The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy

[sana54210]

The war between Russia and Ukraine did indirectly affect many around the world,
it's definitely not good and the war is still going on,
it is not impossible that famine will occur later and hopefully the war can end soon

I also don't really like war in any country because the effects of war are very bad and can also make everyone's activities become hampered and also hampered every day. So in general I also don't want a war to happen because that could hamper everything and it could also affect the market for the worse. I also hope the war will end soon and I would be very happy if it happened.

That's an humane thing to consider. I mean I have nothing to do with Ukraine and Russia war because I do not live anywhere in them, plus it did helped my nation get good wheat and oil deals to be fair and we had one of the worst ever inflation in our nations existence for the past 100 years or so, up until this war and we benefited from it and now the prices are a lot more stable and we are financially doing much better, all because we had deals with both nations and did not picked sides so we benefited from both of them.

But at the same time, we are definitely doing something sad because it is definitely a sad situation to see people suffer so I rather do worse myself, to see people suffering from war.

[BlockchainMentors]

Due to war of Russia-Ukraine, there is shortage of gas supply and foods. After this, european countries agreed to reduce gas demand by 15% in end of this winter 2022.

[coupable]

Due to war of Russia-Ukraine, there is shortage of gas supply and foods. After this, european countries agreed to reduce gas demand by 15% in end of this winter 2022.

When I read about these decisions, I wonder how the demand for gas will be reduced to this percentage (15 percent is not a small percentage), especially with the approach of the cold season (winter is coming). And in the most extreme cases, how will the deficiency be compensated? Even if some countries have stations for the conversion of liquefied gas and have the capabilities to import it due to its high cost, there are countries that do not have these stations and do not have enough time to establish them.
Frankly, I no longer believe what they tell us in the media. Recently, there are news that European countries have begun to gradually ease their sanctions on Russia in an attempt to alleviate the crisis they are going through as a result of the sanctions imposed by Russia in return.

[Zlantann]

Due to war of Russia-Ukraine, there is shortage of gas supply and foods. After this, european countries agreed to reduce gas demand by 15% in end of this winter 2022.

The close connectivity between Russia and Europe economy cannot be disconnected even in a decade. Europe hyper-depends on Russia for oil and gas and Russia also depends on Europe for funds. Russia started preparing for this invasion long time ago and they know that Europe would be helpless for some years without them. The Russian economy has been fortified to withstand sanctions that's why Kremlin is not soft-paddling its invasion quests. Reducing gas demand would be a big challenge because the economic strength of the members of the European union are not the same. France, Germany or Spain can easily afford alternative source of power but what about less wealthy EU nations. Diversifying their energy source would be difficult because most of them cannot afford it. Hence, these nations would still have to depend on Russian less expensive oil and gas.The goal of reducing gas demand would be possible if richer EU nations would support others that are less prosperous to acquire alternative source of power.        

[coupable]

Due to war of Russia-Ukraine, there is shortage of gas supply and foods. After this, european countries agreed to reduce gas demand by 15% in end of this winter 2022.

The close connectivity between Russia and Europe economy cannot be disconnected even in a decade. Europe hyper-depends on Russia for oil and gas and Russia also depends on Europe for funds. Russia started preparing for this invasion long time ago and they know that Europe would be helpless for some years without them. The Russian economy has been fortified to withstand sanctions that's why Kremlin is not soft-paddling its invasion quests. Reducing gas demand would be a big challenge because the economic strength of the members of the European union are not the same. France, Germany or Spain can easily afford alternative source of power but what about less wealthy EU nations. Diversifying their energy source would be difficult because most of them cannot afford it. Hence, these nations would still have to depend on Russian less expensive oil and gas.The goal of reducing gas demand would be possible if richer EU nations would support others that are less prosperous to acquire alternative source of power.        

