Will Russia Emerge As The Next Dominant Superpower

[Fortify]

During World War II the world's major powers were bombed back to the stone age. With the exception of two nations. Russia and the united states. This set the stage for america and russia to emerge as the world's dominant superpowers leading into the cold war, korean war and vietnam war which followed.

Both the USSR and USA enjoyed the luxury of surviving World War II with their territories and economies largely intact. Profiting handsomely by loaning capital to other nations to rebuild. While the rest of the world toiled under debt and reconstruction efforts.

Looking at the current era a similar trend could emerge. America, the european union and china all carry large ratios of debt to GDP close to 100%. Russia's debt to GDP ratio is by far the smallest of any major power at around 20%. If a major recession hit global markets a case could be made for russia's government and economy being best structured to weather it. Russia is one of the most self sufficient nations in terms of raw materials, food and energy production. Russia also has many other world powers reliant and dependent on them for natural gas and other resources.

Long story short russia has many advantages over the USA, EU and china if an economic crisis hits.

If global markets are devastated by a crisis, russia is (in my opinion) the number #1 prospect to emerge as the next dominant superpower.

To avoid this, I think the united states would do well to keep its economy strong. As a hedge against russian encroachment. There isn't much alternative deterrent.

While russia's invasion of ukraine has stalled. Russia isn't trying very hard. They don't have to. They simply have to wait for the next big economic crisis when free money and support thrown at ukraine can no longer be funded. Then resistance may well crumble.

The best deterrent against invasion and war may be a strong economy with enough liquidity to make invasion too high priced too consider. Our current era with high deficits and weak economies could be interpreted as an open invitation for ambitious regimes like russia to invade us.

On the plus side if russia is the next dominant superpower they may be bitcoin friendly. At least that would be one positive thing we might look forward to in the horror show that could be the future.

You conveniently skip over the fact that this economic juggernaut that you describe had an economy on the scale of Italy before this war began and had a population of twice the size. Russia is a cesspit that has been hobbled by it's leaders for decades, if not centuries and the average person their has been unable to change it in all that time. The last major source of income to Russia, what has been propping it up for so long thanks to its huge land mass and little care for the environment, is the oil & gas it's able to extract (thanks to technology from other countries). Europe, the customer willing to pay far higher prices than anyone else, is working to cut those supplies to zero as soon as possible and considering the war in Ukraine (which can be fought for many years) is depleting $1 billion from Russia per day - it will soon be unable to continue funding it and everything else will collapse. Hopefully then Putin will be finished and a new opportunity for freedom can arise.

[Gozie51]

There is this news coming out lately on the cancer illness on the president of the country and the prediction of less than 2 years till the death of the team member, Is a very difficult news to prepare for or keep. Russia does not provide platform to produce news. THe present war cant help

This looks like a funny tale. Put which president are you talking about? Of course before two years things between Ukraine and Russia would have been settled. But this is a rumour you can provide link that it will be read. However Russia will not emerge as the superpower, perhaps US has seen this possiblity and working against the Russian hegemony on Soviet Union.

[Desmong]

This is a big question that we need to understand it before we think of answer it because it involves a lots of understanding about what is meant by world power and what Russia has that can made them a super world power. We need to know that the nato is expanding and growing day and day which is increasing there dominance to the world. More countries are still planning to join nato which is going and is making the United States the world power.

[paxmao]

China's debt is no different from other countries. Japan is above 200% GPD for example, Italy, Spain, Greece, France... all have debt for decades.

Japan, italy, spain, greece and france. Are all too far into debt to donate funds to ukraine.

Eventually the united states will be as well.

What happens then? When russia still has low debt and can afford to mobilize.

The united states spent more than $12 trillion dollars on military operations in the middle east. Eventually that money runs out and nations cannot defend themselves (or ukraine) without bankrupting their budget.

Actually all those countries have already donated military material to Ukraine and all agree on an oil embargo. Debt becomes secondary when survival is a problem.

