[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

Probably going to see some consolidation here, price right now is between fibs from last years pump and the original polo pump. I expect a lot of liquidity here.

Indeed this is when coins change hands.  The future is interesting.

[cAPSLOCK]

Probably going to see some consolidation here, price right now is between fibs from last years pump and the original polo pump. I expect a lot of liquidity here.

Like over 3500 BTC daily volume on Polo? Too late.

that was to get us up to the liquidity pool, not past it.

Sorry, but I just cannot take TA very seriously on a market the size of XMR. I suppose if enough participants are chartists it might work a bit by herd movement.

This isn't pure T/A per say.  There are a lot of old time XMR bagholders who are going to be selling in this range. 

Some of us will stay around too.

[birr]

There are a lot of old time XMR bagholders who are going to be selling in this range.  

Some of us will stay around too.

Ha.  I bought some at .007 in the initial pump.  I've been holding on to those coins the whole time.
Sell now?  Don't think so.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I'd make an original music video, but I did one for BTM and ended up bagholding

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl4rnEguL2w

Perhaps you could make a Monero Bagholder blues (inspirarion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmAPw7QkTpA ).  
And the other piece of music a rock'n'roll style for times like these of green dildos so we have music vids for both extremes: Pumps and dumps.

[vuduchyld]

I'd make an original music video, but I did one for BTM and ended up bagholding

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl4rnEguL2w

Perhaps you could make a Monero Bagholder blues (inspirarion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmAPw7QkTpA ).  
And the other piece of music a rock'n'roll style for times like these of green dildos so we have music vids for both extremes: Pumps and dumps.

Great idea!  Hedge my bets a little that way, too, so I'm not the pure crypto kiss of death!

[Hueristic]

If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?

Your "LTC as a backup" argument has never made sense to me.

LTC would fail as a backup because it offers no security balance, and will suffer the same hypothetical fate as its bigger brother. Think about it: if the bitcoin network were suddenly brought to its knees, how would anyone be safer in LTC?

AEON backing up XMR is equally absurd.

I'm no LTC fan (as it has lost it's initial goal, ASIC resistance) but I see where it could survive where BTC would fail as it is still far more decentralized. I really think they should hard fork to a ASIC/GPU resistant algo though. Just in doing it once would show that they would be willing to do it again if ASIC's are designed for it again. But I think that bus has left the station and in the coming years LTC will be right where BTC is now. Doge merged-mining has really helped them though I would say as far as security goes but I don't see that happening again any time soon and will become m00t when difficulty gets high enough.

Yeah, Aeon backing up XMR is an absurd thought. What Aeon should do right now to set itself apart and become a contender for an actual usable currency is... I'm not going to say unless I decide to get in it.

[Monerobuyer0]

If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?

Your "LTC as a backup" argument has never made sense to me.

LTC would fail as a backup because it offers no security balance, and will suffer the same hypothetical fate as its bigger brother. Think about it: if the bitcoin network were suddenly brought to its knees, how would anyone be safer in LTC?

AEON backing up XMR is equally absurd.

I'm no LTC fan (as it has lost it's initial goal, ASIC resistance) but I see where it could survive where BTC would fail as it is still far more decentralized. I really think they should hard fork to a ASIC/GPU resistant algo though. Just in doing it once would show that they would be willing to do it again if ASIC's are designed for it again. But I think that bus has left the station and in the coming years LTC will be right where BTC is now. Doge merged-mining has really helped them though I would say as far as security goes but I don't see that happening again any time soon and will become m00t when difficulty gets high enough.

Yeah, Aeon backing up XMR is an absurd thought. What Aeon should do right now to set itself apart and become a contender for an actual usable currency is... I'm not going to say unless I decide to get in it.

1% of your XMR gets you into Aeon for the same stake.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?

Your "LTC as a backup" argument has never made sense to me.

LTC would fail as a backup because it offers no security balance, and will suffer the same hypothetical fate as its bigger brother. Think about it: if the bitcoin network were suddenly brought to its knees, how would anyone be safer in LTC?

AEON backing up XMR is equally absurd.

I'm no LTC fan (as it has lost it's initial goal, ASIC resistance) but I see where it could survive where BTC would fail as it is still far more decentralized. I really think they should hard fork to a ASIC/GPU resistant algo though. Just in doing it once would show that they would be willing to do it again if ASIC's are designed for it again. But I think that bus has left the station and in the coming years LTC will be right where BTC is now. Doge merged-mining has really helped them though I would say as far as security goes but I don't see that happening again any time soon and will become m00t when difficulty gets high enough.

Yeah, Aeon backing up XMR is an absurd thought. What Aeon should do right now to set itself apart and become a contender for an actual usable currency is... I'm not going to say unless I decide to get in it.

1% of your XMR gets you into Aeon for the same stake.

I also think that it is unlikely that Aeon will ever obtain significant market usage? Is it worth a 1% XMR hedge? In my opinion, absolutely. If something goes wrong with the RingCT XMR fork (very unlikely but always possible), it is nice to have a solid CryptoNote backup network.

For network security I would suggest mining Aeon (solo mine) instead of buying.

[tifozi]

Based on BTC price fluctuations in the second half (especially last quarter) of 2015, I expect an inverse relationship with respect to XMR price. A significant portion of XMR owners currently seem to be into trading more than holding. Most traders were eager to get into BTC even for measly BTC rises during the last 5-6 months and unfortunately they determine the short term prices. There is indeed a herd mentality that was demonstrated recently.

