[XMR] Monero Speculation

[luigi1111]

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR?

Nice play on words there ArticMine, but you know well that I am not knocking on the tech or development work (some dev personalities, maybe, but I am appreciative of work).

smfuser, seems like you have been suckered into this coin, so you may not know the complete 2 year history. You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

Seems to me "dump city" is likely to correspond quite well with the emission (haven't tried to fit the two together, just speculating).

Alienating significant audience in bitcointalk and potential backers due to abrasive trutherism in the forums and social media had nothing to do with it.  After all there are no other chains with more coins emitted already with more value/coin right? 

XMR has an emission schedule on the aggressive side, thus has (and has had for its entire life) plenty of new supply for miners to sell. This will slowly change as more are emitted. Whether price will follow is of course another matter entirely.

This is probably (tm) unrelated to any "abrasive trutherism", though I don't discount that such has had some effect on historical pricing. Everyone on (the great) Bitcointalk being friendly unicorns and existing in perfect harmony wouldn't have had much effect on the new daily supply available to sell, however.

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[GreekBitcoin]

Alienating significant audience in bitcointalk and potential backers due to abrasive trutherism in the forums and social media had nothing to do with it.  After all there are no other chains with more coins emitted already with more value/coin right? 

I dont think that this is the reason but in the case it is:
There are many many other choices for that significant audience and those potential backers. Please let this one for those that prefer truth than bullshit. And i am sure when and if time comes, they will hop on again or regret it.

[dEBRUYNE]

A fond goodbye to our friend and contributor, warptangent

https://forum.getmonero.org/1/news-announcements-and-editorials/2519/a-fond-goodbye-to-our-friend-and-contributor-warptangent

R.I.P.

[griffen1102]

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR?

Nice play on words there ArticMine, but you know well that I am not knocking on the tech or development work (some dev personalities, maybe, but I am appreciative of work).

smfuser, seems like you have been suckered into this coin, so you may not know the complete 2 year history. You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

You mean the chart oscillates in price? I'm shocked. Nice try slapper

[Monerobuyer0]

Some in this thread complained that the price drop this weekend was large Monero holders dumping on the little guys.  I have to disagree.

What we saw this weekend was not a whale dumping, it was the unwinding of Monero margin long positions, triggered by a $10 rise in BTC which spooked the longs into selling.  Yes, there were a lot of Monero shorts open, but there were probably even more longs, as various traders were gambling on the price movement. 

The initial BTC rise spooked some traders into dumping their margin long, and the drop put others into margin calls and they sold as well, and it continued down to 321k, at which point pretty much everyone with a risky margin position had dumped already.

Monero performed worse in the 'altcoin crash' that some of the other alts because it had more margin long positions open than them, due to recent price rises and bullishness, so once the panic selling started, it had more selling pressure. 


This does not imply that Monero whales were dumping.  It does not make sense that Risto or some other Monero whale who has a lot of btc would panic at a $10 btc rise, and dump his Monero.  It makes complete sense that some daytraders, or should I say gamblers, who were betting on Monero were put into margin call territory and panic sold.  Complaining that the monero whales do not protect the little folks and dump on them is incorrect.

We have unloaded a bunch of margin longs and traders from the Monero train now.  It also seems that we got a lot of shorts out of Monero as well, so deleveraging has occurred. 

The coin is not 'in the wrong hands', and we do not 'need zcash', which is an absurd comment because zcash is a premine while Monero is a fair distribution, and all of the Monero holders either paid for it or mined for it, and do not have coins that they can dump at any price and still profit.

[bitjedi]

Some in this thread complained that the price drop this weekend was large Monero holders dumping on the little guys.  I have to disagree.

What we saw this weekend was not a whale dumping, it was the unwinding of Monero margin long positions, triggered by a $10 rise in BTC which spooked the longs into selling.  Yes, there were a lot of Monero shorts open, but there were probably even more longs, as various traders were gambling on the price movement. 

The initial BTC rise spooked some traders into dumping their margin long, and the drop put others into margin calls and they sold as well, and it continued down to 321k, at which point pretty much everyone with a risky margin position had dumped already.

