The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy

[RamBahadur.Gurung]

I sense some changes coming in sanctioned oil (Iran as you mentioned, Venezuela possibly).

Reading the news I sense that too but the evidence suggests otherwise.
I can't speak of Venezuela but Iran's sanctions were too long that Iran already found customers to sell oil to (including Europeans!). So in a way there is no need to sell any additional oil to Europe anymore, specially now that Iran is increasing pressure on the West for 43 years of sanctions.

In fact if any sanctions were to be lifted, there is a good chance that mostly Russia oil reaches European markets through Iran.
Hint: A little more than 2 months ago Greece seized an Iranian oil tanker and Iran responded by seizing 2 US oil tankers. The Iranian tanker was actually carrying Russian oil and was heading towards Western Europe.

Already Russians are transporting part of their oil in the stealth mode. Ship-to-ship transfers are taking place and Asian as well as European refineries are being used to produce finished products sourced primarily from the Urals crude. With prices remaining constantly above $100 per barrel, there will be a lot of demand for cheaper crude (not just from the third world nations, but also from the developed ones). Iran is definitely going to be one of the beneficiaries and as mentioned above, I foresee a large part of Russian crude supplies rerouted through Iran in the near future.

[$anounimus$]

World economy




This is hard time for economy to survive what is your thinking about the collapsing of world economy with highing inflation.

Yes. If you think about it in the long term, you will see that the world economy is collapsing like the oil spill in the Middle East. things could be worse than imagined if the current low oil prices continue or fall even further in the next few months or a year.

The ongoing fighting in eastern Ukraine, together with the diplomatic sanctions that Russia faces from most western countries, could indeed seriously affect economic growth around the world. This however has negative and positive effects also on the economy. But new markets are opening up because other countries are taking over the work of Russia.

[pooya87]

not just from the third world nations, but also from the developed ones

All the third world nations that have oil are either already too insecure due to being a conflict zone like Yemen or are already occupied and US is stealing their oil like Syria. There is no extra capacity left.
The developed countries that have oil have already picked a side and aren't changing it that easily.

[coupable]

I sense some changes coming in sanctioned oil (Iran as you mentioned, Venezuela possibly).

Reading the news I sense that too but the evidence suggests otherwise.
I can't speak of Venezuela but Iran's sanctions were too long that Iran already found customers to sell oil to (including Europeans!). So in a way there is no need to sell any additional oil to Europe anymore, specially now that Iran is increasing pressure on the West for 43 years of sanctions.

In fact if any sanctions were to be lifted, there is a good chance that mostly Russia oil reaches European markets through Iran.
Hint: A little more than 2 months ago Greece seized an Iranian oil tanker and Iran responded by seizing 2 US oil tankers. The Iranian tanker was actually carrying Russian oil and was heading towards Western Europe.

Already Russians are transporting part of their oil in the stealth mode. Ship-to-ship transfers are taking place and Asian as well as European refineries are being used to produce finished products sourced primarily from the Urals crude. With prices remaining constantly above $100 per barrel, there will be a lot of demand for cheaper crude (not just from the third world nations, but also from the developed ones). Iran is definitely going to be one of the beneficiaries and as mentioned above, I foresee a large part of Russian crude supplies rerouted through Iran in the near future.

This is very likely. But I do not think that the United States will allow this before reaching an agreement on the Iranian nuclear file. Tehran still has to make concessions to reach an agreement, and time is not on its side if America continues to delay the procedures. America is not in its interest to break Iran's isolation. Yesterday, the infrastructure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was destroyed in Syria by American planes, and Israel, on the other hand, reiterated its clear refusal to reach an agreement with Iran, as it does not want it to become a nuclear state (this will weaken the balance of power on the ground).
The biggest problem for European countries is not oil in the first place, because they can pressure producers to increase production, including Venezuela. The great crisis in the Russian invasion with the approach of winter. Gas is Russia's trump card in this confrontation.

[Abiky]

World economy



I look to it that the war affecting the economy of every country and with research about it , Al-Jazeera gave detail of how some countries is affected and if the war did not stop , more of the country will keep suffering. Russia is part of the biggest supplier in oil and the short suorpply is affecting the world. The war is affecting the europe countries hard because two countries in the war are two big supplies to europe. Russia cut supply of oil to euro and that affecting production, gas use. The Ukraine economy supply large amount of iron, steel, ore,stag and ash to the world and euro now in shortage include animal vegetable fats and oil to euro and the other countries.

This is hard time for economy to survive what is your thinking about the collapsing of world economy with highing inflation.

The whole world is suffering because both Russia and Ukraine are global exporters of natural resources and goods. Not only that, but Europe depends heavily on Russia's gas and energy supplies to survive. With sanctions taking place after the war, Russia's decision to limit gas & energy supplies to Europe has greatly affected its economy. I guess sanctions really backfired like Putin once warned. Now it's up to global powers to put an end to the conflict or things will only get worse in the long run.

