aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 23, 2016, 05:12:23 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2016, 05:32:28 PM by aminorex |
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I suggest that topics unrelated to speculation be directed to another thread.
Regarding stable levels, you can reason about it simply: BTC 2013 established that DNM demand supports a $100 * 10mm currency, b =1e9 USD. Some multiple of that, k, between 0.0 and 1.0, shall be supported in XMR at equilibrium, at some time n years in the future. The crypto speculation marketplace discounts future values at some rate, "r". The NPV of XMR is then P_now = k*b*(r^-n). To value XMR today, estimate k,r, as a function of n. The trading range today should be distributed as the distribution of the parameters implies for P_now.
Since b grows over time, using the 2013 value produces an under-estimate.
Another way of using this relationship: r = exp[(log{k*b}-log{P})/n]. If you think the market-implied discounting rate "r" is excessive, buy. I you think it is too rosy-eyed, sell. Of course this is fundamentals-based rational long-term investment policy, and does not account for speculative excesses, nor does it model volatility directly. Variance due to parametric uncertainty and volatility should be reflected in your position sizing (Kelly/leverage space). |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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aminorex
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August 23, 2016, 05:20:25 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2016, 05:42:09 PM by aminorex |
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Hard to get 'em back when the market moves wildly in one direction, eh?
Exactimente. Your volatility is low ( good Sharpe) but if you sacrifice all the tail gains, well... No financial professional can simultaneously underperform the market and claim to competence. I like to outperform on both risk-adjusted and un-adjusted bases. It makes up for years of painful self-control that way. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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bitebits
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.
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August 23, 2016, 05:32:05 PM |
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Wouldn't be surprised if Monero is the next Bitcoin. I just bought quite a bit. I have never been really been a Monero Supporter until now.
What exactly changed your mind if I may ask? |
You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
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nioc
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August 23, 2016, 05:39:12 PM |
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My gut feeling says we're heading towards 0.012.
We're clearly in the middle of a profound change.
I think your guy feeling is wrong but good luck to you if you are invested and plan on selling some at .012 Perhaps. But of the several years I've been frequenting this thread I can't think of any occasions where I have been wrong as yet. Yeah this guy rangedriver's gut is good. Clearly I have underestimated the force of this move. It appears as though stability will occur somewhere north of 0.01. I don't have enough info yet to estimate where. I gave up on market-making again, since these large impulsive moves are fatal to MMer profitability. Holding rather too much BTC right now, hoping for a dip.
Edit: currently forming another bull flag. Expecting an impulsive move past .01 later today. How far past, is not with my comfortable domain of estimation.
This guy ain't bad either especially considering his uberty. Your chance to right click aminorex  I have held through ALL the ups and downs. I'll consider selling a few when there are no zeros immediately to the right of the decimal point. |
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Blazin8888
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August 23, 2016, 05:41:23 PM |
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179 BTC BUY WALL - HERE WE GO ? - BREAKING 1 MILLO SAT NOW?
Chewpracabra that faggot MOD in troll box hammered me for telling people to buy some XMR cheap lmao I think he is a butt hurt mod who missed this rise
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 23, 2016, 05:44:21 PM |
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179 BTC BUY WALL - HERE WE GO ? - BREAKING 1 MILLO SAT NOW?
Chewpracabra that faggot MOD in troll box hammered me for telling people to buy some XMR cheap lmao I think he is a butt hurt mod who missed this rise
Yeah, trollbox mod policy is fascist. They will not tolerate truth or honesty there, only mealy-mouthed deceits. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Febo
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August 23, 2016, 07:13:15 PM |
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I think i caught the highest volume unless there will be soem surprises next hour.  |
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jehst
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August 23, 2016, 07:42:52 PM |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
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Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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primer-
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August 23, 2016, 07:53:30 PM |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
The price is going down back to .005 once XMR deposits are re-enabled on Polo. They've been re-syncing their wallets for 13 hours now... |
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Msile
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August 23, 2016, 07:56:28 PM |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
The price is going down back to .005 once XMR deposits are re-enabled on Polo. They've been re-syncing their wallets for 13 hours now... ''resyncing their wallet'' also known as selling their pumped up XMR |
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primer-
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August 23, 2016, 07:58:20 PM |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
The price is going down back to .005 once XMR deposits are re-enabled on Polo. They've been re-syncing their wallets for 13 hours now... ''resyncing their wallet'' also known as selling their pumped up XMR Yes, Poloniex is pulling an ETC-like stunt again... Turned into a such a shady exchange.. |
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MooneroShill
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August 23, 2016, 08:00:27 PM |
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primer- arrives => I'm buying more
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Blazin8888
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August 23, 2016, 08:06:29 PM |
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I think we will be calm for the next 4-8 hours until we break 1 MILL SAT.
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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August 23, 2016, 08:22:10 PM |
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I am hoping for a drop to 650k. I will be all-in at that point.
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Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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Drhiggins
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August 23, 2016, 08:25:07 PM |
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In Feb 2011, the original Silk Road was created and the bitcoin price was ~$1. In the summer of 2011 it touched $32. Do we follow a same trajectory, possibly even quicker, with a mature DNM?
I'm thinking along these lines as well. DNM linked with privacy of Monero will drive more merchants to accept. Plus when GUI drops we will see a short term bloom from that alone. I think XMR at $15 U.S. by Jan 1st 2017. I'm no financial expert though. |
Monerohash.com U.S. Mining Pool
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primer-
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August 23, 2016, 08:25:29 PM |
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I am hoping for a drop to 650k. I will be all-in at that point.
Hehe you are one stupid trader |
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BitcoinNewsMagazine
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August 23, 2016, 08:45:22 PM |
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XMR deposits are enabled again at Poloniex.
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Anon136
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August 23, 2016, 08:46:01 PM |
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I am hoping for a drop to 650k. I will be all-in at that point.
Yea. Screw bitcoin and its non-fungibility and politics preventing any solution. I don't expect a significant drop but I'm hoping too. |
Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited? |
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Globb0
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Free spirit
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August 23, 2016, 09:01:49 PM |
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Poloniex freeze hurt the price a bit cos angry people want to dump a bit now.
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sparky999
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August 23, 2016, 09:02:14 PM |
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I am hoping for a drop to 650k. I will be all-in at that point.
So you are saying I should place my buy at 651k - thanking you sir |
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