XMR developments could potentially change the trend of course. ETH will probably nosedive a lot harder than XMR with a BTC rise. They stole the hedging spot from XMR that was enjoyed by XMR in 2014-early15.

[lolikop]

low volume no selling weekend breakout coming

[hitchingAride]

^I hope you are right but if I was to guess I think we already finished our breakout and will have a week of consolidation but regardless I'm super long on xmr and will be holding every last one.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?

Your "LTC as a backup" argument has never made sense to me.

LTC would fail as a backup because it offers no security balance, and will suffer the same hypothetical fate as its bigger brother. Think about it: if the bitcoin network were suddenly brought to its knees, how would anyone be safer in LTC?

AEON backing up XMR is equally absurd.

I also mentioned BBR/XCN as possible/logical XMR backups, yet you pointedly failed to mention them.  Any reason for that omission?

No reason. BBR and XCN would be just as unsuitable. I'm not commenting on the merits of any coin, just stating whether or not I think they'd make a suitable backup.

Sorry, I can't parse "security balance" or understand why such a thing would overrule the market, which has put the upper bound of LTC value at something over $30 each and consistently awards LTC a market cap in the $100s of millions.

LTC uses a different blockchain and proof-of-work and github (etc) than BTC; why wouldn't it be safer when BTC black-swans?

If by "etc" you mean "nothing else" then I agree with you. LTC has a different proof-of-work. Any black swan event unrelated to the PoW and LTC is equally vulnerable.

A suitable backup would be a cryptocurrency that shares none of Bitcoin's code, uses a different PoW, and doesn't depend on Secp256k1. Are there any non-scam, transparent-chain coins with those characteristics? I honestly don't know/never checked.

Were you here that time BTC has an itsy-bitsy little chain fork and LTC instantly absorbed the FUD?  I was, and so were a lot of other people.  We're not going to forget that, no matter how impressively many zeros BTC adds to its uptime.

Then there is the fact many (especially in China) see BTC and LTC as Coke and Pepsi.  They don't need to understand my "LTC as a backup argument" because they don't even see LTC as an altcoin.

Obviously the market sees value in LTC. I'm not disagreeing with you on that. I only disagree that LTC would make a suitable backup to Bitcoin.

Since you can't tell us how Bitcoin is going to fail, please don't presume to also assert that unknown, theoretical failure mode would necessarily be occupied by Litecoin or any (non-merged-mined) altcoin as well.

Of course I can't predict how Bitcoin might fail, which is why I wouldn't choose a coin that's 95% identical to serve as a backup. And yes, considering how similar they are, I will presume that any theoretical failure in Bitcoin will also affect LTC.

[smooth]

A suitable backup would be a cryptocurrency that shares none of Bitcoin's code, uses a different PoW, and doesn't depend on Secp256k1. Are there any non-scam, transparent-chain coins with those characteristics? I honestly don't know/never checked.

Most cryptonote coins, including Monero before the fork, could be used in that manner by just not using mix >0 (or indeed a trivial fork could be created that would disable mix >0). In practice most of them have predominantly been used in that manner.

Hmm, maybe such a fork is actually worth creating?

EDIT: You would still have stealth addresses, but that could be effectively disabled by using receiver-chosen-r. That gives you output public keys that are similar to Bitcoin addresses (but not reusable). I'm sure additional tweaks could be made if desired.

[TrueCryptonaire]

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

[americanpegasus]

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

[Mystogan]

I want to buy few hundred XMR but is this the right time to buy them?

[TrueCryptonaire]

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

The way I am able to do it is to lend higher rate but max term (60 days). And then feed the beast slowly slowly. It is surprising how many borrower will keep the short position open the max period despite the fact that the price goes agains him.

I would wish Monero community (or someone credible) would start some kind of investment fund which collects fiat money in form of dividend, rental income etc. passive forms and once the payment in fiat has arrived to bank account, they will instaconverted into Monero and the members of the funds own certain shares according to their initial investment... In that way, Monero gets constantly demand from fiat world and more and more fiat money is channeled towards Monero economy and thus sets some upside pressure to the price of Monero (a little bit similar idea as NXT - they have cashcows which basically gives the demand for coin. Monero is kind of store of value so it could ideally fit into this purpose).

[iCEBREAKER]

low volume no selling weekend breakout coming

[TrueCryptonaire]

I want to buy few hundred XMR but is this the right time to buy them?

Always right time.
However, if you are afraid the dump, then buy 1-5 % of your goal everyday and thus you will end up buying the average price always pretty close to the spot. If the price drops, your average price declines as you get more coins abd if the price goes up your average price goes up also (but that doesn't matter since the coins you bought earlier are appreciating as well).

[americanpegasus]

The way I am able to do it is to lend higher rate but max term (60 days). And then feed the beast slowly slowly. It is surprising how many borrower will keep the short position open the max period despite the fact that the price goes agains him.

Coming from someone who loves margin gambling, I can tell you the mind of a margin gambler: they don't give a shit about rates.  If I am going margin long, I expect to make >5% profit within 2 or 3 days and therefore don't mind paying exorbitant rates.  I'm not saying that is a right state of mind - I am just telling you the average borrower's mindset.  In fact, many who use margin short and long don't even check the rates before they borrow and since Poloniex defaults to 2% max, travesties of lending are quite possible. 
 
Any idea why lending got so lucrative a few days ago and what conditions might make it so lucrative again?