So you believe that there is no more ATH for this year.. and even extending into next year, the first or second quarter of 2026?
Unless we spend at least a week below $95k, I still think that we are in a bull market, so the odds are at least slightly more than 50% (such as 51%) that the ATH is not yet in.. whether we are referring to this calendar year or extending into the 1st and/or second quarter of 2026.
I can't be too sure if it will be first or second quarter of next year but what I know is that it will not happen for a new ATH to show up in the remaining part of this year, not in November or December next month.
You don't know that we won't reach another ATH this year. You are just guessing or more accurately assigning odds of certainty to something that does not have certain odds.
You're correct, I'm not sure but there's a positive possiblity of that to happen, we speculate every day and hope it happens the way we say it not because tomorrow we'll say we saw it coming no, but that's how we think it will happen, let's wait qnd see if there will be a new ATH in this year.
Hopefully, on a personal level you are prepared for either direction, and from my seeing your historical posts on the topic of bitcoin's price actions, it seems to me that you tend to error on the side of not sufficiently/adequately preparing for up.. . including that you give a lot of thoughts to down that might not end up happening... which causes me to speculate that you are likely ongoingly failing/refusing to adequately/sufficiently prepare for up... remember your fears of further down when we were around $50k (around August/September 2024).. and surely now it is appearing that those times would have had been great to be aggressively accumulating bitcoin rather than overly focusing on downs that ended up not happening.
This year has not ended yet.. and you seem to be referring to the last few weeks and not even the last part of the year. We had an ATH of $126,272 on October 6th, which was just one month ago.. so you were probably not unhappy at that time, even though the price did not last or go up further from that point (at least not so far).
Honestly I was to see it at $126k but you made it look as if what I'm saying won't happen, it can and I just hope it happens that there won't be a new or should I say another ath till next year.
I was just going by the words that you used.
What good do feelings do? Hopefully you are not betting on such feelings, as you did last year in august/september when you felt that the BTC price was going to go down from $50k and it ended up going up, instead... so last year, you did not adequately prepare yourself financially and/or psychologically for the up that ended up happening.
That's why I can tell you again that this isn't something we have to say we are sure of, these are something more than feelings,
I would think that many guys invest in bitcoin based on logic, planning and follow through with regular, consistent, persistent, ongoing and perhaps even aggressive buying rather than merely based on their feelings about bitcoin or about what others may or may not be feeling.. It has tended to be good for guys to be focused on ongoing buying of bitcoin.. especially for newer folks and not get overly distracted based on BTC price dynamics, especially the first 1-2 cycles in bitcoin.. but yeah of course, not everyone is going to approach bitcoin in similar way or even ending up profiting from bitcoin based on their choices to ongoingly get distracted by price dynamics that might be difficult to figure out any explanations for them.
ok let's say I failed but it doesn't mean I should say how it is, you on the other hand haven't been completely outstanding in saying something that will happen and how you think it will occur even if you have been in this business more than many of us and I'd like you to say something base on your calculations and how the market movement is, tell us something you think will happen.
Each person has to figure out their own bitcoin strategy. You can read through my historical posts if you like. I have no obligation to explain to you what I think my or may not happen, even though I frequently suggest that an overwhelming majority of folks fail/refuse to sufficient and/or adequately accumulate coins until they get to a status in which they have enough or more than enough bitcoin.
Furthermore whatever you believe bitcoin is going to do or not do is only
one of the 9 factors that each person should be figuring out for himself so that he can individualize and tailorize his bitcoin approach to his own circumstances.
We don't know if 2026 will be better than 2025 or not. We have to see and fund out and hopefully prepare ourselves financially and psychologically for a variety of scenarios that could end up playing out... even though ultimately ONLY one of the scenarios will end up playing out, but we won't know which scenario in advance.
Preparing for what's next year's market movement is something we have to keep at the back of our mind, it could be that we'll have more green than red in 2026 no one knows how it will turn out and is best to always stay on the positive side when planning but it does not mean that we should forget about the bad days that may occur.
I think that it tends to be more important to think about whether you have enough coins or not rather than getting worked up about what the BTC price may or may not do... and surely, since you have been registered on the forum since the end of 2022, you have had some great opportunities to accumulate coins, yet you likely have been ongoingly thinking about the price rather than building up your bitcoin holdings.
Surely whatever you have done so far up until now would be part of the factor to consider how to proceed, and again price is ONLY one of the 9 factors that you need to figure out for yourself.
Another thing is that no one knows the future, so he can ONLY assign probabilities to a variety of scenarios at best, yet it is likely that his actions would be an attempt to account for a variety of scenarios that could end up playing out.. and sure, he could have some of his actions be planned based on the outcome of events in the future.. and probably how many bitcoin he had already accumulated in the past 3 years would be one of the factors that might affect how he might approach the upcoming year.
