[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dEBRUYNE]

Livecoin will add Monero this week:

https://twitter.com/livecoin_net/status/770358051735998464

[1715355604]

1715355604

[1715355604]

1715355604

[Drhiggins]

...and the good news just continues to roll down the pike.  Article after article.  Things are looking good for the moment. 

[RayX12]

Dear Monero Bag Holders:

Please stop dumping your precious little things..  Then your loved ones will grow and grow..  Pretty soon Monero will be king of anonymity and freedom from eavesdropping.

[explorer]

...and the good news just continues to roll down the pike.  Article after article.  Things are looking good for the moment. 

And 240 active nodes.  I *think* that's the highest I've seen.   Goes with the current 26MH/s nicely.

[Drhiggins]

...and the good news just continues to roll down the pike.  Article after article.  Things are looking good for the moment. 

And 240 active nodes.  I *think* that's the highest I've seen.   Goes with the current 26MH/s nicely.

I noticed it was up around 245 earlier today.  Did not see any additional activity in China though.

[aminorex]

Aminorex, can you explain how you determine the rational limit of XMR to own?

I think it's counter-productive to own so much that it threatens the value of the currency you do hold.  

My original reasoning was invalid, but I used it for lack of a valid alternative:  There are working local currencies in villages as small as ca.  1000 households.  Thus the greatest lower bound on the number of nodes in a viable economy is, to first approximation on evidence, ~1000.  Therefore, No one should own more than 0.1% of emission in the long-run, or there may not be enough nodes.

Not only is this reasoning invalid, it is also obsolete:  There is now a much broader distribution than there was when I formulated the invalid conclusion.  Due to divisibility, it doesn't matter what share of the float the nodes have, so long as the share is distributed appropriately amongst the nodes of the (sub-)economy.

There remain two considerations which I now deem relevant:

I exercise some restraint simply because I don't think it's healthy for adoption if there is a single person who you can point at and say:  He will benefit disproportionately, if I use this currency.  Why should I act to enrich him?  (Although, in my own case, I think I could make a pretty good argument that you should.  Otherwise I wouldn't bother.)  As long as I am among 50 instead of 5, I think I am not doing much positive harm to the economy.  The farther up the Gini curve you go, the more self-defeating it becomes. Maybe you can predate upon a well-developed economy, and continuously improve yourself by impoverishing others, but in a nascent start-up economy, I doubt it can be done, practically speaking.  You have to contribute as best you can, and help insure a constructive, utile distribution, at least until it bootstraps.  My ability to contribute is constrained by available time, so I can't accumulate too much -- otherwise, my harm to distribution will not be adequately offset by my positive contributions in other areas.  How do you calibrate this?  I haven't tried very hard, but I don't really know how, so I just wing it.  Which makes the constraint perhaps a bit too ... flexible ... for perfect, clear (self-interested OR altruistic) rationality.

A separate fuzzy factor which I weigh together with this:  If I were to have owned too much Monero when it was declining, my courage might have failed, or my wife might have ditched me.  Neither would be an acceptable outcome:  I abhor personal cowardice, and I cherish and respect my wife.  But those are personal factors, and highly subjective, although you can work with them rationally, within some limited domains.

[nanobrain]

Gosh, what happened?

When I went to bed the resident monkey botherer was predicting an ATH within "6 to 8 hours" - no doubt those numbers were used in a semantically objective way 

I had a look on AlphaBay yesterday and the number of vendors offering to use XMR is 'yuuugge'....and if ever a cohort appreciated anonymity.  The question is whether the buyers can get their shit together to purchase XMR.

[cAPSLOCK]

Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

[Anon136]

Gosh, what happened?

The inevitable. There will be corrections.

[Anon136]

Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

catching a falling knife > buying with the herd at the top

[cAPSLOCK]

Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

catching a falling knife > buying with the herd at the top

Well we are breaking the bottom of a wedge it looks like to me.

Just have to wait somewhere between 3 minutes and 6 hours.

[Hueristic]

Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

catching a falling knife > buying with the herd at the top

Well we are breaking the bottom of a wedge it looks like to me.

Just have to wait somewhere between 3 minutes and 6 hours.

I hope there is a huge dump so I can back in next week.

