Wheat War I is going to be World War III

[DrBeer]

What I've found with my little research is that the problem is about yield.

With these fertilizers (rich with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) they can keep reusing the same soil and harvest a lot and multiple times a year. With no fertilizer or with traditional ones the yield significantly decreases and you can't harvest as many times. The soil simply doesn't have what the crop needs to grow.
Not to mention that you can't produce nearly as much traditional fertilizers like guano!

So for example if a wheat farmer was producing 1 ton of wheat before, without these fertilizers they can produce only 20-30% of that.

Not sure about the figure of 20%-30%, but I agree that the yields will be down by a lot without chemical fertilizers. In Sri Lanka they banned chemical fertilizer and the agricultural sector got completely destroyed as a result. Here in India, there is a shortage of fertilizer (both Ammonia based and Potash based), because of the war in Ukraine. Here the government procures the supply and then gives them to farmers free of charge. But they are unable to secure enough supplies at reasonable rates and as a result we are having an acute shortage.

Meanwhile, in Russia there is simply nowhere to store grain, fertilizers and ammonia (judging by Putin's statements yesterday on the food problem).
1. Russia will supply 30 million tons of grain to needy countries by the end of the year.
2. Russia is ready to donate potash fertilizers to developing countries.
3. Russia is ready to supply ammonia in the amount of two million tons to countries in need.

 
Now the question is - will Russia remain on the globe of the earth at all, and you give out such humoresques here!

[1715013345]

1715013345

[1715013345]

1715013345

[1715013345]

1715013345

[beej]

I was watching a food documentary last week, and at some
point within the segment it caught me on how wheat and
grains had significant effects on economies and politics
on the past. Wheat is undeniably in demand at all times.
With the ongoing effects of war and climate change, it’s no
wonder the global supply of grains and other agricultural
products are in peril. I live in an agricultural country, and
even local grains here are having difficulties since farmers,
yields and agricultural methods have been low throughout
the developing years. We used to export to neighboring
countries that was decades ago, sadly now we import
from those nations. Truly wheat is an asset, I wonder
if the other grains out there have the same potential
as well.

[AjithBtc]

Slowly there is increasing productivity of wheat, but with the floods the same have once again been affected. Another thing it is important to take care of the produced wheat. In my country there is no proper storage system and this lets the production go wasted when there is unexpected rainfall or something like that. According to me, if the storage and buying wheat from the farmers were done giving them the right price wheat requirement all around the world can be fulfilled.

[Sithara007]

Slowly there is increasing productivity of wheat, but with the floods the same have once again been affected. Another thing it is important to take care of the produced wheat. In my country there is no proper storage system and this lets the production go wasted when there is unexpected rainfall or something like that. According to me, if the storage and buying wheat from the farmers were done giving them the right price wheat requirement all around the world can be fulfilled.

Storing wheat can be expensive. A better alternative would be to convert it to ethanol and use for transportation. Countries such as Brazil have already implemented ethanol blending with gasoline. And I am sure that it will make economic sense, given the recent spike in crude oil prices. I am not sure about the modifications that need to be made to the motor engines. 5% or 10% blend may not require additional modifications, but anything more than that may require expensive changes to cylinder walls and valves. Still, in the long term it should be beneficial.

[BRINIRHA]

i also dont understand why purposely ban fertilizers from the beginning, it started a chain reaction up to starve countless countries.
old fertilizers still works like the guano but farmers today are not very familair with it.

What I've found with my little research is that the problem is about yield.

With these fertilizers (rich with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) they can keep reusing the same soil and harvest a lot and multiple times a year. With no fertilizer or with traditional ones the yield significantly decreases and you can't harvest as many times. The soil simply doesn't have what the crop needs to grow.
Not to mention that you can't produce nearly as much traditional fertilizers like guano!

So for example if a wheat farmer was producing 1 ton of wheat before, without these fertilizers they can produce only 20-30% of that.

correctly. When we do agriculture, the land is not too large. then it is still possible to use organic fertilizers produced by themselves, such as fermented animal urine for spray fertilizer and fermented manure for sow fertilizer. But organic fertilizers have limitations. because we cannot possibly mass produce processed organic fertilizers ourselves. so when we farm in a large area. then the need for fertilizer must be very much. while organic fertilizers are difficult to make in a short time and difficult to make in large quantities. unless there is a special industry that makes it. as in Indonesia, there are now many companies producing liquid fertilizers. with low prices but the quality is not less competitive with chemical fertilizers.
but if you have to keep buying fertilizer. then the profit will still be small. especially coupled with the price of crops that decline during inflation. fertilizer increased but agricultural yields fell. This is what is happening in some developing countries. this can trigger farmers' protests against government policies. whereas the agricultural sector is the sector that the government should pay the most attention to. because the lungs of a country are in the agricultural and livestock sectors. related to food. but I see in developing countries the government does not pay attention to the farmers. they pay more attention to the construction of high-rise buildings. construction of the office sector and toll roads. while the agricultural sector is always marginalized. even though the food crisis can bring down a country.

