Wheat War I is going to be World War III

[DrBeer]

Please add 8 more points to the general list of problems - Russia is actively stealing grain from Ukrainian storage facilities located in the temporarily occupied territories. This will make the picture more complete.
It is also worth adding that Russia will most likely ... export this grain, passing it off as its own! In Russia, the domestic market still uses mostly low-quality grain, and usually mixed with feed grain. And the currency is paid for quality grain. It looks like it's time to impose an embargo on Russian grain as well. the scale of Russian theft from Ukraine is global! The southern regions of Ukraine have always been very fertile.

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[yawars20]

There is no denying that world is effected by these two countries conflicts but still not this much as you prostrating it. Because there is always a conflict between different nation either they are from European side or from eastern countries the war always continues. The bitter thing is  that hypocritic media is overly covering it as a biggest conflict and creating a mess for everyone although there are bigger issue out there and many countries already loss millions of peoples but they didn't cover it like this.
you only pointed few countries and prostrating this matter as WORLD crisis is a fool act. The world has too many other problem yet to solve and this matter is not even close.

[fiulpro]

When we are talking about the problems that the world is facing because of the war between Russia and Ukraine we can take a pause and examine the threats Russia made recently about Finland joining NATO in the future suggesting a nuclear war soon. The world will crumble if that happens and the only thing left would be good produce rightly which would only prevail in countries which are tropical and have extensive farming like India but that would be so sudden that most of them might not even have a chance to stop exports and focus internally and that is exactly why China is preparing for the worst.

[amishmanish]

Food wars were common before advent of fertilizers. During world war 2 Britishers diverted the food grains produced in India to supply their troops in war. This led to famine in Bengal and death of three million people.  The cot of rice rose by 8 times and the response of winston churchill was summarized by his famous statement if famine is there “Why hasn’t Gandhi died yet?”.

[goldkingcoiner]

I am really confused as to how exactly this is going to lead to a wheat war? I really do not see wheat as the only food source available to humans and I am sure that all countries grow their own wheat in addition to buying wheat off other countries. In fact, the only reason we buy wheat from other countries is because it is more cost effective to buy from poorer countries rather than grow your own.

I think people should stop the panic because all this BS FUD is only serving one purpose, which is to spike the price of wheat artifically. Thus only benefiting the stock market traders.

People are such dumb sheep, its almost laughable if it wasn't so sad.

[laredo7mm]

Your post reminds me of the current situation in my country. Oil prices in hear spike 3X within a month. Other food prices also spike a little bit but it is not bad like a European country. It seems the impact of the war is spreading all over the world. Many economists in my country warn about a massive food crisis in the coming days.

When we are talking about the problems that the world is facing because of the war between Russia and Ukraine we can take a pause and examine the threats Russia made recently about Finland joining NATO in the future suggesting a nuclear war soon. The world will crumble if that happens and the only thing left would be good produce rightly which would only prevail in countries which are tropical and have extensive farming like India but that would be so sudden that most of them might not even have a chance to stop exports and focus internally and that is exactly why China is preparing for the worst.

Yes, i have heard the news too. Russia deployed the Iskander missile system on the border of Finland whose range is around 500KM. We know Putin's threat is not a child's words. His warning could treat as his course of action. I really hope the war will not break out in Finland though the chance is very high.

[salad daging]

The issue of food scarcity is solely because in this era farmers are few. Every one wants a clean job only a few are willing to go dirty for their cents. If mechanised farming gets high sponsorship by government agricultural banks I think many might consider farming as an occupation. Also If nations close down their boarders on importation of food may be the famine that smells close might be alleviated

This is true because, regardless of anything, now there are very few farmers and sometimes out of it all just old people without any generation and indeed only a few people are tempted by agriculture.
in this case in my country in the past few years most of them were farmers but nowadays it is very rare especially for young people who still want other jobs that are more suitable and not dirty.

But if things like this continue then it is not impossible that this will become a split considering that food is getting more difficult and on the other hand the need for food is increasing.

