2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Hispo]

Something interesting came up. While Haley didn't have a particularly good run in the primaries, it seems as though more of her supporters (who are registered republicans) will be interested to vote for Biden other than Trump.
If we conclude that these supporters would get away from the party line and vote for a democratic candidate over Trump, then if Biden is alive by then (lol) it kinda shows that people might be underestimating his chances to win.

I get that there are many people very passionate about Trump but even among Republican circles he's been very divisive. Quite a few people like Mike Pence too, or any of the other candidates that appeared in the primaries, and we saw that they had quite a few select words for Trump. So it'll be interesting to see if these displeased voters would be enough to sway the vote towards Biden.

Lets wait and see if that really happens. Both Trump and Biden are doing efforts to gain some of Haley supporters but Haley always mentioned that she will not support Trump so it could have an outcome on the elections. Still a long way to go and a lot can still happen.

I am not a political expert, but I have gotten the impression those people who chose to vote for Nikki instead Trump are more likely to stay at their homes rather than voting for Joe Biden. In the end, both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were specially tough when they talked about the necessity of defeating Joe Biden this year in the presidential elections. It sounds rather difficult to me some of those voters will abandon the ideas of Defeating Joe Biden and go out to vote for him.
They could also end up voting in favor of some third party candidate instead of the usually Republican/Democrat political duopoly, though, but it is also unlikely.  If there is anything these lastest elections have shown to us, is how we are not supposed to trust on polls and predictions of the results, instead the most healthy thing to do is to wait for the results to come by their own.
Though, since we all are talking about betting on these elections, it is rather difficult not to draw conclusions from news and analysis like that one, one must resist the temptation however, for the sake of one's wager.

[STT]

Its impossible to count votes like that, the system is electoral college and not purely numbers like that.   This is the giant mess Press got wrong in 2016 in ignoring the complexities of the system and the division of votes in each region.   Its enough votes purely in a theoretical way but it its unlikely to work in any perfect case scenario to alter results just like that.   I would also argue alot of voters just stay away when they dont have their ideal candidate, think of all the people who wanted Bernie Sanders in a unique way quite a few wont find any reason to vote elsewhere just because a party orders them to.

[alani123]

Its impossible to count votes like that, the system is not purely numbers like that.  Its enough in theory but it its unlikely to work in any perfect case scenario to alter results just like that.   I would also argue alot of voters just stay away when they dont have their ideal candidate, think of all the people who wanted Bernie Sanders in a unique way quite a few wont find any reason to vote elsewhere just because a party orders them to.

It's true that the electoral system in the United States is such that doesn't mean someone with the absolute majority. Even Trump was elected in 2016 without a majority vote over Hillary Clinton who had more votes, but Donald Trump still won based on the electoral college system.

I think though Trump might have gotten a bit too comfortable because he didn't target the most important constituents after his first win. Especially he didn't do it as much as he should have to win again. Overall probably now though, Biden has disappointed too many people too. He didn't deliver on student loans, he didn't deliver on ending wars, he didn't deliver on better living standards for the working class... Nothing for the working man... Some people might end up voting for Trump out of spite.

[el kaka22]

Talking about the economic situation under both candidates makes no sense not because it favours one or the other but because it is bad in both of them. We have seen trump not put a stop to covid early on because he knew that his voters didn't want to be locked down and didn't want to wear masks and didn't want to get vaccinated, if he forced people to do that there would be a lot less dead people and yet he would lose and in the end he still lost and he still didn't do anything about it.

This is just the economical part and not the health part because he didn't do anything and that caused a lot of trouble economically for companies. Same goes for Biden in technical term, he didn't lowered the rates and right now nobody wants to grow, and just fine with interest earning.

[Hispo]

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This is just the economical part and not the health part because he didn't do anything and that caused a lot of trouble economically for companies. Same goes for Biden in technical term, he didn't lowered the rates and right now nobody wants to grow, and just fine with interest earning.

Really, because the last time I checked. I swear I saw some news about the interest rates not interesting or actually going a little bit down, in the case of the United States at least.
To me, it would make sense the federal reserve under the presidency of Biden started to stabilize the interest rates, because of how inflation has deaccelerated lately. People are getting their money out their saving accounts and out the Treasury bonds, and pushing it all into stocks and other kinds of assets, like gold and cryptocurrency.
We could argue Biden administration has not been the greatest when comes to economics, but it is far from being the worst or even a bad one. In my opinion, the economical metrics do not lie.

[alani123]

When it comes to economics maybe the Biden administration can argue that they averted a recession with their tactics and that indeed holds some merit, but the issue is the big picture here.
Corporations and banks being bailed out comes at the expense of someone, and that someone is the average worker.