The US has implemented a 40 Billion plan. The help line, huge for Ukraine and Russia means just an minimal part of the US budget. Again, it is a question of sizes:

While the U.S. ranks as the world's largest economy with a GDP of $21 trillion,2 Russia's nominal GDP comes in at $1.48 trillion. 1 In terms of GDP, Russia trails much smaller countries, such as the United Kingdom, Italy, and France.

And this year, US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.

[Sithara007]

~~~
And this year, US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.

Russia's economy will contract for sure. But this is going to be temporary. As long as they have the capability to export their natural resources, Russia will be able to make a comeback. And ordinary Russians have the ability to deal with hardships. And now coming to the United States, the inflation rate is inching towards the 10% level. Federal debt is ballooning and already there is a lot of controversy related to the baby formula shortage. The US economy won't remain "untouched" for too long. Very soon it will start contracting.

[bittraffic]

~~~
And this year, US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.

Russia's economy will contract for sure. But this is going to be temporary. As long as they have the capability to export their natural resources, Russia will be able to make a comeback. And ordinary Russians have the ability to deal with hardships. And now coming to the United States, the inflation rate is inching towards the 10% level. Federal debt is ballooning and already there is a lot of controversy related to the baby formula shortage. The US economy won't remain "untouched" for too long. Very soon it will start contracting.

This is if Russia can continue to use the gas, I think they will dominate just by this advantage. They are however not the super dominant in Asia, there is always China that has higher advantage over them. China also have the gas supply of their own, not as big as Russia but China has the technology. If the two will start a quarrel I think the unity of both can change. As for now, Its Russia who will win against the West due to the gas dependency of EU.

US economy is crashing and the government are still in the denial stage of it. But the manifestation in people's frustration is showing already when they see prices of products.

[be.open]

This is if Russia can continue to use the gas, I think they will dominate just by this advantage. They are however not the super dominant in Asia, there is always China that has higher advantage over them. China also have the gas supply of their own, not as big as Russia but China has the technology. If the two will start a quarrel I think the unity of both can change. As for now, Its Russia who will win against the West due to the gas dependency of EU.

It is typical US foreign policy to try to quarrel with neighboring countries in order to stir up tensions in the region. Why should Russia quarrel with China if it is possible to live as neighbors and strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation? This is our common continent, along with India, Europe and the Middle East. The US has spread its toxic influence around the world and it will soon come to an end. We can live in peace and act together when the US and Western Europe give up their unfounded claims to exclusivity and superiority over other peoples. Russia can become the new guarantor of global security, it has enough power for this and enough self-control not to use this power in its own selfish interests. Because Russia is the largest and potentially the richest country in the world, with a huge abundance of natural resources. She does not need to plunder other nations in order to prosper.

[Hydrogen]

US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.

Really?

Like this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5400804.0

What do you base your claims on?

[Kakmakr]

You forget a few things......

Russia made most of their money from Oil and Gas sales....and a lot of countries are now moving away from being dependent on Russia for Oil and Gas. (So they are losing money now)

They are spending lots of money to replace weapons like rockets & Tanks that were lost in the Ukraine war. (Expenses) and the loss in income due to the sanctions are crippling some of their companies. (A huge blow for their economy and tax revenue)

Look at countries like Zimbabwe... that was also sanctioned by the West during Robert Mugabe's rule. 

[be.open]

You forget a few things......

Russia made most of their money from Oil and Gas sales....and a lot of countries are now moving away from being dependent on Russia for Oil and Gas. (So they are losing money now)

The threat of an embargo has driven up oil and gas prices, so Russia is making more money even by selling less physical volume. And there is no embargo itself, Russia has simply shifted the logistical focus from Europe to Asia.