[Sithara007]

It is like a double whammy. Russia is having a bumper crop, but they can't export some of it as a result of sanctions and embargoes. Ukraine is one of the top producers, and the less said about them, that better. And another major producer (India) has banned wheat exports for this year. Now at the receiving end we have the major wheat importers. On top we have Indonesia, and then there are countries such as China, Turkey, Egypt and Algeria. China and Indonesia may continue with imports from Russia, but the other countries are in a tricky position.

[Fortify]

The global food situation is worsening every second and in a month or two could lead to mass unrest followed by regimes suppressing the violence and eventually a wider war between countries stealing each other's food supplies to ease their domestic unrest, something similar but worse than what we saw during the first months of pandemic where Europeans countries were stealing from each other to ease their own crisis.

It seems that you have a favorable bias towards Russia underlying your whole post, yet Russia is the one that started this global food crisis because of the totally unnecessary war with Ukraine - it began the biggest war that Europe has seen since WW2 simply because the free Ukrainian people were fed up of being controlled by one of Putin's useless puppets. Unfortunately it is all the poorest in the world who will be worst effected by this and the richest countries of the world will likely suffer the least. It seems that even India is restricting their exports and this sort of trade protectionism is bad for the world. The sooner the war in Ukraine stops, the sooner we can get back to normal peace and cheaper food.

[Gyfts]

Fertilizer is also a big issue. From my understanding, ammonium nitrates and urea are produced/exported from Russian and natural gas is an intermediate in the production of fertilizers which is under limited supply as well. The food supply is low and the cost of growing food is increasing. The luxury most residents in first worlds have is that their government is able to afford to make deals in order to secure food for its citizens, albeit at an elevated price from what's normal (better than nothing). The famine usually effects those already impoverished.

[Sithara007]

Fertilizer is also a big issue. From my understanding, ammonium nitrates and urea are produced/exported from Russian and natural gas is an intermediate in the production of fertilizers which is under limited supply as well. The food supply is low and the cost of growing food is increasing. The luxury most residents in first worlds have is that their government is able to afford to make deals in order to secure food for its citizens, albeit at an elevated price from what's normal (better than nothing). The famine usually effects those already impoverished.

It is not just the nitrate (NH₄NO₃) fertilizer. Russia and Belarus together account for more than one-fourth of the global supply of Potash fertilizer and as a result of the embargoes the price has gone up exponentially. And regarding the nitrate fertilizer, natural gas is one of the key ingredients and many of the manufacturers in Europe and the rest of the world are forced to suspend their operations (as a result of sky high natural gas prices). As a result of the limited supply, we can expect that the cereal production will go down around the world in another 6 months time. And given the fact that cereal prices are already at record highs, it may put a lot of pressure on the grain importing countries.

[be.open]

It is like a double whammy. Russia is having a bumper crop, but they can't export some of it as a result of sanctions and embargoes. Ukraine is one of the top producers, and the less said about them, that better. And another major producer (India) has banned wheat exports for this year. Now at the receiving end we have the major wheat importers. On top we have Indonesia, and then there are countries such as China, Turkey, Egypt and Algeria. China and Indonesia may continue with imports from Russia, but the other countries are in a tricky position.

Russia has a ban on wheat exports until the end of June 2022.

[pooya87]

Please add 8 more points to the general list of problems - Russia is actively stealing grain from Ukrainian storage facilities located in the temporarily occupied territories.

That's part of the first point, whenever one country invades another they usually steal their resources too. For example as we speak US is stealing more than 80% of Syrian oil.

There is no denying that world is effected by these two countries conflicts but still not this much as you prostrating it. Because there is always a conflict between different nation either they are from European side or from eastern countries the war always continues. The bitter thing is  that hypocritic media is overly covering it as a biggest conflict and creating a mess for everyone although there are bigger issue out there and many countries already loss millions of peoples but they didn't cover it like this.
you only pointed few countries and prostrating this matter as WORLD crisis is a fool act. The world has too many other problem yet to solve and this matter is not even close.