[Gayong88]

My opinion on this is that wheat is not the dominant staple food for humans. each country is different with different starch. All may know Wheat is a very important commodity because it belongs to the bread group and Wheat is a staple food in most of the world. I think we all know what will happen. So, it can be assumed that the wheat war will become the third world war if it continues like this.

[jesselui]

I think energy, rather than wheat, will cause a third world war. Oil is slowly dying out. The importance of natural gas is starting to increase. And there is a very serious energy shortage in the world. We still cannot use the sun and we are turning to fossil fuels. Yes, we are very close to the third world war.

[Sithara007]

I think energy, rather than wheat, will cause a third world war. Oil is slowly dying out. The importance of natural gas is starting to increase. And there is a very serious energy shortage in the world. We still cannot use the sun and we are turning to fossil fuels. Yes, we are very close to the third world war.

The so called energy crisis is a result of decades of mismanagement. Governments around the world were too early and enthusiastic to close down coal and nuclear power plants and jump on to the green bandwagon. Those who made the gradual progression (such as France) are still managing the crisis in a better way. It is countries such as Germany, who made the abrupt jump, are paying for their mistakes. On top of that, oil and gas companies are facing increasing hostility from the governments and they reduced the amount allocated for exploration and development of new fields. This has also contributed to the current shortage in a significant way.

[pooya87]

I think energy, rather than wheat, will cause a third world war. Oil is slowly dying out. The importance of natural gas is starting to increase. And there is a very serious energy shortage in the world. We still cannot use the sun and we are turning to fossil fuels. Yes, we are very close to the third world war.

I disagree. Fossil fuels are not running out any time soon and their importance is just as high as it ever was. For example in Iran it is estimated to have 300+ more years of fossil fuels for both domestic use and exports but in somewhere like US they estimate to have less than 5 years of fossil fuels left.

The crisis you see is mostly local and it is due to bad decisions and it is NOT because they didn't use renewable energies like the sun! But it is because they built their country based on what they didn't have!

Take Germany for example. They should have never become industrialized because they didn't have gas and other basic requirements in their industries themselves! In other words, for decades they kept building massive industries based on what they had to buy from abroad because they didn't have nowhere near as much of it as they needed!
The result was obvious and foreseeable: 30% of them are already claiming to be insolvent and are declaring bankruptcy while 60% of them claim they have so much problems that they too may become insolvent very soon. All because they can no longer import what their industries need.

Now imagine if Germany never built all those energy hungry industries and instead focused on what their own geography and resources allowed them to do. Today there would have not been any crisis in Germany!


P.S. This is not the same for food though because countries can survive and thrive without big factories but they can not do that without food independence which is not possible in a lot of geographies.

[DrBeer]

What is most ridiculous, the agreements on the "corridor for the sale of wheat to the starving inhabitants of Africa", as a result, gave only 2 results:
1. Removal of part of the sanctions from the world-terrorist country
2. Selling grain to anyone except "starving Africa"
Features of the modern world

[pooya87]

What is most ridiculous, the agreements on the "corridor for the sale of wheat to the starving inhabitants of Africa", as a result, gave only 2 results:
1. Removal of part of the sanctions from the world-terrorist country
2. Selling grain to anyone except "starving Africa"
Features of the modern world

Well it is the starving Europe that has been accumulating all the food they can get their hands on pretending that this accumulation is for the people of African! Read the opening post again, the Food War has been getting worse.

The news is also already over a month old where they made a laughable statement:
"the freed shipments will mean more grain on the world market and consequently lower prices".
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5398852.msg60744052#msg60744052

The situation in Germany is getting worse

* Customers have to be prepared for many bottlenecks in the supply of food this winter
* The situation is getting worse and worse, the frozen food industry is making headlines with an urgent appeal to the federal government.

It's 1 minute to 12!" The industry is experiencing the worst crisis since the end of the Second World War due to the extremely sharp increase in energy costs. If they do not receive state support , the consequences for the population would be devastating.

