[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

Expect Monero to reach 0.005 sometime before April. Where it goes from there is dependent on development variables.

Still in operation.

Interesting to watch the gyrations on the order book (poloniex).  ~300 BTC pulled from bids while I slept, and 100K+ XMR removed from offered loans.  I had none repaid (.5 - 1%) with this dip (yay  ), and there are still significant amounts available below that level.  I spend way too much time watching this stuff.  Good thing I've got a job starting up next week  

If you do not sell your Moneros too early you might be able to quit your job soonero^TM.  

[TrueCryptonaire]

Right now Monero is paying higher interest rate than bitcoin. This makes XMR pretty attractive investment opportunity compared with btc. You get 0.12 % per day for btc but 0.19 for XMR these days.
The difference in interest rates indicates a bull run of XMR that will take place after this weak hand shaking.

[explorer]

Expect Monero to reach 0.005 sometime before April. Where it goes from there is dependent on development variables.

Still in operation.

Interesting to watch the gyrations on the order book (poloniex).  ~300 BTC pulled from bids while I slept, and 100K+ XMR removed from offered loans.  I had none repaid (.5 - 1%) with this dip (yay  ), and there are still significant amounts available below that level.  I spend way too much time watching this stuff.  Good thing I've got a job starting up next week  

If you do not sell your Moneros too early you might be able to quit your job soonero^TM.  

My job of 20+ years quit me last year.  Liberating!  Now my time is free to make money, or relax and watch the charts as I see fit.  Salary = Slavery.  Never again.  As for selling moneroj, I won't be doing that for some time.  Still accumulating, though I may not buy much/any more if I can keep a trickle coming in from loans.  Life is good.

[Ms]

It will be that it gives a rise today?

[vuduchyld]

Expect Monero to reach 0.005 sometime before April. Where it goes from there is dependent on development variables.

Still in operation.

Interesting to watch the gyrations on the order book (poloniex).  ~300 BTC pulled from bids (or filled?) while I slept, and 100K+ XMR removed from offered loans.  I had none repaid (.5 - 1%) with this dip (yay  ), and there are still significant amounts available below that level.  I spend way too much time watching this stuff.  Good thing I've got a job starting up next week  

Looks to me like they were pulled.  Crazy stuff with the book, for sure.

I'm thinking there might be some people waiting for the fork.

I've acquired about 1700 this month so far, looking for another 1000 or so.

[vuduchyld]

Expect Monero to reach 0.005 sometime before April. Where it goes from there is dependent on development variables.

Still in operation.

Interesting to watch the gyrations on the order book (poloniex).  ~300 BTC pulled from bids (or filled?) while I slept, and 100K+ XMR removed from offered loans.  I had none repaid (.5 - 1%) with this dip (yay  ), and there are still significant amounts available below that level.  I spend way too much time watching this stuff.  Good thing I've got a job starting up next week  

Pretty bizarre day.  Now there is a 360 BTC sell wall at .00381.  I'd guess somebody wants to accumulate under .0030.  Pretty blatant attempt to push price down.  And, actually, I'm good with that.  I'll buy more.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Expect Monero to reach 0.005 sometime before April. Where it goes from there is dependent on development variables.

Still in operation.

Interesting to watch the gyrations on the order book (poloniex).  ~300 BTC pulled from bids (or filled?) while I slept, and 100K+ XMR removed from offered loans.  I had none repaid (.5 - 1%) with this dip (yay  ), and there are still significant amounts available below that level.  I spend way too much time watching this stuff.  Good thing I've got a job starting up next week  

Pretty bizarre day.  Now there is a 360 BTC sell wall at .00381.  I'd guess somebody wants to accumulate under .0030.  Pretty blatant attempt to push price down.  And, actually, I'm good with that.  I'll buy more.

I doubt it will go that low though.. IMO the current price is pretty much the new bottom (give or take)... But as this is microspeculation - will Monero cost 1.41 usd or 1.37 usd - the chances of going below 0.003 are certainly something (I speculate perhaps 10-20 % given the number of expensive outstanding short positions which probably will be covered over there if it will ever be reached anymore so the competition is quite drastic at these lower price points).

[aminorex]

Okay, I think I can declare victory, as it touched the 32 handle.

[nioc]

Okay, I think I can declare victory, as it touched the 32 handle.

Is game over?