You are absolutely correct about other wars but the difference is the involvement. For example when the bloodthirsty Western coalition invaded Afghanistan and killed innocent people their countries weren't involved and wasn't affected, just their troops. In Ukraine they are all involved, they are sending covert troops, they are sending billions of dollars worth of equipment to Ukraine, their imports and exports are directly affected,...
For example this war has cost US at least $60 billion so far which is about two times higher than their cost when they invaded Afghanistan ($7 trillion in 20 years, that's 29 billion a month).

I am really confused as to how exactly this is going to lead to a wheat war? I really do not see wheat as the only food source available to humans

Well it is not just wheat, it is basic food stuff. Have you noticed that cooking oil is also scarce and/or has much higher price? That's because the supply of other products are also lower.
Have you noticed meat prices have also gone up and in some countries they are saying they soon have to put their livestock down because they can't provide their food? That's another case which would also affect dairy products too.
What else is left? Fruits and vegetables. That's covered by the scarcity of fertilizers.

As I said before, we are not yet at crisis levels but things are escalating towards that and with mismanagement we could face crisis very soon.

but they can't export some of it as a result of sanctions and embargoes.

What sanctions and embargoes? As long as they are paying Russia in Ruble to import their oil and gas and other things, there is no sanctions and embargoes. That means if Russia is not selling food to the same countries (in EU) that are buying their energy, they are doing it on purpose.

It seems that you have a favorable bias towards Russia underlying your whole post, yet Russia is the one that started this global food crisis because of the totally unnecessary war with Ukraine

I have no bias towards the country that caused one of the biggest starvation in my country's history during WWII. We were neutral in that war.
We are discussing the effects of the war on global food security not the war itself or whether or not it was necessary. We could discuss that in another topic if you like!

[be.open]

I am really confused as to how exactly this is going to lead to a wheat war? I really do not see wheat as the only food source available to humans

Well it is not just wheat, it is basic food stuff.

You are right, wheat is not only bread and spaghetti, first of all it is the basis of the forage base for animal husbandry (chickens, pork, beef).

[Mometaskers]

A large portion of North Africa and Middle East import their wheat.

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But the difference with Europe and the reason why I focused on it is because the countries in West Asia that are facing the problems (Syria, Afghanistan, Lebanon,...) are all used to these problems. Their countries are already torn apart by decades long wars and food was already scarce. Europeans on the other hand have not experienced this and aren't expecting it.

Makes me wonder if the civil unrest in Europe would be as bad as if it happened in those countries you mentioned. My impression is that Europeans have become too docile for that.

[Lucius]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Europe seems to be highly dependent on imports when it comes to basic food (wheat, oil, live-stock feed, etc.) and others and the supply has decreased while the prices are soaring.

That is true, the EU of almost 500 million people imports a lot of food and is far from meeting its needs with its own production. Unfortunately, this is the result of a policy that has been pursued for decades, and which is yet to show its negative consequences, although some say we can see it today. Everything is still good as long as the product is on the shelves regardless of the price, but when people start arguing over who will get the last liter of oil and a bag of flour, then real riots will break out.

This is starting to feel like WWII already when the Allies invaded India for example and how Churchil stole their food and starved more than 3 million Indians to death. The difference however is that the option to invade East to survive their European War aka WWII is no longer there for the West, so my guess would be a lot of conflict between different countries in Europe if the food crisis worsens, NATO falling apart and eventual mass migration towards East.

At this point, I would not go so far as to talk about direct food conflicts within the EU, nor that NATO will fall apart. There is food on the market, and those who are willing to pay the highest price will get it - the EU is certainly at the top of those who have the means to provide enough food for their inhabitants. On the other hand, NATO is expanding even more and getting stronger with the accession of Sweden and Finland - and with the Russian invasion, no one thinks of leaving such a military alliance that guarantees security.

I am more concerned about countries that were heavily dependent on cheap grains from Ukraine and Russia, and now find themselves in a very difficult situation that means only one thing, great hunger, and mass protests.

[hugeblack]

In my corunty, the weather is hot and the desert is extended, so I think that we import a large part of our food products, mainly wheat, and it seems that its prices will not decrease in the short term.

The good side is that most of our countries are linked to agricultural contracts (leased agricultural areas) in both Brazil and Australia, so I think that we will not face a problem unless environmental problems such as drought and forest fires increase, but the occurrence of a world war, especially on Australia, will have a direct impact on us.

