2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Oluwa-btc]

@luckmcfly you have made credible points to the elevation of Thrump against Biden which to me are very much true even though am not an American but thanks to books I read. IMO, a key aspect that will sharply influence the choice of the American citizens looking at the position of the United States of America in the world politics, with what is going on in the different parts of the world, the Ukraine-Russia war and the recent Isreal-Iran conflict which America has shown some weakness in intervening audaciously all through this period of Biden's administration unlike in Thrump's administration  and more other previous administrations. So it's unlikely that Biden might have a second chance in this election.

I feel like them man who supports and back Joe Biden are fauckin twats, because how do you support a recalcitrant and stiff-necked president who cares and put other countries before his nation, how? They'd say Trump is traitor and lies too much but I don't know the details. Honestly, I don't really care about them and their politics.

They preach and talk about democracy and shii but never supports it. Everyday I wonder who made them the police of this world because I don't like how they have handled matters especially if it doesn't benefits them.

Why would Joe Biden keep on funding Ukraine, Taiwan and also Isreal, when all these fund should be used to boost the falling economy? Why has he been so stubborn? The world needs peace amd not war. Like I said, I no longer care  or gives double fvcks, I wish them all the best with their various affairs. They was quick to call Putin a war criminal but hasn't done shit with the President of Isreal? Killing kids? It's laughable.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Let's discuss the likelihood of each candidate winning the election, events, as well as which platforms offer this market for crypto-enabled bets.

Over here in my country, alot of people are rooting for Trump to win, and to be honest, if actually I was or decided to bet on the USA presidential election, I think I will have to bet on Trump.
But then, another thing is, the odds on Trump winning doesn't look so attractive for me to want to bet on him, and also, several cases in court concerning Trump may as well trample his chances of becoming the next president of the United States of America, so, based on this, I likely may decide to bet on Biden rather.

Let me just be plain and be honest as well, I will be totally confused 😕 if I was to decide to bet on one of this candidates, it's really tough to decide or choose which one to bet on, as I personally believe that both Trump and Biden have good chances of winning, every other candidate on that list are possibly just catching cruz, the battle is between Trump and Biden.

[Porfirii]

-snip-

[Everyone else is a joke candidate and I don't understand why Stake doesn't just give them all 100:1 odds.]

I guess that this is because casinos have to win some money too, but in these cases it is a little bit too obvious that the odds are on their side

In occasions like this one many people will bet irrationally for their favorite candidates, even if they are not the only two ones who have real chances of winning, so why would they waste the opportunity?

[LUCKMCFLY]

I respect your opinion and I would certainly agree with you about the potential Trump has to positively impact the United States, if he was a normal politician and if he was running using mainstream ideas and a mainstream campaign for it to reach the white house again.
That is what I do not like about Trump, how he has negatively transformed the Republican party into an organization which does not look like anything from the previous days of the party, then they used to debate about taxation, fiscal politics, debt , then most of the politicians in the Republican party were aware Vladimir Putin was/is a dictator and autocrat. The Republican party does not seem to be as patriotic as used to be (I am not saying the Democrat party is much better though).

I would have preferred to Nikki Haley to win the nomination of the party or even Mike Pence, even though he almost spineless when comes to facing and criticizing Trump. He has only done so lately, because he is aware his political career is likely over after drooping out the race.

Yes, it is very true, although since Trump has now gotten more involved in politics, what I imagine is that now he wants to win over his party much more, in addition to pleasing his opponents, of course politics is like that, you have to do deals and things that are not very good just to receive support and then have to pay political favors, that is something that changes the face of everything, I just intuit it, I don't know if it really happens, I'm just speculating, what happens is that in the country in which one lives, politicians risk all this to have what they want most, and once they are in power, things are done to please those who helped them and so on. The president has more support within Congress and I believe that the people take a second or perhaps a third place.

Oh, I am sure Trump is aware on the political favors and the alliances which are necessary for him to climb onto power again.
For example, lately there is a lot of drama going on in the United States because of how it is expected Tik Tok will be banned from the USA soon, if their other company does not seem the social media to other company based in the country.

