[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

...and the good news just continues to roll down the pike.  Article after article.  Things are looking good for the moment. 

And 240 active nodes.  I *think* that's the highest I've seen.   Goes with the current 26MH/s nicely.

I noticed it was up around 245 earlier today.  Did not see any additional activity in China though.

Total nodes is at 416 currently:

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

Yeah, the 2hr doubling was pretty impressive, if suspect.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg16085766#msg16085766

Regardless.  Bullish 

[smooth]

Monero can handle a lot of transactions, from memory it was estimated to be something like 80%+ of what Visa currently does

80% of what Visa does is very aggressive and optimistic. I won't say it is impossible. Indeed Monero doesn't have "hard limits" and if we are willing to put the nodes in data centers (even many data centers spread around the world), then the transaction rate can be very, very high compared to Bitcoin. Bitcoin could also do this if it put nodes in data centers, but it would also need a social consensus to remove the hard limits and design ways to do that (dynamic block size, etc.). Monero would new fewer design changes or perhaps none at all.

The reddit link posted here quotes some numbers that are CPU-only and ignores bandwidth and storage concerns (as stated there). Even cheap consumer-grade storage isn't really a concern though, up to about 100 TPS. Bandwidth will be okay for some people in some markets and a show stopper for others. But it can be done.

So, ultimately, what it comes down to is we are limited more by the physical technologies (CPU, bandwidth, and storage; mostly bandwidth) and how that ties in with the desired degree of centralization, and not by hard limits in the coin design itself.

[Globb0]

and the physical types of limitation are naturally broken down over time

[MoneroMooo]

This is 1700 tps is NOT a good thing to get hung up on.

This is an extrapolation of what a particular bit of the code can handle (the signature verification code that NoodleDoodle optimized). As dEBRUYNE_1 mentions on that link, it is conditional on other things. And it was on some particular machine.

Now, with RingCT, this dropped a lot. RingCT is not optimized yet. At the moment, I get ~10 a second on my old laptop.

Now that I've scared you all, I hope you do remember that waving a number like that is not helpful. There is no such thing as "can monero handle X transactions per second" ? There is such a thing as "can this particular setup handle X transactions per second".

So, please, don't go around and claim monero does 1700 tps or that it shows monero is 242 times as good as bitcoin. Just view this as "this particular thing isn't a bottleneck" to scaling.

[RayX12]

Does anyone know what could be expected from Alphabay Market regarding TPS and BTC volume.

[Drhiggins]

...and the good news just continues to roll down the pike.  Article after article.  Things are looking good for the moment. 

And 240 active nodes.  I *think* that's the highest I've seen.   Goes with the current 26MH/s nicely.

I noticed it was up around 245 earlier today.  Did not see any additional activity in China though.

Total nodes is at 416 currently:

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

It was up at 455 about 6:30am EST.   Lots more activity in China and Asia even New Zealand got a node up and rolling. I think the price has gotten some attention in China LOL.  The more nodes the better. 

[magico]

...and the good news just continues to roll down the pike.  Article after article.  Things are looking good for the moment. 

And 240 active nodes.  I *think* that's the highest I've seen.   Goes with the current 26MH/s nicely.

I noticed it was up around 245 earlier today.  Did not see any additional activity in China though.

Total nodes is at 416 currently:

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

It was up at 455 about 6:30am EST.   Lots more activity in China and Asia even New Zealand got a node up and rolling. I think the price has gotten some attention in China LOL.  The more nodes the better. 

And 2 or 3 of them in a middle of Pacific Ocean. Cool!

[sparky999]

From FluffyPony's twitter

PSA: A fake MyMonero website (at .co instead of .com) is scraping logins, and using Google Ads to spread.

You can report the fake website to Google to have it removed at

https://support.google.com/adsense/contact/violation_report

[nanobrain]

Thanks for the replies....I would point out that I don't even know if the questions I was asking were the right questions to ask.

[sparky999]

Expecting to see 0.0175-0.0185 in the near future. If 0.02 is breached decisively I could see 0.035 developing within the next 2 weeks. I think a crash below 0.012 in the next few days is very unlikely.

OK let's see if I can go for three out of three correct predictions.

I'm currently expecting a violent upward breakout within the next 12 hours which will see 0.2 blown past and a high of 0.025-0.028 being hit before price stabilizes at approx 0.021. I think this will be the final upward push before Sept 1st. Events become incredibly hard to predict after that date as a single piece of good or bad news in relation to XMR usage on AlphaBay could see huge swings in either direction.

Breakout is confirmed - last chance to ride the train.

[CTTE]

Expecting to see 0.0175-0.0185 in the near future. If 0.02 is breached decisively I could see 0.035 developing within the next 2 weeks. I think a crash below 0.012 in the next few days is very unlikely.

OK let's see if I can go for three out of three correct predictions.

I'm currently expecting a violent upward breakout within the next 12 hours which will see 0.2 blown past and a high of 0.025-0.028 being hit before price stabilizes at approx 0.021. I think this will be the final upward push before Sept 1st. Events become incredibly hard to predict after that date as a single piece of good or bad news in relation to XMR usage on AlphaBay could see huge swings in either direction.

Breakout is confirmed - last chance to ride the train.

Do you (or anybody else) have a chart showing this breakout by any chance. I like what I'm seeing, I'm just not great at creating a chart to show these pivotal points in the timeline.