Aldi, Rewe and Co.: soon empty shelves completely normal?

The signatories of the fire letter, which include the German Frozen Food Institute eV (dti) and the Association of German Cold Stores and Cold Logistics Companies eV (VDKL), also point out the additional burdens caused by disrupted supply chains, staff shortages and scarcity of raw materials.

"Companies can no longer compensate for these massive cost increases through savings or by passing on a proportion of the sales prices to customers," the company warns. Some companies feared that production would soon come to a standstill and that refrigerated logistics centers for food distribution would be closed. "Some are even preparing for possible bankruptcy !"

[GelatikKembar]

I think energy, rather than wheat, will cause a third world war. Oil is slowly dying out. The importance of natural gas is starting to increase. And there is a very serious energy shortage in the world. We still cannot use the sun and we are turning to fossil fuels. Yes, we are very close to the third world war.

How terrible it would be if that happened and the energy was not renewable which could at any time run out,
Currently, the energy problem has become a global issue.
let's see what happens in the future and let's hope nothing terrible happens

[DrBeer]

What is most ridiculous, the agreements on the "corridor for the sale of wheat to the starving inhabitants of Africa", as a result, gave only 2 results:
1. Removal of part of the sanctions from the world-terrorist country
2. Selling grain to anyone except "starving Africa"
Features of the modern world

Well it is the starving Europe that has been accumulating all the food they can get their hands on pretending that this accumulation is for the people of African! Read the opening post again, the Food War has been getting worse.

The news is also already over a month old where they made a laughable statement:
"the freed shipments will mean more grain on the world market and consequently lower prices".
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5398852.msg60744052#msg60744052

So this is expected - but how Europe wanted - "to sit with one ass on two chairs"? That doesn't happen. Now there will be less nyamka, and you need to buy sweaters, and without work, sit on welfare for a bit .. How else if you got in touch with the bastard regime, tied up your economy on the resources of this regime, and things look like terrorism is not terrorism, but "need to negotiate" ... Nothing, will be a good lesson for the future!

[Vinaa77]

The real question is how would each country handle this crisis.

Actually this is a difficult question to answer, only the government can answer it, because overcoming the crisis is the government's responsibility. But we as a society of course can only increase food stocks from agricultural products. However, agriculture is also not able to increase maximum yields because of the reduced use of fertilizers. This is due to the increase in fertilizer prices. The crisis was also caused by the weak purchasing power of the people.

And at what scale is the conflicts going to break?

About on what scale the conflict will break out of course if a global economic crisis in general has occurred, then war will break out. War will occur when some countries are already weak against the economy, and people begin to starve, and civil wars begin to emerge.
The state party that started the attack on another country also measured the scale of the opponent's strength. They wouldn't attack brutally even if it was a small country. The greatest power of the state is in the hands of the people.

[pooya87]

About on what scale the conflict will break out of course if a global economic crisis in general has occurred, then war will break out. War will occur when some countries are already weak against the economy, and people begin to starve, and civil wars begin to emerge.
The state party that started the attack on another country also measured the scale of the opponent's strength. They wouldn't attack brutally even if it was a small country. The greatest power of the state is in the hands of the people.

I think we will see a lot of protests (like the past couple of months in EU) but I don't think any civil wars take place though. The main war would break out between countries. Over the past couple of months we are seeing an increased amount of tensions between nations as well like the one between Greece and Turkey which are at the brink of war.
In fact we could see multiple centers of conflict each among multiple countries like multiple Balkan nations.
This could also be one of the reasons why some EU members are starting to form their own new smaller "European Union" like the one between France and England.

[electronicash]

About on what scale the conflict will break out of course if a global economic crisis in general has occurred, then war will break out. War will occur when some countries are already weak against the economy, and people begin to starve, and civil wars begin to emerge.
The state party that started the attack on another country also measured the scale of the opponent's strength. They wouldn't attack brutally even if it was a small country. The greatest power of the state is in the hands of the people.

I think we will see a lot of protests (like the past couple of months in EU) but I don't think any civil wars take place though. The main war would break out between countries. Over the past couple of months we are seeing an increased amount of tensions between nations as well like the one between Greece and Turkey which are at the brink of war.
In fact we could see multiple centers of conflict each among multiple countries like multiple Balkan nations.
This could also be one of the reasons why some EU members are starting to form their own new smaller "European Union" like the one between France and England.

unless there is some deadly natural  disaster like flood or earthquake which sweep off the wheat - I am not sure there will be any crisis in today's world
It is the modern time and people rush for help where there is needed - these days Angelina Jolie is visiting flood affected areas of Pakistan and people are admiring her.

there are disasters. while there is flood in Pakistan, there are droughts in different parts of the world including in US. the worse is yet to come if Putin will really start a nuclear war, lets just count this as disaster as well because i bet no wheat will grow when that happens.

it does happen in my country where actresses visits an area devastated by typhoons. don't know how it could it help.