In previous years, Trump himself has been very critic on the way the social media is being handled from China and how it could represent a national threat, as it collects information of the American people and stores it in China. Recently, Trump has changed his heart and political position on TikTok being banned, and there are two main reasons for it: he recognizes the generation Z likes Tik tok and if Biden bans Tik tok, it will be beneficial for him. It was also uncovered there is a donor of Trump who seems to have a major stake on Tik tok, so he changed his opinion to please those who had keep his campaign running with donations.

That is what most of American politics is about, donators and big corporations manipulating law and the will of the people, who does not have billions in assets.

To which most politicians are not so different after all. Whether a Dem or Rep, they are all still part of the same group that has the same enemy.  Trump is a businessman though and he has to balance not upsetting his donors that's why it may be his idea to offer to buy Tiktok first or else ban it.

Whoever wins the election still has no real freedom to do things really because of the donors who have control over the politicians.

It is a fact that if Trump fails to win he will look for a Way to Silence tik tok, or something he should do, however he is a person who is always Looking for something to do to Be able to establish what he wants, or what he says, if Trump He comes out well free of all this that they are accusing him of and if he becomes president, I would like to imagine the persecution that I will see them do to the judges and all these types of things that bother him. , because he is practically one of the people who have been bothering him the most, many politicians will have to look for Another country to leave, because everything they have done to him it is impossible for him not to want to seek revenge, they are waking up a possible sleeping Lion, if it comes it comes to power , the first thing he will do is take revenge, without a Doubt I still see it from that Point of view.

[Hispo]

Last night I have learnt the State of Arizona has formally indicted important members of Donald Trump inner circle when he worked as President of the United States. Bit only that, it seems the State of Arizona has also chosen to indict around a dozen of people who posed as fake electors, in a scheme which was alledgely keep as a plan to overturn the presidential election of USA, back in 2020.
Trump himself seems to be listed in the indictment as an unindicted co-conspirator, do he won't be prosecuted for now. My guess is procesutors  plan to flip all alledged conspirators against Trump before indict him directly in the State of Arizona.

Regardless on this lastest development, it is very unlikely this will affect Trump odds and his popularity among the average Republican voter, it has been already proven they do not care about those indictments.
Though, we must keep in mind this is an state level criminal trial, which means Trump would not be able to pardon himself in the case of winning the president this year.

[Sithara007]

^^^It is quite clear that the only chance to prevent Trump from becoming the next President of the United States is to disqualify him from running for that post. Democrat establishment hopes that they can get someone like Nikki Haley or Lisa Murkowski as the Republican nominee, who will offer an easier competition to Joe Biden. Also, they can also hope that even if the GOP candidate wins the election, he/she will be less hawkish on issues such as immigration and support for Ukraine in Russo-Ukrainian war.

[Hispo]

^^^It is quite clear that the only chance to prevent Trump from becoming the next President of the United States is to disqualify him from running for that post. Democrat establishment hopes that they can get someone like Nikki Haley or Lisa Murkowski as the Republican nominee, who will offer an easier competition to Joe Biden. Also, they can also hope that even if the GOP candidate wins the election, he/she will be less hawkish on issues such as immigration and support for Ukraine in Russo-Ukrainian war.

Well. Then according to your expectations, Trump is going to inevitably win the presidential election this year. Since, if I recall correctly, the Supreme court of the USA has already ruled Trump cannot be disqualified from running in States which choose to exclude him because of his alledged participation in an insurrection some years ago.
I assume you are pretty much aware how indictments do not seem to affect his popularity among the voting base, so I agree it is likely any of his legal problems will be politically costly in the short term.
Actually, support for him continued to accumulated as he continued to be indicted both federally within state levels.

Also, I believe some candidate like Nikki Haley would still try to address the problem in the southern border of the USA, it is a policy of the Republican party and she is that of that party.
Unless you are a believer if the theory of the Uniparty.

