[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Imste]

Monero is definetly the coin to be in for the next couple weeks, mark my words!

[explorer]

Monero is definetly the coin to be in for the next couple weeks years, mark my words!

FTFY

And look at that depth chart on polo LOL

green wall going vertical

[vuduchyld]

Monero is definetly the coin to be in for the next couple weeks years, mark my words!

FTFY

And look at that depth chart on polo LOL

green wall going vertical

It's bouncing around so much...I'm getting seasick.

[saddambitcoin]

About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.

Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!

I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.

[smooth]

About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.

Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!

Fantastic story, and congrats on the new job!

[explorer]

About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.

Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!

I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.

Awesome.

[smooth]

Ridiculing scams like Dash is great fun and a public service, but I speculate we don't need to write obituaries for legitimate pure-proof-of-work blue-chip coins in order to promote our own.

I don't think he's promoting XMR by expressing skepticism about LTC. I felt the same way about LTC, for much the same reasons, before XMR existed, and he probably did too. Obviously I was wrong back then, in the sense that LTC is still here.

OK, so what have you learned from being spectacularly wrong about LTC for so many years?

I would actually generalize a bit. Essentially no coins that existed then and were in the top ten two years ago are completely dead (going farther back it gets a bit different, as at one point there were only 10 alts and not all of them are still viable). LTC has dropped a few slots. Others like Nxt, Namecoin, and Bitshares have dropped more. But these systems are nothing if not resilient, even in a fiercely competitive market.

I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability.  We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up.  It's not zero sum.  The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.

This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).

[Melbustus]

in Litecoin's case, on "me too" tech that offers nothing to the ecosystem

You mean like how a hospital's secondary (backup) and tertiary (failsafe) generators are "me too" tech that offer nothing to the doctors and patients inside?

LTC stays in the 9 figure range because it works, and a 'generation' of (Chinese) bitcoiners were introduced to both at the same time.  LTC is the one made by a super-smart Chinese-American guy from a very successful family, which doesn't hurt at all for PR purposes....

And you are literally wrong, because LTC's additional tps capacity is next in line to absorb marginal use cases priced out (or timed out) of BTC.

Ridiculing scams like Dash is great fun and a public service, but I speculate we don't need to write obituaries for legitimate pure-proof-of-work blue-chip coins in order to promote our own.

^ for context.

...blue-chip coins...

Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp

[smooth]

Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp

It has been a "top-few" coin for half of Bitcoin's lifetime. How can you be much more blue chip than that?

Theory is nice, but when the theory doesn't match reality, adjust the theory.

That's not to say it is forever necessarily. Blue chips aren't either.

[25hashcoin]

Word is that the chinese don't consider litecoin to be an altcoin. They just see bitcoin and litecoin and then the rest. Litecoin is also the only other coin besides bitcoin on the major chinese exchanges. This is enough for me to keep some of my hodlings in ltc for the time being. Much more room for profit than btc, and it still hasn't shown that it will be decoupled from btcs next moves. Very long term, I am not sure as no one is, but worst case I figure I will be able to increase my btc and xmr hodlings.

[smoothie]

About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.

Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!

I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.

Very good. I'm happy for you.

Yes programming/coding can be an acquired taste as it was for me.

It is a very valuable skill in the time we live in.

[smoothie]

Word is that the chinese don't consider litecoin to be an altcoin. They just see bitcoin and litecoin and then the rest. Litecoin is also the only other coin besides bitcoin on the major chinese exchanges. This is enough for me to keep some of my hodlings in ltc for the time being. Much more room for profit than btc, and it still hasn't shown that it will be decoupled from btcs next moves. Very long term, I am not sure as no one is, but worst case I figure I will be able to increase my btc and xmr hodlings.

I guess that could change as monero is now more than half the price of litecoin. So that perspective could change pretty quickly.

We'll see.

[vuduchyld]

About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.

Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!

I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.

Very cool.  Thanks for sharing your experience.

[25hashcoin]

Word is that the chinese don't consider litecoin to be an altcoin. They just see bitcoin and litecoin and then the rest. Litecoin is also the only other coin besides bitcoin on the major chinese exchanges. This is enough for me to keep some of my hodlings in ltc for the time being. Much more room for profit than btc, and it still hasn't shown that it will be decoupled from btcs next moves. Very long term, I am not sure as no one is, but worst case I figure I will be able to increase my btc and xmr hodlings.

I guess that could change as monero is now more than half the price of litecoin. So that perspective could change pretty quickly.

We'll see.

The next crypto bubble so to speak will be quite interesting. I've always felt like xmr more or less follows btc (nothing to prove or show for this) so xmr could easily bring in exponential more profits than ltc, just as ltc could bring exponential more profits than bitcoin. Loooong term I definitely think btc is #1, xmr is #2,  and ltc is #3 though. I've declared them the "big 3" for quite a while now and will be very exciting to see xmr overtake doge as the #3 coin in cryptoland (premined/ipo coins need not apply).

[Melbustus]

Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp

...
Theory is nice, but when the theory doesn't match reality, adjust the theory.
...

Or make a wager with people who have different theories. I believe I offered such a bet to Smoothie a while back, when LTC was trading >0.01BTC if memory serves.


And FWIW - I consider the crypto-markets to be extremely immature, to the point where it's still very difficult to discern signal from noise looking over the entire history to date. Thus I'm certainly not abandoning theory at this point. Feel free to quote this in >5 years if Litecoin as a "blue chip" isn't obviously ridiculous by then.

