2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article.

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"

All quiet on the Western Front is one of a kind. I have seen many reviews on Youtube and they definitely deserve the award. I will definitely spend this weekend watching this movie. It is a true anti-war film compared to the previous (Dunkirk, Saving Private Ryan). The Ukranian-Russian war is just one of several global conflicts. In these chaotic times, we need a video like this to remind us of war's futility and peace's beauty.

I saw a trailer of this movie some few days back while watching a movie on my cable TV, and i particularly loved it and was going to search for it on the internet and download, but I later forget, coming here right now and seeing this comment took my mind back to it.\
Though I am yet to watch this movie in full, from the trailer I saw, I could tell it was a very beautiful movie and one the entire citizens of the world could learn a lot from, and i also agree that this movie indeed, deserve the award it got.
i will download this movie tonight and watch over the weekend.

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[nullama]

~snip~
I saw a trailer of this movie some few days back while watching a movie on my cable TV, and i particularly loved it and was going to search for it on the internet and download, but I later forget, coming here right now and seeing this comment took my mind back to it.\
Though I am yet to watch this movie in full, from the trailer I saw, I could tell it was a very beautiful movie and one the entire citizens of the world could learn a lot from, and i also agree that this movie indeed, deserve the award it got.
i will download this movie tonight and watch over the weekend.

I feel that I'm starting to read a few spoilers of this movie, so I might as well go and watch it soon 

Seems to be one of those great movies that you always remember about them, a classic let's say.

We'll see how it is. Very promising though

[Betwrong]

As for the probability of it winning in the Best Picture category, of course it's not that high, but definitely much more than 1%. Remember Parasite winning the Oscar for the Best Picture 3 years ago? To me Triangle of Sadness is a similar film, criticizing the rich and the poor in an amazingly funny manner.

There are similarities in the subject of those movies, but while Triangle of Sadness is a total underdog with not a good chances for a win, Parasite was the 2nd favorite (the only one ahead was 1917) that before Oscar won a couple of BAFTA and Golden Globe awards so it already had a decent resume. I might be totally wrong here, but I see Parasite winning was in part of compensation for Roma not winning an award the previous year and making it the first non-English spoken movie that won Best Picture award. Don't get me wrong, it is a quality movie and deserving winner (albeit for me the best one that year was probably The Marriage Story) but South Koreans made better ones in previous years that unfortunately weren't recognized.

That is very true. The director of Parasite himself, Bong Joon Ho, made several movies that, in my opinion, are among the best movies of all times. My personal favorites are Memories of Murder (2003) and Mother (2009), but I know that movie fans and film critics adore his other movies too. Park Chan-wook, Kim Ki-duk, Park Hoon-jung, all of them deserved Oscar, and when Parasite won the Oscar for Best Picture, to me it was the recognition of all Korean films I loved so much.

He was recognized by many for his outstanding performance in Aftersun, and I think he deserves a bet on him, especially with those odds.

He did a very good job and these are the good odds, but they are so high for a reason. For me personally Colin Farrel did the best job while I still haven't seen The Whale (it became available today on torrents so I'll probably watch it in the next few days) and since I like the odds (~6) I will go for him.

Colin Farrel did a great job in The Banshees of Inisherin, and, imo, his chances are not lower than Paul Mescal's. Only the odds, 6.37 for Colin Farrel and 33.32 for Paul Mescal, make me bet on the latter.

And I saw The Whale two days ago, and I think Brendan Fraser is the one with the best chances, and I have zero doubts about The Whale winning in the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category.

[Rikafip]

Seems to be one of those great movies that you always remember about them, a classic let's say.

Shouldn't you at least watch a movie before you make such assumption? Time will tell, but I don't see this version becoming classic even if it wins Best Picture Oscar. It is a good movie, but its not that good or groundbreaking (like 1930 version was) was eventually deserve that status.

That is very true. The director of Parasite himself, Bong Joon Ho, made several movies that, in my opinion, are among the best movies of all times. My personal favorites are Memories of Murder (2003) and Mother (2009), but I know that movie fans and film critics adore his other movies too. Park Chan-wook, Kim Ki-duk, Park Hoon-jung, all of them deserved Oscar, and when Parasite won the Oscar for Best Picture, to me it was the recognition of all Korean films I loved so much.

Memories of Murder is probably my favorite South Korean movie (Oldboy is very close at the 2nd place) and 2000s were probably the best decade of South Korean cinema. Even though they still make quality stuff (for example an excellent Burning that is made year before Parasite and is imho even a better movie), I feel like there is a slight drop in the amount of quality movies they made in the recent years.

[decodx]

Although many critics predicted that All Quiet on the Western Front would be nominated for the best international feature, it exceeded expectations by also receiving nominations in eight other categories, including best picture. Personally, I believe that this epic war drama is the most deserving of the best picture award. I recently watched the movie and was thoroughly impressed. The film effectively portrays the atrocities of war and offers a strong anti-war message, making it a top contender for the Oscar this year, imho.