As for the rest of the countries of the year, I do not think that we will face a problem this year, as all governments expect a crisis, but its extension for several years will cause a problem.

[BOAEDAN]

Wheat war will be the third world war, most likely if European countries will definitely be a big problem, because wheat is their staple food, if the war can't be stopped it will definitely be a disaster for all countries, even though my country does not make wheat as a source of food. staple food but the impact of the war weighed heavily on us, all basic commodities went up, unemployment increased and our economy was very weak.

[pooya87]

On the other hand, NATO is expanding even more and getting stronger with the accession of Sweden and Finland - and with the Russian invasion, no one thinks of leaving such a military alliance that guarantees security.

I can't agree with you here because we've seen that alliances don't mean much in real world when personal interests are involved. NATO is good as long as they are all threatened not just one of them. In other words I strongly believe that the moment Finland joins NATO, Russia will invade and NATO won't do anything about that either.
Remember that even though Ukraine was not part of EU or NATO they had given them all kinds of promise for protection. That is why Ukraine let them enter in first place. Neither NATO nor US did anything for Ukraine apart from sending some low tier weapons and praying for them from afar!

but the occurrence of a world war, especially on Australia, will have a direct impact on us.

I'd be more worried about China, their expansion into Solomon Islands and the recent war simulation where they blew up a mock up of the most strategic Taiwan port looks like they are also gearing up for invasion. If US fools Australia to get involved in that conflict (through AUKUS Alliance) those islands are going to be a thorn in their side.

[stompix]

That is true, the EU of almost 500 million people imports a lot of food and is far from meeting its needs with its own production. Unfortunately, this is the result of a policy that has been pursued for decades, and which is yet to show its negative consequences, although some say we can see it today. Everything is still good as long as the product is on the shelves regardless of the price, but when people start arguing over who will get the last liter of oil and a bag of flour, then real riots will break out.

Bruh, what? The EU is the net exporter of food, seriously, where do you get this idea?
Let's assume you have ignored by previous post and the links in it, what does the EU import in such quantities, coffee, bananas, and macadamia nuts?

Top wheat importers:
https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=wheat&graph=imports
Scanning for European countries....27   United Kingdom, 66   Switzerland   500   ....
Top wheat importers:
Scanning for European countries
https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=wheat&graph=exports
2   EU-27   36,000    lol? Lol?
Chicken meat exports?
3   EU-27   1,800   
Beef?
6   EU-27   685   
Pig meat? And don't you dare touch this subject!!! 
1   EU-27   4,750   

So what do we import so much?  Oh, the famous sunflower oil, which..is not that much used in Europe actually, because well, Italians and with their diet, nordic and central with fat cooking, and the rest with rapeseed oil, which again!! we export a ton of it!

On the other hand, NATO is expanding even more and getting stronger with the accession of Sweden and Finland - and with the Russian invasion, no one thinks of leaving such a military alliance that guarantees security.

That's true Putin has managed to unite the whole of Europe better than ever.
The army has become so scared of the warmongers pushing them to dos stupid things that finally, Kremlin has given the green light to Khodarenok to come in prime time on Russian state TV and tell them Russia can't fight another war,  telling again and again, each day things they don't want to hear

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1523036461595242498
https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1526329765065539592

Those were two shows one week apart, just thinking that not only he didn't commit suicide by shooting himself 100 times in the back with three different weapons but he came back, pushed in the show by the higher and he simply doesn't give a fuck it's clear what's happening.
The writing is on the wall, we have accomplished our mission despite this not being our original mission and we have done so despite fighting the entire world, so we will just retreat behind our borders since that's what patriotism means, defending the country.  This is Hitler 2.0, we have successfully retreated back to defend the fatherland! 

It is not just the nitrate (NH₄NO₃) fertilizer. Russia and Belarus together account for more than one-fourth of the global supply of Potash fertilizer and as a result of the embargoes the price has gone up exponentially.

And ignoring the fact that Canada and Germany make 1/3 of that production and while Germany and Spain produce 7% of it, Europe only needs to feed 1/20 of the world.