[LUCKMCFLY]

^^^It is quite clear that the only chance to prevent Trump from becoming the next President of the United States is to disqualify him from running for that post. Democrat establishment hopes that they can get someone like Nikki Haley or Lisa Murkowski as the Republican nominee, who will offer an easier competition to Joe Biden. Also, they can also hope that even if the GOP candidate wins the election, he/she will be less hawkish on issues such as immigration and support for Ukraine in Russo-Ukrainian war.

Well. Then according to your expectations, Trump is going to inevitably win the presidential election this year. Since, if I recall correctly, the Supreme court of the USA has already ruled Trump cannot be disqualified from running in States which choose to exclude him because of his alledged participation in an insurrection some years ago.
I assume you are pretty much aware how indictments do not seem to affect his popularity among the voting base, so I agree it is likely any of his legal problems will be politically costly in the short term.
Actually, support for him continued to accumulated as he continued to be indicted both federally within state levels.

Also, I believe some candidate like Nikki Haley would still try to address the problem in the southern border of the USA, it is a policy of the Republican party and she is that of that party.
Unless you are a believer if the theory of the Uniparty.

It's quite interesting what this does to American politics, the fact that they want to see Trump in a bad light because these things can give him bad propaganda, but if this doesn't work for the opposing political party, why do they do it? ?because they fall into the same mistakes that politicians always make, a political contender should not fear what the other Candidate does, if he is Very sure of his political campaign he should not spend money, energy and so on, in that case it is what they What they should do is manage their campaigns well, without playing dirty or taking advantage of the fact that they exercise power. If Trump wins later, the first thing he will do is take revenge when he becomes president, then that will be a war between politicians and that is actually the Worst thing that the United States becomes politicized.

[alani123]

I am not fond of Republican political positions to be honest but even as an outsider I can see how desperate Democrats and Democrat aligned media have gotten.
Going after Trump because a woman that only could according to rumors become his vice president pick, is said to have euthanized a dog she once had? First of all, who the fuck cares? People go through a lot of grief when having to put down their dog, and now democrat aligned media use her grief in an attempt to portray Trump as cruel? Can't they see that being so desperate will backfire?

Secondly, the whole Trump prosecution thing seems to be backfiring also now that the supreme court seems to be aligning more with the presidential immunity scenario. I mean, if Democrats want actual change in this country they should put down a long term commitment to remove presidential immunity from prosecution. Of course they're not really gonna do that because it existing also serves their interests as a party serving big corporate interests. But they just try to apply the law only where it suits their interests, now even defying the supreme court.

[Hispo]

^^^It is quite clear that the only chance to prevent Trump from becoming the next President of the United States is to disqualify him from running for that post. Democrat establishment hopes that they can get someone like Nikki Haley or Lisa Murkowski as the Republican nominee, who will offer an easier competition to Joe Biden. Also, they can also hope that even if the GOP candidate wins the election, he/she will be less hawkish on issues such as immigration and support for Ukraine in Russo-Ukrainian war.

Well. Then according to your expectations, Trump is going to inevitably win the presidential election this year. Since, if I recall correctly, the Supreme court of the USA has already ruled Trump cannot be disqualified from running in States which choose to exclude him because of his alledged participation in an insurrection some years ago.
I assume you are pretty much aware how indictments do not seem to affect his popularity among the voting base, so I agree it is likely any of his legal problems will be politically costly in the short term.
Actually, support for him continued to accumulated as he continued to be indicted both federally within state levels.

Also, I believe some candidate like Nikki Haley would still try to address the problem in the southern border of the USA, it is a policy of the Republican party and she is that of that party.
Unless you are a believer if the theory of the Uniparty.

It's quite interesting what this does to American politics, the fact that they want to see Trump in a bad light because these things can give him bad propaganda, but if this doesn't work for the opposing political party, why do they do it? ?because they fall into the same mistakes that politicians always make, a political contender should not fear what the other Candidate does, if he is Very sure of his political campaign he should not spend money, energy and so on, in that case it is what they What they should do is manage their campaigns well, without playing dirty or taking advantage of the fact that they exercise power. If Trump wins later, the first thing he will do is take revenge when he becomes president, then that will be a war between politicians and that is actually the Worst thing that the United States becomes politicized.

