Does martingale really works?

[TigerTatas]

itod, I couldn't agree more. I created a dice game with the same random number generator as just-dice. I actually use a real jd server/client seed to generate the sample set to test against.

The problem this last run was that I modified the strategy to be less aggressive. I *think* there was actually a good chance I would have hit the 10k before that bust streak had I continued aggressively as I began.

I am playing with a modification of martingale now that is showing promise, but I've really only tested it with a few seeds and less than a billion rolls. (Hammering off 100 million rolls only takes a few seconds.)

If anyone is interested, I created a loss streak simulator at streakcalc.azurewebsites.net. Each time you click roll, the results are calculated live, so you might want to run it a few times to get a good idea of what to expect.

If you run 100 million rolls at 9% a few times, you will see that the 160+ loss streak is somewhat rare, but not impossible by any means.

I simply gambled that 10k came before 160 losses. Sucks to be wrong, but the next round I might be right

See you on Just-Dice.com

Tiger

*edit* Thanks omahapoker! Hope you are around if/when I do get this right   I'm sure I'll need more like 11k to reach my goal after all the celebration tips go out!

[1714723862]

1714723862

[adaseb]

Just for fun, I'll add my thoughts to the thread.

Dooglus was spot on with the details of the 'method' used, but I'll recap so you can judge my sanity.

I decided to try this 9% martingale technique to see if I could reach 10k clams before I busted. That should make it pretty clear I was very much aware that busting was inevitable. (I guess  )

First, I created a little bot that would bet on 40 accounts up to 10 clams at 9% over 110 losses. At this point, I would get a message on my phone and JD chat that would alert me of a bust. I would then transfer 100 CLAM to the bot that busted from one of my primary accounts. At that point, I would just hope lady-luck was on my side and bet cautiously.

I had countless people tell me to quit and take my winnings and run. However, I see no thrill in that and I was on a mission to 10k. Someone asked how much I lost, my answer is 5.5k. Once clams are won, they are yours to lose. (About 4k of that was profit. I had won a little over 1k from a previous failed martingale I finished up.)

Dooglus, I still think the system can be beat. 

I'll accept your challenge of 'put your money where your mouth is' and give it another attempt soon. I have already started simulating millions of bets with a modified strategy and maybe this time I'll get the 10k.

Oh, and I wouldn't think of playing anywhere other than Just-Dice.com!


(If there is anyone out there with a brilliant plan of attack, jump on JD and message me and I will code up a bot to carry out the plan.)

-TigerTatas

So since you made 4K profit and you lost 5.5K, you only lost 1.5K of your personal money?

What program did you use to run your auto bot? Did you use JD API?

[chriswen]

He makes a good point.  Once you won something it really is like you lost them when you lose.  Because you could've not lost them.

[TigerTatas]

adaseb, yeah, that sounds about right.

I used JDCAPI by Seuntjie. https://github.com/Seuntjie900/jdcapi

[michinzx]

i used to use martingale method for a long time in my gamblings, and my conclusion after all those bets that i made with this method is that you ARE going to lose in the end.

and when the loss comes at the end of martingale method it hits you hard, and leaves you with no money.

now i just do regular betting for the thrill and fun of it.

im in the same boat, martingaling makes some money in the short run, but youll lose eventually, its just a matter of choosing when to cash out.

[adaseb]

adaseb, yeah, that sounds about right.

I used JDCAPI by Seuntjie. https://github.com/Seuntjie900/jdcapi

Any reason why you are betting with CLAM instead of BTC? Just curious

[hunkey600]

Martingale always work and you will always lose with that, so you have to come out when in profit else everything will be gone in a blink of eye,

[Erza]

Martingale always work and you will always lose with that, so you have to come out when in profit else everything will be gone in a blink of eye,

What do you mean? If you always lose that means that martingale never work and at the end you will loss all of your thing. And martingale sure need a

good amount of money to win some cash and that is hard to get

[Altcoin4life]

Using martingale at betterbets last night I did 0.2 btc profit in a couple hours betting 200 satoshi per roll. I felt a big crash was coming though so I just set the stop on win amount to 0.2 and it worked on the autobet.

Martingale can work but it's not good of you don't stop while ahead.

[jmurjeff]

martingale is a freaking trap. what happens when you reach the betting limit? what happens when you cannot double since your pocket is under 49% of the amount lost? best way to try roulette is look for the pattern,

play 1000 bet at 0.000001

look for the pattern, write everything down.

then look for a weak point where you see 1 bet repeating. bet half your wallet on red or black keeping something on the 0 just in case.

you at least covered 67% of chances

Yeah but the odds that the roulette wheel lands on red or black is less than 1 /2 times. You betting on the zero means you have about 51% of winning something. But you are risking much more than it is worth. They is no real pattern with roulette. That is a gambler's fallacy. Each roll is independent of the previous role in a fair game.