I wish you would explain to us what the countries you mentioned have alternatives for Russian gas. Especially Germany, which even if it wanted to acquire liquefied gas from America, it would take years to build liquefied gas conversion platforms.
The European Union helps member states if one of them needs a help-hand, as happened with Greece, but this will become almost impossible if all countries are suffering. The problem needs solutions from outside the union, and this is the role that America seems to be seeking to play.

[Ozero]

Due to war of Russia-Ukraine, there is shortage of gas supply and foods. After this, european countries agreed to reduce gas demand by 15% in end of this winter 2022.

The close connectivity between Russia and Europe economy cannot be disconnected even in a decade. Europe hyper-depends on Russia for oil and gas and Russia also depends on Europe for funds. Russia started preparing for this invasion long time ago and they know that Europe would be helpless for some years without them. The Russian economy has been fortified to withstand sanctions that's why Kremlin is not soft-paddling its invasion quests. Reducing gas demand would be a big challenge because the economic strength of the members of the European union are not the same. France, Germany or Spain can easily afford alternative source of power but what about less wealthy EU nations. Diversifying their energy source would be difficult because most of them cannot afford it. Hence, these nations would still have to depend on Russian less expensive oil and gas.The goal of reducing gas demand would be possible if richer EU nations would support others that are less prosperous to acquire alternative source of power.        

No matter how Russian propaganda tries to impose on the world the idea that the countries of Europe cannot do without Russian oil and gas, and sanctions do not harm the Russian economy, everything goes on as usual. European countries have embarked on a phase-out of oil and gas from Russia, and sanctions continue to intensify and drive Russia into a complete collapse. Europe by the end of the year refuses Russian crude oil, and next year and from oil products. With gas, it is a little more difficult, but even this dependence of Europe will be ended in a few years, not a decade. But for Russia, this will be a global problem, if not a catastrophe.

[Kelvinid]

For a few months that this war has been started, major countries are into suffering from their supplies which affect their economic system as well. Those countries that are relying on Russia have been mostly affected by this war, and I can confirm myself.
If this war will take so long, I believe a lot of people got hungry, especially from the 3rd world country and they are suffering the most.

The war between Russia and Ukraine did indirectly affect many around the world,
it's definitely not good and the war is still going on,
it is not impossible that famine will occur later and hopefully the war can end soon

People are hoping for the best of their country to get back from their normal life free from any harm and dangerous attacks. The people in both countries are facing huge problems, and also those countries that rely on supplies from Russia. If their leaders don't change their minds and still keep their anger, this war will never end and we all face the consequences of their fight. If this war will take 2-3 years, I can't really imagine that many people will get starve and die.

[cabron]

The impact of the war is certainly immediately felt by a country that is warring and slowly will be felt globally, especially Russia is a large country that supplies oil and gas needs so that when the world tries to apply an embargo, there will be problems with gas and oil supplies, war is the main cause of the recession global economy.

All are not okay when the pandemic started but this war can be prevented or even stopped if they just sit and have a peace talk. But NATO pushes through because they want Ukraine to win this unwinnable war.

And just like how UK tried did to Germany in the time of Hitler, embargo and food crisis was brought to deter each other.  All these gas and oil and wheat shortage will affect everyone. China vs US due to Taiwan is going to make it all worse.

[bakasabo]

All are not okay when the pandemic started but this war can be prevented or even stopped if they just sit and have a peace talk.

Both Ukraine and Russia already had numerous talks during this war (for example they met in Belarus and Turkey), but it gave no result. As well as they had numerous meetings before this war. Both parties are stubborn, stupid and see only their position.

I am very much interested to find real economic situation in Russia right now. Media cant be trusted, forum is full of trolls and propaganda. So far I looks (based on how media serve us news) Russian economy is doing great, European economy is terrified, world economy - as usually, someone is earning, someone is loosing.

[BRINIRHA]

Of course the war will definitely have an impact on the world economy. but the impact will be different for each country.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.