They are spending lots of money to replace weapons like rockets & Tanks that were lost in the Ukraine war. (Expenses) and the loss in income due to the sanctions are crippling some of their companies. (A huge blow for their economy and tax revenue)

Mostly expired ammunition is consumed, which otherwise would have to be disposed of, incurring additional costs. Instead of spent weapons, new ones are being made, the Russian military-industrial complex is fully loaded with work and orders for years to come. An armed conflict on a foreign territory is a very profitable event from an economic point of view.

Look at countries like Zimbabwe... that was also sanctioned by the West during Robert Mugabe's rule.  

Russia is not Zimbabwe.

[pooya87]

Russia can become the new guarantor of global security, it has enough power for this and enough self-control not to use this power in its own selfish interests.

I agreed with your post except this part of it. No one country can or should have all the power ever. Take a look at US. It wasn't always this corrupt regime spreading death and destruction around in the world. The centralization of power in one place corrupted the regime and they abused the hell out of it too.
Let's not forget that Russia in Soviet era has also done a lot of shit and spread separatism in the region.

One thing that makes me happy about the emerging new world order is that no one country has all the power. Multiple powerhouses have shaped that are pursuing shared interests and those that don't fall in line are going to be left behind like Turkey that is currently too dumb to know they got stuck in a hellhole they dug for themselves in Syria simply because they refused to accept the new world order.

[bakasabo]

I dont believe that Russia will become a dominant superpower. By looking on history, every 10-20 years something bad happens to Russia, like wars, financial crisis and etc. 2022 - Ukraine, 2014 - devaluation of ruble, 2008/2009 great recession, 1998 - another devaluation of ruble, 1991 - USSR collapse, 80` - deficit of everything.

Now the world will face consequences of Ukraine-Russia war. Hope that it will end soon and things will start to improve and get back to normal. And expect something bad in +2030. With such continuous and endless improvement of bad times of past, it is hard for Russia to become a dominant superpower. Some people say that Russia faith is to suffer always. Just look at the list of wars involving Russia. Fighting all the time, never had time to rest.

[paxmao]

US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.

Really?

Like this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5400804.0

What do you base your claims on?

Again, you are mixing concepts. The volatility of the rouble is based on the competitiveness of the currency in the global market, not on the GDP. On top of that and if you are speaking of debt in particular, you should look at the interest rates. You cannot keep the rate that the RF central bank has set without damaging growth.



I am afraid that I am going to explain some very basic economic concepts here:

Just so that even  those with little understanding of what this means: US finances it's debt at 0.75% interest. Russia has to pay 17% (as of today) for people to hold roubles - along with breaching contracts and demanding payment in roubles. Now you got the full picture and why debt at .75% is not really an issue.

What happens when people can get a 17% just by lending the money? Very simple: they do not invest and they may choose not to buy beyond the strictly necessary. This situation cannot hold - it is temporary and the valuation of the rouble, in my view, will be permanently damaged with the new diplomatic stance of the RF.

Lack of investment has a side consequence on countries that are heavy exporters of commodities - production requires CAPEX. High interest rates make CAPEX projects and productive investment less attractive as just by holding you get 17%.

Just to put an example: If you have 1000 USD and you leave them during 5 years at 17% you would get 1873 USD ("risk free"). That is a "trash bond" and the RF has become exactly that: a trash debtor.

At this point on the discussion and to make it fair, I would ask you on what do you base your claim that a country with 1/15th of the GDP of the US and subject to sanctions is going to be the "next superpower".

OCDE data to 2060 paints a very different picture (unfortunately I cannot link a picture, so just select Russia, US, OCDE and China). The next superpower will not write Latin or Cyrillic characters.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm

[be.open]

US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.

Really?

Like this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5400804.0

What do you base your claims on?

Again, you are mixing concepts. The volatility of the rouble is based on the competitiveness of the currency in the global market, not on the GDP. On top of that and if you are speaking of debt in particular, you should look at the interest rates. You cannot keep the rate that the RF central bank has set without damaging growth.



