Poll :: When will Bitcoin reach $1 Billion total value

[memvola]

Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.

Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.

AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage.

This made me curious about what the most expensive thing ever bought with Bitcoin is (I'm suspecting it's a business rather than a commodity). Maybe we need a poll about this too.

$1B isn't insane, the market cap went above $100M during last year. Granted, it was a surprise but if we witness another surprise of that magnitude, $1B would be less than impressive.

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[Otoh]

summary on the previous page updated

westkybitcoins - thanks for pointing out my error with your AU call

waspoza - your date for B$1 is taken so please re-choose if you wish to enter one for that

[anu]

Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.

Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.

AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage.

You are setting an OUGHT to the current IS. If I thought the current state of Bitcoin is the summit, I'd be out as fast as a transfer goes to MtGox.

[Kluge]

Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.

Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.

AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage.

You are setting an OUGHT to the current IS. If I thought the current state of Bitcoin is the summit, I'd be out as fast as a transfer goes to MtGox.

I don't think BTC is at its peak, fwiw. I don't recall a time when BTC didn't fluctuate at least 10% in value from the high to low for a week since I've started mining ~April/May '11, however. It's possible BTC could reach $1b in total value, possible God exists as defined by the KJV Bible, and possible Sasquatch exists in space and is plotting the demise of the human race.

[waspoza]

waspoza - your date for B$1 is taken so please re-choose if you wish to enter one for that

Damn, looks like someone have birthday same day as me. 

I'm taking 2013.12.06 (december) then. For both.

[Otoh]

Here's the final summary of the dates chosen, voting & prize entries are now closed, with the time frame of the 4 years up to the end of 2017 being the most popular years for issued Bitcoins to reach $1 B in the poll votes, but 2012 taking it in the date choice & the same for 1 BTC to gain parity with 1 gm Au.

Here also a rounded up table of the approx BTC price for achieving $1 B in the years of them being mined & the $ value of each 5 BTC prize offered - though I chose dates for 2015 myself the sooner I get to give those prizes away the happier I'll be  

Year  1BTC   5BTC    5BTC     20BTC (the doubled prize for winning both dates)

2012   $110   $550     $550      $2,200
2013   $95     $475     $475      $1,900     <--- WTG BTC & Scott J ~ March 2013 for the double prize!   
2014   $80     $400     $400      $1,600
2015   $75     $375     $375      $1,500
2016   $65     $325     $325      $1,300
2018   $60     $300     $300      $1,200
2020   $55     $275     $275      $1,100
2023   $50     $250     $250      $1,000
2033   $48     $238     $238      $952

    Final Summary  

$1B

2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 07 07 foggyb
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 07 notme

2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent  
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 04 indeededausername
2014 06 23 Kluge

2015 04 01 Revalin
2015 04 02 Otoh

2016 07 08 proudhon

2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73

Never - Hawkix

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 07 foggyb
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 03 23 Scott J    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent  
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2015 05 05 Otoh

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

Never - westkybitcoins

Prizes:

1BiLLioN      Sent:  Tx

1GramAu1   Sent:  Tx

1x2wins      Sent:  Tx

[Piper67]

Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.

Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.

AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage.

You are setting an OUGHT to the current IS. If I thought the current state of Bitcoin is the summit, I'd be out as fast as a transfer goes to MtGox.

I don't think BTC is at its peak, fwiw. I don't recall a time when BTC didn't fluctuate at least 10% in value from the high to low for a week since I've started mining ~April/May '11, however. It's possible BTC could reach $1b in total value, possible God exists as defined by the KJV Bible, and possible Sasquatch exists in space and is plotting the demise of the human race.

There is no chance God exists... there's a remote chance a sasquatch exists... there's almost certainty Bitcoin will reach a market cap of $1b.

[miscreanity]

I should've said 5/01 for both, so I'd win by default if either hit within the next three months. Does this mean I should be rooting for QE3 & WWIII?

[foggyb]

There is no chance God exists... there's a remote chance a sasquatch exists... there's almost certainty Bitcoin will reach a market cap of $1b.

Too many logical fallacies here, and too little time.

[westkybitcoins]

Current number of bitcoins: 9.464M

Current bitcoin price: $7.68 USD

Current price of all bitcoins: ~$72.68M

I should have aimed for next year....

[smoothie]

Current number of bitcoins: 9.464M

Current bitcoin price: $7.68 USD

Current price of all bitcoins: ~$72.68M

I should have aimed for next year....