We were merely living with COVID-19, but now the war has taken away our hopes of seeing the global economy restored back to its former glory. And don't let me get started with the potential war between China and Taiwan. If that blows up, then the world economy will die to a point where there's no room for recovery. These are uncertain times we're living into, so it's better to be prepared before it's too late. Just my thoughts

[Sithara007]

This is very likely. But I do not think that the United States will allow this before reaching an agreement on the Iranian nuclear file. Tehran still has to make concessions to reach an agreement, and time is not on its side if America continues to delay the procedures. America is not in its interest to break Iran's isolation. Yesterday, the infrastructure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was destroyed in Syria by American planes, and Israel, on the other hand, reiterated its clear refusal to reach an agreement with Iran, as it does not want it to become a nuclear state (this will weaken the balance of power on the ground).

The biggest problem for European countries is not oil in the first place, because they can pressure producers to increase production, including Venezuela. The great crisis in the Russian invasion with the approach of winter. Gas is Russia's trump card in this confrontation.

Relations between Iran and US are not warming up. Rather they are getting worse by the day. And Iranians are used to sanctions and at this point they know that the Western nations want them to increase the oil and gas production desperately. Since they are under embargoes for such an extended period of time, I really doubt whether Iran will be in a hurry to get rid of them. Especially given the perilous situation many of the Western economies are in. And increasing the oil production will also mean driving down the market price. This may not be acceptable for them.

[Pujangga]

The impact of the Russia vs Ukraine war is certainly very felt, now there are many economic crises and recessions that make it more difficult for people, especially many European countries that have a dependence on Russian gas so that it is difficult for European powers to stop Russian aggression.

[Haunebu]

Many people are forgetting the fact that COVID is the primary factor for the dwindling global economy while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is the secondary factor. This particular war just made things worse for the entire world basically.

All countries were supposed to unite in order to overcome the consequences of COVID, but that clearly didn't happen thanks to pathetic fools like Putin, Rajapaksa etc.

Am pretty confident that all economies except for the Russian and Ukrainian economics will recover pretty quickly.

[Agbe]

War between two countries always affect every other countries in the whole world. Because it stopped free movement of goods and service also restrict people from moving around in the territories or region. And also people are benefiting in a war. There are different ways people benefit in a war. War in one country can be a benefit to another country economy increase because the migrants most invest on the new country for survival and also they most eat so the money they spend in the newly found country is for the new country's benefit. And also it can be a problem to the host country because the population of the host country will be in the high therefore, the sharing formula of the country will change. The world always have advantage and disadvantage on war. Some countries benefit while some did not benefit. I believe Russian and Ukrain war are of the same magnitude of above analysis. Those who were doing business with Russia is no longer doing it again so it becomes their loss while the the countries that sell Gas to replace Russia are benefiting now.

[Sithara007]

Many people are forgetting the fact that COVID is the primary factor for the dwindling global economy while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is the secondary factor. This particular war just made things worse for the entire world basically.

All countries were supposed to unite in order to overcome the consequences of COVID, but that clearly didn't happen thanks to pathetic fools like Putin, Rajapaksa etc.

Am pretty confident that all economies except for the Russian and Ukrainian economics will recover pretty quickly.

Crude oil prices began to rise after Biden became the president of the United States and that is the main reason for concerns of economic slowdown around the world. Natural gas prices have also gone up like 20x in the last two years. I don't think that this has anything to do with the ongoing war. On the other hand, some of the countries such as China and India have benefitted from the war, since Russia is now forced to sell their crude oil at a heavy discount (and also other commodities such as coal and fertilizer).

[Jiovanni]

Couple of days back, another superyatch sunk in the Mediterranean Sea; in addition to the others that had sunk in the past couple of months.

I've got reasons to believe that this yatch belongs to another Russian oligarch. Smart move to get insurance dividend, since the war between Russia and Ukraine has deeply affected business.

[Subbir]

The whole world is also suffering the effects of the russia ukraine war. The russia ukraine war has stalled the economy and business as well as inflation around the world due to the shortage of various commodities including fuel oil, the prices of daily commodities are increasing. Low income people are in extreme trouble due to energy crisis.

[Gayong88]

When something catastrophic happens in one country, it has the potential to affect others. In addition, we must realize that the world economy cannot be separated from politics; the two are often intertwined which we rarely consider. We may not agree with the political decision-making process of other countries, but we cannot ignore the impact of these decisions on our own financial security which in the end the collapse of the world economy with high inflation.

[Ludmilla_rose1995]

Russia's war with Ukraine has sent crude oil prices skyrocketing, which has benefited Putin's country. Russian crude oil is embargoed by Western countries, this makes the Red Bear Country market turn to Asia and sell at a low price. Russia continues to experience profits reaching US $ 6 billion or around Rp. 89.4 trillion per day. Based on these data, he predicts this war will last a long time because Russia still gets a lot of profit.

"Why will this war between Russia and Ukraine take so long? Because it is very profitable,"

when the economy of many European countries declined, Russia with the war and sanctions they received actually profited. several European countries and several countries in other parts of the world have long been dependent on Russian oil, so their economy declines when oil supply stalls and world crude oil prices rise. crude oil is a vital commodity, the wheels of the economy will stall when the price rises or the supply stalls.