I am afraid that I am going to explain some very basic economic concepts here:

Just so that even  those with little understanding of what this means: US finances it's debt at 0.75% interest. Russia has to pay 17% (as of today) for people to hold roubles - along with breaching contracts and demanding payment in roubles. Now you got the full picture and why debt at .75% is not really an issue.

What happens when people can get a 17% just by lending the money? Very simple: they do not invest and they may choose not to buy beyond the strictly necessary. This situation cannot hold - it is temporary and the valuation of the rouble, in my view, will be permanently damaged with the new diplomatic stance of the RF.

Lack of investment has a side consequence on countries that are heavy exporters of commodities - production requires CAPEX. High interest rates make CAPEX projects and productive investment less attractive as just by holding you get 17%.

Just to put an example: If you have 1000 USD and you leave them during 5 years at 17% you would get 1873 USD ("risk free"). That is a "trash bond" and the RF has become exactly that: a trash debtor.

At this point on the discussion and to make it fair, I would ask you on what do you base your claim that a country with 1/15th of the GDP of the US and subject to sanctions is going to be the "next superpower".

OCDE data to 2060 paints a very different picture (unfortunately I cannot link a picture, so just select Russia, US, OCDE and China). The next superpower will not write Latin or Cyrillic characters.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm

Why don’t you say in your reasoning that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already lowered the rate twice, most recently by 3%, and now the key rate in Russia is 11% with a tendency to further decrease? Why don't you also say that Russia, unlike Western countries, has a very small debt burden and the issue of debt refinancing is not too acute?

[paxmao]

US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.

Really?

Like this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5400804.0

What do you base your claims on?

Again, you are mixing concepts. The volatility of the rouble is based on the competitiveness of the currency in the global market, not on the GDP. On top of that and if you are speaking of debt in particular, you should look at the interest rates. You cannot keep the rate that the RF central bank has set without damaging growth.



I am afraid that I am going to explain some very basic economic concepts here:

Just so that even  those with little understanding of what this means: US finances it's debt at 0.75% interest. Russia has to pay 17% (as of today) for people to hold roubles - along with breaching contracts and demanding payment in roubles. Now you got the full picture and why debt at .75% is not really an issue.

What happens when people can get a 17% just by lending the money? Very simple: they do not invest and they may choose not to buy beyond the strictly necessary. This situation cannot hold - it is temporary and the valuation of the rouble, in my view, will be permanently damaged with the new diplomatic stance of the RF.

Lack of investment has a side consequence on countries that are heavy exporters of commodities - production requires CAPEX. High interest rates make CAPEX projects and productive investment less attractive as just by holding you get 17%.

Just to put an example: If you have 1000 USD and you leave them during 5 years at 17% you would get 1873 USD ("risk free"). That is a "trash bond" and the RF has become exactly that: a trash debtor.

At this point on the discussion and to make it fair, I would ask you on what do you base your claim that a country with 1/15th of the GDP of the US and subject to sanctions is going to be the "next superpower".

OCDE data to 2060 paints a very different picture (unfortunately I cannot link a picture, so just select Russia, US, OCDE and China). The next superpower will not write Latin or Cyrillic characters.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm

Why don’t you say in your reasoning that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already lowered the rate twice, most recently by 3%, and now the key rate in Russia is 11% with a tendency to further decrease? Why don't you also say that Russia, unlike Western countries, has a very small debt burden and the issue of debt refinancing is not too acute?

Sure... 11%... just around 10 times more than US and several times EU, UK, etc... rates, makes no difference to the argument whatsoever.

We can now talk about the recent European oil embargo approved today. THAT will make a difference.

[Sithara007]

Why don’t you say in your reasoning that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already lowered the rate twice, most recently by 3%, and now the key rate in Russia is 11% with a tendency to further decrease? Why don't you also say that Russia, unlike Western countries, has a very small debt burden and the issue of debt refinancing is not too acute?