[nullama]

Shouldn't you at least watch a movie before you make such assumption? Time will tell, but I don't see this version becoming classic even if it wins Best Picture Oscar. It is a good movie, but its not that good or groundbreaking (like 1930 version was) was eventually deserve that status.
~snip~

Yeah, absolutely.

It has the potential since everyone seems to speak highly of it. But of course I'll watch it first and form my personal opinion about it.

The thing is that you can't really watch all the movies so you need some kind of pre-selection, and this movie has a great pre-selection. That's what I meant by that 

[bbc.reporter]

I speculate that it might drop more after the Oscar votes are completed on March 2 to March 7.

Its definitely possible, I just checked the https://m.nicerodds.co.uk/academy-award and I think that odds on Everything Everywhere All At Once dropped slightly, which is a good thing for all those betting on All Quiet.

This is certainly a good movie for it because it ended with the German soldiers not wanting to go back on the field anymore after being given their last orders by their uncaring leaders and generals.

Warning, spoiler: Hm didn't movie ended in a total opposite way, by that officer sending bunch of soldiers into last battle just before armistice started, causing more unnecessary deaths?

I was not implying that the soldiers did not go. I was saying that they did not want to go anymore. They were demoralized, however, their leaders and generals were insensitive and uncaring. There was also the agreed time when the war should end that made going back on the field appear useless. But they went because they are forced to follow orders.

This will be the Hollywood agenda. To make everyone more aware of this war between Russia versus Ukraine and to cause us to ask what is the real purpose of this. I am quite certain the purpose is not for the people. It is for those leaders from both countries who will make direct and indirect profits from it politically and financially.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears the effect of All Quiet's victory in Bafta might be starting to disappear hehe. The odds for the movie is presently sitting on 10.00 from where I have placed my bet in coinplay.com on 7.42.

If on March 7 there are no more changes on the odds, I will accept reality and accept that Everything, Everywhere All At Once will be the winner for the best picture.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2434063-academy-awards-2023/159565631-academy-awards-2023-best-picture-winner

[Sithara007]

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Memories of Murder is probably my favorite South Korean movie (Oldboy is very close at the 2nd place) and 2000s were probably the best decade of South Korean cinema. Even though they still make quality stuff (for example an excellent Burning that is made year before Parasite and is imho even a better movie), I feel like there is a slight drop in the amount of quality movies they made in the recent years.

I would rate Korean crime movies much higher than any other language films in this genre. In case of Memories of Murder, the story is based on real life incidents, about the crimes committed by serial killer Choon-jae Lee. In real life, Lee murdered around two dozen people, and was arrested when he raped and murdered his sister-in-law. The tragic fact is that a number of innocent South Koreans were detained and tortured by the police while investigating the murders. Lee was convicted only when the DNA test results were made available, two decade after the crimes.

There are several other Korean crime movies which I found to be of high quality. I Saw the Devil is my all-time favorite (although it is more like a revenge movie rather than a murder mystery movie). A few other recommendations from me are Midnight, A Hard Day and Confession.

[Rikafip]

It appears the effect of All Quiet's victory in Bafta might be starting to disappear hehe. The odds for the movie is presently sitting on 10.00 from where I have placed my bet in coinplay.com on 7.42.

I don't know what happened but last time I checked (no more than few days ago) Everything Everywhere All At Once was at ~1.4 and now suddenly dropped below 1.10 making it a bad bet in my opinion. So I think that's why All Quiet On The Western Front odds went up so much. 

So, I finally saw the Whale and while Brendan Fraser did a very good job indeed (I would also say that its only part of the movie that was really good), I still prefer Colin Farrell performance.

[Betwrong]

It appears the effect of All Quiet's victory in Bafta might be starting to disappear hehe. The odds for the movie is presently sitting on 10.00 from where I have placed my bet in coinplay.com on 7.42.

If on March 7 there are no more changes on the odds, I will accept reality and accept that Everything, Everywhere All At Once will be the winner for the best picture.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2434063-academy-awards-2023/159565631-academy-awards-2023-best-picture-winner

You are most likely right, my friend. Everything Everywhere All at Once is an amazing film, and if it gets the Oscar for the Best Picture, it will be well deserved. I'm not betting on it now because of the odds:



but I did bet on it in December, long before the Academy Award nominees were announced:



and the odds were 7.35 for this movie.

I also bet on Michelle Yeoh winning the Best Actress



with much better odds than today. My bets were very small, but it's never about the money for me, and so I will be very happy if it turns out I was right.

[bbc.reporter]

@Betwrong. Why are you not sharing this? We also like to win some cryptocoins like you hehehehe. From the odds you are showing everyone, did you place your bet before this thread was created? The odds for Everything Everywhere was 2.50 in coinplay.com and it was 3.50 in sportsbet.io when I created this thread.

I reckon the last chance of All Quiet is on March 7. If odds do not reduce to 5.00, I reckon Everything Everywhere is a certainty to win the award for the best movie and the Hollywood agenda is not antiwar hehe.

[Sithara007]

We are less than two weeks away from the announcement.

I agree with the statement from Rifakip. In Stake.com, the odds for Everything Everywhere All At Once are given at 1.09. It doesn't make any sense to bet on this film.

