Ryans' log

[RyNinDaCleM]

Still following? I hope so  

no

whats your target? for the next wave  

I thought you have your own target? Something like $375 is your buy zone and that's only if we can break below $400...
Well, I got some good news for you. That $375 isn't a bad spot to buy for a quick bounce back into the $400's, possibly to ~$420. If you can get it

 ~375$ thats my magic number, so far, yes.

i don't understand Elliott wave TA, but i'm assuming you have some kind of target price, what's the Elliott wave TA targeting?

am i correct in assuming its targeting ~382$

Yes, unless something changes the count

[adamstgBit]

Still following? I hope so  

no

whats your target? for the next wave  

I thought you have your own target? Something like $375 is your buy zone and that's only if we can break below $400...
Well, I got some good news for you. That $375 isn't a bad spot to buy for a quick bounce back into the $400's, possibly to ~$420. If you can get it

 ~375$ thats my magic number, so far, yes.

i don't understand Elliott wave TA, but i'm assuming you have some kind of target price, what's the Elliott wave TA targeting?

am i correct in assuming its targeting ~382$

Yes, unless something changes the count

cool.
there is method to my madness too, my target will probably change as more data comes in... ( like if your target changes , thats some valuable info to consider )
but my thread will be more focused on sentiment, and correlating news events with price movements, basically i'll throw up a chart and start talking about bitcoin price.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So, your bet is down from here?

Over all, yes, I see us dropping further for now.
We may meander sideways or even get another small rise, but the Bear market is not finished in my opinion.

To expand on this a little...
Today the price dropped below the original wave-i of C, so this drop from $450 can no longer be a 4th wave. It can however, be a larger B of an even larger ABC. In the chart I posted in post #418, The impulsive 1-2-3 down can also be a zig-zag ABC to make that larger B.

TL;DR
The rise from Tuesday was not impulsive. It was corrective, so more down trend to come.

Still following? I hope so 

no

whats your target? for the next wave 

I thought you have your own target? Something like $375 is your buy zone and that's only if we can break below $400...
Well, I got some good news for you. That $375 isn't a bad spot to buy for a quick bounce back into the $400's, possibly to ~$420. If you can get it

 ~375$ thats my magic number, so far, yes.

i don't understand Elliott wave TA, but i'm assuming you have some kind of target price, what's the Elliott wave TA targeting?

am i correct in assuming its targeting ~382$

Yes, unless something changes the count

cool.
there is method to my madness too, my target will probably change as more data comes in... ( like if your target changes , thats some valuable info to consider )
but my thread will be more focused on sentiment, and correlating news events with price movements, basically i'll throw up a chart and start talking about bitcoin price.

I read your first couple of posts today, and I'm looking forward to seeing more! But you keep it locked so I couldn't tell you that :/ Well thought out! Keep it up

[vuduchyld]

OK...did some reading tonight.  Not sure if I'm following or not, but your post #418 helps a lot.

Now I realize how much I've been oversimplifying, but that gray box for 3 would be followed by a gray box 4 (that shouldn't intersect with the first wave in the series, so target around $416-420) and then a gray box 5 that should end up below where you've got gray box 3.  Is that right?  So the $375-380 to $420 wave is a wave 4--a countertrend up wave of a 5 wave down?

I think I follow the divergence of the lower lows, and I read tonight that wave 3 is typically a strong wave, so wave 5 might not have quite as much downdraft.  But what kind of a divergence in your gray box count would signify some kind of larger market trend up?  A truncated wave, where the gray box 5 does not go lower than the gray box 3?  So, say if goes $380 to $420 completing your gray box 4, then goes to $400 and turns on strong volume?  But dammit, how did you NOT think the run from $400 to $450 was that?  It was like you knew it wasn't, as it was happening!

Grrr. 

[RyNinDaCleM]

You guys are funny!  

OK...did some reading tonight.  Not sure if I'm following or not, but your post #418 helps a lot.

Now I realize how much I've been oversimplifying, but that gray box for 3 would be followed by a gray box 4 (that shouldn't intersect with the first wave in the series, so target around $416-420) and then a gray box 5 that should end up below where you've got gray box 3.  Is that right? Correct So the $375-380 to $420 wave is a wave 4--a countertrend up wave of a 5 wave down? Correct

I think I follow the divergence of the lower lows, and I read tonight that wave 3 is typically a strong wave, so wave 5 might not have quite as much downdraft.  But what kind of a divergence in your gray box count would signify some kind of larger market trend up?  A truncated wave, where the gray box 5 does not go lower than the gray box 3?  So, say if goes $380 to $420 completing your gray box 4, then goes to $400 and turns on strong volume?  But dammit, how did you NOT think the run from $400 to $450 was that?  It was like you knew it wasn't, as it was happening!