The NATO bloc has already announced 6 rounds of sanctions and the Russian economy seems to be more or less intact. When the first round of sanctions were announced, everyone was expecting Russian to collapse and the Ruble to nosedive to exchange rates similar to what Zimbabwean dollar had in 2009. But the economy is doing quite well, and the Ruble has actually gained against the US Dollar. And it looks as if they will do good, as long as the revenues from oil, gas, coal and potash fertilizer continue to flow in to their coffers.

[be.open]

Sure... 11%... just around 10 times more than US and several times EU, UK, etc... rates, makes no difference to the argument whatsoever.

Not only the key rate figure is important here, but the fact that Russia is now in the phase of reducing the key rate, trying to weaken the ruble from excessive strengthening, and the West is in the phase of raising the key rate, trying to cope with rising inflation. And this is a great tactical advantage for Russia, because lowering the rate is easy and pleasant, but raising the rate is painful - given the large debt load of Western countries and inflated bubbles in the stock markets.

We can now talk about the recent European oil embargo approved today. THAT will make a difference.

EU oil embargo? Besides Hungary and pipeline oil? An attempt by the European Union to put a good face on a bad game, so as not to lose face. Russia will sell less oil for the West and get more money for it - that's what the oil embargo is in its current form.

[19Nov16]

What Russia did with an invasion to Ukranina certainly had conducted a deep study, the USA was experiencing a crisis of economic inflation and a lot of losses from the war that had been carried out, China continued to grow and stronger the economy and the military so that if there was a world war then China would help Russia Many analysts believe that if the invasion of Ukraine is successful, the country around the country such as Slovenia, Georgia, Latvia and so on will be the next target.

[pooya87]

We can now talk about the recent European oil embargo approved today. THAT will make a difference.

You are right it will make a difference but for importers such as EU not exporters such as Russia.

It's pretty simple, it's a matter of supply and demand and the fact that neither of them have changed.
Just because EU doesn't [supposedly] import Russian oil it doesn't mean they don't need oil anymore. Instead it means EU is going to buy it from elsewhere. But since the production has not increased anywhere else (ie. OPEC) that means if EU is importing oil from lets say Saudis they have to replace one of Saudi customers like China (just an example) but that also doesn't mean China won't need oil; instead that means that now Russian oil is going to Saudi customers that were replaced by EU (China in this hypothetical example).
In simple terms this means if Russia was exporting for example 1 million barrels of oil, they are still exporting 1 million barrens of oil but to different customers.

So why is it screwing EU while helping Russia?
That is pretty simple too. EU is now buying oil at a much higher price (almost $120) compared to before ($40-$60) so EU is spending a lot more money while the increased prices also cause inflation in those countries.
On the other hand Russia is selling the same amount of oil for a much higher price which means their revenue is almost doubled after the "embargo".

On top of that, China (the biggest economy in the world), is going to receive a small discount on the same oil which would put their economy further ahead. Their products will be cheaper than what is produced in EU so they would take over more of world's economy while replacing EU customers. This would shrink EU's GDP...

P.S. Any comment on Germany gas being cut off and how they were predicting a $240 billion hit and a "deep recession" in Germany as Reuters put it a couple of months ago?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

To avoid this, I think the united states would do well to keep its economy strong. As a hedge against russian encroachment. There isn't much alternative deterrent.

Sure, that would be an excellent strategy if the US hadn't already cocked things up with all the quantitative easing, stimulus checks, and who knows what else that's resulting in serious inflation right now.  I look at the price of gas every day, and it only seems to be going up and up, much worse than over a decade ago when it was above $4/gallon.

Meanwhile, I'm not even sure what's happening in Russia and their conflict with Ukraine.  It's almost as if that news story has lived out its life cycle--which is bizarre to me, because I would have thought they'd have owned Ukraine within the first two days of an invasion.  These days I'm never quite sure what to believe when I see it on the news.