[Sithara007]

when the economy of many European countries declined, Russia with the war and sanctions they received actually profited. several European countries and several countries in other parts of the world have long been dependent on Russian oil, so their economy declines when oil supply stalls and world crude oil prices rise. crude oil is a vital commodity, the wheels of the economy will stall when the price rises or the supply stalls.

Russia is currently earning good amount of profit, because the embargo on Russian oil imports are yet to kick in (EU will be implementing it by the end of this year). Once that embargo is implemented, a lot more of the crude oil exports need to be re-routed to Asia and Russia maybe forced to provide additional discounts. Already they are negotiating with countries such as Indonesia, with offers of up to 30% discount. They will still be earning good profits, but not as much as they are earning right now.

[BuNga_cute]

Many people are forgetting the fact that COVID is the primary factor for the dwindling global economy while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is the secondary factor. This particular war just made things worse for the entire world basically.

All countries were supposed to unite in order to overcome the consequences of COVID, but that clearly didn't happen thanks to pathetic fools like Putin, Rajapaksa etc.

Am pretty confident that all economies except for the Russian and Ukrainian economics will recover pretty quickly.

It is true that the world's biggest problem is COVID-19, it makes all countries experience an economic crisis. Many countries are still struggling
to recover their economy, unexpectedly in 2022 there has been a war between Russia and Ukraine. This makes the world situation even worse,
especially European countries that rely on gas and energy supplies from Russia. Even Russia and Ukraine are producers of 30% of global wheat
exports, which is what ultimately causes cereal prices to rise. Ukraine and Russia are also one of the biggest exporters of other foodstuffs,
so the war between Russia and Ukraine has sent some food prices up. The impact is very much felt from the wars between Russia and Ukraine,
so war will always bring a lot of negative effects. Hopefully other countries can learn to solve problems peacefully, because we should as human
beings better help each other. Although the possibility is small, I still really hope that the war between Russia and Ukraine can end and the two
countries can make peace. However, it is the civilians of the two countries who suffer the most.

[pooya87]

Yesterday, the infrastructure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was destroyed in Syria by American planes, and Israel,

I sometimes don't understand what the hell they're thinking in CENTCOM. The attacks against their forces has increased 400% according to their own statistics (it is a lot higher in reality) and they decide to respond to only one of them by hitting some launching vehicles, which leads to multiple US based being hit 15 times in total.
Were the body bags worth it? Apparently the oil they continue to steal is more valuable than those troops they keep losing.

I really doubt whether Iran will be in a hurry to get rid of them. Especially given the perilous situation many of the Western economies are in.

Exactly. Unless some politicians go crazy and make some stupid decision. The problem US has is that they played all their hands and they have nothing more up their sleeves. The sanctions didn't achieve what they wanted and they ran out of things they can sanction (there are individuals who have been sanctioned at least 5 times lol). They can't do anything military-wise either since their losses would be massive not to mention that oil price that could go up to $1000.

[DrBeer]

All of the above - Covid, the second part of the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine (the start of the war was not in 2022, but in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea and the capture of two eastern regions of Ukraine), the oil / gas crisis, and other factors that really lead to a global crisis .
But of all the above, Covid (if it does not turn out to be a planned action for, which I also do not exclude) is a natural, "natural" problem. And everything else is the result of softness, inefficiency and cowardice of the modern international system, where a terrorist can not only kill neighbors and destroy neighboring countries, but also set conditions for the developed world, terrorizing their economy

[Sithara007]

Exactly. Unless some politicians go crazy and make some stupid decision. The problem US has is that they played all their hands and they have nothing more up their sleeves. The sanctions didn't achieve what they wanted and they ran out of things they can sanction (there are individuals who have been sanctioned at least 5 times lol). They can't do anything military-wise either since their losses would be massive not to mention that oil price that could go up to $1000.

NATO is very much over-rated. They failed in third world nations such as Iraq and Afghanistan. In Syria, Bashar al Assad mopped the floor with US-backed rebels. Now imagine how will an armed confrontation against Iran or Russia will turn out to be. Russia do have nukes, so there is no question of a winner emerging out of this confrontation. Everyone will lose. In case of Iran, even without the nukes NATO will be having a hard time if they go on the offensive. So we can safely assume that the military option is ruled out.

[pooya87]

In case of Iran, even without the nukes NATO will be having a hard time if they go on the offensive.

It's actually pretty funny when you learn that US regime hasn't even been able to win against Iran in their dreams
I'm talking about the biggest military exercise US had to date called the Millennium Challenge where they spent $250 million at the time (about $400 million with today's rate) with 13,500 service members in a massive area of operation and computer simulations to accompany that.

In the first run, US was defeated in 5 minutes. ROFL
They repeated the exercise many more times each time significantly restricting the other team's (Iran) capabilities. They were miserably defeated every time.
They continued this until the commander got too angry about continues defeats that he kicked the operation table and left the whole thing.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/how-iran-defeated-the-u-s-military-in-a-war-thankfully-it-was-a-simulation/

That is from early 2000 and it was not even using 1% of Iran's capabilities at full scenario, while it used nearly the full force of US military!