Billions in corporate bailouts, billions in war funding abroad and yet not much if anything on promises about healthcare and student loans. That's not to say that Trump would have been better, but in that sense more and more people will feel disenfranchised from voting for Biden again after he failed them on some of his most basic promises. Did anyone forget how the entire Democratic party rallied behind him to oust the grassroots support Bernie was getting? Well these people feel wronged too. And it's going to be hard for Biden to make more promises if he failed to deliver these things in a 4 year term already.

[Hispo]

Something interesting to noticed by anyone willing to bet on this election cycle in the United States. Despite of Nikki Haley being out of the presidential race, still she managed to get up to 150k votes for her in the state of Florida.
Now, there are different interpretations of the meaning of hundreds of thousands of people who were willing to vote for someone they knew did not have a chance to win the primaries. The most direct and easiest interpretation is how an voters from Florida (those who voted for Haley), are not longer willing to give another chance to Donald Trump, even though they all are Republican.

If we followed these hints, perhaps indeed Biden have a chance to defeat Trump this year, regardless of the flaws and problems Biden seem to transmit towards the center right and far right leaning public of the country. I am still yet undecided on where to put my money on this one...

[alani123]

Ok there's something very interesting happening here:


When put in competition head to head vs Trump, Biden is shown to have a lead in polls.
However, when put in polls as Biden vs. Trump. vs. R. F. Kennedy Jr., Trump has a notable lead against Biden!

Some republican mega donors are kinda unhinged in their support for R. F. Kennedy, but this is also making the race more interesting.
First of all, will Biden manage to counter the notions many people are developing right now to consider supporting Kennedy? He has months to prepare a strategy, but I take it things are gonna be tough for the Biden team.

Look for instance at how much the funding has been for an independent candidate. Even Kennedy himself thought the super-bowl ad for his campaign ran by a super PAC might have been a bit too much...


However now, thanks to the funding, there's an "army" of canvassers running around America and the Kennedy campaign's projection is that they will have ballot spots in 50 states! So the polls do actually make sense! Biden is very much threatened and this is not a drill.

Images via this vid

[alegotardo]

Ok there's something very interesting happening here:
~snip image~

When put in competition head to head vs Trump, Biden is shown to have a lead in polls.
However, when put in polls as Biden vs. Trump. vs. R. F. Kennedy Jr., Trump has a notable lead against Biden!

Yeah!!!

Even though an independent candidate has little chance of winning the election, he will certainly still greatly influence the outcome of this election... just look at the past and we will see that in the political history of the USA, there have already been some episodes where this happened.

The most recent one I remember was in 1992, when Ross Perot played a similar role in Bill Clinton's victory over George Bush. The third-way candidate didn't win a single delegate, but he got almost 19% of the votes, most of which were votes that would go to Bush.

Likewise, polls currently indicate that when Kennedy entered the race, Trump's lead rose to 5 points over Biden and the Republican leads in all 7 of the most disputed states. In other words, with Kennedy in play, Trump's chances of victory increase significantly.

[alani123]

Yup, it's certain at this point that Kennedy himself and the PACs supporting him alike are 100% counting on taking votes away from Democrats.
It's a very odd subject though because Kenndy's agenda sounds a lot like a republican's play book being read outloud. The anti-vaccine narrative, calling people in Washington corrupt, rampant Zionism... So it's not like this sounds much of a valid alternative to the current options. However Republicans seem much more organized in their Vote so surely those paying for the huge ads for Kennedy must have done their research.

This is also showcased by the fact that Biden keeps getting heckled so much at his events, they've now started to outright deny entry to Muslim women wearing Head coverings in fear they might speak aloud in front of his speech in support of Palestine.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/31/biden-campaign-event-islamophobia-palestine-protest

Crazy for a party that is supposedly against racism. 

[Hispo]

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Until not long ago, I would have assumed Kennedy would be a spoiler, but for the Trump campaign instead of the Biden campaign. Because many of the ideas Kennedy has align very well with the ideas of many people within the MAGA spectrum have: vaccination skepticism, passive racism (he literally told black people in a rally/event that racism against them would never end and that ks something they need to keep in mind). He even said one that the COVID was less aggressive when infecting Jewish and Black people and more dangerous when it infected white people. That is the kind of stuff you would only expect a MAGA-favourable candidate to say out loud.
Though, I get he was at first trying to pocket the democrat party nomination and then he saw the advantages of going third party/independent. This is a typical move some politicians do in critical presidential elections when it is all expected to be very close race between two candidates. He is aware he does not stand a chance against the establishment, but he knows the democrat party or the Republican party are so desperate for some points of advantage against each other, so he could profit off it and sell his candidacy to the highest bidder.