[Sithara007]

~~~~
the worse is yet to come if Putin will really start a nuclear war, lets just count this as disaster as well because i bet no wheat will grow when that happens.
~~~~

If there is a nuclear war resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, then the chronology will be something like this:

1. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukrainian troops in newly annexed regions of Ukraine (Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhia)
2. Americans using tactical nuclear weapons against Russian troops in these regions
3. Russians responding by nuking American bases in EU, middle-east, Japan and Korea
4. All-out nuclear war between Russia and NATO

I really hope that both sides will let go their ego and refrain from starting a nuclear war. But at this point, there is a significant probability of that happening. WW3 will wipeout a large fraction of the human race, if it ever realizes.

[DrBeer]

~~~~
the worse is yet to come if Putin will really start a nuclear war, lets just count this as disaster as well because i bet no wheat will grow when that happens.
~~~~

If there is a nuclear war resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, then the chronology will be something like this:

1. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukrainian troops in newly annexed regions of Ukraine (Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhia)
2. Americans using tactical nuclear weapons against Russian troops in these regions
3. Russians responding by nuking American bases in EU, middle-east, Japan and Korea
4. All-out nuclear war between Russia and NATO

I really hope that both sides will let go their ego and refrain from starting a nuclear war. But at this point, there is a significant probability of that happening. WW3 will wipeout a large fraction of the human race, if it ever realizes.

"Both sides" is a very misleading expression.
This is not a relationship of spouses, Russia is not a hysterical wife. This is a war, and Russia is an aggressor country, a terrorist country that violated all agreements and attacked Ukraine. Once again, Russia is an aggressor country. Which, having lost the economic and conventional war, now wants to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear country. In this case, it would be acceptable to launch preemptive, both tactical and strategic, nuclear strikes against decision-making centers in Russia, to ensure the destruction of the heads of the terrorist regime, in order to prevent a nuclear war. Today, in relation to Russia, after all the crimes that it has committed and which have already become known, it is possible not to apply any moral and ethical principles to it.

I repeat once again - the Russian regime, Russia as an entity - is a cancerous tumor in the body of the whole world. As you know, the fight against cancer is the total destruction of cancer cells, cancerous tumors and metastases. Otherwise, cancer (read Russia) will destroy the whole world.

[pooya87]

It is the modern time and people rush for help where there is needed - these days Angelina Jolie is visiting flood affected areas of Pakistan and people are admiring her.

I'm confused, how does that help anybody if a celebrity visits the aftereffects of a flood?!!! Is she helping people shovel stuff out of the way? Or is she bringing people money to help them rebuild?
Or is she just there for the cameras?

If there is a nuclear war resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, then the chronology will be something like this:

1. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukrainian troops in newly annexed regions of Ukraine (Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhia)
2. Americans using tactical nuclear weapons against Russian troops in these regions
3. Russians responding by nuking American bases in EU, middle-east, Japan and Korea
4. All-out nuclear war between Russia and NATO

I really hope that both sides will let go their ego and refrain from starting a nuclear war. But at this point, there is a significant probability of that happening. WW3 will wipeout a large fraction of the human race, if it ever realizes.

I don't think the nuclear war is predictable but I also don't think if US were to nuke Russia, Russia would nuke anywhere except US mainland. Not to mention that Russian nukes can reach US mainland a lot faster than the US nukes could reach Russian population since Russian population is mostly in the far west of Russia while their nukes are located in the far east close to America.

[bakasabo]

It is the modern time and people rush for help where there is needed - these days Angelina Jolie is visiting flood affected areas of Pakistan and people are admiring her.

I'm confused, how does that help anybody if a celebrity visits the aftereffects of a flood?!!! Is she helping people shovel stuff out of the way? Or is she bringing people money to help them rebuild?
Or is she just there for the cameras?

She is UNHCR ambassador. She was there imo, to attract more attention to that disaster. To make people care about that, and not just "another flood, someone would help them definitely, but not me". I think she was more like a walking commercial there. Sort of celebrities advertise stuff in their social media, and that stuff sales goes high. She visits flooded areas, people starts to make donations. I think it works like that.