[aminorex]

Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

catching a falling knife > buying with the herd at the top

Well we are breaking the bottom of a wedge it looks like to me.

Just have to wait somewhere between 3 minutes and 6 hours.

I hope there is a huge dump so I can back in next week.

Maybe you could arrange for a mutability bug, or find evidence of fractional Reserve on the polo blockchain

[Hueristic]

Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

catching a falling knife > buying with the herd at the top

Well we are breaking the bottom of a wedge it looks like to me.

Just have to wait somewhere between 3 minutes and 6 hours.

I hope there is a huge dump so I can back in next week.

Maybe you could arrange for a mutability bug, or find evidence of bad accounting on the polo blockchain

Bah, I can only hope! when I run bad it's global and the last 6 months have been spectacularly bad!

Tell me what are the odds of AA v/s AA twice and losing both!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR52zv1GqBY

Thats not me BTW.

[smfuser]

Aminorex, can you explain how you determine the rational limit of XMR to own?

I think it's counter-productive to own so much that it threatens the value of the currency you do hold.  

My original reasoning was invalid, but I used it for lack of a valid alternative:  There are working local currencies in villages as small as ca.  1000 households.  Thus the greatest lower bound on the number of nodes in a viable economy is, to first approximation on evidence, ~1000.  Therefore, No one should own more than 0.1% of emission in the long-run, or there may not be enough nodes.

Not only is this reasoning invalid, it is also obsolete:  There is now a much broader distribution than there was when I formulated the invalid conclusion.  Due to divisibility, it doesn't matter what share of the float the nodes have, so long as the share is distributed appropriately amongst the nodes of the (sub-)economy.

There remain two considerations which I now deem relevant:

I exercise some restraint simply because I don't think it's healthy for adoption if there is a single person who you can point at and say:  He will benefit disproportionately, if I use this currency.  Why should I act to enrich him?  (Although, in my own case, I think I could make a pretty good argument that you should.  Otherwise I wouldn't bother.)  As long as I am among 50 instead of 5, I think I am not doing much positive harm to the economy.  The farther up the Gini curve you go, the more self-defeating it becomes. Maybe you can predate upon a well-developed economy, and continuously improve yourself by impoverishing others, but in a nascent start-up economy, I doubt it can be done, practically speaking.  You have to contribute as best you can, and help insure a constructive, utile distribution, at least until it bootstraps.  My ability to contribute is constrained by available time, so I can't accumulate too much -- otherwise, my harm to distribution will not be adequately offset by my positive contributions in other areas.  How do you calibrate this?  I haven't tried very hard, but I don't really know how, so I just wing it.  Which makes the constraint perhaps a bit too ... flexible ... for perfect, clear (self-interested OR altruistic) rationality.

A separate fuzzy factor which I weigh together with this:  If I were to have owned too much Monero when it was declining, my courage might have failed, or my wife might have ditched me.  Neither would be an acceptable outcome:  I abhor personal cowardice, and I cherish and respect my wife.  But those are personal factors, and highly subjective, although you can work with them rationally, within some limited domains.

Thanks for the detailed reply. Am I correctly understanding that you originally thought the limit was ~0.1% of emission, but now you think it's ~2%? What figure do you use for emission? Aside from the limit on % of emission, what do you think should be the limit on % of assets allocated to XMR?

[infofront]

It may be a bit early to call it support, but there seems to be support building around .014.

[nanobrain]

Roger Ver makes a good point here
https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29049

"Monero... hasn't been heavily tested with actual users yet.
It would only take one thing to go wrong technically for most, or all of the market cap to disappear."

The thoughts of those more technically minded....?

[Hueristic]

Roger Ver makes a good point here
https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29049

"Monero... hasn't been heavily tested with actual users yet.
It would only take one thing to go wrong technically for most, or all of the market cap to disappear."

The thoughts of those more technically minded....?

translation:

I took profit and am gonna buy at a lower pricepoint now.

[nanobrain]

Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

[nanobrain]

Roger Ver makes a good point here
https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29049

"Monero... hasn't been heavily tested with actual users yet.
It would only take one thing to go wrong technically for most, or all of the market cap to disappear."

The thoughts of those more technically minded....?

translation:

I took profit and am gonna buy at a lower pricepoint now.

Just cynical