When a politician like him is not in the game for power, he is in the game for money.
He won't get power, but still can get money, that is his plan.

[STT]

Kennedy and Biden align very well apparently, he only disagrees on the anti vax stance and otherwise is definitely a democrat in policy.   I was surprised by that too because I thought he was the right wing choice with the Democrat party if that makes any sense but his actual political record reflects not a great break from Biden policies is the review I read hence it just comes down to speeches and talks.   Personal preference, sometimes people run as candidates to drum up support and gain a position within the administration, theres all levels of politics besides just being elected to the top job.

I understand why some prefer Kennedy but I dont take that as a serious option to consider, it might have been with more support but theres no appearance of that at this point.

[Obari]

I think I’m not supposed to get into this since I’m not a citizen over there but the truth is, this has been one of the political gambling that I’m really interested in and I’ve been wondering the possibility of a siting president  been dethroned easily except his tired of the office which I’m sure Biden isn’t tired and still wants to retain his position.

I’m really looking forward to seeing the outcome of the next election as to who wins the medal but I’m pretty sure in my country,  it is very difficult for a sitting president to be overthrown by an opposition party except in some rare cases.

[Hispo]

I think I’m not supposed to get into this since I’m not a citizen over there but the truth is, this has been one of the political gambling that I’m really interested in and I’ve been wondering the possibility of a siting president  been dethroned easily except his tired of the office which I’m sure Biden isn’t tired and still wants to retain his position.

I’m really looking forward to seeing the outcome of the next election as to who wins the medal but I’m pretty sure in my country,  it is very difficult for a sitting president to be overthrown by an opposition party except in some rare cases.

Don't feel coy over the fact you are not a citizen of the United States and still you feel like taking part and betting in this incoming presidential election there. Actually, I would dare to say an important percentage of the betting volume of these political markets are not even from people who live there. 
Though, you need to be aware before betting on American polítics you need to have a minimum level of information and ideas of the current political weather there, otherwise your bets wont be as informed as you think. I would recommend you to seek for some YouTube channels held by political commentators who happen not to be extremely biased to one side or the other.

By the way, we are talking about the USA, one of the countries which are considered to be the beacon of democracy and justice (depending whom you ask), obviously we cannot compare our republics to USA in this historical context, specially if there are undemocratic regimes ruling out society.

Regardless of what you decide, feel free to share your bets with us here. 😆😄

[adultcrypto]

Something interesting came up. While Haley didn't have a particularly good run in the primaries, it seems as though more of her supporters (who are registered republicans) will be interested to vote for Biden other than Trump.
If we conclude that these supporters would get away from the party line and vote for a democratic candidate over Trump, then if Biden is alive by then (lol) it kinda shows that people might be underestimating his chances to win.

I get that there are many people very passionate about Trump but even among Republican circles he's been very divisive. Quite a few people like Mike Pence too, or any of the other candidates that appeared in the primaries, and we saw that they had quite a few select words for Trump. So it'll be interesting to see if these displeased voters would be enough to sway the vote towards Biden.

Lets wait and see if that really happens. Both Trump and Biden are doing efforts to gain some of Haley supporters but Haley always mentioned that she will not support Trump so it could have an outcome on the elections. Still a long way to go and a lot can still happen.

I am not a political expert, but I have gotten the impression those people who chose to vote for Nikki instead Trump are more likely to stay at their homes rather than voting for Joe Biden. In the end, both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were specially tough when they talked about the necessity of defeating Joe Biden this year in the presidential elections. It sounds rather difficult to me some of those voters will abandon the ideas of Defeating Joe Biden and go out to vote for him.
They could also end up voting in favor of some third party candidate instead of the usually Republican/Democrat political duopoly, though, but it is also unlikely.  If there is anything these lastest elections have shown to us, is how we are not supposed to trust on polls and predictions of the results, instead the most healthy thing to do is to wait for the results to come by their own.
Though, since we all are talking about betting on these elections, it is rather difficult not to draw conclusions from news and analysis like that one, one must resist the temptation however, for the sake of one's wager.

I like your line of thoughts and I agree with you. In primary elections all over the world, there is always internal politicking that leaves seemingly hatred among party members but such hatred is not usually enough to make party faithful jump ship. What I mean is that the hatred for a fellow party man over primary elections is not usually strong enough to make someone go for candidates of another party. So, if Joe Biden or anyone is banking on the idea that supporters of Nikky will rather vote for Joe Biden than Trump, they will be frustrated at how things will turn after the primaries. When the main campaign starts after the primaries, you will see what makes them Republican and why they will ensure that Republican wins. I am not saying that Trump will win, I am just giving my understanding of how politics works.