The United States is already politized and very divided, and Trump from the beginning did not help to solve it. I agree with you, if he comes again in a position of power like the presidency of the United States, he is very likely to somehow abuse that power to take what he calls "retribution" against his political opponents and anyone he believes has wronged him in the past.
At least, that is what he has said in his rallies during this presidential cycle in the USA.
If we are going to talk about the management of campaigns and the way how candidates manage their speech and resources, then one cannot omit the way Trump continues to alledge a political prosecution against him, it has become an important component of his discourse. While Joe Biden has for now tried to avoid directly mention Trump, unless it is necessary.
My guess if Biden is trying to avoid feeding the theories about him being directly involved with the indictments Trump is facing.

I doubt there is much to happen this summer which could change the odds of either of them in the betting markets.

[Zlantann]

I am not fond of Republican political positions to be honest but even as an outsider I can see how desperate Democrats and Democrat aligned media have gotten.
Going after Trump because a woman that only could according to rumors become his vice president pick, is said to have euthanized a dog she once had? First of all, who the fuck cares? People go through a lot of grief when having to put down their dog, and now democrat aligned media use her grief in an attempt to portray Trump as cruel? Can't they see that being so desperate will backfire?

She didn't only kill her dog named Cricket but she also shot dead an unnamed goat because it had a bad smell and chases her kids around. It is normal for politicians to use their opponent's mistakes or stories to gain some political points by showing their weakness, cruelty, or corrupt nature.

But in the case of Kristi Noem, she is been painted as a cruel woman who lacks sympathy and shouldn't be part of Donald Trump's team. As an animal lover, the excuse she gave for killing the dog, Cricket was okay since it had become violent and dangerous to her and her family. But the reason for killing the goat is just silly because she was aware that uncastrated goats usually have a strong offensive odour. Brutally killing the goat because of its natural smell is inhuman.

These stories portrayed her as a strong-hearted personality because I don't think I will have the guts to shoot and kill my domestic animal. They are part of the family, so I might not have the willpower to kill them. I might decide to donate them to some animal charity or assign someone else to kill them. With Trump having a hardman personality,  Kristi Noem will not be a good running mate because both of them will make policies without considering the people. I won't vote for two candidates that has showed some lack of emotion or empathy, at least one of them should be emotional.

Secondly, the whole Trump prosecution thing seems to be backfiring also now that the supreme court seems to be aligning more with the presidential immunity scenario. I mean, if Democrats want actual change in this country they should put down a long term commitment to remove presidential immunity from prosecution. Of course they're not really gonna do that because it existing also serves their interests as a party serving big corporate interests. But they just try to apply the law only where it suits their interests, now even defying the supreme court.

What goes around also comes around. If democrats are misusing the power of incumbency to persecute and harass Donald Trump, they should also not forget that one day the Republicans will take power. The same laws they have been enacted to make their opponents suffer will also be used against them.

[FanEagle]

I am not fond of Republican political positions to be honest but even as an outsider I can see how desperate Democrats and Democrat aligned media have gotten.
Going after Trump because a woman that only could according to rumors become his vice president pick, is said to have euthanized a dog she once had? First of all, who the fuck cares? People go through a lot of grief when having to put down their dog, and now democrat aligned media use her grief in an attempt to portray Trump as cruel? Can't they see that being so desperate will backfire?

Secondly, the whole Trump prosecution thing seems to be backfiring also now that the supreme court seems to be aligning more with the presidential immunity scenario. I mean, if Democrats want actual change in this country they should put down a long term commitment to remove presidential immunity from prosecution. Of course they're not really gonna do that because it existing also serves their interests as a party serving big corporate interests. But they just try to apply the law only where it suits their interests, now even defying the supreme court.

I feel like it is basically showing the collective situation and not that single situation. I mean Trump has a lot of things that you can hate about him, but you can't just keep talking about the same thing all the time, you can't talk about "I just grab them by..." in 2024, that would be weird, that was then and people talked about it and we do hate him for him, but then this happens and you talk about this for a week or two, and then something else comes up and you hate him for that.

