Can you tell my why in this thread always post the same 3-4 posters??
Adoption of XMR is miniscule. Most holders have strong privacy interests, so very few post. Even among those who might post, few have any reason to do so. Some are former bitcoin maximalists, or even present maximalists who want to hedge, and would lose face by showing their hand.
The miniscule adoption levels are why XMR has 500x as much upside as bitcoin, conservatively. The current market cap is what you get with about 2000 mostly speculative holders and 20 merchants. (Total SWAG numbers.)
If e.g. AlphaBay added XMR you could expect price to rapidly (over a few weeks) rise to the $20-$50 level, from just that one market, disregarding speculators front-running it. If CryptoWall gang is arrested (regardless whether they are mafiosos or intelligence agents) and the next crew demand XMR, expect another factor of 2-5x. if some Chinese guy using bitcoin to buy a South American retirement home gets a bullet for evading capital controls, expect a factor of 5-10x short-term, and 50-100x long-term.
Almost none of those people will ever post here. But a few more FX and I-bank types will show up, a few more pump & dump people, a few more Mrs. Wantanabe types, and some libertarian ideologues. Then XMR maximalists will emerge in force, journalists and academics will take interest, and nation-state politics will become involved.
That's when risk goes up to new levels.
Price stability is impossible until XMR-BTC parity has been surpassed, if only briefly. Price stability only comes when most of the circulating XMR is servicing contractual obligations, consumption, or supply chain relationships.
When that happens, risk drops dramatically. (Bitcoin hasn't reached this level yet.)
Then very conservative large stores of wealth will adopt XMR, and the final 20-50x factor is priced in when most of the XMR is held in long-term reserves.