It's not impossible for it to happen by December 31st, 2012

[cbeast]

I really thought there would be some useful developments for Bitcoin, but other than Bitzino I don't see much on the horizon until Bitcoincard goes into production. If you think of Bitcoin as a business, it doesn't offer much in the way of services yet.

[adamstgBit]

i just had the a long ass day

my father in-law's truck broke down as we tried to leave after picking up a frige and stove

finaly we get back,

somke a joint drink a beer, OPEN  a bottle of wine

i take a cab back


my father in-lawl is now in 100$ in

and who knows about the cab driver

I gave him bitcoin 101 on drugs


and fuck 'en did it did it right,

its not the first time i talk to TAXI VS about bitcoin but this time i spelled it out and this guy is oing in 100$ at least!


bitcoin trutly is a beacon of hpe and thats why man ,..... thats why it works,

because we want it to


BTC BTC

8$ is NOTHING its nothing more then the top after the well deserved bubble we just had ,...

12$ Bitch! paY UP!!!

[BadBitcoin (James Sutton)]

i just had the a long ass day

my father in-law's truck broke down as we tried to leave after picking up a frige and stove

finaly we get back,

somke a joint drink a beer, OPEN  a bottle of wine

i take a cab back


my father in-lawl is now in 100$ in

and who knows about the cab driver

I gave him bitcoin 101 on drugs


and fuck 'en did it did it right,

its not the first time i talk to TAXI VS about bitcoin but this time i spelled it out and this guy is oing in 100$ at least!


bitcoin trutly is a beacon of hpe and thats why man ,..... thats why it works,

because we want it to


BTC BTC

8$ is NOTHING its nothing more then the top after the well deserved bubble we just had ,...

12$ Bitch! paY UP!!!

were going to have another bubble, and then another after that, and another....

[Otoh]

Updated the OP & summary post above to show the prize coins set aside for this, I'm thinking now we'll see this happening in 2017 with a price of over $60 per BTC then & not just a bubble either.

Prizes:

1BiLLioN
1GramAu1
1x2wins

Note entries for the prizes are closed.

[Mageant]

Looks like this might actually happen this year already.

[Koekiemonster]

The 1g AU bet seems to be finished and 1B doesn't seem to be far away as well.

2013 03 23 Scott J
This is de 1g AU winner I guess?

And since Scott has the same date for both I guess there's a pretty good chance he'll win both and so 20BTC or about 2000$ by then.

[Otoh]

The 1g AU bet seems to be finished and 1B doesn't seem to be far away as well.

2013 03 23 Scott J
This is de 1g AU winner I guess?

And since Scott has the same date for both I guess there's a pretty good chance he'll win both and so 20BTC or about 2000$ by then.

Yep, you're right - ty, it does look like Scott J has won the 1g Au bet as 1g Au = $51.93 atm (laughably close to it's price when I made this poll over one year ago on 2012 01 04 = $51.25 up under 1.5% only), whilst 1 btc which was under $5 at the time has done appreciably better (up over 1,375%) & is now at $71.50 with this jump up which happened so fast from $50 over the last 3 days or so & did occur since the last person's entry of expected value.

I shall review it all over the next couple of days.

[Otoh]

Yep, I can confirm that 1 BTC first equaled 1 gram of gold on the 18th March 2013, so Scott J with a pick of the 23rd March 2013 was easily the closest & wins a 5 BTC prize, for the $1B prize we would need a BTC price of approx $95 if it was to be in 2013 which seems possible now, if over $100 (?) happens before mid April roughly (need to calculate coins issued times price) then Scott J would win the times two doubling prize for a total of 20 BTC all together.

Scott J - please post an address that you would like your prize to be sent to, many thanks & congratulations!

Edit: just tracking you down, it looks like it's: 1ScottJJpqTCBbTqnPa7Dyak5cfBPhtdh - I've PM-ed you for confirmation.






   >        !

Amazing to think that 1,000 BTC now equals considerably more than 1 Kg of gold atm.

Funny how the price then climbed about 50% to 1.5 gms Au/BTC over just the next 3 days & then crashed back to about 1 gm again 2 days after that, now somewhere in the middle-ish, maybe 1.25 gms approx.


Edited to add, from the distant future of about Nov 2013, the BTC vs Gold Oz chart:

[Scott J]

WOW! This is really amazing

I obviously thought it so unlikely that I would win either prize, let alone standing a chance of winning the 20 BTC!!

Thank you, Otoh - this was a really fun competition and is very generous of you

Sending to this address would be great - 1ScottJJpqTCBbTqnPa7Dyak5cfBPhtdh