[dezoel]

I also don't really like war in any country because the effects of war are very bad and can also make everyone's activities become hampered and also hampered every day. So in general I also don't want a war to happen because that could hamper everything and it could also affect the market for the worse. I also hope the war will end soon and I would be very happy if it happened.

That's an humane thing to consider. I mean I have nothing to do with Ukraine and Russia war because I do not live anywhere in them, plus it did helped my nation get good wheat and oil deals to be fair and we had one of the worst ever inflation in our nations existence for the past 100 years or so, up until this war and we benefited from it and now the prices are a lot more stable and we are financially doing much better, all because we had deals with both nations and did not picked sides so we benefited from both of them.

But at the same time, we are definitely doing something sad because it is definitely a sad situation to see people suffer so I rather do worse myself, to see people suffering from war.

That’s exactly how we should approach and yet there are too many people who vote based on what benefits them the most. I mean the whole world is filled with people who like to vote based on who would make their life better and I do not mean like the nation better, I mean literally just based on them.

So the nation could go whole lot worse, but it benefits me and I get rich and I live a great life while millions suffer, people still vote like that in that case. Hence, Ukraine and Russia benefited some people and they are supportive of the war and even Russia attacking and killing, why? Because they are benefiting from it and that is a very shameful act.

[Sithara007]

Of course the war will definitely have an impact on the world economy. but the impact will be different for each country.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.

Everyone is impacted at this point. European countries are disproportionately impacted, because they are more dependent on fuel imports from Russia. Already there have been several regime changes across the world, which resulted from rising fuel prices. Sri Lanka and Pakistan are just two of the examples. The Americans are keeping fuel prices high, and engaging in geopolitics around the world. They tried to bully India to abandon Russian oil, but the government told them to GTFO. On the other hand, the Americans are earning good profits by exporting oil and gas to Europe.

[amishmanish]

The war impact is seriously very big, The current inflation is partly due to Russia Ukraine war. Disrupted supply chains, shortage o grains, market disruptions and so forth.. I think it all will run into billions,if proper analysis is done. I feel sad for those who lost lives and homes.. war is ugly. May it end soon.

[wxa7115]

Of course the war will definitely have an impact on the world economy. but the impact will be different for each country.
The impact that is felt the most is by the warring country itself. such as Russia and Ukraine. The next impact will also be felt by countries that do have an interest in countries that are at war. like Europe, which is used to receiving imports of natural energy sources from Russia. it is certain that Europe's economy will be in turmoil. we can see from the weakening euro. But for countries as far away as Southeast Asia. then the impact will not be so pronounced. America and Britain will also be affected. as well as other countries.

Everyone is impacted at this point. European countries are disproportionately impacted, because they are more dependent on fuel imports from Russia. Already there have been several regime changes across the world, which resulted from rising fuel prices. Sri Lanka and Pakistan are just two of the examples. The Americans are keeping fuel prices high, and engaging in geopolitics around the world. They tried to bully India to abandon Russian oil, but the government told them to GTFO. On the other hand, the Americans are earning good profits by exporting oil and gas to Europe.

And while the effects of the war can be felt all around the world the worst part is that even if the war ended tomorrow all of those side-effects will still be with us for a very long time.

As I doubt Europe will want to buy Russian oil, which means Europeans will have to face rising energy costs for a long time, and since everything uses energy to be produced then this means that the price of everything goes up as well, meaning that probably the only countries which will make a little profit out of all of this are those like India which can get cheap oil and the US which can sell oil to Europe for a premium.

[pooya87]

I wonder how the demand for gas will be reduced to this percentage (15 percent is not a small percentage),

Possibly after a bunch of gas hungry industries around Europe shut down and millions lost their jobs, the demand could decrease by 15%.

France, Germany or Spain can easily afford alternative source of power but what about less wealthy EU nations. Diversifying their energy source would be difficult because most of them cannot afford it.

