerates things up. In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries. Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

reducing the need for gas and oil, the impact is an increase in prices for food and beverages because their distribution will definitely be disrupted.  If Europe and the US can find other alternative solutions that can replace oil and gas then it will be the best solution so that the sanctions they impose on Russia are carried out effectively. 

A good alternative is the ability of Russia to sell gas and oil only within the framework of the "Oil and Gas for Food" program, lasting 50-100 years, because still need to pay reparations to all the countries affected by its aggression! And 50-100 years in the status of a country of the 4th world, they will also put the brains in their place for lovers of the "great empire" and the "new Reich"

[laurenB7742]

Small correction: The majority of the world isn't dependent on China, 0 country is dependent on them alone because I have never seen Chinese people working for other nations. Economically, we all trade and we are dependent on each other. Countries are dependent on China the same way China is dependent on them.

You are right, Nations are dependent on each other; while some might be the major producers of certain commodities or services, they need a market to purchase them.

If you consider the situation in Russia, many EU countries are against their actions, but need to be lenient on sanctions as they get their oil and gas from them, that's the situation I was trying to point out in China; If they happen to take an action which puts them in disagreement with the West, heavy sanctions cannot easily be imposed as these Nations rely on raw materials from China. China of course would suffer if they lose the demand, but as the major suppliers, countries would struggle to find alternatives, just as they are doing with Russia.

No state can survive on its own without mutual help. No state has all the elements alone. If Russia's gas is banned, the problem will not only fall on Russia but also on other countries. 
Because a large portion of Russia's gas is used in other countries, and if the supply is cut off in a hurry, they will be in big trouble. Inventing alternatives is not a word of mouth. It takes a lot of time and research behind this.

On the other hand, Russia will also try to find alternative markets. And in that case, they have two options. China and India.

And as @Upgrade00 said, if China can relax sanctions and form an alliance with Russia, I don't think they will do so. Although Russia will try to supply gas and oil to China, we must not forget that Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil supplier and will not allow Russia to take its place. China will not want to go against other countries and wear cannons.

[kryptocanon]

This with no shadow of doubt will only create problems for them Europeans, which of course its happening already. Russia still stands firmly despite all the sanctions imposed on her. It is indeed a huge necessity to the Western sides.

[Scripture]

This with no shadow of doubt will only create problems for them Europeans, which of course its happening already. Russia still stands firmly despite all the sanctions imposed on her. It is indeed a huge necessity to the Western sides.

Russia is able to sustain for now but eventually, if EU countries will find a way to look for alternatives this will be the start for Russia to worry and of course they will move more aggressively because of this. I wonder what's the situation right now between Russia and Ukraine, but I hope they can settle this one as soon as possible because many are already affected by this. In my country we are still paying a huge gas cost as well, I guess we are all affected.

[CaVO32]

This with no shadow of doubt will only create problems for them Europeans, which of course its happening already. Russia still stands firmly despite all the sanctions imposed on her. It is indeed a huge necessity to the Western sides.

But I believe they will slow down in the next coming months once their military is already nearing at their dead end. It seems for me, Putin is the suicidal one on this picture. But high likely, we will see some developments very soon. I don't think this war can go on extended period of time. Many are already suffering as well as dead from this unnecessary war.

[Sithara007]

But I believe they will slow down in the next coming months once their military is already nearing at their dead end. It seems for me, Putin is the suicidal one on this picture. But high likely, we will see some developments very soon. I don't think this war can go on extended period of time. Many are already suffering as well as dead from this unnecessary war.

They have a victory day parade on 9th May. Any decision regarding the war may come after that. But there are rumors that Putin may announce a general mobilization on 9th. Right now Russia has around 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine, which is not sufficient to capture large areas outside what they already control. Even in the eastern part (East Kharkiv, Donest and Lugansk), most of the gains were made by the militia of DPR and LPR, who are more knowledgeable about the terrain. Russian forces have struggled to make gains in areas which they control and are constantly losing territory (North Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporozhia.etc).