[piebeyb]

If we look at the betting odds, Trump is very favored but I am not an American and may not know the development of the political atmosphere there, but some people who know about the political situation there say my online friend gave me advice to bet on Trump, but I said no I'm sure of that because whatever is the favorite doesn't necessarily mean winning and being superior, so I prefer not to bet on something that I don't know for sure how the political situation will develop there, if reading more news will drain my time only for odds below 2.00x.

I would probably rather gamble on sports betting than bet on this presidential election, because the odds are also not great, although I expect Trump to win and become America's next president, I would rather see him become president than Biden, who I think is already too old to lead America as president and besides, it's time for him to focus on enjoying his old age rather than being on the political stage again, I'm waiting for the results to see who wins and not get involved in bets like this. 

[Hispo]

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I like your line of thoughts and I agree with you. In primary elections all over the world, there is always internal politicking that leaves seemingly hatred among party members but such hatred is not usually enough to make party faithful jump ship. What I mean is that the hatred for a fellow party man over primary elections is not usually strong enough to make someone go for candidates of another party. So, if Joe Biden or anyone is banking on the idea that supporters of Nikky will rather vote for Joe Biden than Trump, they will be frustrated at how things will turn after the primaries. When the main campaign starts after the primaries, you will see what makes them Republican and why they will ensure that Republican wins. I am not saying that Trump will win, I am just giving my understanding of how politics works.

It is not so much about hatred between people of the same party, but rather the sentiment many within the Republican party about how Trump has made politics to decay into topics which do not seems to be relevant anymore as others, but that depends whom you ask in the end of the day.
I have lately seen some democrat strategists suggesting the next move Biden will try to pull off will be to try to convince as many Nikki Haley voters as possible not to Vote for Trump and give him a chance instead. It will be difficult, obviously.
Now with the declaration of Transgender visibility day yesterday, it seems the right and the moderate right have found more fuel to continue to attack Biden in social media and also outside of it, specially because of the coincidence of the date with the day of Easter.
Still, not losing any sleep over it, the odds won't move because of it, Trump has already desensitized many of us (sadly), if this was a different time and political context, he would have been ousted of the Republican Party for only a fraction of what he has done and be declared guilty of. 

Expecting to see if he gets imprisoned and how that will change the odds before the elections, It may be the perfect time for anyone here who has not yet places their bets to get in. 

[STT]

Other way round the odds on this bet is nicer then trying to guess alot of sports games.   Depends on how well you know your sports I guess but I often find that tricky with last minute alterations to the factors and so to the result.

The reason I would make this bet especially is two obvious key reasons, the event is the entire year and you cannot escape how much publicity and discussion this event will receive.  You will be aware of the dynamics to a small or larger extent quite easily.   Then 2nd point even more true is massive bias in the betting population, people bet their favorites even if its not the best bet and this creates value.

You have massive potential here for a big bet and one with obvious bias opening up great value, who would walk away from this unless you are really sick of politics then I dont really blame you of course

[cabron]

If we look at the betting odds, Trump is very favored but I am not an American and may not know the development of the political atmosphere there, but some people who know about the political situation there say my online friend gave me advice to bet on Trump, but I said no I'm sure of that because whatever is the favorite doesn't necessarily mean winning and being superior, so I prefer not to bet on something that I don't know for sure how the political situation will develop there, if reading more news will drain my time only for odds below 2.00x.

I would probably rather gamble on sports betting than bet on this presidential election, because the odds are also not great, although I expect Trump to win and become America's next president, I would rather see him become president than Biden, who I think is already too old to lead America as president and besides, it's time for him to focus on enjoying his old age rather than being on the political stage again, I'm waiting for the results to see who wins and not get involved in bets like this. 

Same thing that my cousins are saying in the US, they are voting for Trump. But what is to be considered actually is that this election is going to be the wildest in the US. This is the 2nd round of what happened in the first election battle between Biden and Trump.

If the administration today is making the life of Trump a living hell, it's going to be chaos if Trump wins. Regardless of who will win actually, Trump supporters won't also accept Biden for another term.

The bookmakers might want to just postpone your win until the chaos settles if it ever will settle like any of them take an auth.

[boyptc]

When Trump was the POTUS, many hates him. Now that Biden is spreading the money of America in the entire world for startling wars instead of putting that money to their people, now, people hates him.

It is not surprising that people want someone like Trump back, of course not all as the americans don't have that much choice from the others that are on the list.

Anyway, as usual with politics, they're always tricky and always starts a lot of argument.