It is not always about affordability, it is also about quality and availability.

For example the oil refineries that worked with Russia oil can not work with another oil like the one coming from US because they are different (light vs. heavy). So they basically have to rebuild the refinery if they want to change their source.
There are other alternatives that are similar, like Iranian oil that is the same exact thing as Russia oil but they face the challenge of availability since Iran isn't going to sell oil to Europe more than this.

Same with gas. The qualities are not the same. For example from what I gather the US gas is among the lowest quality gases alongside UK gas. So even when they import some LNG from US it still is low quality. Not to mention that US already significantly reduced its LNG export after the fake explosion in their LNG facilities.

[buwaytress]

Same with gas. The qualities are not the same. For example from what I gather the US gas is among the lowest quality gases alongside UK gas. So even when they import some LNG from US it still is low quality. Not to mention that US already significantly reduced its LNG export after the fake explosion in their LNG facilities.

Yup, they can always do more to refine or further improve but that's additional cost in the short term (building secondary refineries, e.g.). Though that also does mean it is about affordability in the long term.

I sense some changes coming in sanctioned oil (Iran as you mentioned, Venezuela possibly).

[Joshapat]

Many analysts believe that economic recession today occurs because of the influence of the Russian vs Ukraine war, may be true because the war has a strong economic impact, many investors are afraid of putting money on investment, and choosing short -term investments and this is what we fear because the economy will move negative.

[Sithara007]

Many analysts believe that economic recession today occurs because of the influence of the Russian vs Ukraine war, may be true because the war has a strong economic impact, many investors are afraid of putting money on investment, and choosing short -term investments and this is what we fear because the economy will move negative.

Talking about recession, this is what one of the leading German economists have to say:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-recession-increasingly-likely-bundesbank-says-2022-08-22/

A recession in Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy, is increasingly likely and inflation will continue to accelerate and could peak at more than 10% this autumn, the Bundesbank said in a monthly report on Monday.

Possibly after a bunch of gas hungry industries around Europe shut down and millions lost their jobs, the demand could decrease by 15%.

LOL.. Europeans deserve whatever coming on their way. For many decades, Russia supplied them with cheap natural gas, which enabled them to become the industrial powerhouse of the globe. And then all of a sudden they got the idea of waging a proxy war with the hand that feeds them. Till now, the EU member states have supplied tens of billions of USD worth of weapons to Ukraine, which is used against the Russian army. And the funny thing is that the Europeans are complaining when the gas supply from Russia is reduced.

[pooya87]

I sense some changes coming in sanctioned oil (Iran as you mentioned, Venezuela possibly).

Reading the news I sense that too but the evidence suggests otherwise.
I can't speak of Venezuela but Iran's sanctions were too long that Iran already found customers to sell oil to (including Europeans!). So in a way there is no need to sell any additional oil to Europe anymore, specially now that Iran is increasing pressure on the West for 43 years of sanctions.

In fact if any sanctions were to be lifted, there is a good chance that mostly Russia oil reaches European markets through Iran.
Hint: A little more than 2 months ago Greece seized an Iranian oil tanker and Iran responded by seizing 2 US oil tankers. The Iranian tanker was actually carrying Russian oil and was heading towards Western Europe.

[Mauser]

There is definitely a negative impact on economic growth all around the world from the Ukraine Russia war. After Russia and Ukraine itself the next countries that are affected the most seems to be the European Union. The cheap energy from Russia was a big growth factor for the countries. Without it there will likely be recessions now. It's also not really clear how long this war is going to last, this could be going on for years and make everything worth. The biggest problem right now is the rising inflation, which everybody says is the fault of the Russia Ukraine war. To me it seems this is an excuse companies use to increase profits. Prices were already rising last year, but since February this year much father. Governments are trying to support people by lowering VAT or giving energy bonuses, which seem to only land in the pockets of the big energy companies. If all companies keep raising prices it will make inflation much worse.