On a related note, it's been a theory of mine (and many others') for years that Bitcoin would remain strong in the face of alt-coin competition due in part to the idea that Bitcoin could and would adopt good innovations from the alt-space. But this is a theory that I'm listening to the conflicting data on, and am not so sure about any more, as Core dev and their narrow-minded high-hashrate supporters show that perhaps Bitcoin really isn't as strong and anti-fragile as I'd believed.

[smooth]

Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp

...
Theory is nice, but when the theory doesn't match reality, adjust the theory.
...

Or make a wager with people who have different theories. I believe I offered such a bet to Smoothie a while back, when LTC was trading >0.01BTC if memory serves.


And FWIW - I consider the crypto-markets to be extremely immature, to the point where it's still very difficult to discern signal from noise looking over the entire history to date. Thus I'm certainly not abandoning theory at this point. Feel free to quote this in >5 years if Litecoin as a "blue chip" isn't obviously ridiculous by then.

On a related note, it's been a theory of mine (and many others') for years that Bitcoin would remain strong in the face of alt-coin competition due in part to the idea that Bitcoin could and would adopt good innovations from the alt-space. But this is a theory that I'm listening to the conflicting data on, and am not so sure about any more, as Core dev and their narrow-minded high-hashrate supporters show that perhaps Bitcoin really isn't as strong and anti-fragile as I'd believed.

From my perspective, Bitcoin has remained strong, even considering recent events. There has just been room for other coins to thrive as well. Pretty much what iCEBREAKER said about the crypto pie growing rapidly, where one slice becoming bigger does not make another slice smaller.

If your theory was that Bitcoin was just going to streamroller over all other communities and simply assimilate all innovation and market development, well that theory does need some reexamination (and LTC is very much valid evidence for this not happening, among others of course), at least so far.

[owm123]

The next crypto bubble so to speak will be quite interesting. I've always felt like xmr more or less follows btc (nothing to prove or show for this) so xmr could easily bring in exponential more profits than ltc, just as ltc could bring exponential more profits than bitcoin. Loooong term I definitely think btc is #1, xmr is #2,  and ltc is #3 though. I've declared them the "big 3" for quite a while now and will be very exciting to see xmr overtake doge as the #3 coin in cryptoland (premined/ipo coins need not apply).

You assume eth will be gone out of picture, or just not count it here as it aims at differer use case then a normal currency?

[25hashcoin]

You assume eth will be gone out of picture, or just not count it here as it aims at differer use case then a normal currency?

Both long term. Latter for short term.

see:
(premined/ipo coins need not apply)

[Melbustus]

...
If your theory was that Bitcoin was just going to streamroller over all other communities and simply assimilate all innovation and market development, well that theory does need some reexamination (and LTC is very much valid evidence for this not happening, among others of course), at least so far.

No, I've also noted for a couple years that I think a number of coins will co-exist with non-trivial market-caps, though I think it'll be a power-law type effect where the top few have almost all the market-cap, and where the top-1 - in prior instances of the theory, always Bitcoin - has a very large majority.

[iCEBREAKER]

Litecoin as "blue-chip" coin. lol, #timestamp

...
Theory is nice, but when the theory doesn't match reality, adjust the theory.
...

Or make a wager with people who have different theories. I believe I offered such a bet to Smoothie a while back, when LTC was trading >0.01BTC if memory serves.

And FWIW - I consider the crypto-markets to be extremely immature, to the point where it's still very difficult to discern signal from noise looking over the entire history to date. Thus I'm certainly not abandoning theory at this point. Feel free to quote this in >5 years if Litecoin as a "blue chip" isn't obviously ridiculous by then.

On a related note, it's been a theory of mine (and many others') for years that Bitcoin would remain strong in the face of alt-coin competition due in part to the idea that Bitcoin could and would adopt good innovations from the alt-space. But this is a theory that I'm listening to the conflicting data on, and am not so sure about any more, as Core dev and their narrow-minded high-hashrate supporters show that perhaps Bitcoin really isn't as strong and anti-fragile as I'd believed.

From my perspective, Bitcoin has remained strong, even considering recent events. There has just been room for other coins to thrive as well. Pretty much what iCEBREAKER said about the crypto pie growing rapidly, where once slice becoming bigger does not make another slice smaller.

If your theory was that Bitcoin was just going to streamroller over all other communities and simply assimilate all innovation and market development, well that theory does need some reexamination (and LTC is very much valid evidence for this not happening, among others of course), at least so far.

If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?

This logic is almost universally applied to gold and silver in terms of fiat, AEON and BBR/XDN in terms of Monero, generators and batteries in terms of COLOs/hospitals, etc.

When appeals to argumentum ad Las Vegas wagering are made, we may take that as indication Melbustus' mind is made up and does not wish to be confused with facts, whether empirical or analytical.  When his theory doesn't match reality, he'd rather move the goalposts 5 years into the future than check his (obviously flawed) premises.   

Le sigh.  I suppose we should welcome the LTC and BTC obituary writers into our ever-expanding Monero tent, as an auspicious sign of our community's growing diversity.  Who else is ready to lean into Monero's Eternal September?  I'll throw the first handful of dirt on our little Golden Age of Wild & Free Mustang Enlightenment...AP can carry the torch from here. 

On a side note, I can't believe Smoothie is being so nice about the LTC smack talk!   

I guess he's in a good mood, what with the XMR moon and all.  Or there's more drama/history to the wager than Mel alluded to....