The point is that there is always something disgusting about him and you hate him, and then you move on to the new thing that you hate him for. In some cases (like for you this one) it is not a big deal, you can't have a new disgusting thing per week, so sometimes it is not a big deal to some people.

[Poker Player]

Image source via Stake

Okay, so according to the pic the most likely candidate to win is Trump, followed by Biden, and the others are basically throwing money away. If I had to bet I would bet on Trump, because I understand that Biden is worn out from his presidency and doesn't seem cognitively very stable. Although who knows, as I am more of a supporter of positions that defend the free market so maybe I am a little biased but that the lowest odds are paid if Trump wins I understand that I am pretty well on track.

[joeperry]

I'm not really into politics but it when was the last election in the US? If I can remember it wasn't that long right or I'm not just really into it that's why I didn't know when was the last time. The last time I remember was there's a Hillary Clinton, I think that was 2015 or 2016? Anyway it seems the odds are in favor with Trump, do you think he'll win the next election? Why do odds is in favor in him?

[alani123]

She didn't only kill her dog named Cricket but she also shot dead an unnamed goat because it had a bad smell and chases her kids around. It is normal for politicians to use their opponent's mistakes or stories to gain some political points by showing their weakness, cruelty, or corrupt nature.

But in the case of Kristi Noem, she is been painted as a cruel woman who lacks sympathy and shouldn't be part of Donald Trump's team. As an animal lover, the excuse she gave for killing the dog, Cricket was okay since it had become violent and dangerous to her and her family. But the reason for killing the goat is just silly because she was aware that uncastrated goats usually have a strong offensive odour. Brutally killing the goat because of its natural smell is inhuman.

It's so interesting what the media will do to portray someone as cruel. I agree that Kristi Noem writing about these things in her own book is stupid of her especially if she's a politician with high ambitions but it's funny that every article about her is about her dog now. A dog that according to her there were good reasons to euthanize. Killing a goat for being smelly though? oh wow... I wonder why the media didn't pick up on that one though? perhaps it would have been too hypocritical to bother about a goat when American will perfectly fine eat a goat and the Biden admin hasn't cared to do anything about animal wellbeing in general.

So yeah, such attacks are of course expected in the political arena. But I just wonder who they're expecting to convince in this manner. There's much better arguments to convince people to change their vote. One of them is economics. But with both candidates being bad for the working man they just resort to slurs and attacks.

[cabron]

She didn't only kill her dog named Cricket but she also shot dead an unnamed goat because it had a bad smell and chases her kids around. It is normal for politicians to use their opponent's mistakes or stories to gain some political points by showing their weakness, cruelty, or corrupt nature.

But in the case of Kristi Noem, she is been painted as a cruel woman who lacks sympathy and shouldn't be part of Donald Trump's team. As an animal lover, the excuse she gave for killing the dog, Cricket was okay since it had become violent and dangerous to her and her family. But the reason for killing the goat is just silly because she was aware that uncastrated goats usually have a strong offensive odour. Brutally killing the goat because of its natural smell is inhuman.

It's so interesting what the media will do to portray someone as cruel. I agree that Kristi Noem writing about these things in her own book is stupid of her especially if she's a politician with high ambitions but it's funny that every article about her is about her dog now. A dog that according to her there were good reasons to euthanize. Killing a goat for being smelly though? oh wow... I wonder why the media didn't pick up on that one though? perhaps it would have been too hypocritical to bother about a goat when American will perfectly fine eat a goat and the Biden admin hasn't cared to do anything about animal wellbeing in general.

So yeah, such attacks are of course expected in the political arena. But I just wonder who they're expecting to convince in this manner. There's much better arguments to convince people to change their vote. One of them is economics. But with both candidates being bad for the working man they just resort to slurs and attacks.

In the 3rd world country, character assassination is very common and they are not even true but as long as their president is sitting they can publish whatever they want. The media can ignore Kim Kardashian so long as she is on the side of the sitting party. But if the politician is on the other side, it will be a living hell where even a house fly that lands on her face will be magnified just to put it on the local front page news. That is how dirty the politics is.