[aminorex]

At a guess, price stabilizes near 340, short term, drifts towards 325 and range trades until the next influx.

If I am interpreting the book correctly, there should be two more jump cycles before our new friend is full, and the price will stabilize north of 400 (conservatively) in about a week.  

Okay, I said drift down to 32 handle, and it was actually a jump, so I was wrong on that, but yeah, all the stuff I predicted a few pages back worked out, basically as described, so far.  Now to range trade for a while, and then more BTC comes in, and levels the price up, ultimately through a 40 handle.

I might be starting to get the hang of the crypto markets.  Historically I have found them very hard to predict, as compared to larger markets, but I'm rather pleased with the accuracy of this particular estimation.  So far I have a winning streak of length 1.

Not that anyone will believe my predictions.  I don't even believe them.  If people believed them, they would front run them, thus breaking them.

[tifozi]

Ring Multisignature

https://shnoe.wordpress.com/2016/03/22/ring-multisignature/

I like Shen's papers more than price action.

Haven't seen Surae and Sarang active of late?

[smooth]

Ring Multisignature

https://shnoe.wordpress.com/2016/03/22/ring-multisignature/

I like Shen's papers more than price action.

Haven't seen Surae and Sarang active of late?

Both busy with other work. We do expect some new contributions from Surae sometime in the foreseeable future, but no promises at this point.

[dEBRUYNE]

Ring Multisignature

https://shnoe.wordpress.com/2016/03/22/ring-multisignature/

I like Shen's papers more than price action.

Haven't seen Surae and Sarang active of late?

From the dev meeting logs that are forthcoming:

<fluffypony> Surae is also going to be picking up MRL-6 in the summer

[newb4now]

Ring Multisignature

https://shnoe.wordpress.com/2016/03/22/ring-multisignature/

I like Shen's papers more than price action.

Haven't seen Surae and Sarang active of late?

From the dev meeting logs that are forthcoming:

<fluffypony> Surae is also going to be picking up MRL-6 in the summer

Has the subject of MRL-6 been announced yet?

[ArticMine]

The recent v0.9.3.0-release has provided tagged support for Win32 on x86/AMD64 processors. This is significant because there are still many Win32 computers out there. They have have a 64bit processor in many cases but if they were originally sold with 4GM or less of RAM chances are they are running 32bit Windows. It is one of the results of the behind the scene database work over the last year. Other important features of this release is the support for GNU/Linux on ARM 7 processors and also support for GNU/Linux on 32bit x86/AMD64 processors.

https://getmonero.org/downloads/

[smooth]

Ring Multisignature

https://shnoe.wordpress.com/2016/03/22/ring-multisignature/

I like Shen's papers more than price action.

Haven't seen Surae and Sarang active of late?

From the dev meeting logs that are forthcoming:

<fluffypony> Surae is also going to be picking up MRL-6 in the summer

Has the subject of MRL-6 been announced yet?

https://github.com/monero-project/research-lab/tree/master/publications/MRL-0006%20-%20Difficulty%20Adjustment%20Algorithms%20in%20Cryptocurrency%20Protocols

(work in progress)

[CryptoAddict]

Lots of dumping today, but price has barely moved.

It wasn't that long ago when dumping this much would have crashed the market completely.

[boolberry]

Lots of dumping today, but price has barely moved.

It wasn't that long ago when dumping this much would have crashed the market completely.

Some people might be nervous about the upcoming fork. Assuming it happens without any major problems I think the market may respond positively!

[dEBRUYNE]

Bump, still no progress from the pools listed below. Minergate has indicated that they are in the process of upgrading though, see conversations here with the official Monero twitter account:

https://twitter.com/MinerGate/with_replies

All others have upgraded and are safe to mine on.

Also, if you get this message when running bitmonerod:

Last scheduled hard fork time shows a daemon update is needed now

You can safely ignore that as long as you are on any Hydrogen Helix version (i.e. 0.9.x).

I strongly urge every miner that is still mining on one of the pools listed below to move his hash to another pool that has upgraded. A list of pools can be found here:

https://monerohash.com/#network

PSA: Users, (solo)miners, exchanges/merchants, and pooloperators must be on 0.9.x (preferably 0.9.3) in advance of the hardfork otherwise you will get forked/booted off the network. If you are mining on one of the following pools, please contact your poolop immediately or switch to another pool.