Monero performed worse in the 'altcoin crash' that some of the other alts because it had more margin long positions open than them, due to recent price rises and bullishness, so once the panic selling started, it had more selling pressure. 


This does not imply that Monero whales were dumping.  It does not make sense that Risto or some other Monero whale who has a lot of btc would panic at a $10 btc rise, and dump his Monero.  It makes complete sense that some daytraders, or should I say gamblers, who were betting on Monero were put into margin call territory and panic sold.  Complaining that the monero whales do not protect the little folks and dump on them is incorrect.

We have unloaded a bunch of margin longs and traders from the Monero train now.  It also seems that we got a lot of shorts out of Monero as well, so deleveraging has occurred. 

I agree with this evaluation.  The drop was precipitated by the quick rise in BTC and the margin longs disappearing quickly.  The consensus is that BTC is going to have a mega bull run if it breaks this wedge that's been forming for the past year to the upside.  We got right to the upper limit of the wedge in a few minutes in BTC so if I was short BTC long anything else, I would be really scared.  However, most whales don't need the silly margin to trade and so they technically short BTC from their own BTC holdings, but not leveraged long and do not need to sell into panic.

Personally, I think XMR will go up in value if BTC also goes up.  The coin seems to be missing a few big features to get it more mainstream adoption.  Friendly GUI wallet, marketing budget, and simplified instructions for non-technical people to use it.  Technically, it seems superior to all other coins out there from an underlying technology standpoint.

--- On another note, has anyone actually got Lightwallet to work?  Is the default http://node.moneroclub.com:8880 node even working?

[Febo]

Some in this thread complained that the price drop this weekend was large Monero holders dumping on the little guys.  I have to disagree.

What we saw this weekend was not a whale dumping, it was the unwinding of Monero margin long positions, triggered by a $10 rise in BTC which spooked the longs into selling.  Yes, there were a lot of Monero shorts open, but there were probably even more longs, as various traders were gambling on the price movement. 

The initial BTC rise spooked some traders into dumping their margin long, and the drop put others into margin calls and they sold as well, and it continued down to 321k, at which point pretty much everyone with a risky margin position had dumped already.

Monero performed worse in the 'altcoin crash' that some of the other alts because it had more margin long positions open than them, due to recent price rises and bullishness, so once the panic selling started, it had more selling pressure. 


This does not imply that Monero whales were dumping.  It does not make sense that Risto or some other Monero whale who has a lot of btc would panic at a $10 btc rise, and dump his Monero.  It makes complete sense that some daytraders, or should I say gamblers, who were betting on Monero were put into margin call territory and panic sold.  Complaining that the monero whales do not protect the little folks and dump on them is incorrect.

We have unloaded a bunch of margin longs and traders from the Monero train now.  It also seems that we got a lot of shorts out of Monero as well, so deleveraging has occurred. 

The coin is not 'in the wrong hands', and we do not 'need zcash', which is an absurd comment because zcash is a premine while Monero is a fair distribution, and all of the Monero holders either paid for it or mined for it, and do not have coins that they can dump at any price and still profit.

It makes sense since all high volume alts that are traded on Poloniex were starting selling at same point of time.  But is that expected at $10 price raise?  2%?   I see such price movement almost every second day.

[wpalczynski]

Some in this thread complained that the price drop this weekend was large Monero holders dumping on the little guys.  I have to disagree.

What we saw this weekend was not a whale dumping, it was the unwinding of Monero margin long positions, triggered by a $10 rise in BTC which spooked the longs into selling.  Yes, there were a lot of Monero shorts open, but there were probably even more longs, as various traders were gambling on the price movement. 

The initial BTC rise spooked some traders into dumping their margin long, and the drop put others into margin calls and they sold as well, and it continued down to 321k, at which point pretty much everyone with a risky margin position had dumped already.

Monero performed worse in the 'altcoin crash' that some of the other alts because it had more margin long positions open than them, due to recent price rises and bullishness, so once the panic selling started, it had more selling pressure. 


This does not imply that Monero whales were dumping.  It does not make sense that Risto or some other Monero whale who has a lot of btc would panic at a $10 btc rise, and dump his Monero.  It makes complete sense that some daytraders, or should I say gamblers, who were betting on Monero were put into margin call territory and panic sold.  Complaining that the monero whales do not protect the little folks and dump on them is incorrect.