[sparky999]

Expecting to see 0.0175-0.0185 in the near future. If 0.02 is breached decisively I could see 0.035 developing within the next 2 weeks. I think a crash below 0.012 in the next few days is very unlikely.

OK let's see if I can go for three out of three correct predictions.

I'm currently expecting a violent upward breakout within the next 12 hours which will see 0.2 blown past and a high of 0.025-0.028 being hit before price stabilizes at approx 0.021. I think this will be the final upward push before Sept 1st. Events become incredibly hard to predict after that date as a single piece of good or bad news in relation to XMR usage on AlphaBay could see huge swings in either direction.

Breakout is confirmed - last chance to ride the train.

Do you (or anybody else) have a chart showing this breakout by any chance. I like what I'm seeing, I'm just not great at creating a chart to show these pivotal points in the timeline.

Look at the 1 hour chart ( I use bitcoinwisdom.com) and draw a falling wedge based off details at this website http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal

You should be able to see the break-out clearly.

[Anon136]

Monero can handle a lot of transactions, from memory it was estimated to be something like 80%+ of what Visa currently does

Edit - found this on Reddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3yrazw/what_is_moneros_theoretical_maximum_transaction/

TLDR: Just read the bold bits

You know I don't how if anyone has considered this but monero should scale better than bitcoin even if bitcoins block size increased dynamically because mining centralization wouldn't have as negative of an impact on our project than it would bitcoin. That is to say, we can afford more centralization because mining centralization has a lower cost for us.

I mean what are the fears associated with centralization of miners. What are the reasons to be concerned about this. The main one. What you might call the marginal concern because its the one that matters before any others do, is transaction censorship. So suppose miners become centralized enough to censor some transactions, which would the censor!? Miners would have no idea which transactions were the bad sort.

Has anyone written anything on this already. I might turn it into a short essay. *edit* Who am I kidding. No one wants to read essays anymore. Can someone just twitter that argument for me. Maybe get it retweeted by a majestic wild twitter pony. I would but I revile social media and so dont have any twitters or facebooks.

[Dafar]

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think?? 

[Anon136]

Is XMR's rise too much, too soon? It would have been better if the rise was slow  ...

That's the nature of the animal.  Wishing won't change that.  Price was too low, so it had to go up.  There were 2.5 years to bid it up, but no one could be bothered.  

It will happen again and again.  As with bitcoin, so with Monero, only faster.  Much faster.

Never can quite decide if you are a visionary or a very wishful dreamer. The day monero hits 10% of bitcoins value I will be entirely convinced it is the former. From that day forward I will want to hear everything you have to say

[Anon136]

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think??  

It's any mans guess rise or fall. Here's your analysis, 50/50. But I'll tell you this. I would rather get burned the one way than the other. I would rather lose a few thousand dollars than miss the chance of a lifetime. But that's just me.

[sparky999]

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think??  

 I would rather lose a few thousand dollars than miss the chance of a lifetime. But that's just me.

This.

[Hueristic]

Is XMR's rise too much, too soon? It would have been better if the rise was slow  ...

That's the nature of the animal.  Wishing won't change that.  Price was too low, so it had to go up.  There were 2.5 years to bid it up, but no one could be bothered.  

It will happen again and again.  As with bitcoin, so with Monero, only faster.  Much faster.

This is not true at all, if you remember there was a push by those that were trying to hold the line and have the emission cut because of the constant attacks and dumping. All the true believers took a beating or if they could afford to just threw their holdings in cold storage. Those without deep pockets got burned repeatedly over the years of manipulation and now deep pockets have moved in and orchestrated a long shakeout. It took me over a year just to break even and even after I divested I kept a node going. It would have been smarter to have dumped and grabbed ETH and ride that train and then get in again with the profits from that but that would have entailed jumping on a scam ICO and idealism was incompatible with that move. The big money and insider knowledge won again.

[nanobrain]

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think?? 

I considered it myself earlier today and thought better of it; while you can trick yourself into being 'reactive' the best strategy is often to stick with your original plan eg "I'm going to buy and see where we are in a week/month/year".  Its difficult when you watch the charts hawkishly not to get caught up in short term trends.

I'm sure the cryptogods will grant you a buy back dip

[Dafar]

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think??  

It's any mans guess rise or fall. Here's your analysis, 50/50. But I'll tell you this. I would rather get burned the one way than the other. I would rather lose a few thousand dollars than miss the chance of a lifetime. But that's just me.

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think?? 

I considered it myself earlier today and thought better of it; while you can trick yourself into being 'reactive' the best strategy is often to stick with your original plan eg "I'm going to buy and see where we are in a week/month/year".  Its difficult when you watch the charts hawkishly not to get caught up in short term trends.

I'm sure the cryptogods will grant you a buy back dip

Haha thanks, I agree with both of you...the long term game is much better than trying to time the market, if you believe in the coin's future that is.

But I've done that with bitcoin and while it's worked out well for me there were times when the dips were obvious and if I made moves instead of sitting and watching I could have had 2-3X more bitcoin than I have now.

One I'm worried about with Monero is that after this pump phase it might stay stagnant for a while and BTC might rise because imo it's overdue for a rise... thats gonna make the monero/btc parity even smaller and I'll be stuck holding monero until the next pump