Grrr.  

You are getting close already, and that's good!
I do expect both, a lower low in price and divergence to signal the end of 3 off the $450 spike.

That big spike up was the C of the correction. The tell tail sign was the A shown below in the box


3 waves up means corrective, so the next valid 5 waver after that must be the C. When you have 3 waves up, you don't immediately know if it's a 123 or an ABC, but once the 4 falls below the top of 1 it automatically becomes an ABC and that proposed 4 becomes part of the B.

BTW, that is hidden bearish divergence shown in the chart

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

@RyNinDaCleM

Reading up on Elliot Waves, it doesnt mention anything about ABC, or these numbered boxes you have drawn.  Perhaps you can give us a list of what you are using to do TA. I see you are using Elliot Waves, ABC of something, Trend lines that you use to draw triangles.

I wonder if this type of TA requires some form of abstract thinking that I lack.

[pinky]

@RyNinDaCleM

Reading up on Elliot Waves, it doesnt mention anything about ABC, or these numbered boxes you have drawn.

I wonder if this type of TA requires some form of abstract thinking that I lack.

May I suggest this video to refresh EW basics: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIIyevqaJoM

Search google to find pdf: "Elliott Wave Basics.pdf - DailyFX"

[h3speros]

@RyNinDaCleM

Reading up on Elliot Waves, it doesnt mention anything about ABC, or these numbered boxes you have drawn.  Perhaps you can give us a list of what you are using to do TA. I see you are using Elliot Waves, ABC of something, Trend lines that you use to draw triangles.

I wonder if this type of TA requires some form of abstract thinking that I lack.

if i have understood correctly, ABC means 3 waves and 12345 means 5 waves, these wave patterns comes by turns

EDIT. don't think what you lack, just try to concentrate on facts

EDIT2. "Elliott Wave Basics.pdf - DailyFX" is great for basics

[RyNinDaCleM]

@RyNinDaCleM

Reading up on Elliot Waves, it doesnt mention anything about ABC, or these numbered boxes you have drawn.  Perhaps you can give us a list of what you are using to do TA. I see you are using Elliot Waves, ABC of something, Trend lines that you use to draw triangles.

I wonder if this type of TA requires some form of abstract thinking that I lack.

As h3speros said, ABC's are the corrective moves... Well, the labeling for the corrective moves. The boxes were only to give highlights to the count and the sub-waves, so I had an easy way to refer to the different degrees of waves. The actual count is just normal EW.

[myself]

since u ppl like to talk about EW education take a look here http://studyofcycles.com/  also buy the book 90€ well spent

[vuduchyld]

For what it's worth, I went here and accessed the ten free lessons:

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/EWI-basic-tutorial/default.aspx?code=dc&articleid=0

Pretty helpful.  I followed the lessons reasonably well, and it helped me understand a LOT better what Ryan is doing.  I still have to say there appears to be quite a bit of interpretation that Ryan is doing--and doing very well, and even explaining it to us really well.  

A couple more questions:

1)  I just went back and looked at your last couple of charts.  One was a 60 minute chart and one was a 10 minute.  Does the picture look markedly different in one day charts versus 60 minute charts versus 10 minute charts?

2)  The lessons I took last night give me a much better understanding and ability to follow what you are doing with this particular set of counts on BTC.  But when I started looking at XMR and BTM, I just got completely lost.  Any suggestions for how one might look at a virgin chart and start the process of decoding the waves?  One thing I haven't tried is using something like Sierra Charts that allows me to mark it up.  Seems like that might be pretty necessary.  

3)  The candles actually seem to distract me from the points.  I wonder if it would make sense for me, anyway, to use a line chart.  

Edit...the only thing I can think of as a starting point is to try to find the 3's.

[h3speros]

hidden bearish divergence maybe forming on 1h at approx 410, but volume has not been strong so maybe this is not so important...

[RyNinDaCleM]

[snipped a bunch of chat]


BTW, that is hidden bearish divergence shown in the chart

[RyNinDaCleM]

For what it's worth, I went here and accessed the ten free lessons:

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/EWI-basic-tutorial/default.aspx?code=dc&articleid=0

Pretty helpful.  I followed the lessons reasonably well, and it helped me understand a LOT better what Ryan is doing.  I still have to say there appears to be quite a bit of interpretation that Ryan is doing--and doing very well, and even explaining it to us really well.  