We have unloaded a bunch of margin longs and traders from the Monero train now.  It also seems that we got a lot of shorts out of Monero as well, so deleveraging has occurred. 

The coin is not 'in the wrong hands', and we do not 'need zcash', which is an absurd comment because zcash is a premine while Monero is a fair distribution, and all of the Monero holders either paid for it or mined for it, and do not have coins that they can dump at any price and still profit.

Plausible theory.  By the way, the guy whos stated assumptions you are responding to is just trolling I think.  I believe Monero has a very diverse distribution which gets more diverse with every "Whale Dump" as the troll called it.

[wpalczynski]

Some in this thread complained that the price drop this weekend was large Monero holders dumping on the little guys.  I have to disagree.

What we saw this weekend was not a whale dumping, it was the unwinding of Monero margin long positions, triggered by a $10 rise in BTC which spooked the longs into selling.  Yes, there were a lot of Monero shorts open, but there were probably even more longs, as various traders were gambling on the price movement. 

The initial BTC rise spooked some traders into dumping their margin long, and the drop put others into margin calls and they sold as well, and it continued down to 321k, at which point pretty much everyone with a risky margin position had dumped already.

Monero performed worse in the 'altcoin crash' that some of the other alts because it had more margin long positions open than them, due to recent price rises and bullishness, so once the panic selling started, it had more selling pressure. 


This does not imply that Monero whales were dumping.  It does not make sense that Risto or some other Monero whale who has a lot of btc would panic at a $10 btc rise, and dump his Monero.  It makes complete sense that some daytraders, or should I say gamblers, who were betting on Monero were put into margin call territory and panic sold.  Complaining that the monero whales do not protect the little folks and dump on them is incorrect.

We have unloaded a bunch of margin longs and traders from the Monero train now.  It also seems that we got a lot of shorts out of Monero as well, so deleveraging has occurred. 

I agree with this evaluation.  The drop was precipitated by the quick rise in BTC and the margin longs disappearing quickly.  The consensus is that BTC is going to have a mega bull run if it breaks this wedge that's been forming for the past year to the upside.  We got right to the upper limit of the wedge in a few minutes in BTC so if I was short BTC long anything else, I would be really scared.  However, most whales don't need the silly margin to trade and so they technically short BTC from their own BTC holdings, but not leveraged long and do not need to sell into panic.

Personally, I think XMR will go up in value if BTC also goes up.  The coin seems to be missing a few big features to get it more mainstream adoption.  Friendly GUI wallet, marketing budget, and simplified instructions for non-technical people to use it.  Technically, it seems superior to all other coins out there from an underlying technology standpoint.

--- On another note, has anyone actually got Lightwallet to work?  Is the default http://node.moneroclub.com:8880 node even working?

Lightwallet works fine for me.  If that node is down you can point it to your own daemon.

[Monerobuyer0]

It makes sense since all high volume alts that are traded on Poloniex were starting selling at same point of time.  But is that expected at $10 price raise?  2%?   I see such price movement almost every second day.

I think a lot more gamblers has decided to gamble on Monero by going margin long than usual prior to this weekend, which is why Monero got hit especially hard.  Its possible that they went margin long Monero based on the Azure news, driving us from 350k to 420k.  They were then all forced out at once in a panic, temporarily pushing us down further than would result from an orderly selloff.

I prefer it when Monero is not held by gamblers, but rather by those who intend to hold it long term, so this looks like a nicer time to buy, now that most of them got wiped out.

[Febo]

It makes sense since all high volume alts that are traded on Poloniex were starting selling at same point of time.  But is that expected at $10 price raise?  2%?   I see such price movement almost every second day.

I think a lot more gamblers has decided to gamble on Monero by going margin long than usual prior to this weekend, which is why Monero got hit especially hard.  Its possible that they went margin long Monero based on the Azure news, driving us from 350k to 420k.  They were then all forced out at once in a panic, temporarily pushing us down further than would result from an orderly selloff.

I prefer it when Monero is not held by gamblers, but rather by those who intend to hold it long term, so this looks like a nicer time to buy, now that most of them got wiped out.