Approximately the 23th of March there will be a hardfork on the Monero network. Most pools have upgraded, but some have not yet. If they don't upgrade before the hardfork they will get forked/booted off the network. As a result you will miss out on revenue if you are mining on these pools. Thus, if you are mining on the following pools, please contact your pool owner as soon as possible and urge them to upgrade. Alternatively, you can switch to a pool that is on the right version.

FYI: You can plug the blockheader of your pool into "http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/hash_of_blockheader". The minor_version must show "minor_version: 2". This means that the pool is on the right version. If it shows "0" or "1" the pool is on an outdated version. An example of a pool on the right version (Monerohash):

http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2a88740443bf654e595bba7061509e6a3a80623da5de2478c4a90b45454a7fa8

List of pools that haven't upgraded yet:

• http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/064901fae3c4c1f42a10ca066e367ff277b1ae255043e17fad0695b9da775030 | Contact: http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/#community
• http://xmr.alimabi.cn/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/612eeb758358ffa8af784c6c12c59b7cc038474fe525b5d7794be30f585f941c | Contact: http://xmr.alimabi.cn/#support
• http://cryptmonero.com/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/b98ebc9fc8674c2b6cfa303cd9d8770f9187e87664f8acf93446b2ff7e15674b | Contact: http://cryptmonero.com/#support
• https://minergate.com/pool-stats/mro | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2fb5df3e2967a7679ad5ff6848b6b5eb3cb071ba31e3e84a16b95b7d7c421dd2 | Contact: https://minergate.com/
• If you are mining on a private pool, please check the block header manually (if the pool is on the right version) using the method I described.

List of pools that have upgraded:

You can find most pools here:

https://monerohash.com/#network

Some of the aforementioned pools are listed there as well. If you are switching, avoid the aforementioned pools.


Binaries:

Monero v0.9.3 - Hydrogen Helix - released! (Urgent and important bug fixes to 0.9.2 Hydrogen Helix)

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases/tag/v0.9.3


Information from Github:

This has urgent and important bug fixes to 0.9.2 Hydrogen Helix

• Urgent bug fix for database corruption issues in 0.9.2
• Official Windows 32-bit releases are back
• Updates to miniupnpc
• Sets v3 fork date for September, 2016
• Fixes core tests and re-enables them
• Fixes a problem with --password-file not working in RPC mode

General hardfork information:

Background:

https://forum.getmonero.org/4/academic-and-technical/303/a-formal-approach-towards-better-hard-fork-management

What are the change(s) with the upcoming hard fork on the 20th of March?

• Blocktime is bumped from 1 to 2 minutes. See:

https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/2401/increasing-the-block-time

• Minimum blocksize is bumped to 60 KB. See:

https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/2409/increasing-the-minimum-block-size

A big advantage of this is that current individual transactions that sometimes won't go through (because they are a bit above the median due to many outputs (e.g. dust), or the daemon / MyMonero rejects them for some reason) can easily be included in the block without incurring a penalty. Above is a bit of a blunt explanation, I am sure one of the core-team members / developers could give you a more detailed explanation.

• Finally, the recommendations from the MRL team stated in MRL-0004, of which the minimum mixin >= 3 is probably the most salient. See:

https://lab.getmonero.org/pubs/MRL-0004.pdf

P.S. Due to variance the hard fork will likely be on the 21th or 22th of March. A specific block height was determined for the hardfork, not a specific date. The specific blockheight for the hardfork can be found here:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/blob/master/src/cryptonote_core/blockchain.cpp#L83

// version 2 starts from block 1009827

P.P.S. As long as you are on any 0.9.x version in advance of the hardfork you are fine.

[iCEBREAKER]

Lots of dumping today, but price has barely moved.

It wasn't that long ago when dumping this much would have crashed the market completely.

Some people might be nervous about the upcoming fork. Assuming it happens without any major problems I think the market may respond positively!

Much of the dumping may be assumed to be shorts gambling with borrowed XMR.  Lending rates are even higher than BTC's (the usual highwater benchmark).  That's tens of thousands of coins which must be repurchased and repaid with not-insignificant interest.

The success of the hard fork and Shen's latest groundbreaking work on adding multi-sig to RingCT, along with his spiffy MiniNero remote GUI thingy, should provided fuel for our rocket's ascent beyond 0.004.

The ATH >1k unique views on /r/monero is also a nice barometer indicating an ongoing/upcoming storm of interest and possible gains.