Martingale would work if there were no betting limits and you had an infinite bankroll. But that also assumes the casino had no betting limits and also had an infinite bankroll. In other words it does not work because you could have a huge string of losses and never come out ahead.

[iram91445]

Yeah it always fails in the end.  I used doge-dice for awhile and and used really small percentage of my total, but eventually the house always wins.  It can take a long time though if you use really small percentages of your total.  I got over half a million bets before going bust.

how much times in a row did you loose? also did you play high amounts or just dust to try the strategy out? i once made x4 my balance on 999dice with martingale and then quit

[TigerTatas]

adaseb, yeah, that sounds about right.

I used JDCAPI by Seuntjie. https://github.com/Seuntjie900/jdcapi

Any reason why you are betting with CLAM instead of BTC? Just curious

I couldn't care less if I were betting CLAM vs BTC. I happen to bet with CLAM because that is what Just-Dice is using at the moment. Over the last year, I've been truly impressed with the way Dooglus has run things there. So, I'm gambling at my preferred site, not necessarily with my preferred currency.

[miki77miki]

It works for a little bit but it will ALWAYS fuck up eventually

[Nautiluss]

So whats the point then, cause most wont ever have a good enough bankroll to do this.

I know you need more then 1 btc like way more to work with.

[omahapoker]

yes tiger i will be there when TT Money Printing Machine 2.0 comes out of beta.


 weeks of testing it and play around with the #'s should do the trick.

[waterpile]

So whats the point then, cause most wont ever have a good enough bankroll to do this.

I know you need more then 1 btc like way more to work with.

Its not  about the Bankroll, heck you can even win 1BTC with a bankroll of .04btc if you get pretty lucky. IMO Bankroll doesn't increase your chance of winning

[Phildo]

So whats the point then, cause most wont ever have a good enough bankroll to do this.

I know you need more then 1 btc like way more to work with.

Its not  about the Bankroll, heck you can even win 1BTC with a bankroll of .04btc if you get pretty lucky. IMO Bankroll doesn't increase your chance of winning

The bigger the bankroll the smaller the chance of your system failing because you run out of money.

[grendel25]

So whats the point then, cause most wont ever have a good enough bankroll to do this.

I know you need more then 1 btc like way more to work with.

Its not  about the Bankroll, heck you can even win 1BTC with a bankroll of .04btc if you get pretty lucky. IMO Bankroll doesn't increase your chance of winning

The bigger the bankroll the smaller the chance of your system failing because you run out of money.

Exactly.  the bankroll is a huge factor because it extends the lifeline of any betting system.  But... given enough time and enough bets, any bankroll can be completely liquidated unless the bankroll is infinite.  But let's say you're a millionaire and you prop up your million dollars into a martingale bet system.  Now let's say you set a very realistic profit goal of $100.  Hey, $100 compared to $1M is peanuts.  BUT... it's $100.  Would you turn down an easy $100?  Didn't think so.  Fact is, folks with big bankrolls can plunk down vast sums of money and easily make quick little profits on a martingale system.  Or... they could be very very very unlucky and lose all their millions.

[waterpile]

So whats the point then, cause most wont ever have a good enough bankroll to do this.

I know you need more then 1 btc like way more to work with.

Its not  about the Bankroll, heck you can even win 1BTC with a bankroll of .04btc if you get pretty lucky. IMO Bankroll doesn't increase your chance of winning

The bigger the bankroll the smaller the chance of your system failing because you run out of money.

Exactly.  the bankroll is a huge factor because it extends the lifeline of any betting system.  But... given enough time and enough bets, any bankroll can be completely liquidated unless the bankroll is infinite.  But let's say you're a millionaire and you prop up your million dollars into a martingale bet system.  Now let's say you set a very realistic profit goal of $100.  Hey, $100 compared to $1M is peanuts.  BUT... it's $100.  Would you turn down an easy $100?  Didn't think so.  Fact is, folks with big bankrolls can plunk down vast sums of money and easily make quick little profits on a martingale system.  Or... they could be very very very unlucky and lose all their millions.

not from my experiences and like you said they can be very unlucky which makes their BR totally useless..

[real789]

Not perfect work
we need more capital to try that

I try in primedice for 1 satosi martiangle I lose 0.1BTC
in 999dice and freebitcoin (multiple) I try martiangle too but iam still lose