I don't know why Trump is the only option because there are decent candidates actually. But then this thread is about winning the election bet though. Between Biden and Trump. It's Trump who has the possibility of winning based on odds. 1.70

[Hispo]

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To me it is quite remarkable how the odds for the Trump candidacy and winning over the presidency have changed in less than a year. There could be people who is already in profit just because of that behavior of the odds, though with this margin of odds it is very unlikely people will cash out before the night of the election comes upon us. We are talking about relatively small differences, after all.
This conversation actually reminds me some video I saw on polling and political predictions some time ago. It seems some people do not realize yet that, when comes to polls it is about who people want to win the presidency, while betting markets show the reality on who people *believe* who is going to win. (Regardless of their political preferences and hopes).

Either which measurement is more of value for us to try to guess on the winner is up to each one of us, I personally think betting markets can be a little more accurate than plain polls.

[Bravut]

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To me it is quite remarkable how the odds for the Trump candidacy and winning over the presidency have changed in less than a year. There could be people who is already in profit just because of that behavior of the odds, though with this margin of odds it is very unlikely people will cash out before the night of the election comes upon us. We are talking about relatively small differences, after all.
This conversation actually reminds me some video I saw on polling and political predictions some time ago. It seems some people do not realize yet that, when comes to polls it is about who people want to win the presidency, while betting markets show the reality on who people *believe* who is going to win. (Regardless of their political preferences and hopes).

Either which measurement is more of value for us to try to guess on the winner is up to each one of us, I personally think betting markets can be a little more accurate than plain polls.

Yeah. Betting market shows the anticipated winner, votes can be bought or change of mind but in betting people arrive sure an ready to put there money because they know that candidate will win. Just like am anticipating Trump to win, because he only can revive fallen America and bring back it high societal standards. Unless they gonna do Electoral Malpractice or use any flaws against him, if not Trump is surely gonna win.

[Hispo]

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To me it is quite remarkable how the odds for the Trump candidacy and winning over the presidency have changed in less than a year. There could be people who is already in profit just because of that behavior of the odds, though with this margin of odds it is very unlikely people will cash out before the night of the election comes upon us. We are talking about relatively small differences, after all.
This conversation actually reminds me some video I saw on polling and political predictions some time ago. It seems some people do not realize yet that, when comes to polls it is about who people want to win the presidency, while betting markets show the reality on who people *believe* who is going to win. (Regardless of their political preferences and hopes).

Either which measurement is more of value for us to try to guess on the winner is up to each one of us, I personally think betting markets can be a little more accurate than plain polls.

Yeah. Betting market shows the anticipated winner, votes can be bought or change of mind but in betting people arrive sure an ready to put there money because they know that candidate will win. Just like am anticipating Trump to win, because he only can revive fallen America and bring back it high societal standards. Unless they gonna do Electoral Malpractice or use any flaws against him, if not Trump is surely gonna win.

The betting market is not always right though, otherwise it would be far more abused by people who seeks to make money out of it. What I am trying to say is that those markets when compared to the common polls are something like "who do think is going to win?" Versus " who do you want to win?", being the betting market the representation of the true expectations people have on those candidates, otherwise they would put no money on the table.
By the way, if you take a look as the macroeconomics of the United States, it seems they are going quite good under the leadership of Biden, having a record low unemployment and inflation going pretty much down, compared to previous years of his presidency. Historically, presidents who manage to keep a good economical climate in the United States tend to be reelected.

Just because one of the candidates never conceded does not mean it was actual foul play during the election.

[alani123]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/rfk-jr-brain-health-memory-loss.html

Wake up babe, new New York Times attack article just dropped 

They're now claiming that RFK Jr. has parasitic worms in his brain based off of a statement he once made. They even defied medical ethics to ask doctors for a diagnosis about someone they haven't examined. It's so funny how the media will play with someone's pain only to make fun of them and attack them in politics. If the Biden campaign keeps being so reactionary I expect more centrists to end up voting Trump because this media strategy is beyond stupid.