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.09
The Banshees of Inisherin: 13.00
Top Gun: Maverick: 19.00
The Fabelmans: 31.00
Tár: 51.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 10.00
Women Talking: 151.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 151.00

For best director, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are favorites at 1.08, while for best actor and actress, the favorites are Brendan Fraser (1.51) and Michelle Yeoh (1.79).

[bittraffic]

Best actor and actress:

Fraser, Brendan is the easiest bet to go with 1.49
Cate Blanchett for the Movie TAR seems not Michelle Yeoh anymore that's leading.  1.79
It's a 2hour movie with less than 80% review. I have not seen it but it's nominated. I read the synopsis and the story isn't quite unique, it's the drama that counts for being the best in acting the roles though.

[Betwrong]

@Betwrong. Why are you not sharing this? We also like to win some cryptocoins like you hehehehe.

It was a crime on my part, both against humankind and against myself, because I'd love to start posting in this thread earlier. Somehow I missed it.

From the odds you are showing everyone, did you place your bet before this thread was created? The odds for Everything Everywhere was 2.50 in coinplay.com and it was 3.50 in sportsbet.io when I created this thread.

I just asked a nice girl, Ariel, from Sportsbet.io support, , providing her with the bet id, and she told me the exact date:

I reckon the last chance of All Quiet is on March 7. If odds do not reduce to 5.00, I reckon Everything Everywhere is a certainty to win the award for the best movie and the Hollywood agenda is not antiwar hehe.

Why do you think so? Why March 7?

I rewatched All Quiet yesterday, and loved the film even more. Regarding "antiwar", idk, it's more "anti aggression" to me, so,  although I adore Everything Everywhere, and will be very happy if it wins, I think  All Quiet has a good chance too, imo.

[bbc.reporter]

@Betwrong. The final voting for the Oscar awards this year are done on March 2 to March 7 and very much similar to the years before, there are some leaks in information that the oddmakers can collect and change the odds correspondingly.

In any case, the odds did not change. I am quite certain Everything Everywhere will win the Oscar for best picture. I speculate the Hollywood agenda this year is forget everything, enjoy your life heehehe.

[Sithara007]

@Betwrong. The final voting for the Oscar awards this year are done on March 2 to March 7 and very much similar to the years before, there are some leaks in information that the oddmakers can collect and change the odds correspondingly.

In any case, the odds did not change. I am quite certain Everything Everywhere will win the Oscar for best picture. I speculate the Hollywood agenda this year is forget everything, enjoy your life heehehe.

So the voting will end by today. And we will get to know the results by next week. I will be happy if Everything Everywhere All at Once wins the Oscar for best film. This is a film that collected more than $100 million from the global box-office. So at least this year, we will have an agreement between the general public and the Oscar jury (i.e the 8,000 or so members of the Academy) for the choice of best picture. Will be an added sweetener if Michelle Yeoh ends up with the Oscar for best actress. And also, there is a good chance that Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert may win the award for best director.

BTW odds haven't changed. Everything Everywhere All at Once remains as the overwhelming favorite at 1.10 in Stake.com. All Quiet on the Western Front is at 11.00, while Fablemans has odds of 31.00.

[Hispo]

Besides the betting on the possible winners of this year.
Is anyone else expecting to see if something wacky and crazy happens during the night of the awards this year? 

I have read around the internet there was a 50% boost on the viewers, and a huge increase on the interest for the Oscars, because of what happened with Will Smith a year ago.

Knowing how desperate some organizers can get for relevance and viewers, this year there could be some unexpected "accidents" as well. 

[Betwrong]

@Betwrong. The final voting for the Oscar awards this year are done on March 2 to March 7 and very much similar to the years before, there are some leaks in information that the oddmakers can collect and change the odds correspondingly.

In any case, the odds did not change. I am quite certain Everything Everywhere will win the Oscar for best picture. I speculate the Hollywood agenda this year is forget everything, enjoy your life heehehe.

I thought it's about constant fighting for understanding between generations and between people in general, but, well, maybe it's because I'm living in the midst of the war for the last year I see fighting even in movies. Now I think it's both, and you are right too.

~ Will be an added sweetener if Michelle Yeoh ends up with the Oscar for best actress. And also, there is a good chance that Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert may win the award for best director.

BTW odds haven't changed. Everything Everywhere All at Once remains as the overwhelming favorite at 1.10 in Stake.com. All Quiet on the Western Front is at 11.00, while Fablemans has odds of 31.00.

Cate Blanchett has some good chances to win the prize, but I'm rooting for Michelle Yeoh. To me she played like dozens of roles in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and played all of them great.

[Rikafip]

Knowing how desperate some organizers can get for relevance and viewers, this year there could be some unexpected "accidents" as well. 

I don't think that incident with Will Smith and Chris Rock was planned, so I don't expect anything like that happening this year neither. Well, at least not organized by Academy but I doubt any actor would want to follow Smith's steps considering all the consequences (10 years ban from Oscars, movies delayed) that seriously affected his career.