A couple more questions:

1)  I just went back and looked at your last couple of charts.  One was a 60 minute chart and one was a 10 minute.  Does the picture look markedly different in one day charts versus 60 minute charts versus 10 minute charts?

2)  The lessons I took last night give me a much better understanding and ability to follow what you are doing with this particular set of counts on BTC.  But when I started looking at XMR and BTM, I just got completely lost.  Any suggestions for how one might look at a virgin chart and start the process of decoding the waves?  One thing I haven't tried is using something like Sierra Charts that allows me to mark it up.  Seems like that might be pretty necessary.  

3)  The candles actually seem to distract me from the points.  I wonder if it would make sense for me, anyway, to use a line chart.  

Edit...the only thing I can think of as a starting point is to try to find the 3's.

I will answer this in about an hour or so when I have a few minutes

[Tzupy]

RyNinDaCleM I also have a question, if you don't mind: in your opinion where did the bear market of 2011 end, mid October or mid November?



My problem is that the largest volume down was in mid November, but the appearance was of a flash crash, so it looked to me more
like a half-failed first sub-wave of wave 1 that lead the sellers to believe it was going to drop to 1$.

[notme]

RyNinDaCleM I also have a question, if you don't mind: in your opinion where did the bear market of 2011 end, mid October or mid November?



My problem is that the largest volume down was in mid November, but the appearance was of a flash crash, so it looked to me more
like a half-failed first sub-wave of wave 1 that lead the sellers to believe it was going to drop to 1$.

Zoom in, much of the volume on the 14th was support.



Since it is kind of hard to see the volume on the big red candle, here is the raw data, btc volume bolded:
2011-11-14 00:00:00   2.99573   2.99573   2.45   2.46082   48935.23   131623.81   2.69
2011-11-14 01:00:00   2.46082   2.74999   2.46082   2.55   41662.84   107080.98   2.57
2011-11-14 02:00:00   2.55185   2.7   2.499   2.60002   98127.51   250252.12   2.55
2011-11-14 03:00:00   2.6001   2.74   2.4   2.47223   62247.65   155135.56   2.49

So, for those 4 candles on the beginning of the 14th, we have 111,182.88 BTC on the two red candles and 139,790.35 BTC on the green candles.

Price didn't bottom until a few days later, on lower volume, but the 14th is when the sellers exhausted themselves.

[RyNinDaCleM]

RyNinDaCleM I also have a question, if you don't mind: in your opinion where did the bear market of 2011 end, mid October or mid November?



My problem is that the largest volume down was in mid November, but the appearance was of a flash crash, so it looked to me more
like a half-failed first sub-wave of wave 1 that lead the sellers to believe it was going to drop to 1$.

This one is easy to answer from my phone...
A large part of that volume was in one market sell into one giant bid. That is the candle that started the capitulation low of $1.994 and marked the end of the correction. and the end of the bear market. "End of bear market" is a difficult thing to determine because the wave-1 off the bottom is still believed by many to be part of the bear market (this also works the same way with bull markets as seen January through April). Either way, the 2011 bear market counts out in full valid waves from the top so it's not as if someone wanted to force a broken EW count.

notme made a good point to add that much of that volume was support (accumulation).

[h3speros]

BTW, that is hidden bearish divergence shown in the chart

idk how i missed that =D

[JustAnotherSheep]

hidden bearish divergence maybe forming on 1h at approx 410, but volume has not been strong so maybe this is not so important...

I have noticed that hidden divergences are often ignored if either the current trend is too strong and/or there are regular divergences that override it, even on lower timescales.

For example before the September August drop there was hidden bullish divergence (even 2 in a row) on daily as pointed out by oda.krell, but seemingly, market instead chose to react to the much smaller regular bearish divergence on <=1h candles.



Although this may have been compounded by some other technical signal I missed, since I'm a noob :-)

EDIT: Showed wrong divergence/drop, Friday ))

[zby]

hidden bearish divergence maybe forming on 1h at approx 410, but volume has not been strong so maybe this is not so important...

I have noticed that hidden divergences are often ignored if either the current trend is too strong and/or there are regular divergences that override it, even on lower timescales.

For example before the September drop there was hidden bullish divergence (even 2 in a row) on daily as pointed out by oda.krell, but seemingly, market instead chose to react to the much smaller regular bearish divergence on <=1h candles.



Although this may have been compounded by some other technical signal I missed, since I'm a noob :-)

According to this: http://www.babypips.com/school/high-school/trading-divergences/hidden-divergence.html hidden bullish divergence would mean lower high price and higher high indicator. In your picture it is the other way around.