You didn't answered my question but bitjedi did.

The drop was precipitated by the quick rise in BTC and the margin longs disappearing quickly.  The consensus is that BTC is going to have a mega bull run if it breaks this wedge that's been forming for the past year to the upside.  We got right to the upper limit of the wedge in a few minutes in BTC so if I was short BTC long anything else, I would be really scared. 

It is possible that a bit then 24h ago people panicked there will be a BTC mega bull run and they tried to get as much BTC as they could at as low price as possible.

But even if that was a case, I still think there is  high possibility all that volume was made just by small group of traders with lots of BTC that works close together.

All alts and also Bitcoin is in part held by gamblers or speculators. Simply because holding them is a speculation.  That is not just bad. But also have positive effect. Speculators and day traders raise volume. While trying to get profit they manipulate market and make it more volatile. That brings more attention to the coin from possible future supporters.   Bitcoin would not have today's strength if there wouldn't be December 2014. And without speculators Dec.2014 would not happen.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Guys, I want to calm down. I am still bullish on Monero and historically that has been a good sign. I have been bearish for so long time which made me perhaps the most hated person in this thread, but also I have been right thanks to my bearishness for so long time.
I am still looking forward to BTC-XMR parity which we will reach probably in the years to come step by step. Time to start stocking Moneros again.

[CrowdWhale]

I think the bottom is in. Longs have been squeezed out, shorts should be in the process of closing, and new longs will open. Those of you with extra BTC on Polo should be putting in support at 300k.

[aminorex]

Well I, at least, am now full on XMR.  Here's hoping there is more BTC on the side-lines.  I won't lighten up until we pass 420ks again, however long that takes.

My monkey, FWIW, is bullish on XBT\USD, expecting a run-up into July, starting last Friday.  He also wants SPX, gold, and oil to decline for a week or so.

[r0ach]

You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

Marginal costs of botnet miners is nothing, or relatively nothing = dumping intensifies.  It's a disseservice to the honest miners and coin ihhabitants to allow them a gateway into the coin.  Whether this whole CPU friendly algo will pay off in the future in some manner, I have no idea, but it definitely did not in the past for overall coin health.  I think I was mentioning this would happen the 2nd day the coin was released.  

The price would be way higher than now with a GPU advantage algo.  First reason, better network effect because history has shown GPU mining always wins in that regard..  Second reason, the marginal cost blackhole doesn't exist, which is kind of related to the first.

[rdnkjdi]

Man you gotta wonder what they hell is going on with dash ...

[Monerobuyer0]

Man you gotta wonder what they hell is going on with dash ...

Nothing at all.

Some idiot at btc38 accidentally put in an order to buy Dash for 95 btc each, instead of an order to buy at 95 dash per btc.  He spent about 318 btc on 3.353 Dash.  The market of btc/dash on btc38 is very thin, its mostly traded in CNY there.

This trade is greatly impacting coinmarketcap's computation of the Dash price.

Stuff like this happens frequently and never has any lasting impact, exceptfor the guy who got 300 free btc, and the guy who is out 300 btc.

[vuduchyld]

Well I, at least, am now full on XMR.  Here's hoping there is more BTC on the side-lines.  I won't lighten up until we pass 420ks again, however long that takes.

Yup.  Me, too.  I've got more USD on the way to an exchange in case this happens again.  I was loving it.  My only regret was that I didn't have $10K more ready to go as I watched the carnage.

[Arux]

Man you gotta wonder what they hell is going on with dash ...

Nothing at all.

Some idiot at btc38 accidentally put in an order to buy Dash for 95 btc each, instead of an order to buy at 95 dash per btc.  He spent about 318 btc on 3.353 Dash.  The market of btc/dash on btc38 is very thin, its mostly traded in CNY there.

This trade is greatly impacting coinmarketcap's computation of the Dash price.

Stuff like this happens frequently and never has any lasting impact, exceptfor the guy who got 300 free btc, and the guy who is out 300 btc.

via Imgflip Meme Maker

[tifozi]

My monkey, FWIW, is bullish on XBT\USD

Uh-oh, I'm sure XBT hodlers are shaking