On a personal level, I have a hard time imagining anyone who started merely 3 years getting to a status of having enough or more than enough coins, unless he front loaded his investment fairly aggressively, and based on your previous posts, it seems to me that you have been busy worrying about BTC prices going down, which likely has hampered your own accumulation of bitcoin over the past 3 years since the BTC price has largely gone up in the last 3 years, even if there were some times along the way that the BTC price had short term corrections and/or consolidations, otherwise it has been pretty much UPpity.. .around 6x-ish.. been a pretty good 3 years for anyone who attempted to front load his bitcoin investment.
It could be.. but it might not be. Historically the bitcoin bull markets did not continue into the next year, yet the mere fact that they did not carry into the next year does not mean that it won't happen this time around.
Everything is possible when it has to do with Bitcoin or the crypto space,
Who cares about crypto? shitcoins? Not me.
And sure, there are a variety of outcomes that are possible with bitcoin and bitcoin tends to be quite volatile, yet I would suggest that the range of possibilities is not so broad as to be "anything," since some outcomes are more likely than other outcomes, yet each person who is still accumulating bitcoin likely has to tailor his own strategy, which I would imagine should be ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying, yet surely if you don't already have a history of doing that in the past 3 years, you have to figure out what you are going to do based on what you have already been doing and figure out if you might need to adjust what you are doing so that you have some kind of a plan, especially since you have already been in the space for 3 years, I would think that you would have had some plans that you have been executing in the past 3 years and sure from time to time, there are needs to tweak and adjust the plans that you have had already been following, and hopefully you are doing your tweakening and adjusting based on informed learning rather than either emotions, guessing and/or gambling.
i personally consider bitcoin to be an investment not a thing to trade and/or gamble, but yeah, you might have other ideas that might have had screwed you up and contributed to the ongoing appearance of your seemingly emotionally-laden posts.
it will happen so we should say much about it because we know how it will all end after much speculations.
People do not tend to know the future, even though after time passes, then people can see what ended up happening. With bitcoin it seems that there are ongoing opportunities to profit and historically bitcoin has been one of the best, if not the best of investments available for everyone and anyone with discretionary income, yet the ways to profit from bitcoin is by actively buying it with such discretionary income and not recking yourself along the way.. so then to invest as aggressively as possible without overdoing it.
If you over do it then it is your fault, since each person is responsible to figure out the difference between being sufficiently aggressive and reasonable and not overdoing it.. which would involve both investing into bitcoin and also making sure that your cashflow management systems are in good shape and even in a strong condition so that you can be aggressive and to have protections in cases that you might end up making some calculation mistakes along the way.
No one can tell you how aggressive you can be without overdoing it. You have to figure out those boundaries yourself and hopefully not over do it and not under do it.
I think the market is confused. Many people are expecting one last dance in this cycle, but we're in a downtrend. If there's a close below 100k, we could drop much further due to cascading sell orders. That's why the 100k level is so important. We got through the first shock lightly. The second one may be tougher.
I doubt that the market is confused, since "it is what it is," and it is problematic to buy into ONLY one scenario and not to be simultaneously financially and/or psychologically prepared for a variety of possible scenarios, including scenarios that you did not expect to happen.
Sure, EFS, you have been registered on this forum for around 7 months longer than me, so you have been around the block a few times, so hopefully you have learned that bitcoin does not tend to do what we expect (even if we can look back and see patterns), and also if we have seen how there has been growth in bitcoin over the years, the players have gotten larger and larger and larger, which is not going to necessarily bring certainty to bitcoins short, medium or long term movements, even if there might be expectations that the BTC price has more UP within it for this particular cycle... or perhaps an extension of the cycle to the extent that the UPpity might not yet be over - and buying into "one more" is just setting yourself up for failure if you are thinking that you can trade or play the BIG waves of bitcoin's anticipated price moves, which we may or may not have more UP left for this cycle.
Or course, we should recognize/appreciate that Bitcoin is not on any schedule, even if we can identify past patterns that have played out.. it may or may not end up conforming to such historical patterns..
Personally, I think that we are still in a bull cycle, and the bull cycle has not been broken, yet the fact that it has not been broken does not mean that I am correct, since it could end up breaking.. yet I think that it is too early to be calling a bear market when we just had our latest ATH on October 6th.. only a month ago.
Of course, I will note that historically in 2014, 2018 and 2022, each time I was declaring that the bull market was not yet over, until like 6-9 months after the top was already in, when i finally conceded that bull run was over for each of those previous cycles.. so it is not like I have any history of being correct when it comes to calling the end of the bull cycle... so historically, I have tended to be one of the last ones to concede that the bull market was no longer in play.. .hahahaha for what it's worth?
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